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Why Markets Are Still So Resilient

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Markets Remain So Resilient
  • Weekly Market Preview (Still All About U.S./China Trade)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet (Wednesday is the Key Day This Week)

Futures are modestly higher on more positive U.S./China trade chatter.

China increased the penalties for Intellectual Property (IP) theft, addressing part of a key U.S. trade demand, while the Global Times (a state-run Chinese paper) said the sides were “very close” to a deal.

Economically, data was mixed but better than October.  German IFO Business Expectations rose to 92.1 vs. (E) 92.5, while British Distributive Trades rose to –3 vs. (E) –10.

Today there are no notable economic reports so the focus will remain on U.S./China trade.  Any incremental positive chatter will be a tailwind for stocks, although the Hong Kong democracy bill remains a wildcard.  If Trump signs it (which he’s expected to do), that could temporarily hit U.S./China trade sentiment, although it’s not a material negative.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 7:00 p.m. ET but he’s not expected to say anything too incremental.

Making Sense of Wednesday’s Trade Headlines (That Caused the Selloff)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What to Make of Wednesday’s Trade Headline (That Caused the Selloff)
  • What Does Escalating Trade Noise Mean for Markets Into Year-End?

Futures are little changed as markets digest yesterday’s potentially negative U.S./China trade headlines along with more headlines overnight, as the trade noise grows louder.

The trade headline whiplash continued overnight as Chinese Vice Premier He said he was “cautiously optimistic” about a phase one deal being signed.  This is helping, somewhat, to counter yesterday’s headline about a deal slipping into 2020.

There were no economic reports out overnight.

Today there are some important economic reports, but the biggest issue today will be whether President Trump signs the bill passed by Congress supporting democracy in Hong Kong (if he does, that could complicate trade talks).  He is expected to sign the bill, although that’s not a high conviction expectation.

Looking at actual economic data, we have two important reports today, Jobless Claims (219K) and Philadelphia Fed (E: 7.5) and one housing number, Existing Home Sales.  As has been the case, the stronger the data, the better for stocks.  We also have two Fed speakers, Mester (8:30 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (10:10 a.m. ET), but neither should move markets.

Tom Essaye Interviewed with TD Ameritrade Network on November 20, 2019

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Tom Essaye interviewed with Oliver Renick from TD Ameritrade, discussing Bonds vs Equities, trade war, yield curve, reflation and more…Click here to watch the full interview.

Tom Essaye with TD Ameritrade

Clearing the Trade War Fog

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Clearing the Fog: Where Are We on U.S.-China Trade?

U.S stock futures are trading lower and international markets saw broad declines overnight thanks to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

The Senate passed a bill late Tuesday in support of the Hong Kong protests to which the Chinese Foreign Ministry has issued a strong statement of disapproval for.

Additionally, Trump threatened higher tariffs at a cabinet meeting yesterday and the combination is weighing on sentiment.

There are no economic reports today and no Fed officials scheduled to speak but the minutes from the October FOMC Meeting are due out at 2:00 p.m. ET which will be closely watched for further clues on the Fed’s future policy plans.

The trade war is still dominating markets right now so investors will be watching for any rebuttals from the U.S. regarding China’s negative response to the “Hong Kong bill” or any additional talk of future tariff policy from either the U.S. or China.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Invest Records on November 11, 2019

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“Stocks hit fresh new highs last week on a familiar theme: Positive chatter/headlines on phase one of a U.S./China trade deal, while earnings and global data…” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, in a Monday note to clients. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye

An Economic Fork in the Road

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Economic Breaker Panel Update: An Economy at a Fork in the Road

Global markets are trading with a moderate risk-off tone this morning as the trade war weighs on sentiment.

It remains unclear whether the U.S. will offer relief on existing tariffs as part of the “phase one” trade deal with China (which has been priced into stocks in recent weeks), or just cancel the scheduled December tariffs, which would be a disappointment.

Meanwhile, on the economic front, Eurozone Industrial Production was largely overlooked because of trade angst but the release was not as bad as feared (0.1% vs. E: -0.3%) further easing recession concerns in Europe.

There were other headlines overnight including escalating protests in Hong Kong which saw the Hang Seng underperform (down nearly 2%) and chatter about the public impeachment hearings in Washington today but neither are materially affecting U.S. stocks at this point as the market’s main focus remains the trade war.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: CPI (E: 0.3%) before focus will turn to Powell’s testimony before Congress on the state of the economy at 11:00 a.m. ET. Later in the day, there are two other Fed officials scheduled to speak before the closing bell: Barkin (12:30 p.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:30 p.m. ET).

Bottom line, there are a lot of headlines this morning but the trade war remains the single most important influence on this market so if expectations for tariff removal continue to fade, stocks are likely to trade with a heavy tone.

Is Europe a Buy?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Powerful Is the Growth to Value Rotation?
  • Is Europe a Buy?

Futures are edging higher in early trade while most international markets rallied on better-than-feared data overnight.

In Europe, the headline to the German ZEW Survey was a slight miss but business expectations rebounded to -2.1 vs. (E) -12.5 as recession fears continued to moderate.

In the U.S., the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was 102.4 vs. (E) 102.0 another incremental economic positive.

With no economic reports today, focus will be on Trump’s midday speech in NY regarding the trade war. Additionally, there are two Fed speakers: Harker (1:00 p.m. ET) and Kashkari (6:00 p.m. ET).

The trade war is still by far the most important influence on the markets right now so whether Trump is negative or positive in his discussion regarding trade negotiations today will likely decide whether stocks rally or extend yesterday’s pullback this afternoon.

What’s Priced Into Stocks Now?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Priced into Stocks At These Levels?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More Trade Updates Coming
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Key Data on Friday

Futures are modestly lower this morning thanks to disappointing U.S./China trade news and underwhelming economic data.

President Trump threw more cold water on the idea of existing tariff reduction over the weekend saying that the tariff reduction story was “over-reported.”

Economically, Chinese New Yuan Loans rose 12.4% vs. (E) 12.5%, while British IP & Q3 GDP slightly missed estimates.

Today should be relatively quiet as there are no economic reports today and no Fed speakers due to the Veteran’s Day holiday.  The bond market is also closed.

However, any trade news/commentary could cause larger than normal volatility given expected holiday trading volumes, so we’ll be watching the tape closely.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Stock Investor on November 6, 2019

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Tom Essaye (TE): Buybacks have been a factor in the market over the past couple of years. Basically, buybacks occur when a company uses cash (either its own or borrowed money) to purchase shares of stock in the open market. A company then essentially “retires” that stock, thereby taking it out of circulation, which reduces or “floats” the total number of shares outstanding…

Click here to read the full article.

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Bond Yield Breakout

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did Global Bond Yields Finally Breakout?

Futures are slightly lower following a quiet night as markets digest Thursday’s “tariff reduction” headlines while economic data continued to show mild improvement.  There was no new trade news overnight.

Economically, Chinese and German exports slightly beat estimates (Chinese exports down –0.9% vs. (E) -3.9%), German exports up 1.5% vs. (E) 0.3%) in another sign that global growth may be stabilizing.

Today there is just one economic report, Consumer Sentiment (E 96.0) and three Fed speakers, Daly (11:45 a.m. ET), Williams (8:00 p.m. ET) and Brainard (8:45 p.m. ET) but none of that should move markets as U.S./China trade is totally dominating the market narrative right now.

Given that, any confirmation of immediate tariff reduction with a phase one agreement will extend the rally in stocks and yields, while any contradiction of yesterday’s tariff reduction headlines will weigh on markets.