Posts

Are Credit Spreads Confirming Growth Worries?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Credit Spreads Confirming Growth Worries?

Futures are bouncing modestly after Thursday’s declines and following better than expected EU inflation data.

Regional German, French and Italian inflation metrics were better than expected, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut from the ECB next week.

On tariffs, there was no new news overnight, but Trump will likely speak with reporters again during/following his meeting with Zelensky later today.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and put simply, this number needs to come in at or under expectations to ease inflation anxiety and help support stocks.

On the trade front, Trump will be signing a minerals deal with Ukrainian President Zelensky this morning and while there’s nothing specific about trade on the agenda, it’s possible Trump talks about tariffs, which obviously could move markets.

Finally, we have one Fed speaker today, Barkin at 8:30 a.m. ET.

What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?
  • February Consumer Confidence Takeaways
  • Chart – Case-Shiller Home Price Index Highlights Sticky Inflation Pressures

Futures are solidly higher with mega-cap tech leading the early advance amid renewed AI optimism after Chinese AI company DeepSeek reopened access to its core interface model while investors await NVDA earnings after the close (shares up ~2.5% pre-market).

There are a slew of potential market catalysts today starting with one economic report due out shortly after the open: New Home Sales (E: 680K) and two noteworthy Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET (important for near-term Fed policy rate expectations) and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (important to gauge investor concerns about an economic slowdown).

Finally, there are a few notable consumer companies reporting earnings before the open including LOW ($1.83) and TJX ($1.16) but the biggest potential market moving catalyst of the day comes after the close with NVDA earnings ($0.84), as well as two other important tech-related earnings releases from CRM ($2.61) and SNOW ($0.18).

Four Reasons Investors Are Worried About Washington

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Investors Worried About Washington? (Four Reasons)
  • Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Adds to Growth Fears

Futures are slightly lower as most global markets declined overnight, led by Asian tech stocks, after President Trump reiterated tariff plans for Canada and Mexico and revealed new plans limiting China’s semiconductor industry.

Today, there are two housing market reports to watch: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), before the more important economic release of the day, Consumer Confidence (E: 103.0) is due to be released shortly after the opening bell.

Following a string of weak economic reports in recent days, the market will be looking for some more upbeat and stable growth and consumer confidence figures today to help equities stabilize.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker in the early afternoon: Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to move bond yields and impact equity market trading.

Finally, earnings season continues with a few notable companies reporting today including: HD ($3.04), KDP ($0.57), AMC ($-0.16), AXON ($1.41), and INTU ($2.58).

Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market

/in , /by

Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

Oil recoups some of its recent losses as U.S. imposes fresh sanctions on Iran

Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran announced Monday “invited a modest bid to the market” and the news helped U.S. benchmark prices defend the psychological $70 level, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch on Monday.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on February 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

/in , /by

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

Futures are little changed following slightly disappointing economic data overnight.

EU and UK flash PMIs underwhelmed as the EU Services PMI declined to 50.7 vs. (51.5) while the UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 vs. (E) 48.5, underscoring the economic headwinds facing the EU and UK.

Today focus will stay on economic data and the two key reports are the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.3) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0).  Markets will want to see in-line to slightly weak readings but most importantly, no big jumps in the price indices like we saw in Empire and Philly earlier this week.

Other notable events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.16 million) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 68.0) as well as two Fed speakers:  Jefferson (11:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:30 a.m. ET).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Lowering Energy Prices To “Combat Sticky High Inflation”

/in , , /by

Lowering energy prices to combat sticky high inflation: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices end lower as U.S. crude supplies climb for a third week in a row

A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, or end of the war, could be bearish for oil if Trump, who is adamant about lowering energy prices to “combat sticky high inflation” pushes for an immediate removal of all sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Also, geopolitical stability may “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.”

The market’s reaction to the CPI data underscored that “higher-for-longer Fed policy is becoming increasingly likely in 2025,” Richey said. “That ultimately raises the risk that restrictive rates choke off growth and tip the economy over a fragile edge into a recession, a historically demand-crippling phase of the economic cycle for oil and refined products.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation

/in , , /by

Tom Essaye Interview With Financial Sense

This Week: Sticky Inflation and More Tariffs – Tom Essaye on Market Response

Financial expert Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report joins Financial Sense to break down what’s driving inflation, the potential impact of new tariffs, and why the Fed may be forced to reconsider rate cuts. With the S&P 500 at record highs, Essaye warns of market vulnerability and highlights where investors should be looking now. Don’t miss this deep dive into inflation, interest rates, and market strategy!

Also, click here to view the full interview with Financial Sense published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

/in , , /by

Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

Why ‘The People are the Product’ for RDDT and TTD A.I. Usage

Ahead of Reddit (RDDT) earnings, shares are trading off of all-time highs. “These platforms live and die based off the usage” of its subscribers, says Tom Essaye. He adds that he likes the company’s business structure, believing the company will only become more valuable. For The Trade Desk (TTD) he says the AI story will be one to watch. Tom believes the AI technology has to make its ads more effective, targeted and valuable.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

/in , , /by

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest fresh tariff threats from President Trump and more “hot” inflation data out of Europe, both of which are driving global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s House Price Index fell -5.0% in January rekindling concerns about the nation’s housing sector while UK CPI was 3.0% vs. (E) 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December, stoking inflation fears and adding upward pressure to bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.397M) before the January FOMC Meeting Minutes will come into focus in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

There is also one Fed speaker but not until after the close: Jefferson (5:00 p.m. ET) while we will get a few noteworthy (but not likely market-moving) earnings releases from ETSY ($0.95), CVNA ($0.32), and TOST ($0.06).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Where Do We Stand With Tariffs?

/in , , /by

Where Do We Stand With Tariffs?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Tariff Threats Remain Centerstage
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Stagflation Risks Turn Investor Focus to Fed Meeting Minutes

Stock futures are higher despite a rise in global bond yields thanks to growing fiscal concerns in Europe and hawkish commentary from the Fed’s Waller over the long weekend.

Economically, U.K. jobs data from January was solid while the German ZEW Survey was better than expected which added upside pressure to global yields overnight.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch this morning: Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -0.5) and the Housing Market Index (E: 47.0) as well as two Fed speakers on the calendar Daly (10:20 a.m. ET) and Barr (1:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 52-Week Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact yields and move equity markets and earning season continues with a few noteworthy companies due to report quarterly results today including: BIDU ($1.78), MDT ($1.36), OXY ($0.67).

Bottom line, investors will want to see more “Goldilocks” data to contradict last week’s “whiff of stagflation,” and a less hawkish tone from Fed officials. Additionally, stabilizing yields and solid earnings would offer added tailwinds for equity markets at the start of the holiday-shortened trading week.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.