The July jobs report reinforces the fact that the Fed will reduce its quantitative easing over the…Tom Essaye, founder and chairman of Sevens Report Research said. Click here to read the full article.
Negatively, there remain aggressive buyers on Treasury dips and it’s going to take a real, impactful headline…Tom Essaye of Sevens Report said in a note. Click here to read the full article.
The 10-year yield bounced off the 1.13% level (which seems to be support) and clearly the 10-year can react…Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report Research, said in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly lower following a mostly quiet weekend of news as there were no major changes to the COVID outlook or the economic recovery.
Economic data was solid as German and Chinese exports for July both beat estimates.
Chinese CPI rose 1% vs. (E) 0.8% and that may reduce the amount of stimulus officials unleash on the economy (so potentially negative for global growth).
Today focus will be on JOLTS (E: 9825M) and on Fed commentary following the jobs report (Bostic at 10:10 a.m. ET and Barkin at 11:20 a.m. ET). But, unless JOLTS are a major surprise or Fed officials are shockingly hawkish, these events shouldn’t move markets. As such, the tenor of COVID headlines (and whether we are seeing behavior changes) will continue to drive markets in the near term.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed ahead of this morning’s jobs report.
Economic data underwhelmed overnight with Japanese Household Spending falling –3.2% while German Industrial Production missed estimates (-1.3% vs. (E) 0.5%).
On COVID, headlines remain net negative as cases continue to rise and analysts look for any signs of a loss of economic momentum (so far there’s nothing concrete).
Today the focus is on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: Job Adds: 900K, UE Rate: 5.7% and Wages: 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y. Again, the biggest risk to markets is for a “Too Hot” jobs number that shifts the tapering timeline, and if that occurs we should brace for volatility.
On the earnings front, most of the systemically important companies are behind…wrote Tom Essaye in a recent memo. Click here to read the full article.
Markets look ahead to key economic data in the…wrote Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research before the jobs report hit the wires. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a quiet night as markets tentatively bounce back from Wednesday’s losses.
Economic data was mixed overnight as German Manufacturers’ Orders beat estimates (4.1% vs. (E) 1.5%) while the UK Construction PMI missed estimates (58.7 vs. (E) 63.8).
On COVID, Los Angeles could follow NYC in requiring proof of vaccination for indoor activities (if this becomes widespread policy in large cities it’ll be an economic headwind.)
Today we have a Bank of England meeting (No Change to Rates Expected), Jobless Claims (E: 381K), and one Fed speaker, Waller at 10:00 a.m. ET (who could be hawkish again, remember he called for tapering to start as early as September).
But, unless there’s a major surprise from the BOE or jobless claims, then COVID headlines will drive markets, and any signs of restrictions or behavior changes in people will cause volatility (and a decline in stocks).
The 2021 oil rally, which has seen WTI and Brent both rise around 48% year-to-date, has been driven…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
Stock futures are rebounding following yesterday’s losses as positive earnings help offset…writes Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.