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Is Housing Starting to Roll Over?

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Housing Starting to Roll Over?
  • Oil Update and EIA Analysis

Futures are moderately higher as earnings continue to come in better than expected.

TSLA and UAL both posted better than expected earnings and UAL was very upbeat on travel spending and investors are viewing that as a positive macro-economic signal.

EU HICP (their CPI) slightly missed expectations (7.4% vs. (E ) 7.5% yoy), again hinting that inflation may be peaking.

Today will be a busy day with important Fed speak, economic data and earnings.  The key event (potentially) is Fed Chair Powell speaking this morning and while he’s not likely to drop any surprises, it’s always possible.  Economically, the key report today is the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (E: 20.5) and markets will want to see stability in the data.  We also get Jobless Claims (E: 175K) and Fed President Bullard (1:00 p.m) but they shouldn’t move markets.

On the earnings front, notable reports today include:  T ($0.78), AAL (-$2.48), FCX ($0.88), PM ($1.48), UNP ($2.55), SNAP ($0.01), PPG ($1.13).

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in ETF Trends on April 18th, 2022

Natural Gas ETF Surges as Tight Supplies Push Prices to 14-Year High

Additionally, a geopolitical fear bid remains in the market and demand is expected to remain elevated leaving the path of least resistance decidedly higher with a medium-term upside target of $9.06…analysts at Sevens Report Research said in Monday’s newsletter, MarketWatch reports. Click here to read the full article.

Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Report Door on April 18th, 2022

Natural-gas prices continue to trade at a nearly 14-year high, while oil prices climb

U.S. natural-gas supplies are tight, sitting 23.9% below where they were last year and 17.8% below the five-year average…analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch on April 18th, 2022

10-year yield highest since late 2018 as Treasury selloff continues

Looking at the yield curve, the 10s-2s spread continued to widen out and is now smack in the middle of the 30-40 basis point resistance range, and we think that’s a critical resistance level…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.

Why Yields Have Risen So Sharply

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why Longer-Duration Yields Are Rising So Sharply
  • Chart – Dollar Index Hits New Multiyear Highs

Futures declined overnight as NFLX dropped sharply on disappointing earnings (specifically declining subscribers) but a pullback in yields has helped the market stabilize in early morning trade.

Economically, German PPI was the latest hot inflation print as the headline spiked 4.9% vs. (E) 2.3% M/M.

Looking into today’s session, there is a slew of potential catalysts for the market beginning with another report on the housing market: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.86M) and then a busy Fed speaker circuit with: Daly (10:30 a.m. ET), Evans (11:30 a.m. ET), and Bostic (1:00 p.m. ET) all scheduled to speak.

There is also a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and impact equity markets.

Finally, earnings season continues today with: PG ($1.29) ahead of the bell and TSLA ($2.27), UAL (-$4.15), AA ($2.99), and CSX ($0.38) due to report after the close.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on April 14th, 2022

Tech Stocks Slide, Banks Report Earnings—and What Else Is Happening in the Stock Market Today

Banks only do that when they think that default rates, which are currently low, will start to rise…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Earnings In Focus

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bottom Line – Earnings In Focus
  • Natural Gas Update

Stock futures are trading lower after another quiet night of news as bond yields hit new multi-year highs overnight while investors look ahead to a fresh set of earnings reports today.

The 10-year Treasury Note yield notably tested 2.90% overnight following hawkish commentary from the Fed’s Bullard, who mentioned the possibility of a 75 basis point hike late yesterday.

Looking into today’s session, there is just one economic report to watch: Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.75M, 1.83M) but it is not likely to move markets. Then there is one Fed speaker mid-day: Evans (12:05 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to pick up today with JNJ ($0.34), LMT ($6.22), TRV ($3.70), and CFG ($0.96) reporting before the open and NFLX ($2.92) and IBM ($1.34) due to report after the closing bell.

Sevens Report Analyst Quoted in Market Watch on April 14th, 2022

Gold marks first loss in 6 sessions, but posts a gain for the week

Looking ahead, the outlook for gold is still bullish and “the level to beat for futures to begin a new leg in the current uptrend is the 2022 high close of $2,058” an ounce, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Thursday’s newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

 

Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch on April 15th, 2022

U.S. natural gas is trading at an ‘insane’ price — Here’s why it just hit a nearly 14-year high

The catalyst behind this week’s rally in natural gas has been a “late season blast of cold weather making its way across the country,” boosting demand for heating in many parts of the nation… said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on April 15th, 2022

Commodities Are Hot Right Now. But the Party May Be Over.

We do see them [commodities] as stretched in the short term… said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.