Posts

The Market Is “Sitting On Big Gains”

/in , /by

The Market Is “Sitting On Big Gains”: Tom Essaye Quoted on BNN Bloomberg

Markets today: AI mania driving Nasdaq 100’s best run since 1999

The market is “sitting on big gains” and most participants just want the year to end to register those gains, according to Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter.

“But I’ve been in this industry long enough to know that when everyone seems to be leaning on one side of the proverbial canoe, it pays to move to the middle.”

Warnings about a market that’s flashing overbought signals have been raising concern about a pullback, with some market observers saying that traders have gone too far, too fast in pricing in a dovish Fed pivot.

Also, click here to view the full BNN Bloomberg article published on December 27th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Markets Have Priced In The Dovish Pivot

/in , /by

Markets Have Priced In The Dovish Pivot: Tom Essaye Quoted on BNN Bloomberg

S&P 500 rally flashes signs of fatigue near record

“Markets have priced in the dovish pivot and stocks never discount the same news twice,” said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. “As we start 2024, markets will need to see new, positive catalysts to send the S&P 500 to new all-time highs.”

Also, click here to view the full BNN Bloomberg article published on December 26th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sentiment Has Deteriorated Since The Start Of December

/in , /by

Sentiment Has Deteriorated: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower as Market Digests November Rally

“Investors will want to see more evidence that supports a soft landing in the data as sentiment has deteriorated since the start of December,” Tom Essaye writes.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye points out that the decision by Moody’s Investors Service to downgrade the outlook for Chinese government credit to negative from stable could be weighing on sentiment. Economic reports due in the day ahead are the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and ISM Services Index, both at 10 a.m. ET.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on December 5th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

One Potential Catalyst

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

/in , /by

One Potential Catalyst That Could Shake Up Markets: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Close Lower, Pausing November Rally

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s it looked like a “wait and see day” ahead of the personal consumption expenditures price index on Thursday, among other data points ahead.

“More times than not, if you’re wondering what’s driving markets right now, it’s usually yields,” Essaye said.

As the end of the year approaches, Essaye thinks it will take a major surprise from the upcoming data releases to send stocks tumbling.

“The bar to get people to heavily sell stocks is pretty high, considering if we can just kind of hold on right for the next five weeks, then we put in the books a pretty good year,” he said.

He said that will change once the calendar flips to 2024, when the market will have to live up to high expectations priced in by traders.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on November 27th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Sevens Report Research’s

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Economic Data Rekindles Stagflation Fears

/in , /by

Economic Data Rekindles Stagflation Fears: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Data Rekindles Stagflation Fears
  • Durable Goods Orders Decline Sharply
  • Continuing Jobless Claims Hit Multi-Year High
  • Consumer Sentiment Reveals Rising Inflation Worries

Futures are little changed in thin trading following the Thanksgiving holiday. This comes as investors digest mixed economic data from Europe and the new Chinese stimulus efforts aimed at shoring up the nation’s embattled real estate sector.

Economically, German GDP fell -0.4% vs. (E) -0.3% Y/Y. However, the Eurozone PMI Composite Flash firmed to 47.1 vs. (E) 46.7 which helped ease some concerns about an imminent, sharp drop off in economic growth in the EU.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on the one potentially market-moving economic report due this morning: PMI Composite Flash (E: 50.3) as there are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions scheduled for the day.

The NYSE will close early today at 1:00 p.m. ET in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.

Click the following link to start a free two week trial of The Sevens Report.
Economic Data Rekindles Stagflation Fears

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

One Potential Catalyst That Could Shake Up Markets

/in , /by

One Potential Catalyst That Could Shake Up Markets: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Begin Holiday-Shortened Trading Week With a Pause

“One potential catalyst that could shake up markets today is the 20-Year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as weak results could trigger a rebound in yields, especially given fading attendance this week and subsequently less liquid market conditions across asset classes,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

In the absence of major data that could shift the narrative, investors will be watching key earnings reports like Nvidia on Tuesday. Bond yields will also be in focus.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on November 20th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

One Potential Catalyst

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Did Stocks Drop? (Familiar Reasons)

/in , /by

Why Did Stocks Drop? S&P 500: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Stocks Drop? (Familiar Reasons)
  • What A Seven Month High In Continuing Jobless Claims Means for Markets

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news. Markets digest Thursday’s two “hawkish” events (poor Treasury auction and Powell comments), the rebound in Treasury yields and stock pullback.

Economic data was mixed overnight as UK manufacturing slightly disappointed (0.1% vs. (E) 0.3%). While monthly GDP slightly beat (-0.2% vs. (E) -0.1%) but overall, the data isn’t moving markets.

Treasury yields will likely remain in control of this market and if they continue to rise, expect more declines in stocks.  From a data standpoint, the numbers that could move Treasury yields today are Consumer Sentiment (E: 64.5) and the Five-Year Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%).  Markets will want to see in-line readings for both (or lower in the case of inflation expectations) to pressure yields.

We also have two Fed speakers today, Logan (7:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (9:00 a.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets (Logan will likely be slightly hawkish and Bostic slightly dovish).

Why Did Stocks Drop?

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investors Are Searching For What’s Next

/in , /by

Investors Are Searching For What’s Next: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

Dow edges higher as stock-market bulls look to build on momentum after best week of 2023

U.S. stocks edged higher Monday, with bulls hoping to build on upside momentum. This is after the best week of 2023 for major indexes.

Investors are “searching for ‘what’s next’ and that could be either 1) A growth scare or 2) A resumption of the soft landing and disinflation narrative that push stocks higher this summer,” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said in a note. “We will all find out together via the data.”

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on November 6th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Futures

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Treasury Yields To Continue To Drive Short-Term Trading

/in , /by

Treasury Yields To Continue To Drive Short-Term Trading: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Extend Rally After Best Week of the Year

“Today there are no notable economic reports and just one Fed speaker, [Lisa] Cook (11:00 a.m. ET), so look for Treasury yields to continue to drive short-term trading,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

The 10-year Treasury yield ticked higher on Monday but was still at 4.614%. The 10-year yield was trading around 5% in October, which weighed on rate-sensitive stocks.

“If the 10-year yield continues to decline then the S&P 500 can extend last week’s rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on November 6th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to Rally

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Israeli Operation in Gaza May Help Ease Geopolitical Tensions

/in , /by

Ease Geopolitical Tensions: Tom Essaye Quoted in Investing.com

From Israel’s Gaza Incursion to Apple’s Launch: Weekly Market Wrap

Economic Conditions and Expert Opinions:

Notably, Tom Essaye from The Sevens Report newsletter noted that the Israeli operation in Gaza might be helping ease geopolitical tensions. 

Despite the positive reaction to the Middle East situation, global equities are still on a trajectory towards their third consecutive monthly decline, attributed to increasing bond yields, a few unexpected tech earnings outcomes, and geopolitical worries.

This week also anticipates numerous key economic events, including interest rate decisions from various central banks, consumer confidence indices, and earnings reports from major corporations like Apple.

Also, click here to view the full Investing.com article published on October 30th, 2023. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.