Tom Essaye’s breakdown of how markets could react to the February jobs data.
How markets could react to the February jobs data: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch
How markets might react to Friday’s jobs report: three scenarios.
Tom Essaye, publisher of Sevens Report Research, has provided a breakdown of how markets could react to the February jobs data.
“Just Right” (Expectation for a June Rate Cut Stay Near 90%) 50k-250k Job adds, UE Rate ≥ 3.7%, Wages: ≤ 4.3%. A number in this range would solidify expectations for June rate cuts and the best-case scenario for markets is a slightly underwhelming number, as that will 1) Keep a June rate cut full expected and 2) Not imply the labor market is suddenly losing momentum.
“Too Hot” (A June Rate Cut Probability Drops Below 50%) > 250k Jobs Adds, UE Rate ≤ 3.6%, Wages > 4.4% yoy.
“Too Cold” (Hard Landing Concerns Grow) <50k Job adds. In the immediate reaction, a very soft number will pressure Treasury yields further and could result in a knee-jerk rally in stocks (i.e. bad data is good for stocks because it makes the Fed more likely to cut).
Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 8th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.
If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.
To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.
