Market Outlook: Positive News, but Investor Complacency is Surging

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Outlook: Positive News, but Investor Complacency is Surging
  • Weekly Market Preview: Tariff Updates – Is TACO Still Valid?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Focus on the Labor Market This Week

Futures are moderately lower on an increase in trade anxiety as the July 9th reciprocal tariff deadline approaches.

President Trump threatened a 10% tariff for any countries that align with “anti-American” BRIC policies and that is reminding investors of ever-present trade tensions.

On reciprocal tariffs, Secretary Bessent said tariff rates won’t increase until August 1st but several countries would be notified of higher tariff rates this week.

Economically, UK retail sales & German IP beat estimates.

Today there are no economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will be on trade headlines.  Any reports of any more trade “deals” ahead of the July 9th deadline will be a positive for markets and help stocks recoup these early losses.

 

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Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Would New Highs in the Dow Be Positive for Stocks? (Not Necessarily)

Futures are little changed as markets await today’s important jobs report.

Politically, the Big, Beautiful Bill made more progress in the House overnight and it is expected to pass by July 4th (although this expected so it’s not a market moving event).

Economically, both EU and UK Composite PMIs beat expectations, pushing back growth fears in those regions.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 110K Job-Adds, 4.3% UE Rate, 0.3% Wages.  Given yesterday’s soft ADP report, the stronger the number, the better as it’ll push back on slowdown fears.  Other important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 240K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and, again, better than expected numbers will be welcomed by the markets.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker: Bostic (11:00 a.m. ET) but he shouldn’t move markets.

FOMO Kicks In as More Stocks Join the Rally | Tom Essaye Sees Room to Run

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Improving market breadth may fuel the next leg higher, says Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye

More Stocks Join the Surge, Signaling More Upside Ahead

The U.S. stock market is showing signs of broadening strength as more sectors join the rally that began with tech. According to Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, that’s a signal there may still be more upside ahead—as long as conditions remain stable.

“The market still has plenty of room to rise,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

In a recent interview with Wallstreet Insight, Essaye explained that this surge in market breadth—the number of individual stocks participating in the rally—is being driven by investor behavior:

“Investors who missed the historic rally in tech are now looking for opportunities in other sectors. It’s a classic case of FOMO trading.”

As lagging sectors catch up, the foundation of the rally strengthens. If this rotation continues, it could reduce concentration risk and extend the bull run beyond tech leaders.

Also, click here to view the full article, published on July 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Two-Sided Risks)
  • Powell’s Tone Tilts Dovish
  • ISM Manufacturing Data Takeaways
  • Chart – Rise in JOLTS Highlights Labor Market Resilience

Stock futures are slightly higher but well off their overnight highs as traders mull President Trump’s fresh tariff threats (mostly directed at Japan) and await June payrolls data.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2% in May which was a slight negative regarding the outlook for the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak which will leave early focus on today’s June ADP Employment Report (E: 103K) due out ahead of the bell.

Additionally, UNF ($2.12) is due to report earnings (but the release should not materially move markets) and there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Bottom line, with the June jobs report looming tomorrow, a big surprise in the ADP could impact markets while the 4-Month Bill auction could shed light on Fed policy expectations (the more dovish, the better) but today should be a relatively quiet day of positioning into the BLS release barring any new trade war developments.

Wall Street Doubts the Rally — Here’s Why We Don’t

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Sevens Report President Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on What’s Really Driving Stocks Higher

Stocks Are Hitting New Highs and Investors Don’t Believe It

Despite record-breaking highs in the S&P 500, many investors remain skeptical about the sustainability of the rally. In a recent Barron’s feature, Sevens Report President Tom Essaye was quoted outlining four compelling factors supporting continued market strength—from policy stability under the Trump administration to cooling inflation pressures and robust AI-driven momentum. He also breaks down why current stock valuations, when viewed through a forward-looking lens, may not be as stretched as headlines suggest.

Here’s what Tom outlined in the article:

  1. Policy Confidence: Investors are increasingly confident the Trump administration won’t implement policies that damage the economy.

  2. No Stagflation Signs: While tariffs may be inflationary, falling energy and housing costs are helping offset price pressure.

  3. AI Momentum: Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence remains a legitimate growth engine.

  4. Valuation Still Reasonable: 2026 earnings projections paint a much more attractive valuation story—just over 20× forward earnings.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New S&P 500 High Built on Confidence Not Complacency | Sevens Report Cautions What’s Next

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Markets rise on policy optimism, but slowing growth could still derail momentum

New S&P 500 high raises questions on longevity – Sevens Report

The S&P 500 has surged back to its February highs, but according to Sevens Report Research, that strength may be on shakier ground than it appears.

The rally is being driven in part by confidence that the Trump administration won’t materially damage the economy, despite aggressive rhetoric and growing tariff pressures.

