Bear and Bull

What’s Happening With the Yield Curve (Updated)

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Happening With the Yield Curve (Updated)
  • Oil Market Update and EIA Analysis

Futures are marginally higher on solid earnings, supply chain optimism, and dovish central bank commentary.

Ford (F) posted solid earnings and importantly made positive comments about semi-conductor supply (which has been echoed by numerous companies this quarter).  If we see semiconductor supply improve that will be a large positive for the entire supply chain and take some pressure off inflation.

The Bank of Japan made dovish commentary and reminded markets that not all central banks are getting less dovish (and we may hear that sentiment echoed from the ECB later this morning).

Today the key macro event is the ECB Decision (7:45 a.m. ET) and while the market does not expect any changes to QE or rates, it does expect President Lagarde to reinforce the ECB isn’t going to tighten policy anytime soon.  We also get some notable economic data including Advanced Q3 GDP (E: 2.7%), Jobless Claims (E: 290K), and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.7%) although unless there is a major surprise those reports shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front, today is arguably the single most important day of earnings season as we have two of the biggest stocks in the market, AAPL ($1.24), AMZN ($9.10), reporting after the close.  Other reports we’re watching include: MA ($2.18), CAT ($2.26), MRK ($1.54), SBUX ($1.00), and X ($4.85).