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The Right Way to Think About Economic Growth Right Now

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The Right Way to Think About Economic Growth Right Now: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard (The Right Way to Think About the U.S. Economy)

Futures are slightly lower following a mostly quiet night of news as markets digest Thursday’s strong rally.

The only notable economic report overnight was UK retail sales, which rose 0.8% vs. (E) 0.5% and added to Thursday’s haul of solid global data.

Geo-politically, Israel/Hamas ceasefire talks continued and any breakthrough would be a surprise market positive.

Today there are a few notable economic reports including Consumer Sentiment (E: 67.0), 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: (E: 2.9%), 5-Yr. Inflation Expectations (E: 3.0%) and Housing Starts (1.342M).  However, those numbers aren’t that important to growth so barring a major surprise, they shouldn’t move markets and we should mostly see digestion of Thursday’s big rally.

There is also one Fed speaker today, Goolsbee (1:25 p.m. ET), and he’s dovish do don’t be surprised if he openly talks about cutting rates in September.

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Within the commodity complex gold remains the best destination for capital

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Within the commodity complex gold remains the best destination for capital: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Gold Is Hitting Records. It’s the ‘Best Destination’ for Capital Within Commodities

“Within the commodity complex gold remains the best destination for capital,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye wrote on Tuesday, although he also warned that technical chart indicators are pointing to the rally in gold slowing down.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on August 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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I really don’t think the market should be rooting for a 50 basis point rate cut

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I really don’t think the market should be rooting for a 50 basis point rate cut: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Odds of a Double Rate Cut Are Rising. Be Careful What You Wish For.

“I really don’t think the market should be rooting for a 50 basis point rate cut in September,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “If the Fed feels like they have to cut 50 bps, then that means they’re all of a sudden worried about the economy, and Fed policy just doesn’t work fast enough to fix those problems.”

The consumer price index for July, due out tomorrow, will give Wall Street a better idea of how inflation stands. Essaye says markets should really be rooting for decent data on inflation and 25 basis point cut in September. In the following days, though, we’ll get updates on the economy that could be more significant signals than the PPI and CPI.

“No one thinks inflation is a problem anymore,” Essaye says. “It’s just a question of how fast it’s declining, right? The bigger question is, what is happening with growth and this does not give any insight into that, and that’s why Thursday’s data is also going to be important.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on August 13th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and and minimum volatility funds

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 I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and and minimum volatility funds: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Halt Rebound as Oil Hits $80 on War Angst: Markets Wrap

Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report says he doesn’t think fundamentals have deteriorated enough to warrant de-risking and reducing equity or risk exposure — but he also wants to caution against dismissing the recent uptick in volatility.

“Much of what I read over the weekend characterized this recent volatility as just a typical pullback in an upward-trending market,” Essaye. “Because of that, I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and and minimum volatility funds.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on August 12th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Swissinfoch logo

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

CPI Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly

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CPI Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • CPI Preview: Good, Bad, Ugly
  • Chart: 10-Yr Yield Falls to 52-Week Lows

Futures are flat this morning while overseas markets were mixed overnight with Europe underperforming amid soft economic data while Asian shares were mostly higher.

Economically, the August German ZEW Survey saw Current Conditions fall to -77.3 vs. (E) -74.5 and Economic Sentiment drop to 19.2 vs. (E) 34.5 which weighed on stocks and other risk assets.

Domestically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 93.7 vs. (E) 91.7 which eased recession fears and is helping U.S. equity futures relatively outperform ahead of the open.

Looking into today’s session, trader focus will be on the first inflation data of the week with PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.0% y/y) due out ahead of the bell.

There is also one Fed speaker: Bostic (1:15 p.m. ET) and one consumer-focused earnings release: HD (E: $4.55) to watch.

Bottom line, PPI could move markets today if there is a big surprise in the release, but markets are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode as investors await the more important CPI release tomorrow.

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How Worried Should We Be About This Market?