“That belief is the foundation upon which the Q2 rebound was built,”
— Sevens Report

Another factor supporting the market: stagflation fears are fading, as falling housing and energy prices help offset inflation from tariffs. Meanwhile, strong economic indicators—like June’s flash PMIs beating expectations—have added to the positive sentiment.

The report also noted that while valuations appear stretched based on 2025 earnings, 2026 estimates suggest a more reasonable 20.8× forward P/E for the S&P 500.

“Analysts are quickly pivoting to using 2026 earnings estimates of $290–$300/share.”

Tech stocks, particularly AI-driven names, remain central to the rally, but Sevens Report warns that not all signals are bullish.

“There are growing signs that the labor market is losing momentum… and this market is making no allowances for a growth scare.”

Mixed jobless claims and the potential for weak PMI data in the week ahead could quickly shift the narrative. With a shortened holiday week ahead, the resilience of this rally may soon be tested.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on June 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Is This Rally Sustainable?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is This Rally Sustainable? It Depends on What You Think About Growth.
  • Chart – The Latest Chicago PMI Points to a Loss of Economic Momentum

Futures are lower, led by TSLA shares and big tech after the latest social-media rift between President Trump and Elon Musk offsets mostly upbeat economic data from overnight while the strong Q2’25 gains are digested.

Economically, China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.3 to 50.4 vs. (E) 49.0 in June while the EU’s final manufacturing PMI edged up from 49.4 to 49.5 vs. (E) 49.4. On the inflation front, the Eurozone HICP Flash (CPI equivalent) rose 0.1% to 2.0% as expected.

Looking into today’s session, there are three noteworthy economic reports to watch: The ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.8), Construction Spending (E: 0.1%), and May JOLTS (E: 7.3 million). Investors will be looking for further evidence of resilience in growth metrics amid tame inflation pressures in order to short up rally-supporting soft landing hopes.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell will speak as part of a panel at an ECB Economic Forum in Portugal at 9:30 a.m. ET and any while he is unlikely to stray from the narrative that the FOMC is in “wait-and-see” mode, any insight on the future policy path could move markets today.

 

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Wall Street Braces for Fallout But Markets May Already Be Looking Past It

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye on Why the U.S. Strike on Iran Might Not Be a New Market Negative

Wall Street Braces for Market Fallout After the U.S. Bombed Iran

Following news that the United States launched a targeted military strike on Iran, global markets reacted with caution. Investors immediately began pricing in higher oil prices, potential stock market volatility, and a stronger U.S. dollar.

Yet not all analysts see the event as a reason to panic.

In comments to Opening Bell Daily, Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye shared why this development may not derail markets—so long as the situation doesn’t escalate further.

“In some ways, this removes a potential unknown from the markets because it was unclear whether the U.S. would strike or not,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye added that unless there’s retaliation or broader conflict, the market may now begin to stabilize. With the decision made and priced in, investor focus may shift back to fundamentals like earnings, Fed policy, and inflation.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Inc.com, published on June 23rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Why Did the S&P 500 Hit A New High? (And Is It Sustainable?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did the S&P 500 Hit A New High?  (And Is It Sustainable?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does the Big, Beautiful Bill Pass and Further Support Growth?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  The Big Three Reports This Week:  Jobs Report (Thurs), ISM Manufacturing & Services PMIs

Futures are modestly higher on further progress on passing the “Big, Beautiful Bill” (which would extend and increase ta cuts, further supporting economic growth).

The “Big Beautiful Bill” passed a key procedural vote over the weekend and passage out of the Senate is expected later today (and it could be law by the end of the week).

Economically, the June Chinese manufacturing and service PMIs were slightly better than expected.

Today there is one economic report (Chicago PMI (E: 42.7)) and two Fed speakers, Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will remain on Washington and if passage of the Big, Beautiful Bill becomes even more likely (meaning it passes the Senate and there’s no major pushback from House members) that should further add to the upward momentum in the market.

The Rally Broadens Beyond Big Tech — Sevens Report Highlights the FOMO Trade

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Tom Essaye says improved breadth shows this market may still have plenty left in the tank

The Stock-Market Rally Is Moving Beyond Big Tech and Investors Are Thrilled

The stock market rally is no longer just a tech story. Recent gains in financial and industrial stocks have pushed one key measure of market breadth to a new high—signaling rising participation across sectors.

That’s a good sign, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, who believes the bull run may have room to run—as long as economic stability holds.

“As long as things can stay stable, then this market is not exhausted by any stretch of the imagination.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye attributes the surge in non-tech names to classic FOMO trading—as investors who missed out on AI and Big Tech now rotate into other sectors.

“Market breadth has improved as investors search for new opportunities in different industries… It’s the FOMO trade.”

Broader participation often strengthens the sustainability of a rally, making this shift in leadership a potentially bullish signal for the months ahead.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on The Wall Street Journal published on June 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.