Since those lows near 3,800 in the S&P 500 there has been real progress: China is reopening and hopefully the economy will be close to operating at near-full capacity within a month. That will add a large tail-wind to the global economy, and perhaps most importantly, ease supply chain stress…Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report said in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly higher thanks to positive news from China.
The economic reopening in China progressed over the weekend as COVID cases continued to decline, authorities relaxed more restrictions in Beijing, and none of the fifty largest cities in China have intense restrictions in place.
Also in China, the WSJ reported authorities may soon end their probe into Didi, and that might also signal an end to the government crackdown on Chinese tech stocks (if so that’d be a major positive for Chinese tech names and a peripheral positive for tech stocks more broadly).
Today there are no notable economic reports or Fed speakers, so it should be a generally quiet day of news. Across the pond, UK Prime Minister Johnson faces a “no confidence” vote in Parliament, but he’s expected to survive it (if he doesn’t, that could be a surprise negative for stocks today but again that is unlikely).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher following a night of mixed earnings and continued reopening in China.
Shanghai continued to reopen and Beijing is still avoiding the most draconian lockdowns and that’s helping broader market sentiment.
Economic data was sparse as the only notable report was Euro Zone M3 (6.2% vs. (E) 6.3%) but that’s not moving markets.
Today the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3%, 4.9%) and if it underwhelms vs. expectations and furthers the idea that inflation has peaked, look for a continuation of this week’s rally. We also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 59.1) and the key there will be the five-year inflation expectations. If they drop below 3.0%, that’ll be an additional positive for stocks today.
Above 4,600 in the S&P 500, markets have now traded through most fundamental bounds of valuation, and for this rally to continue, we’ll need to see real, actual positive events (not just events that aren’t as bad as feared)…Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report said in a note to clients Wednesday. Click here to read the full article.
Above 4,600 in the S&P 500, markets have now traded through most fundamental bounds of valuation, and for this rally to continue, we’ll need to see real actual positive events…Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Markets are trading with a clear risk-on tone today as U.S. stock futures track big gains in European shares, while both the dollar and oil decline on potential progress towards an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Earlier today, Kremlin Press Secretary, Peskov, noted that sanctions by the West are making Russia “think carefully” about the situation and that Russia will continue with talks with Ukraine, spurring fresh optimism for a peace deal.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch in the morning: JOLTS (E: 10.90M), and then a 10-Yr Treasury Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The market’s main focus will remain Russia/Ukraine today as this morning’s risk-on money flows are being driven by perceived progress towards a ceasefire deal ahead of tomorrow’s scheduled talks in Turkey. And if news flow about the conflict is generally positive, oil continues to decline on fading geopolitical concerns, and the S&P 500 can top yesterday’s intraday highs, a relief rally could really gain momentum today.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat and international markets traded mixed through a quiet night of news however Treasury yields notably continued to grind higher overnight.
Economically, the January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 97.1 vs. (E) 97.5 but the release is not materially moving markets this morning.
Looking into today’s session, there is just one lesser followed economic report due out: International Trade in Goods (E: -$83.0B), which should not have a major impact on trading, while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
Earnings season is already beginning to wind down but a few notable releases today include: PFE ($0.85), BP ($1.18), and PTON (-$1.18).
Bottom line, investors are continuing to digest last week’s jobs print and looking ahead to the CPI report on Thursday as the main driver of the market remains central bank policy expectations. There is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET today and with an otherwise quiet calendar the results could move markets (strong auction = dovish, stocks can rebound; weak auction = hawkish, volatility likely to rise).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are firmly higher as trader focus shifts ahead to the Fed while investors digest mostly upbeat earnings.
MSFT initially fell by 7%+ after earnings yesterday but a positive outlook by management during the investor call has helped shares turn positive and rise by more than 4%.
Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports due out this morning: International Trade in Goods (E: -$95.1B) and New Home Sales (E 760K) but neither should move markets ahead of the FOMC Announcement (2:00 p.m. ET) and Fed Chair Press Conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will be the main events today.
Earnings today include: BA (-$0.09), T ($0.76), FCX ($0.96), PGR ($0.99), TSLA ($2.26), INTC ($0.90), STX ($2.36), RJF ($1.77).
Bottom line, the market is coiled up after the volatile start to the week and whether the Fed is dovish or hawkish today will decide whether we see a relief rally or break down to new lows.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are trading off of the overnight lows but still down roughly 1% as yesterday’s volatile session is digested ahead of the Fed while IBM posted strong Q4 earnings yesterday and economic data largely met estimates overnight.
The FOMC meeting begins today which will increasingly capture trader focus ahead of tomorrow’s announcement and press conference.
Economically, we get two reports on the housing market this morning: the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.0%) and the FHFA House Price Index (E: 1.0%) but Consumer Confidence (E: 111.9) will be the more important number to watch given the growing uncertainty about the state of the economic recovery. Another bad print like we saw with yesterday’s Composite PMI Flash could send stocks lower.
There is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and investors will be looking for strong demand (which would reflect dovish shifting Fed expectations) as we saw with yesterday’s 2-Yr auction which helped stocks bottom and reversed so sharply in intraday trade.
Finally, on the earnings front, we will hear from: JNJ ($2.12), VZ ($1.28), GE ($0.83), MMM ($2.03), and AXP ($1.78) before the open, and then MSFT ($2.29), TXN ($1.95), and COF ($5.14) after the close.
What’s in Today’s Report:
U.S. stock futures are bouncing modestly after yesterday’s steep selloff as the surge in bond yields is showing signs of pausing after some mixed inflation data overnight.
German CPI met estimates of 0.5% in December, while U.K. PPI was 0.3% vs. (E) 0.6%, which is helping to ease some inflation concerns today.
Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts and Permits (E: 1.65M, 1.710M) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak today.
There is a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could spark another move in yields (a further rise in rates will continue to weigh on high valuation/growth tech stocks and the broader market while a pullback will open the door to a relief rally).
Finally, earnings season is continuing to pick up with BAC ($0.76), MS ($2.00), UNH ($4.30), PG ($1.65), and CFG ($1.61) all reporting ahead of the bell while UAL ($2.23), AA ($2.04), and DFS ($3.61) will release results after the close.
Bottom line, rising yields have been the biggest influence on stocks in recent sessions so it will take a stabilizing bond market and likely an additional positive catalyst or two (such as good earnings/good economic data) to see equity markets find their footing and rally today.