Year-End Rally or Not? Three Events to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Year-End Rally or Not? Three Events to Watch
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can the Rebound Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Two of the “Big Three” Monthly Economic Reports This Week

Futures are moderately lower following a sharp drop in cryptocurrencies, hawkish Bank of Japan commentary and underwhelming Chinese economic data.

Bitcoin fell 5% as pressure on the crypto space increased, although there was no specific reason for the declines.

BOJ Governor Ueda told markets the BOJ would strongly consider a rate hike at its next meeting, pressuring stocks.

Economically, the Chinese non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 vs. (E) 50.1, the lowest reading in three years.

Today focus will be on the November ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.0) and the key here is stability, specifically that we do not see the PMI “fall away” from 50 and badly miss expectations (if it does, it could be signaling sudden deterioration in the manufacturing sector, which would be a negative economic surprise).

 

Mixed Messages from Jobless Claims Data

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Update: Mixed Messages from Jobless Claims Data

U.S. futures are unavailable after a “cooling issue” caused a failure at a CME data center.

Despite the lack of U.S. futures, global markets are mostly little changed and U.S. futures would likely be also, given the quiet Thanksgiving holiday.

Economically, Japanese economic data was better than expected on Thursday (Industrial Production rose 1.5% vs. (E) -0.5% and Retail Sales gained 1.7% vs. (E) 1.1%), boosting chances for a rate hike.

Today should be a typically quiet post-Thanksgiving trading day, even despite the futures issues.  U.S. markets close at 1:00 p.m.

 

A Chart for Clients: “Buying the Rip” Pays Over Time

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Interesting Chart for Clients – “Buying the Rip” Pays Off Over Time
  • PPI & Retail Sales Takeaways

Stock futures are higher, signaling equities are poised to extend this week’s solid advance, albeit in light holiday trading, as dovish bets for a December Fed rate cut continue to build, supporting risk-on money flows.

There were no market-moving economic reports or noteworthy financial news headlines overnight.

Today should be quiet giving the looming Thanksgiving holiday break tomorrow however there are three economic reports to watch that could impact markets including Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.1%), Jobless Claims (E: 225K), and the Chicago PMI (E: 44.3).

There are no Fed speakers today however there are multiple short-term Treasury Bill auctions this morning and a critical 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and subsequently impact equities and other asset classes (the stronger the demand, the better).

Finally, there are two earnings reports due out today from DE ($3.96) and LI ($0.04), but given the thin volumes and light attendance ahead of Thanksgiving, it is unlikely that either release materially moves markets.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Japan Having a “Liz Truss” Moment?
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Stock futures are modestly lower as yesterday’s robust relief rally is digested ahead of the release of a slew of delayed economic reports.

Economically, German GDP met estimates of +0.3% Y/Y but steadied in Q/Q terms, up from -0.2% to 0.0% in Q3.

Looking into today’s session, there is a long list of economic data due to be released including PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y), Retail Sales (E: -0.4%), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.1%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 93.3), Pending Home Sales (E: -0.4), and Business Inventories (E: 0.2%).

No Fed officials are scheduled to speak (although some last-minute media interviews are possible), however there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and impact stocks, and the stronger the demand, the better for stocks (dovish money flows).

Finally, Q3 earnings continue to be released and noteworthy companies reporting today include BABA ($0.49), BBY ($1.31), ANF ($2.14), DELL ($2.26), WDAY ($0.90), and AMBA ($-0.40).

Bottom line, in order for yesterday’s relief rally to continue in thin holiday-week trading, markets will be looking for Goldilocks-to-strong economic data (not too strong to derail December rate cut bets, though) and stable to well-bid bond markets as a rebound in yields or resurgence in recession worries would pour cold water on yesterday’s risk-on money flows.

 

Tom Essaye Flags Major Bitcoin Breakdown as Long-Term Holders Exit

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Why crypto’s having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad month

Bitcoin’s latest slide may be signaling more trouble ahead, with several key technical and behavioral indicators turning sharply negative, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

Essaye said one of the earliest warning signs emerged in October, when Bitcoin’s powerful rally wasn’t confirmed by momentum indicators. “As Bitcoin pushed higher, the relative strength index failed to rise with it, and that divergence continued to point to further downside,” he noted.

The more decisive signal came this week when Bitcoin broke below critical support at $106,000, a level closely watched by both institutional and retail investors. The breakdown unleashed a wave of selling that Essaye described as unusually intense.

“This wasn’t driven by short-term traders — this was long-term investors exiting the market,” he said. The surge in selling volume reflects that shift: Bitcoin’s latest 4.4% decline occurred on some of the highest turnover of the second half of 2025, a trend Essaye warns has persisted across multiple down days.

The combination of momentum deterioration, major support failure, and heavy long-term holder distribution suggests that pressure may continue to build if prices fall further.

