Does the Warsh Nomination Jeopardize the Rally?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Does the Warsh Nomination Jeopardize the Rally?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Goldilocks Economy Still Rolling?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: “Big Three” Monthly Reports This Week (Including Jobs Friday)

Futures are moderately lower on momentum from Friday’s decline as markets digest the surprise Warsh nomination.

Geopolitical headlines were mixed as the government partially shutdown (but should be brief) while fears of a strike against Iran receded on positive Trump comments.

Economically, Chinese Feb. PMIs missed estimates and both the manufacturing and services PMIs fell below 50.

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.3) as that is the first of the big monthly economic reports, and the stronger the data, the better for stocks.

We also have one Fed speaker today, Bostic (12:30 p.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets (the market just wants to hear from Warsh now)

Earnings continue on, meanwhile, and some key reports today include: DIS ($1.57), PLTR ($0.17), NXPI ($2.93).

 

Market Based Inflation Expectations Post-Fed

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Based Inflation Expectations Post-Fed

Futures are moderately lower on the news that President Trump will nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.

The Warsh nomination is a surprise (Waller and Rieder were the favorites) and he’s not the market’s first choice, as Warsh has been hawkish on the use of QE in the past.

Staying with politics, a deal apparently has been reached to avoid a government shutdown (which is a positive).

Today focus will be on the President’s Fed announcement and, again, while Warsh isn’t a negative for markets, it wasn’t the market’s first choice and that is why we’re seeing profit taking in gold and silver this morning (gold down 3%).

Outside of the Fed, we do get PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and some notable earnings from lenders/credit card companies: SOFI ($0.12) and AXP ($3.55).  Good commentary about consumer spending will be welcomed by the markets.

 

Another “Run Hot” Policy (Weaker Dollar)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Another “Run Hot” Policy (Weaker Dollar)
  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are modestly higher on better than expected mega-cap tech earnings and reduced shutdown risks.

Big tech earnings weren’t perfect but, on balance, were positive as META (up 10% pre-open) and TSLA (up 2% pre-open) beat while MSFT (down 7% pre-open) disappointed.

Shutdown risks fell on reports that President Trump and Senate Minority leader Schumer were close to a deal to extend government funding.

Focus today will be on Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and another round of important earnings.

Potentially market moving reports today include:  AAPL ($2.65), V ($3.14), MA ($4.20), SNDK ($3.31), CAT ($4.67), LMT ($6.24) and BX ($1.52).

 

FOMC Preview

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview – Expected, Dovish-If, and Hawkish-If Scenarios
  • Chart – Silver Goes Parabolic, up 150%+ in Three Months

Futures are trading at record highs ahead of today’s Fed decision as ASML, a top supplier for the global semiconductor industry, posted strong earnings and optimistic guidance overnight, fueling a resurgence in mega-cap tech and growth stocks overnight.

Economically, the German GfK Consumer Climate Index edged up from -26.9 to -24.1 vs. (E) -25.5 but the release did not materially move markets.

There are no notable economic reports today which will leave investors focused on the Fed today with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET and Fed Chair Powell’s Press Conference shortly after at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Beyond the Fed, the first mega-cap U.S. tech companies will release earnings today including MSFT ($3.88), META ($8.32), TSLA ($0.33), and IBM ($4.33). Other noteworthy names releasing quarterly earnings today include: GEV ($3.03), T ($0.46), and PGR ($4.44).

In order for stocks to continue higher, investors will be looking for a benign (dovish-leaning) Fed decision and strong tech earnings like we saw from ASML overnight which would have the potential to power the major indexes further into record territory.

 

Sevens Report Flags Risk of Sharp Reversal in Natural-Gas Prices

/in , /by

Tyler Richey says futures structure and weather trends argue the rally may fade fast.

Natural-gas prices doubled in the last 5 trading sessions. Here are signs a ‘sharp collapse’ may soon unfold.

With the February natural-gas futures contract expiring at the end of Wednesday’s trading session, it will be “critical” to watch the price of the March contract, which is trading at a roughly $2.50 discount to the February contract, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

That leaves the “futures duration curve in a steep backwardation dynamic” — meaning the current price is higher than prices for contracts for delivery further out in the future, Richey told MarketWatch.

The higher near-term prices and lower prices for contracts for delivery in the months ahead also suggest the rally in the February futures contract is based on near-term supply concerns, and “not any longer-term structural market worries of a prolonged supply shortage,” said Sevens Report’s Richey.

At the same time, weather models are forecasting more moderate temperatures in the coming weeks, which should theoretically see the rally in natural-gas prices “subside, assuming there is no lasting damage impacting domestic natural-gas production [and] logistics,” said Richey.

