“Stocks are grinding relentlessly higher into year-end on continued momentum from the positive resolution of four key events: A phase one trade deal…” Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report, said in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are marginally higher following a good report on retail sales by Mastercard. Trading is quiet, however, as most of Europe, Hong Kong and Australia are closed for Boxing Day.
Mastercard (MA) posted preliminary estimates for 2019 holiday spending and they appear stronger than expectations, and that’s helping send futures higher.
There was no “Christmas surprise” from North Korea although a missile launch is still expected in the coming days (but even if it happens, it shouldn’t impact markets much).
The only notable number out today is Jobless Claims (E: 223K), and we’ll want to see the continued unwind of the Thanksgiving spike higher in claims that occurred two weeks ago.
“Stocks are grinding relentlessly higher into year-end on continued momentum from the positive resolution of four key events: A phase one trade deal, a dovish Fed…” Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report, said in a note on Monday.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are marginally higher this morning while international markets were little changed overnight as news wires were very quiet and attendance is notably thin ahead of the Christmas holiday.
There were no economic reports overnight and no market-moving headlines have crossed since yesterday’s close.
Looking into today’s holiday-shortened session (the NYSE will close at 1:00 p.m. ET), there are no notable economic releases and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
The only potential market catalyst on the calendar is a 5-Yr Note Auction by the Treasury at 10:00 a.m. ET. Any significant moves in the belly of the yield curve could affect stocks today as computer trading will dominate the price action due to the low attendance ahead of Christmas.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher thanks mostly to momentum from last week’s rally as the weekend was a quiet one.
On trade, the WSJ reported China has reduced additional tariffs on some goods, but this is all part of the existing phase one deal and it’s not an incremental positive.
Economic data was sparse overnight, and none of the numbers are moving markets.
Today we get the most important economic report of the week, New Orders for Non-Defense Capital Goods ex-Aircraft (E: 0.0%), which is a proxy for business spending – something that should start to rise now that we have a phase one trade deal. As has been the case, the stronger this number, the better for stocks.
Beyond today, this week would have been a quiet one even if there wasn’t a holiday, but it should be even more so as the economic calendar is very sparse. Geo-politically, North Korea could launch a missile or test a nuclear bomb this week, but while it might cause temporary volatility, that won’t derail this rally. So, as long as there are no negative trade surprises, the path of least resistance for stocks remains higher into year-end.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are flat following a very quiet night of news.
Economic data was mixed as Australian jobs adds beat expectations (39k vs. (E) 18k) while British retail sales badly missed estimates in November (-0.6% vs. (E) 0.5%. But, neither number is moving markets.
On the earnings front, Micron (MU) had positive commentary and the stock rallied 5% after hours, and that’s helping broader market sentiment this morning (it’s the single biggest reason stocks are flat).
Today’s focus will remain on economic data, and there are three notable reports including (in order of importance): Jobless Claims (E: 221K), Philly Fed (E: 8.5) and Existing Home Sales (E: 5.450M).
As has been the case, the stronger the data, the better, and if we get decent prints from these reports, we’ll be looking at 3200 in the S&P 500 shortly after the open.
What’s in Today’s Report:
It is another slow morning in the markets as stock futures are tracking the modest gains of overseas equities amid good economic data but underwhelming earnings news.
FDX shares are down 7% in pre-market trading after the company missed on earnings and lowered 2020 guidance.
The German Ifo Survey showed improving economic sentiment in Europe’s largest economy with both Current Conditions and Business Expectations figures topping estimates which is helping EU stocks edge higher this morning.
Looking into today’s session, it is lining up to be another quiet day as there are no economic reports and only one Fed official is scheduled to speak: Evans (12:40 p.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly higher on the U.S./China phase one deal momentum while economic data was mixed.
There were no new details released on phase one trade deal over the weekend, but sentiment towards the agreement remained generally positive.
Economic data was mixed as Chinese economic data beat estimates (Retail Sales, FAI, Industrial Production), while EU flash manufacturing PMI missed 45.9 vs. (E) 47.3.
Today (and going forward) focus will turn back towards economic data, so today’s Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.4) is the key number to watch, while Empire Manufacturing Index (E: 4.0) and the Housing Market Index (E: 70) are also notable. Going forward, the better the economic data, the better for stocks.
What’s in Today’s Report:
It’s green on the screen as global stocks surged overnight following the agreement on phase one of the U.S./China trade deal, while the landslide Tory victory in the UK elections added fuel to the bullish fire.
Regarding the UKL election, it was a bullish surprise. The Tory party won 361 seats, well over the 335 expected, and the big majority almost guarantees a quick passage of the Brexit agreement.
On trade, there’s been no new news since yesterday afternoon as markets wait for official details of the deal, although rumors of a signing ceremony this afternoon with the Chinese ambassador hit the tape earlier this morning.
Today the market will be focused on getting the actual text of the trade deal, and that will dominate the market’s attention. But, we also have an important economic number out this morning, Retail Sales (E: 0.5%), and if it confirms the U.S. consumer remains incredibly strong (which it should) that will likely add to the bullish mood in markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a generally quiet night as markets digest yesterday’s Fed meeting and wait on important trade news and the results of the UK election.
Today is a big day in the U.S./China trade as Trump is meeting with senior advisors to decide the fate of the 12/15 tariff increases. It’s widely expected they will be delayed and if they are not, that will be a negative shock for markets.
Economic data was again mixed as Euro Zone IP missed (-0.5% vs. (E) -0.3%) while German CPI met expectations.
Today will be a busy day. First, regarding the trade meeting, it’s unclear if a formal announcement will be made on the decision, but it could come at any time so markets will be watching the tape closely. Additionally, there is also an ECB Meeting this morning and it’s new ECB President Lagarde’s first press conference. Finally, we should know the results of the UK election by this evening, and the key number for the Torys is 335 seats. Stocks will like any result above that number.
On the economic front, the only notable report is Jobless Claims (E: 213K).