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on November 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Warns Bitcoin Selling Could Trigger a “Doom Loop”

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There could be more pain ahead for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Just Had Its Worst Week in Months. Why Cryptos and Stocks Went in Different Directions Today.

“From a demand perspective it appears there is an early, yet growing, sense of concern that could evolve into full-on panic if the selling pressure continues to intensify further than it already has, as lower prices would prompt more selling in a doom loop of sorts,” analysts at financial research firm Sevens Report wrote on Friday.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on November 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Much Has the Bullish Case Deteriorated?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Much Has the Bullish Case Deteriorated?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can AI Enthusiasm Stabilize?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Important Growth Data Despite the Short Week

Futures are slightly higher as investors digest last week’s volatility following a generally quiet weekend of news.

Most global markets are higher on momentum from Friday’s U.S. rally, except Japanese shares which fell sharply (down more than 2%) after unions negotiated more pay increases, boosting chances for a rate hike.

Economically, the only report was German IFO Business Expectations which missed expectations (90.6 vs. (E) 91.4).

This is a holiday shortened week but the “catch up” in economic data from the government shutdown will continue despite only three and a half trading days.  As a general rule, the more Goldilocks the data (so basically at expectations) the better as it’ll keep growth expectations stable but boost rate cut chances.

Economic reports we’re watching today include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: -0.12) and Industrial Production (E: 0.1%).

 

Why Didn’t Good NVDA Earnings Support Stocks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Didn’t Good NVDA Earnings Support Stocks?
  • Why is Bitcoin “Crashing?”

Futures are little changed as markets try to stabilize following Thursday’s reversal following a quiet night of news.

Global stock were lower mostly on momentum from Thursday’s U.S. declines and following underwhelming data.

Economically, UK Retail Sales (-1.1% vs. (E ) -0.1%), Eurozone Flash PMI (52.4 vs. (E ) 52.5) and the UK Flash PMI (50.5 vs. (E ) 51.8) all missed expectations.

Today focus will be on the November Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.3) and Flash Services PMI (E: 54.8) and markets will want to see Goldilocks data that meets expectations, implies solid economic activity and doesn’t further reduce rate cut expectations.  Conversely, if the flash PMIs are much better than expectations or much worse, they’ll likely add to downside pressure.  We also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 50.5), but that shouldn’t move markets.

Turning to the Fed, Williams (7:30 a.m. ET) and Logan (9:00 a.m. ET) speak this morning and the more dovish they are, the better.

 

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Important for the Fed and Growth)

Futures are moderately higher following better than expected NVDA earnings, which is reinjecting some “AI Enthusiasm” into the markets (NVDA is up 5% pre-open).

Today the “data deluge” beings as we get several delayed economic releases including, in order of importance: September Employment Situation Report (E: 50K Job-Adds, 4.3% Unemployment Rate, 3.7% Wage Growth), Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 1.0), and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.09 million).  Goldilocks data, so close to expectations but not too strong to reduce rate cut chances or weak enough to increase economic anxiety, is the best case for markets.

On the Fed front, there are numerous speakers today including: Hammack (8:45 a.m. ET), Cook (11:00 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:40 p.m. ET) and the more dovish they are, the better.

Finally, on the earnings front, WMT ($0.61) results are the key today and if they are strong (and support solid consumer spending), it’ll be an added positive.

Bottom line, given NVDA’s solid results overnight, if markets can get a Goldilocks jobs report, solid WMT earnings and dovish Fed speak, this early rally could accelerate solidly.

 

Pullback Update: What Makes It Better, What Makes It Worse

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Pullback Update: What Makes It Better, What Makes It Worse?

Futures are showing signs of stabilizing in pre-market trade as investors await fresh (but delayed) economic data, the October Fed meeting minutes, and critical NVDA earnings.

Economically, U.K. and EU CPI/HICP reports met estimates which is helping to quell worries about a resurgence in global inflation pressures.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic releases that will be in focus early: Housing Starts (1.330M), International Trade (E: $-61.0B) as well as a pair of Treasury auctions mid-day: 4-Month Bills (11:30 a.m. ET) and 20-Yr Bonds (1:00 p.m. ET).

Regarding the Fed, there are two noteworthy speakers on the calendar today: Miran (10:00 a.m. ET) and Williams (2:00 p.m. ET) and the October FOMC meeting minutes will be released mid-afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET). The more dovish for markets, the better for stocks.

Finally, there are multiple noteworthy earnings releases today including TGT ($1.76), TJX ($1.22), LOW ($2.97), NVDA ($1.18), PANW ($0.50), however, NVDA results are widely considered to be the most important catalyst of the week as any disappointment could amplify the recent selling pressure and weigh heavily on big-tech, equities more broadly, and risk assets in general.