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Signs of an AI bubble and an increasingly stressed consumers could dampen enthusiasm for stocks, says Tom Essaye.

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Signs of an AI bubble and an increasingly stressed lower-income consumer could dampen investors’ enthusiasm for stocks, says Tom Essaye

Three scenarios that could spook stocks in October, according to a Wall Street veteran

Signs of an AI bubble and an increasingly stressed lower-income consumer could dampen investors’ enthusiasm for stocks, says Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.

There are a few things that could spook investors in October, or the coming months.

As Halloween decorations start to appear in storefronts and on front porches across the U.S., one Wall Street veteran has decided to take a closer look at three scenarios that could spook markets as the fourth quarter gets underway.

“Over the weekend, my family and I decorated our house and yard for Halloween. While doing so, it dawned on me that much of the financial media and analyst community isn’t accurately portraying this market reality: The outlook for stocks and risk assets remains positive, but if things start to turn bad, the situation becomes downright scary from a return standpoint,” said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, in commentary shared with MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on October 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

October Market Multiple Table

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • October Market Multiple Table Update

Stock futures are trading back to flat after overnight weakness amid mostly quiet news flow.

Economically, German Manufacturing Orders fell -0.8% vs. (E) +1.3% in August but the news is being digested as modestly dovish (market positive) rather than a fresh source of growth concern.

Today, data on International Trade in Goods (E: $-61.0B) and Consumer Credit (E: $13.5B) were due to be released but both are likely to be impacted/delayed due to the government shutdown which will leave focus on Fed speak and Treasury auction results.

On those fronts, it is a relatively busy day with Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET), Bowman (10:05 a.m. ET), Miran (10:30 a.m.), and Kashkari (11:30 a.m. ET) all due to speak over the course of the day before there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Investors are pricing in a dovish Fed between now and yearend so anything that doesn’t support that outlook could prompt volatility.

Finally, there is one late season earnings release worth noting: MKC ($0.81).

 

Weak ADP Data Not a Red Flag Yet, Says Tom Essaye

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Essaye highlights resilience in labor market and favors natural resources ETF

Weak Jobs Numbers Won’t Derail a Hot Economy. 3 ETFs to Buy.

The latest ADP National Employment Report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, but Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said the data shouldn’t alarm investors. He noted that Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures—typically more reliable—still indicate modest job growth.

“Unemployment remains low,” Essaye said, adding that it would take convincingly poor readings across multiple data sources to pose a serious threat to the economic outlook. “That’s not close to happening right now,” he emphasized.

Looking for opportunities in the current environment, Essaye recommended the FlexShares Global Upstream Natural Resources Index Fund (GUNR), citing its exposure to oil producers, chemical manufacturers, and basic materials companies. He said these firms could see rising profits as demand for commodities strengthens alongside steady consumer and business spending.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on October 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance as the Government Shutdown Looms

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Gov’t shutdown could mean no clean jobs data until December

The US government is expected to shut down if Congress cannot reach a deal by Sept. 30. Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said it’s not the shutdown itself that poses a threat to markets, but the disruption to economic data.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance as Gold hits $3.8K

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Gold hits $3.8K, but investors should ‘wait’: Here’s why

Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré outlines the details of the commodity’s rise, and Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye examines the precious metal from an investment perspective.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Quoted in AInvest.com

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Dow Theory’s warning sign continues to flash

FedEx Earnings to Provide Clues on Stock Market Rally’s Fate

While the Dow Theory’s warning sign continues to flash, some strategists argue that it has little merit in the digital age, missing out on the significant role of vertically integrated retailers like Amazon and Walmart that handle their own shipping and delivery. Nevertheless, the Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey suggests that the Dow Theory should be used in conjunction with other indicators to get a full picture of the economy.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on September 18th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Weighs on AI Trade as Alphabet Hits $3 Trillion Milestone

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Essaye flags next Big Tech contender for record valuation

Google hits $3T market cap. This Big Tech name could be next.

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid to discuss the Google parent company’s recent gains and what it signals about the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. He also shares another Big Tech name that he thinks could be the next to hit $3 trillion.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

September Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Update – What’s Changed Since August?

Futures are slightly higher while overseas equity markets were mixed overnight amid quiet newswires as the global bond rally stalls and investor focus turns to inflation data due later in the week.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8 vs. (E) 100.5 in August.

There are no additional economic reports in the U.S. today, and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

The Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and both have the potential to impact fixed income markets which could reverberate through equity markets (the stronger the demand, the better).

Finally some late season earnings to watch include: SAIL ($0.04), ORCL ($1.15), GME ($0.19), SNPS ($2.76), AVAV ($0.34), however, with the PPI and CPI reports due out tomorrow and Thursday, respectively, markets will more than likely remain quiet today.

 

Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview

Futures are slightly higher despite underwhelming earnings and mixed economic data overnight.

Salesforce (CRM) guidance was underwhelming and the stock is down –7% pre-market, adding to pressure on tech.

Economically, UK retail sales missed estimates (-0.5% vs. (E) -0.1%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on two of the three remaining important events of the week:  The ISM Services PMI (E: 50.5) and Broadcom (AVGO) earnings after the close.  Ideally, markets will want to see the ISM Services PMI move higher and not drop below 50, while strong AVGO earnings ($1.35) and guidance will help push back on some of the recent tech sector weakness that’s been a headwind for the S&P 500.

Other notable events today include ADP Employment (E: 68K), Jobless Claims (E: 232K) and two Fed speakers: Williams (12:05 p.m. ET) and Goolsbee (7:00 p.m. ET).  Broadly speaking, the stronger the two employment reports and the more dovish the Fed speakers, the better for this market.

Finally, other earnings today include LULU ($2.84) and DOCU ($0.23).

 

How the “Degenerate Economy” Can Help Us Navigate This Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How the Degenerate Economy Can Help Us Navigate This Market
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

U.S. stock futures are solidly higher this morning, led by tech shares with GOOGL up 6%+ after a favorable court ruling saw the company avoid severe antitrust penalties while international stocks were mixed as bonds steadied in the wake of an early week spike in yields.

Economically, the final Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 51.0 vs. (E) 51.1 in August due to a weak Services index revision but the data is not materially moving markets focused on renewed tech sector strength this morning.

Today, focus will be on economic data early as jobs week kicks off the July JOLTS report (E: 7.375 million) while Factory Orders data from July will also be released mid-morning (E: -1.4%).

There are two Fed speakers today: Musalem (9:00 a.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:30 p.m. ET). As far as stocks are concerned the more dovish their tone, the better as investors are pricing in a September rate cut with a high degree of certainty.

Finally, late seasons earnings continue to be released with quarterly reports from DLTR ($0.38), HPE ($0.36), M ($0.19), CPB ($0.57), CRM ($2.12), AEO ($0.20), and AI (-$0.81) all due out today.