“I don’t think it was anything surprising because we had very good ADP number and good jobless claims. So people were expecting a good number. Overall, what the jobs number is saying about the economy is what we already know…” said Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a quiet weekend of news.
Wuhan virus related fears receded further over the weekend as the virus continued to spread, but at a slower pace than before and experts think the transmission rate of the disease has peaked. Additionally, factories in China will gradually reopen this week, potentially limiting any economic fallout.
Economic data was sparse overnight although Chinese CPI rose 5.4% vs. (E) 4.9%, which should reduce hopes of any additional, large scale stimulus from Chinese authorities.
Today there are no economic reports and no Fed speakers, so focus will remain on any Wuhan virus headlines. The key right now is the factory re-openings in China. As long as there isn’t any news that implies factory re-openings will be delayed beyond this week (and in doing so put more pressure on the economy) than Wuhan virus related fears should continue to decline.
“While stocks are hitting new all-time highs and bond yields are moving…investors remain wary of the broader macroeconomic backdrop for the financial markets, and gold is still a favorite safe haven destination…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Global equities rallied overnight and stock futures are trading higher today after China reduced tariffs on $75B worth of U.S. goods, spurring optimism for a “phase two” trade deal and further easing concerns about the coronavirus outbreak’s impact on the global economy.
Outside of trade news, OPEC+ has agreed to cut their collective oil output target by 600K b/d to help support oil prices which crashed into a bear market this week on Wuhan coronavirus fears.
Today, there are two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and Productivity and Costs (E: 1.5%, 1.2%) while two Fed officials will speak: Kaplan (9:15 a.m. ET) and Quarles (7:15 p.m. ET).
Additionally, there are a few earnings releases due out including: TWTR ($0.28), BMY ($0.88) and UBER (-$0.68), however given the latest trade-war news, the markets will remain largely focused on China’s decision to cut tariffs and any new developments regarding the coronavirus outbreak.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures and global equities are solidly higher this morning thanks to emerging reports of breakthrough treatments for the coronavirus outbreak however details on the potential “cure” are limited at this time.
Economic data was mixed overnight as global Composite PMI data modestly topped expectations but Eurozone Retail Sales disappointed in December (-1.6% vs. E: -0.4%).
Today, there are three economic reports to watch starting with the first release of “jobs week,” the ADP Employment Report (E: 154K) which will be followed by International Trade figures (E: -$48.1B) and the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (E: 55.2).
There is also one Fed official scheduled to speak after the close: Brainard (4:10 p.m. ET) and a few key earnings releases to watch: MRK ($1.14), GM ($0.01), QCOM ($0.85), and MET ($1.40).
As long as there are no major surprises from those potential catalysts, the market is likely to remain focused on the coronavirus outbreak and any emerging details regarding the potential breakthroughs in treatment that were reported overnight. Given the lack of specifics and the near-term overbought status of stocks here, the risk of a “sell the news” reaction does exist today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are up over 1% this morning, tracking solid gains in international markets after China’s central bank initiated another round of emergency stimulus overnight.
The PBOC has injected over $240B into the financial system this week to ease the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
Politically, the official results for the Iowa caucuses have been delayed due to technical issues with voting apps but sources say that the results should be released later today.
Looking into today’s session, there are two lesser followed economic data points due out: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 16.8MM) and Factory Orders (E: 1.2%) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
That will leave focus on the delayed results from the Iowa caucuses as well as earnings from several big names including: DIS ($1.43), F ($0.17), STX ($2.72), ALL ($3.12), PRU ($2.01).
Lastly, the market remains sensitive to the coronavirus outbreak and any significantly negative headlines regarding the spread of the virus or a rising mortality rate could weigh on stocks again.
The National Health Commission of China reported 7,711 confirmed cases of the coronavirus, including 170 casualties. According to CNBC, Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said that global markets are “becoming more concerned” about future earnings and economic growth…Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are bouncing modestly following Friday’s selloff. The weekend was a quiet one from a market standpoint.
The Wuhan virus situation didn’t change (the virus continues to spread) but there are reports that existing anti-viral drugs are helping to treat the disease (a small positive).
Economically, The EU and British manufacturing PMIs slightly beat estimates, but still remain weak on an absolute basis (47.9 and 50.0 respectively).
Today the key economic report is the January ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.7), and following Friday’s bad Chicago PMI, the market needs a decent number to help reassure investors the U.S. economic remains on solid footing. There’s also one Fed speaker, Bostic at 4:30 p.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.
Regarding any Wuhan headlines, the key remains whether they will add more pressure to global growth. If we hear about more plant closures/flight & travel restrictions, etc. that will pressure stocks.
“The spread of the Wuhan virus isn’t accelerating, but markets becoming more concerned about future earnings and economic…” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, says investors have a clear playbook for Wuhan.
“From a market standpoint, since this disease is closely related to SARS, I think the market…” Essaye says. Click here to read the full article.
