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What CPI Means for Markets (Fed Further Behind Curve?)

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What CPI Means for Markets (Fed Further Behind Curve?): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What CPI Means for Markets (Fed Further Behind Curve?)

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum from Wednesday’s impressive reversal and following encouraging Japanese inflation data.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Japanese PPI and it rose 2.5% vs. (E) 2.8%. That may take some pressure off the BOJ to hike rates and also weigh on the yen and the Nikkei rose 3% in response.

Today the focus will remain on economic data and rate cuts via the ECB Rate Decision first (E: 25 bps cut) and later Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 1.8% y/y).  If data can meet expectations and the ECB cuts rates and signals more cuts coming, yesterday’s rally can (and likely will) continue.

There are also two notable earnings reports today via Kroger (KR $0.91) and Adobe (ADBE $4.53).  KR will give us insight into consumer spending (especially on essentials) while ADBE will be the latest tech company to post results (and the stronger the guidance, the better for the broader tech sector).

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This market remains vulnerable to negative shocks

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This market remains vulnerable to negative shocks: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

S&P 500 could hit low 4,000s if ‘things get worse’: The Sevens Report

According to the latest Sevens Report Research note, the S&P 500 may face a significant drop into the low 4,000s in a worst-case scenario, if economic conditions deteriorate and key market assumptions falter.

The firm said in its latest note that recent market activity has shown that the S&P 500 is trading at a valuation that does not reflect current economic realities.

“This market remains vulnerable to negative shocks on growth, Fed rate cuts, inflation, and earnings,” the analysts explained, highlighting the risks the index faces.

Economic data, especially in the labor market, has shown a deterioration in recent months, which has led to rising concerns about a potential hard landing.

While the data still suggests a soft landing is more likely, the slowing economy does not justify the S&P 500’s current 21X multiple, according to Sevens.

“The economy is notably losing momentum, and that’s simply not an environment that warrants a 20X multiple,” Sevens stated.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on September 10th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Is Oil’s Collapse an Anecdotal Warning Sign?

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Is Oil’s Collapse an Anecdotal Warning Sign? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • More Problems With Expectations (This Time Companies)
  • Is Oil’s Collapse an Anecdotal Warning Sign?

Futures are tracking most overseas equity markets lower as investors assess global growth concerns and look ahead to today’s critical U.S. inflation data.

Economically, U.K. data was weak as monthly GDP fell to 0.5% vs. (E) 0.6%, Industrial Production was down -0.8% vs. (E) +0.2% and monthly trade data showed both imports and exports slowed -4.6% and -10.8%, respectively in July.

Looking ahead to today’s session, the most important potential market catalyst is U.S. inflation data: CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.2% y/y). A “cool” CPI report should bolster hopes for a 50 bp rate cut next week, and in turn, support stocks while a “hot” print could pour cold water on this week’s tentative rebound in equity markets.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today however there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed additional light on investor expectations for inflation, growth, and Fed policy going forward. A weak auction outcome would be negative for stocks while solid demand for the 10-Yr Notes should support a continuation of this week’s rally.

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We’re seeing mostly technical dip-buying

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We’re seeing mostly technical dip-buying: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Bloomberg

Stocks Rise as Buyers Scoop Up Bargains After Rout: Markets Wrap

“We’re seeing mostly technical dip-buying,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “Economic growth is undoubtedly and clearly losing momentum, but a soft landing remains more likely than a hard landing. This week focus turns back to inflation.”

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article published on September 8th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market Multiple Table: Still Overvalued

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Market Multiple Table: Still Overvalued: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • September Market Multiple Table Update: Still Overvalued
  • Chart – Oil Falls to 52-Week Lows on Demand Worries

Futures are modestly lower this morning as last week’s volatility and yesterday’s relief rally are digested by investors while focus is shifting to tomorrow’s CPI release.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index whiffed estimates of 93.6 and fell 2.5 points to 91.2 in August while German CPI met estimates at 1.9% y/y.

Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports on the calendar, but two Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Barr (10:00 a.m. ET) and Bowman (12:15 p.m. ET). It is unlikely that either move markets though.

