“Stocks are digesting the declines of the past two weeks and while there are some notable employment and inflation numbers looming on Thursday and Friday, the bottom line is the calendar into year-end should be mostly quiet, again barring any material surprises,” Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research, wrote Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are marginally higher on additional China reopening headlines, although China embarking on a re-opening process is now well known and mostly priced into stocks.
The South China Morning Post reported that Hong Kong will ease isolation rules for COVID-positive residents and travelers, in what is the latest step towards reopening.
Economic data was sparse overnight and the only notable report was Japanese GDP which slightly beat estimates (-0.2% vs. (E) -0.3%).
Today’s focus will be on weekly Jobless Claims (E: 228K) as markets need to see further deterioration in the labor market to move the Fed closer to an ultimate “pivot.” Any move towards 250k in should be welcomed by markets.
Still, the VIX has not behaved in its typical fashion for much of this year, said Tyler Richey, a co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, joins BNN Bloomberg to recap earnings from big tech this week. Click here to watch the full interview.
The Sevens Report Research analysts said oil’s new trading range spans “between support in the upper $70s and resistance in the low $90s, as traders assess the outlook for demand amid growing recession concerns but still-tight global supply dynamics.” Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately lower following another disappointing night of earnings.
AMZN became the latest mega-cap tech stock to miss earnings and the stock fell more than 10% after hours. AAPL posted “ok” results and rose 1% overnight.
Economically, the Italian CPI was hotter than expected (11.9% vs. (E) 9.7% yoy) as inflation remains sticky in the EU.
Focus today will be on inflation data, specifically the Core PCE Price Index (0.5% m/m, 5.2% y/y). If this number comes in under expectations, that’ll be a mild positive for markets. Also on the inflation front, the Employment Cost Index (E: 1.2% q/q, 5.0% y/y) will be closely watched by the Fed, while the University of Michigan Five Year Inflation Expectations will be released inside of the Consumer Sentiment report (E: 59.7). If those five-year expectations can drop further below 3%, that will be a positive for markets.
Other notable releases today include Pending Home Sales Index (E: -3.8%) and a few notable earnings results: XOM ($3.88), CVX ($5.02), CL ($0.74).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower as the Chinese yuan fell to a 14-year low overnight while traders look ahead to big tech earnings.
Economically, the German Ifo Survey was better than feared with Business Expectations up to 75.6 vs. (E) 74.8.
Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: -0.8%), FHFA House Price Index (E: -0.7%), and Consumer Confidence (E: 106.0). Since Friday’s renewed hopes for peak-hawkishness, the bad news is good news for markets so further softening in the data could keep downward pressure on yields and support a continued rebound in equities today.
There is also a 2-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed some light on bond traders’ outlook for the terminal rate as a weak outcome could send yields higher and ultimately see the stock market give back some of the Friday/Monday gains.
Finally, earnings season is becoming the market’s primary focus and there are a lot of big names reporting today including: UPS ($2.84), KO ($0.64), GM ($1.89), MMM ($2.61), JBLU ($0.24), and SYF ($1.42) before the bell, while GOOGL ($1.25), MSFT ($2.30), and V ($1.86) are due to report after the close.
“Oil has given back roughly half of the October gains this week thanks to the negative shift in policy and economic outlooks denting demand expectations,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are moderately higher after new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt abandoned virtually all of the tax cut proposals in PM Truss’s spending/stimulus plan.
Hunt’s announcement of the abandoning of tax cuts and a review in April of the energy subsidies are easing market concerns and pushing the Pound higher and global yields lower.
Outside of the UK fiscal news it was a mostly quiet weekend.
Today focus will be on the Empire Manufacturing Survey (E: -2.5) which is our first look at October data, and markets will want to see moderation in the headline and a continued drop in the price index, and if that occurs stocks can extend the rebound.
On the earnings front, activity ramps up later in the week but some results we’re watching today include: BAC ($0.79), SCHW ($1.05), BK ($1.10).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher as markets digest Thursday’s rebound amidst more positive news from the UK.
Support for the Truss spending/tax cut plan has totally eroded and markets are hopeful the plan will be scrapped entirely, and that’s helping global bond yields fall.
Today there are two notable economic reports, Retail Sales (E: 0.2%) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 58.8), but the key for markets will be the inflation expectations within Consumer Sentiment and if the five-year inflation expectations fall further below 3.0%, that’ll be a positive for markets. We also get two Fed speakers, George (10:00 a.m. ET) and Cook (10:30 a.m. ET) but we don’t expect them to move markets.
Earnings season also unofficially starts today and key reports to watch include: JPM ($2.97), MS ($1.51), C ($1.55), WFC ($1.09), PNC ($3.66), USB ($1.17) and FRC ($2.19). If results are better than expected, that can extend Thursday’s rebound.