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Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Is Europe Finally Ready to Grow?
  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)

Futures are modestly higher following Thursday’s declines on solid tech earnings and as markets look ahead to today’s jobs report.

Broadcom (AVGO) earnings beat estimates and the stock is up 11% pre-market and that’s helping tech bounce.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders badly missed expectations, falling –7.0% vs. (E) -0.9%.

Today the two big scheduled events are the jobs report and Powell’s speech.  For the jobs report expectations are 160K Job-Adds, 4.0% UE Rate, 4.1% Wages y/y.  In-line data will push back hard on stagflation fears and likely fuel a bounce in stocks (as long as there are no negative tariff headlines).

For the Fed, Powell (12:30 p.m. ET) is the most important speaker but we also hear from Williams & Bowman (10:15 a.m. ET) and Kugler (1:00 p.m. ET).  As long as those officials (especially Powell) reinforce that they expect rate cuts, it should help support markets.

Jobs Report Preview (Does the Growth Scare Get Worse?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Does the Growth Scare Get Worse?)

Futures are sharply lower on a combination of ongoing trade anxiety and disappointing earnings.

On tariffs, there was no news overnight but despite the one-month exemption of autos, trade uncertainty and volatility remains a major headwind on stocks.

On earnings, MRVL results underwhelmed and tech is getting hit as a result (MRVL is down –15% pre-market).

Focus today will, of course, stay on tariffs and trade and there are some reports suggesting agricultural products could also be exempted from tariffs (if so, that’d be another incremental positive but it won’t cure the policy/trade chaos currently impacting markets).

Economically, there are two notable reports today:  Jobless Claims (E: 244K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 3.0%) and better than expected numbers in both will help to support stocks.  Finally, there are several Fed speakers today but with so much policy volatility, Fed speak has been rendered relatively unimportant for the time being (the Fed can’t do anything about tariffs).  Speakers today include: Harker (8:45 a.m. ET), Waller (3:30 p.m. ET) and Bostic (7:00 p.m. ET).

 

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Where Is the Trump Put?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Is the Trump Put?
  • Chart – NVDA Violates Support
  • Chart – Atlanta FED GDPNow Collapses to Negative Territory
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest the latest developments in the emerging global trade war.

The Trump administration confirmed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico went into effect overnight while tariffs on China were increased from 10% to 20%, prompting retaliatory trade policy actions from those nations which added to trade-war uncertainties.

Economically, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate fell to 6.2% vs. (E) 6.3% which saw global yields rise modestly.

Looking into today’s session, there is one second-tiered economic report to watch: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.9 million) and one Fed speaker in the afternoon: Williams (2:20 p.m. ET).

Additionally, we will get quarterly earnings from more big-name retailers today which could shed further light on consumer spending trends including: TGT ($2.25), BBY ($2.40), JWN ($0.90), and ROST ($1.65).

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye

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“Where’s the Trump Put?”: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Up in Late Hours on Hints of Tariff Relief: Markets Wrap

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on March 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Credit Spreads Confirming Growth Worries?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Credit Spreads Confirming Growth Worries?

Futures are bouncing modestly after Thursday’s declines and following better than expected EU inflation data.

Regional German, French and Italian inflation metrics were better than expected, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut from the ECB next week.

On tariffs, there was no new news overnight, but Trump will likely speak with reporters again during/following his meeting with Zelensky later today.

Today focus will be on the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and put simply, this number needs to come in at or under expectations to ease inflation anxiety and help support stocks.

On the trade front, Trump will be signing a minerals deal with Ukrainian President Zelensky this morning and while there’s nothing specific about trade on the agenda, it’s possible Trump talks about tariffs, which obviously could move markets.

Finally, we have one Fed speaker today, Barkin at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Four Reasons Investors Are Worried About Washington

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Investors Worried About Washington? (Four Reasons)
  • Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Adds to Growth Fears

Futures are slightly lower as most global markets declined overnight, led by Asian tech stocks, after President Trump reiterated tariff plans for Canada and Mexico and revealed new plans limiting China’s semiconductor industry.

Today, there are two housing market reports to watch: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), before the more important economic release of the day, Consumer Confidence (E: 103.0) is due to be released shortly after the opening bell.

Following a string of weak economic reports in recent days, the market will be looking for some more upbeat and stable growth and consumer confidence figures today to help equities stabilize.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker in the early afternoon: Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to move bond yields and impact equity market trading.

Finally, earnings season continues with a few notable companies reporting today including: HD ($3.04), KDP ($0.57), AMC ($-0.16), AXON ($1.41), and INTU ($2.58).

Why Stocks Dropped Last Week (New Reason)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped Last Week (New Reason)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  A Big Week for Tech & Inflation (NVDA Earnings Wed, Core PCE Price Index Friday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Does Data This Week Increase Growth Concerns?

Futures are enjoying a solid bounce following a mostly quiet weekend of news and ahead of a catalyst filled week.

Economically, data from Europe was solid as German Ifo Business Expectations were slightly better than expected (85.4 vs. (E) 85.0) while Euro Zone Core HICP (their CPI) met expectations (2.7% y/y).

Politically, German elections went largely as expected with center-right parties CDU/CSU winning while the far-right AfD party slightly underperformed vs. expectations.

Today there are no notable economic reports so barring any surprise policy headlines on tariffs or trade, it should be a relatively quiet start to the week (although it will get busier as the week progresses).

Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market

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Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

Oil recoups some of its recent losses as U.S. imposes fresh sanctions on Iran

Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran announced Monday “invited a modest bid to the market” and the news helped U.S. benchmark prices defend the psychological $70 level, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch on Monday.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on February 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

Futures are little changed following slightly disappointing economic data overnight.

EU and UK flash PMIs underwhelmed as the EU Services PMI declined to 50.7 vs. (51.5) while the UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 vs. (E) 48.5, underscoring the economic headwinds facing the EU and UK.

Today focus will stay on economic data and the two key reports are the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.3) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0).  Markets will want to see in-line to slightly weak readings but most importantly, no big jumps in the price indices like we saw in Empire and Philly earlier this week.

Other notable events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.16 million) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 68.0) as well as two Fed speakers:  Jefferson (11:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:30 a.m. ET).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest fresh tariff threats from President Trump and more “hot” inflation data out of Europe, both of which are driving global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s House Price Index fell -5.0% in January rekindling concerns about the nation’s housing sector while UK CPI was 3.0% vs. (E) 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December, stoking inflation fears and adding upward pressure to bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.397M) before the January FOMC Meeting Minutes will come into focus in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

There is also one Fed speaker but not until after the close: Jefferson (5:00 p.m. ET) while we will get a few noteworthy (but not likely market-moving) earnings releases from ETSY ($0.95), CVNA ($0.32), and TOST ($0.06).