Curve Steepening: Buy Banks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • 10’s-2’s Showing Signs of Life – Good for the Banks?

S&P futures are indicating stocks will open at all-time highs today thanks to strong earnings and Fed optimism after President Trump mentioned rate cuts and QE yesterday.

AAPL beat on earnings and revenue in Q1 but also notably revised guidance solidly higher citing improvement in Chinese markets. The company’s shares are trading up roughly 6% in the pre-market.

Most overseas markets are closed for holidays today and the market’s main focus will be the Fed events this afternoon: FOMC Meeting Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET), Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET).

There are a however a few important economic reports that could move markets this morning: ADP Employment Report (E: 180K), ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 55.0), and Construction Spending (E: 0.2%).

Bottom line, the market is looking for more dovish rhetoric out of the Fed today and if Powell delivers, another set of closing highs in U.S. stock indexes is likely.

Will the Fed Cut Rates?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

U.S. futures and most international equity markets were mildly lower overnight after corporate results from GOOGL missed estimates while economic data was mixed.

China’s PMI Manufacturing Index fell to 50.2 from 50.8 in April (but importantly remained above 50, in expansion territory) while the Eurozone Q1 GDP Flash was 1.2% vs. (E) 1.1% year-over-year which helped ease recently rising concerns about weakness in EU growth metrics.

Looking into today’s session, the calendar remains busy however with the FOMC Meeting getting underway, it would take a material surprise in economic data or multiple earnings shocks to really move the market ahead of tomorrow’s Announcement and Powell’s press conference.

Economically, there are four releases to watch this morning: Employment Cost Index (E: 0.7%), S&P Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.3%), Consumer Confidence (E: 127.0) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.7%).

On the earnings front, there are several notable companies releasing reports today including: GE ($0.09), MA ($1.67), BP ($0.68%), GM ($1.09), PFE ($0.76), and STX ($0.72) before the open and AAPL ($2.37) and AMD ($0.05) after the market close.

An Update from Dr. Copper

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Update from Dr. Copper

Futures are little changed following more U.S./China trade optimism and mixed earnings.

President Trump said he expects to host Chinese Premier Xi at the White House “soon” and a trade deal could be signed in June.

Earnings after the bell were mixed at INTC badly missed, while F and AMZN both posted solid numbers.

There was no material economic data overnight.

Today should be a generally quiet day as the volume of earnings reports subsides (reports we’re watching include XOM ($0.75), AAL ($0.50) and CVX ($1.26)) and are just two economic reports: Preliminary Q1 ‘19 GDP (E: 2.2%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 97.1).  If GDP is a bad miss (which is unlikely) that might temporarily pressure stocks, but really markets are already looking ahead to next week, which is absolutely full of important macro events and continued earnings.

Earnings Season Takeaway (Mild Positive)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Earnings Season Early Takeaway (Mildly Positive)
  • Sector Winners From a U.S./China Trade Deal Announcement (It’s Coming Any Day Now)
  • EIA and Oil Market Update

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night as earnings remain in focus.  Economic data was sparse overnight and isn’t moving markets.

Results after hours Wednesday were good as FB and MSFT both beat estimates, although that’s being offset partially by ugly MMM results this morning.

Today there are two notable economic reports, Durable Goods (E: 0.8%) and Jobless Claims (E: 209K) and it’ll be important to see some sort of stabilization in business spending via Durable Goods.

But, the real focus today will remain on earnings, as we get several important reports.  If numbers are good in aggregate, this rally can continue.  Some earnings we’re watching include – Pre-Open: UPS ($1.42), MMM ($2.50), MO ($0.92).  After the Close: AMZN ($4.72), INTC ($0.87), SBUX ($0.56).

The Case for Healthcare

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Case for Healthcare

Stock futures are flat as yesterday’s melt-up rally to new all-time closing highs in the U.S. is digested while overseas markets were mixed amid underwhelming economic data.

The German Ifo Survey for April missed on both the Economic Sentiment and Current Conditions components but slightly beat on Business Expectations. On balance the report validates ongoing concerns about the EU economy.

There are no economic reports due out in the U.S. today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak which will leave investors focused on the busy earnings calendar this week.

Notable earnings releases today include: BA ($3.11), CAT ($2.84) and T ($0.85) before the open, and FB ($1.65), MSFT ($1.00), PYPL ($0.67) and V ($1.24) after the close.

Tom Essaye Interviewed with Bloomberg’s Daybreak Asia on April 22, 2019

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Tom Essaye joined Doug Krizner and David Ingles on Daybreak Asia to discuss markets, inflation, Fed and more. Click here to listen to the entire interview.

Tyler Richey Quoted in Bloomberg on April 22, 2019

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“It’s been made clear that Trump is very serious about enforcement of the sanctions,” said said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. “The question is how much will their exports fall versus how much and how quickly can Saudi Arabia and other…Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on April 19, 2019

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Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch on April 19, 2019. The $33 billion deal “refocused the energy markets on the U.S. shale industry…and Russia took notice as the nation’s finance minister…” Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey Quoted in Barron’s on April 18, 2019

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Tyler Richey Quoted in Barron’s on April 18, 2019. The $33 billion deal “refocused the energy markets on the U.S. shale industry…and Russia took notice as the nation’s finance minister…” Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey Quoted in Bloomberg on on April 12, 2019

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“There’s not many people who are willing to short this market. We could be near a market top…” Tyler Richey quoted in Bloomberg. Click here to read the full article.

Tyler Richey