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How Worried Should We Be About This Market?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Worried Should We Be About This Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Important Updates on Economic Growth and Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Stagflation or Not?  (CPI Wednesday, Retail Sales Thursday)

Futures are slightly higher following a quiet weekend of news as investors digested last week’s early swoon and strong rebound, ahead of important updates this week on inflation and economic growth.

Geo-political tensions remained elevated as the world waits for the Iran/Hezbollah retaliation on Israel and expectations for an attack any day remain high.

There was no notable economic overnight and investors’ focus is on Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s Retail Sales.

Today is a quiet day on the calendar as there are no notable economic reports and no important Fed speakers.  But, this week provides important updates on inflation and economic growth and the stakes are high:  If inflation cools further and growth is solid, stocks can extend the rally.  If inflation isn’t cool and growth disappoints, brace for stagflation worries (and more volatility).

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A geopolitical fear bid in the oil market

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A geopolitical fear bid in the oil market: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices lifted as data shows drop in U.S. crude inventories

Oil has “benefited from some of the risk-on money flows in other asset classes, most notably stocks, as well as still-elevated tensions between Israel and regional enemies Hamas and Hezbollah, keeping a geopolitical fear bid in the market,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research in a note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on August 7th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Makes This Stop? (Key Indicators to Watch)

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What Makes This Stop? (Key Indicators to Watch): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Makes This Stop? (Seven Indicators to Watch)
  • Chart – VIX Spikes to Pandemic Highs

There is a sense of stability in global markets this morning as the yen and VIX, two major sources of the recent volatility, are both pulling back amid easing recession fears.

Economically, German Manufacturing Orders rose a solid 3.9% vs. (E) 0.8%, helping to offset EU Retail Sales which fell -0.3% vs. (E) +0.1%.

Today, there is one economic report: International Trade (E: -$72.5B) but the data shouldn’t move markets while there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak.

Looking ahead to mid-day, the Treasury will hold a 52-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Investors will be watching the auction results closely to gauge Treasury demand, and if the auctions are weak, that could see some of the recession fears from the last few sessions ease further and allow stocks to recover a good portion of the losses.

Finally, earnings season is starting to wind down but there are a few notable companies releasing results today including: UBER (E: $0.31) ahead of the bell and SMCI (E: $8.10) and ABNB (E: $0.92) after the close.

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The Growth Scare Is Here (What It Means for Markets)

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The Growth Scare Is Here (What It Means for Markets): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Growth Scare Is Here (What It Means for Markets)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  How Far Can This Pullback Go?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Growth Report Today

Futures are plunging globally on snowballing concerns about economic growth following Friday’s soft jobs report.

Global growth concerns are the main reason behind the stock weakness but technical factors are majorly at play, as the Nikkei fell 12% on Monday (not a typo) despite no real, negative news (other than a continued yen rally).

Economically, actual data was solid overnight as both the EU and UK Composite PMIs slightly best estimates but that’s being ignored in the global selloff.

Today the key number is the ISM Services PMI (E: 51.0) and this number needs to print back above 50 (and ideally above expectations) to help stocks stabilize.  If we see another sub-50 number or it’s worse than last month, expect growth concerns to intensify and for this selloff to worsen.

For the Fed, there is one speaker today, Daly at 5:00 p.m. ET, but she shouldn’t move markets.

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What the Fed Decision Means for Market (Tailwind, For Now)

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What the Fed Decision Means for Market (Tailwind, For Now): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the FOMC Decision Means For Markets (Tailwind, For Now)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Wednesday’s rally and following decent tech earnings overnight.

META and QCOM posted solid earnings and guidance and that’s helping support the tech rebound.

Economically, the Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.8 vs. (E) 51.5, offsetting slightly better than expected numbers from the EU and UK.

Today is the busiest day of the week (and really the summer) from a calendar standpoint.  First, we get the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.8) followed by Jobless Claims (E: 236K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 1.9%). To keep Wednesday’s rally going, markets will want to see better than expected numbers across the board to reinforce the idea of a still Goldilocks economy.

On earnings, after the close we get results from two of the most important stocks in the market via AMZN (E: $1.03) and AAPL (E: $1.24) and well as INTC (E: $0.10).

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