“We need global growth to stabilize to help propel stocks higher from here. The currency and bond markets continue to flash large and…” Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, said in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a positive U.S/China trade article and better than expected EU economic data.
EU Money Supply (M3) rose 4.1% vs. (E) 3.9%, delivering the first upside economic surprise in Europe in some time. And, while M3 isn’t exactly a widely followed report, at this point we’ll take what good data we can get from Europe.
On trade, a Reuters article stated Chinese officials have made new concessions on IP rights and tech transfers which represents an incrementally positive step, although other issues still need to be resolved before there is a an official deal.
Today there are some notable economic reports including Final Q4 ‘18 GDP (E: 2.2%), Jobless Claims (E: 225K), and Pending Home Sales (E: -1.0%) but none of them should move markets unless there are major surprises. Similarly, there are numerous Fed speakers, Quarles (7:15 a.m. ET), Clarida (9:30 a.m. ET), Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (11:30 a.m. ET) and Bullard (6:20 p.m. ET), but again they shouldn’t move markets, either.
So, we’ll be watching bond yields as the key to whether stocks can resume the rally. If bond yields (Treasury yields and Bund yields) can move higher today, then likely so can stocks
What’s in Today’s Report: Seven “Ifs” Updated (Post FOMC and PMIs)
Stock futures are moderately higher with bond yields while the dollar is steady this morning as the volatility from late last week continues to be digested by global investors.
U.K. Parliament took control of the Brexit process from Prime Minister May late yesterday but the news is not having a material impact on markets so far today and there were no market moving economic releases overnight.
In the U.S. today, several reports on the housing market are due out this morning: Housing Starts (E: 1.201M), S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.3%), and FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%) while Consumer Confidence (E: 132.5) will hit in the first hour of trading.
Additionally, there are two Fed speakers ahead of the bell: Harker (8:00 a.m. ET) and then Rosengren (8:30 a.m. ET).
While a lot of news will hit this morning between the economic data and Fed chatter, the primary focus of the stock market will be bond yields and the curve. If yields continued to fall and the curve flattens further, stocks will have a very hard time staying in positive territory as growth concerns will continue to weigh on sentiment.
Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on March 20, 2019. “The single most prominent bullish influence on stocks right now is the dovish Fed, and the run to fresh five-month…” Click here to read full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. futures are higher this morning as trader focus turns to the Fed meeting while good economic data in Europe helped drive gains in international markets overnight.
U.K. unemployment fell to a multi-decade low of 3.9% in February according to the latest Labour Market report while the Business Expectations component of the German ZEW Survey was –3.6 vs. (E) -11.0 underscoring a less pessimistic outlook on the economy by analysts.
A sense of “Fed paralysis” has already begun to fall over markets this week as the FOMC meeting begins today and trader focus has largely shifted to tomorrow’s announcement and press conference.
As far as catalysts go today, there is one economic report: Factory Orders (E: 0.1%) but the single data point’s influence on the market is likely to be limited with the Fed looming tomorrow.
The Dow Is Set to Drop Because Boeing Is Still a Problem
But for now, there’s nothing, and it just might stay that way. “Unless we get a surprise U.S./China trade headline (and chatter there seems to be…” Click here to read the article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are only slightly lower despite disappointing U.S./China trade headlines over the weekend and more underwhelming global economic data.
The South China Morning Post reported that a Trump/Xi trade summit (to end the trade war) might not happen until June, later than the current April expectation, as talks on key issues continue to drag out.
Global economic data remained underwhelming as Japanese exports missed expectations, falling –1.2% vs. (E) 0.7%.
Today there is only one economic report, Housing Market Index (E: 63.0), and no Fed speakers (they’re in the blackout period ahead of Wednesday’s meeting) so unless we get a surprise U.S./China trade headline (and chatter there seems to be rising following the weekend) I’d expect digestion of last week’s big rally.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Our regular editor is out today so my apologies for any uptick in typos.
Futures are modestly higher following more optimistic chatter on U.S./China trade and Chinese economic growth.
Chinese officials again reiterated support for their economy overnight and that, combined with renewed optimism for a U.S./China trade deal, sent futures higher. But, I do want to point out that nothing materially new happened overnight – it was jus more of the same commentary we’ve seen for the past month or so.
There were no notable economic reports overnight.
Today focus will be on economic data as we get our first look at March activity via the Empire State Manufacturing Survey (E: 10.0) along with Industrial Production (E: 0.4%), Consumer Sentiment E: 95.0) and January JOLTS (E: 7.155M). Again, the stronger the data, the better for stocks.
Finally, today is “Quadruple Witching” options expiration so don’t be surprised by some volatility, especially into the close.
What’s in Today’s Edition:
Stock futures are bouncing modestly this morning after the worst Christmas Eve selloff in history took place on Monday which saw all of the major indexes fall well over 2%.
News flows were mostly quiet over the last 48 hours however President Trump did make supportive comments regarding Secretary Mnuchin after he spooked markets Monday and continued to blame the Fed for the recent selloff.
There were no economic reports overnight.
There is not a lot on the calendar today as there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak and there is just one economic report to watch: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI (E: 0.4%).
As a result, investor focus will remain on U.S. politics and global growth as they have been the main reasons for the most recent stock declines.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher as markets bounce following Wednesday’s post Fed selloff.
It was a quiet night of news as there were no new headlines on trade, and most commentary focused on the takeaways of the Fed decision.
Economically, UK data was mixed as Nov. Retail Sales were strong (1.4% vs. (E) 0.3%) while Dec. Distributive Trades were weak (-13 vs. (E) 15).
Today focus will remain on the economic data, which becomes even more important in the face of the not dovish enough Fed. We get to notable reports today, Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: 16.5) and if the later misses expectations, look for more selling.