“That could set futures prices up for a sharp collapse in the sessions ahead,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Natural-Gas Market Is Primed For Volatility In The Near Term Says Sevens Report

/in , /by

Warmer weather could easily serve as a catalyst for a significant price drop in natural gas says Tyler Richey.

Natural-gas prices extend their rally, but analysts warn of volatility tied to this week’s contract expiration

The natural-gas market is primed for more volatility in the near term, “with multiple dollar price swings” possible as icy and snowy weather continues to pound the eastern part of the U.S. and as below-average temperatures are expected to linger this week, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. “But the prospects of warmer weather in early February could easily serve as a catalyst for a significant price drop in natural gas, with its futures market traditionally one of the most volatile in the entire commodity complex,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 26th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Warns Early-2026 Inflation Signals Are Flashing Red – Business Insider

/in , /by

Tom Essaye says sector leadership and market rotation echo the painful setup of 2022.

The stock market is flashing a signal that inflation may be poised to spike

Early market action in 2026 is sending a cautionary signal on inflation, according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, who says investors may be underestimating the risk of a difficult year ahead.

Essaye notes that energy and materials stocks have surged more than 9% year to date, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500’s modest gain. Historically, strength in these sectors has often preceded broader inflation pressures, as higher energy and materials costs filter through supply chains and lift prices across the economy.

In Essaye’s view, the move is especially notable because it has received little attention from market participants so far. He argues that energy prices influence nearly every component of global commerce, while materials costs quietly add upward pressure to inflation through higher input expenses. Together, their strong performance is not something investors should dismiss as the first quarter unfolds.

Adding to the concern is a clear shift in market leadership. Essaye highlights a rotation away from mega-cap growth stocks and toward value, small caps, transportation stocks, and equal-weight indexes. Recent outperformance in benchmarks like the S&P 500 equal-weight index, the Russell 2000, and value-focused ETFs suggests that capital is moving toward areas that often lead during more inflationary or unstable periods.

That combination of sector leadership and early-year money flows reminds Essaye of the setup in early 2022, a year that proved especially damaging for traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolios. While he is not calling for an immediate downturn, Essaye cautions that these dynamics raise the risk of a repeat scenario if inflation pressures continue to build.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on January 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Natural Gas Is Clearly In A Weather-Driven Market Dynamic Says Tyler Richey

/in , /by

The fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast says Tyler Richey.

Natural-gas prices see ‘historic’ surge as U.S. braces for winter storm. What that means for heating bills.

To say that natural-gas futures surged on Wednesday would be “an understatement as prices posted a gain of historic magnitude,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, in Thursday’s newsletter. “Natural gas is clearly in a weather-driven market dynamic with fundamental demand driving the price action with the potential for more extreme moves pending further revisions to the forecast.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 23rd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Two Reasons Markets Have Been So Resilient YTD

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Reasons Markets Have Been So Resilient YTD
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on the Fed (Will They Hint at Rate Cuts Later in the Year?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Growth and Inflation Updates

Futures are modestly weaker but have rebounded from steep overnight declines, as more political/policy volatility is weighing on futures.

Government shutdown risks spiked over the weekend following another incident with ICE, while separately, President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canada.

Economically, the only report was German Ifo Business Expectations and it slightly missed estimates.

Today focus will be on Washington via rising government shutdown risks and the tariff threats on Canada.  Any headlines that make a shutdown seem more likely or that tariff threats will actually go through will weigh on markets, while deescalation on both will help fuel a rebound.

Outside of Washington political volatility, there is one economic report today, Durable Goods (E: 3.1%) and some earnings, STLD ($1.72), BKR ($0.67), NUE ($1.82), but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Why YTD Sector Performance Implies Inflation Risks

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why YTD Sector Performance Implies Inflation Risks

Futures are little changed on mixed tech news and as the Bank of Japan decision met expectations.

Tech earnings/news was mixed as Intel missed (INTC down 13% pre-market) but a positive Bloomberg article on Nvidia (NVDA) chip sales to China is offsetting the INTC results.

The Bank of Japan held rates steady but signaled more hikes are coming, as expected (and that kept JGB’s calm).

Focus today will be on economic data and specifically the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.0) and Flash Services PMI (E: 52.8), which are the first national data points for January.  Stability in the data will be welcomed by markets as another reminder of the Goldilocks economy (which is stock positive).

We also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 54.0) and some earnings reports (SLB ($0.74), ERIC ($0.23), BAH ($1.26)) but they shouldn’t move markets.