Finally, in the afternoon, the Treasury will hold a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. If demand for the Notes is weak it could spark hawkish money flows while an auction outcome too-strong could reignite recession worries in afternoon trade.

Bottom line, more “wait-and-see” trading is most likely for today’s session as traders await the latest inflation data which has the potential to shift Fed policy expectations (25 bop or 50 bp Fed rate cut) ahead of next week’s meeting.

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The Real Problem for this Market (Not Growth)

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The Real Problem for this Market (Not Growth): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Real Problem for this Market (Not Growth)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does Weak Inflation Data Make a 50 bps Cut More Likely?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  CPI Wednesday is the key report.

Futures are seeing a strong bounce following a generally quiet weekend of news.

There was no specific positive headline that’s rallying futures and instead we’re seeing mostly technical dip buying.

Economically, Japanese Q2 GDP missed estimates (2.9% vs. (E ) 3.1% and that’s pushing back on BOJ rate hike expectations, which is a mild positive (the yen is down 1%).

This week focus turns back to inflation and that includes today’s NY Fed Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%).  If they fall more than expected, it’ll further boost expectations for a 50-bps cut (and help support stocks).  The other notable economic report is Consumer Credit (E: $12.5B) and there is another important tech earnings report after the close (ORCL (E: $1.33)).  Solid guidance from ORCL would be a welcomed positive for investors right now.

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Technical Update (Ahead of Jobs Report)

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Technical Update (Ahead of Jobs Report): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Update (Ahead of Jobs Report)
  • Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis (Will Oil Keep Falling?)

Futures are sharply lower on more disappointing AI related tech earnings and ahead of today’s jobs report.

Broadcom (AVGO) posted disappointing guidance and became the latest AI related tech company to produce underwhelming results and that’s weighing on futures.

Economic, data was mildly disappointing overnight as German IP missed estimates while EU GDP was revised lower.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  Job Adds (160k), Unemployment Rate (4.2%), Wages (0.3% m/m, 3.7% y/y).  The mood in the markets has soured this week and investors are nervous about a disappointing jobs number. If that happens, look for an intense decline in stocks as hard landing chances rise.  However, if the report is “Just Right” a solid relief rally (S&P 500 up 1% or more) should materialize, especially if the Fed speakers today point to a 50-bps cut.

In addition to the jobs report, as mentioned, there are two important Fed speakers today:  Williams (8:45 a.m. ET) and Waller (11:00 a.m. ET).  If they hint at a 50-bps cut, that will help support markets regardless of the jobs report.

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It’s just concerns about global growth

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It’s just concerns about global growth: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Oil Prices Slide on Growth Fears

“It’s just concerns about global growth,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “China had some weak data, and I think that’s really the cause of it.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on September 3rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Market participants were also rotating out of this year’s winners

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Market participants were also rotating out of this year’s winners: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Technology and Energy Stocks Are Hit Hard

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that while the latest ISM manufacturing survey was weak, market participants were also rotating out of this year’s winners and turning to some underperforming sectors.

“The market was pretty resilient the last couple weeks on light volumes, and now people are coming back in, looking forward, and reasonably surmising that markets could be more volatile in the next couple of months, and probably just taking a little bit off the table,” he says.

“For the first time in years, the market would welcome a number as hot as could be,” Essaye says. “If you get more weakening in the labor market, then a hard landing becomes much more probable. And that’s obviously not priced in at all.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on September 3rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (A Significant Change)

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Jobs Report Preview (A Significant Change): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (A Significant Change)

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news and ahead of more important economic reports.

On earnings, HPE became the latest tech company to post solid but “not as good as hoped for” earnings (the stock is down 3% pre-market).

Economically, the only notable report beat estimates as German Manufacturers’ Orders rose 2.9% vs. (E) 1.8%.

Today focus will remain on economic data and the key reports are (in order of importance):  ADP Employment Report (E: 140K), Jobless Claims (E: 230K), ISM Services PMI (E: 51.1) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 0.8%).   From a market reaction standpoint, bad data is now bad for the markets (given growth concerns), so the stronger these numbers, the better for stocks.

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