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Tech Shares Have Been Driving The Major Stock Indices So Far This Week

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Tech shares have been driving the major indices: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Slip. Apple Event in Focus Ahead of CPI Data.

“Tech shares have been driving the major stock indices so far this week,” Essaye writes. “So any meaningful reaction in [AAPL] shares will likely move the broader indices as focus turns ahead to CPI tomorrow.”

With no major economic reports ahead of Wednesday’s release of the consumer price index for August, Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes that Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) new product event will be a key focus. The event is expected to unveil the next line of iPhones. Wall Street doesn’t foresee the device will be a massive step up from recent releases.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on September 12th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Tech Shares - Barron's Quote

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Get defensive but hold onto the magnificent seven

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Get defensive but hold onto the magnificent seven: Tom Essaye Joins BNN Bloomberg

Get defensive but hold onto the magnificent seven: Tom Essaye

Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report Research, joins BNN Bloomberg for his cautious outlook for the markets, getting more into defensive areas and staying away from the Arm IPO.

Also, click here to watch the full BNN Bloomberg video published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment in our daily report sign up here.

Get Defensive

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The Fundamental Focus of the Oil Market Has Shifted: Oil Futures

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Oil Futures Touch Fresh Highs: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Morningstar

Oil futures touch fresh highs for the year on bets for tighter global supplies

“The fundamental focus of the oil market has shifted from demand — more specifically concerns that a slowdown in global growth will hurt consumer spending on refined products — to the supply side as Russia and Saudi Arabia caught markets off guard with their output cut extension announcements,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Monday’s newsletter.

Factoring in the extended cuts, “many forecasts reflect deepening supply deficits in physical markets into the end of the year and that, paired with another wave of speculators getting scared out of the market by the latest OPEC+ surprise, has resulted in the latest leg higher to fresh 2023 highs in oil,” they said.

Looking ahead, the path of least resistance is higher for oil right now, with WTI “fast approaching our initial upside target of $89 [a] barrel,” the Sevens Report analysts said. “However, we remain in the camp that the onset of a recession will derail the rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Morningstar article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Stable Treasury Yields: Tom Essaye’s Insight

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Stable Treasury Yields: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Are Rising, With Tech Leading the Way Higher

Technology stocks were leading the broader market higher in early Monday trading as traders braced for a busy week ahead.

“Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers, so focus will remain on Treasury yields and if yields are relatively stable, then stocks can rebound from last week’s losses,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. 

The big event of the week will be the release of the consumer-price index for August on Wednesday. The inflation reading will inform the Federal Reserve’s next moves on inflation. 

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Treasury Yields

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Focus Remains on Treasury Yields Today

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Today’s Focus Remains on Treasury Yields – Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Dow edges up as stocks look to rebound ahead of coming inflation, retail sales data

U.S. stock indexes were up as of Monday afternoon, with consumer discretionary shares and several technology companies leading the broader market higher, as traders braced for a busy week of economic data releases.

“No major U.S. economic data is set for release on Monday, so the focus will remain on Treasury yields”, said Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report Research. 

“If yields are relatively stable, then stocks can rebound from last week’s losses”, Essaye said in an email.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on September 11th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on today’s market insights sign up here.

Treasury Yields

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more… To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

German Industrial Data: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

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German Industrial Production Data Disappoints – Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Frankfurt Weighs on Europe Trading as German Industrial Data Disappoint

Germany’s industrial production figures disappointed Thursday, weighing on Frankfurt-traded stocks in a mixed day for European trading.

German industrial production fell 0.8% month over month in July, data out Thursday revealed. Missing economists’ expectations of just a 0.35% decline but marking a moderation from a 1.4% slide in June.

“German industrial production missed estimates as global recession fears crept higher,” noted Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on September 7th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on global economic data sign up here.

industrial data disappoint

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Is the Bullish Argument for Stocks Becoming Unsustainable?

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The Bullish Argument for Stocks: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Bullish Argument for Stocks Becoming Unsustainable?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does Disinflation Continue or Reverse?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  CPI on Wednesday is the Key Report This Week

Futures are moderately higher on encouraging Chinese economic data. As well as multiple financial publications predicted the Fed is done with rate hikes.

Chinese New Yuan Loans rose 1,360 billion vs. (E) 1,200 billion hinting the Chinese economy may be stabilizing.

Reuters, Bloomberg and the WSJ have published articles since Friday essentially saying the Fed is done with rate hikes and while that’s not new news, it’s helping futures rally this morning.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers. Today’s focus will remain on Treasury yields and if yields are relatively stable, then stocks can rebound from last week’s losses.

Join us for an in-depth exploration of the stock market’s current trajectory. 

Bullish argument

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Market Multiple Table Chart: September

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Market Multiple Table Chart: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart (September Update)

Futures are slightly lower following more mixed economic data overnight.

There were no changes to the Market Multiple Table Chart for September, leaving the July/August target levels in place.

Japanese GDP (1.2% vs. (E) 1.3%) and Euro Zone GDP (0.1% vs. (E) 0.3%) both slightly missed expectations and further hinted at a loss of economic momentum.  Meanwhile, German CPI was in line with expectations (0.3% m/m, 6.1% y/y) as inflation in the EU remains sticky.

Today the calendar is mostly quiet, but focus will be on the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (Previous 212.0) and markets will want to see that “bell weather” for inflation continue to decline. If the MUVVI falls solidly we could see Treasury yields dip and stocks enjoy a relief rally.  Other notable events today include Consumer Credit (E: $18.0B) and a speech by Fed Governor Barr at 9:00 a.m. ET, but neither event should move markets.

September Market Multiple Table Chart

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Navigating Market Signals: Tom Essaye’s Insight on Growth and Demand

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Market Growth and Demand Signals – Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

U.S. Stock Futures Slip as Higher Oil Prices Renew Inflation Fears

Economic data on tap includes the ISM services index for August, the trade balance for July, and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, an anecdotal report of current economic conditions published eight times a year.

“As has been the case lately, the market is looking for signs of slowing demand but not a sharp downturn in growth,” said Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research.

“The ISM will be the more important report to watch so a number that is ‘too hot’ or ‘too cold’ will likely see yesterday’s stock market declines extended, while a Goldilocks print will help markets stabilize.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on September 7th, 2023. However, to see Tom’s full comments on market growth and demand signals sign up here.

Market Growth and Demand Signals

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Evidence of Some Deterioration in the Fundamentals

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Deterioration in the Fundamentals: Strengthen your market knowledge with a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table:  Evidence of Some Deterioration in the Fundamentals

Futures are modestly lower on another negative AAPL article and more mixed economic data.

AAPL shares fell another 3% pre-market as Bloomberg also reported certain Chinese government agencies would be banned from using foreign made phones.

Economically, Chinese exports were no worse than feared (-8.8%). However, German Industrial Production missed estimates (-0.8% vs. (E) -0.2%) as global recession fears crept higher.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak.  The two key reports to watch are Jobless Claims (E: 238K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 1.7%).  Markets will want to see the former rise more than expected (but not too much more) and the later be less than expectations.  The opposite (low claims and high Unit Labor Costs) will push Treasuries higher and weigh further on stocks.

Turning to the Fed, New York Fed President Williams speaks at 3:30 ET. Since he’s part of Fed leadership, we’ll pay attention and markets will hope he hints that rate hikes are done.  Bostic also speaks at 3:45 ET but his message will likely be predictably dovish, and as such it won’t move markets.

multiple

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