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3 Market Cycles in 8 Months: How to Trade What’s Coming Next

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Sevens Report breaks down past trends to prepare investors for the future

3 markets in eight months — understanding the playbook for what’s next

3 PHASES. 8 MONTHS. 1 STRATEGY TO STAY AHEAD.

According to Sevens Report, the past eight months saw U.S. markets shift through three clear phases — each tied to macroeconomic policy and sentiment:

  1. Trumponomics Euphoria (Nov–Jan):
    Fueled by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and GOP control.

    • S&P 500 +5.4%

    • Cyclicals like financials and consumer discretionary outperformed.

  2. Recession Paranoia (Feb–Apr):
    Escalating tariff threats and erratic policy execution spooked investors.

    • S&P 500 −7.86%

    • Defensives like utilities and staples led.

  3. Ignoring Macro, Chasing Growth (May–Present):
    Trade concerns eased, and investor focus shifted to AI-led growth.

    • Rally led by NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet

    • AI tech and intrinsic-growth names dominate.

“Understanding what defined them and the strategies that outperformed will help us 1) Identify the next type of market and 2) Outperform.”

What’s next depends on trade clarity and growth outlook:

  • Improved clarity = return of Trumponomics

  • Worsening outlook = back to Recession Paranoia

  • Lingering uncertainty = AI tech continues to lead

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on July 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A New Type of Research Offering

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A New Type of Research from Sevens Report – Introducing “Special Reports”
  • Economic Takeaways – CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Tamp Down Dovish Policy Hopes
  • Why September Rate Cut Odds Are Receding (Slightly)

Futures are little changed while there is a tentative bid in the bond market as investors continue to digest the June CPI release and look ahead to more earnings today.

Economically, U.K. CPI rose +0.2% to 3.6% y/y vs. (E) 3.4% which is bolstering the pound and weighing modestly on the dollar index this morning as well as capping a rebound in bonds.

Looking into today’s session, the second important inflation print of the week is due to be released before the bell with PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y), and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y) scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET while Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.

A busy week of Fed speak also continues with multiple officials delivering remarks today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET), and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET).

The market will be looking for any signs of “cooler” inflation or modest slowing in growth to rekindle September rate cut hopes which would offer fresh support for the equity market rally.

Finally, earnings season continues with multiple notable companies releasing quarter results today including ASML ($5.94), BAC ($0.86), GS ($9.43), MS ($1.93), JNJ ($2.66), PGR ($4.30), UAL ($3.86), and KMI ($0.28).

Stock Vigilantes May Push Back If Trump Escalates Tariffs Says Tom Essaye

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Sevens Report warns equity markets won’t tolerate unchecked trade risks

‘Stock vigilantes’ could rebel against Trump’s tariffs: Sevens Report

WALL STREET MAY SOON SEND A MESSAGE IF TARIFF THREATS TURN TO ACTION

So far, investors have largely shrugged off Trump’s tariff rhetoric, assuming he won’t follow through on aggressive trade threats.

But according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, that complacency may soon fade if tariffs actually hit.

“It’s possible that stock vigilantes could appear… If Trump views the new highs in stocks as a ‘green light’ to escalate the trade war, it may well have to decline to remind the administration…”

Essaye argues that the U.S. economy can absorb around 10% aggregate tariffs, but anything more could threaten a return to stagflation-like conditions.

The term “stock vigilantes” borrows from “bond vigilantes”—investors who sell U.S. debt in protest of fiscal mismanagement. This time, equities could become the market’s way of saying “enough.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 14th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

Stock futures rallied to fresh all-time highs overnight thanks to news the U.S. government will ease restrictions on chip sales to China, specifically some of NVDA’s more powerful AI-chips as CPI data and big bank earnings loom.

There are a slew of potential market catalysts this morning starting with inflation data as CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) data for June will be released ahead of the bell along with one of the first July economic reports, the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-10.0).

Investors will be looking for data that pushes back on stagflation or hard landing scenarios to keep the stock rally going.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak including Bowman (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (12:45 p.m. ET), Barkin 1:00 p.m. ET), and Collins (2:45 p.m. ET). The market will be looking for positive economic commentary and/or hints of a potential rate cut this month.

Finally, today also marks the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season with several big banks and other noteworthy U.S. companies reporting results including: JPM ($4.51), C ($1.61), BLK ($10.78), WFC ($1.41), BK ($1.74), STT ($2.36), JBHT ($1.34). The stronger the corporate results, the better as strong earnings growth is priced in for the year ahead with equities trading at current levels.

Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do tariffs start to boost inflation this month?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Important inflation and growth updates this week.

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff threats over the weekend.

President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and non-USMCA goods from Mexico starting August 1st, although the modest decline in markets still implies investors think tariff rates will be negotiated lower ahead of the deadline.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Chinese exports, which beat expectations (5.8% vs. (E) 5.0%).

This week is an important one from an economic standpoint as we’ll get important updates on inflation (via CPI & PPI) and growth (via retail sales), but the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today.

On earnings, the Q2 reporting season begins to heat up this week via big bank earnings, although today the only notable report to watch is FAST ($0.28).

ASX Nears Record Although U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Global Outlook

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Tom Essaye warns Fed may delay cuts until trade policy stabilizes

ASX on track to break record; big miners jump

AUSTRALIAN MINERS SURGE WHILE U.S. POLICY RISKS SIMMER

The ASX is on track to hit a new record as mining stocks jump, but U.S. trade and rate policy remain a source of global market concern.

According to Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, Trump’s unpredictable tariff strategy could force the Fed to delay a rate cut beyond September.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by August 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Even if Trump sticks to the current deadline, Essaye warns, markets expect a delay, which pushes rate decisions further into the year.

“The Fed will want to wait a few months to see what impact these new tariff rates have on the economy.”

Essaye also noted a potential political backlash if higher-for-longer rates persist, which could escalate tensions between Trump and Fed Chair Powell.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Indopremier.com published on July 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Stocks Hit Highs as Airlines Lead But Tariff Delays Threaten Outlook

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Tom Essaye warns delayed trade policy could derail rate cut expectations

U.S. Stocks Reach New Highs as Airlines Soar, Trade Tensions Persist

TRADE POLICY CLOUDS THE OUTLOOK DESPITE STOCK GAINS

U.S. stocks reached new highs Thursday, boosted by a rally in airline shares, but analysts are sounding caution as tariff uncertainty lingers.

Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, warned that fluctuating trade policies are likely to impact Fed decisions in the coming months.

“The likelihood of a clear tariff policy before August 1 is zero… which means a July rate cut is off the table.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye emphasized that continued delays in trade clarity reduce the odds of a September cut and increase the risk of a longer high-rate environment.

“That raises the risk of economic slowdown.”

Despite bullish price action, underlying policy risks remain unresolved, keeping markets exposed to macro-driven pullbacks.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on AInvest.com published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Markets Hold Up Despite Tariff Risk, Sevens Report Urges Caution

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Tom Essaye warns a deeper selloff is possible if negative headlines persist

US Stocks End Slightly Lower in Week Roiled by Tariff Headlines

TARIFF UNCERTAINTY LOOMS OVER MARKETS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND

U.S. stocks ended slightly lower Friday after a volatile week driven by ongoing tariff headlines. While markets showed notable resilience, the risk of escalation remains very real, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

“Markets have been impressively resilient… but if negative trade headlines continue, don’t be surprised if this early selloff accelerates.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye emphasized that tariff rates may climb far higher than expected, and the market may be underpricing the potential fallout.

“…because tariff rates are possibly going much, much higher than previously expected.”

With investor focus shifting toward the Fed’s next move and earnings season ahead, any further deterioration in trade sentiment could trigger renewed volatility.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on July 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

S&P 500 Hits New High, But Delayed Tariff Policy May Block Rate Cuts

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Tom Essaye warns unclear trade policy may prolong high rates and slow growth

S&P 500 Rises to Record as Treasury Sale Goes Well: Markets Wrap

TREASURY AUCTION BOOSTS STOCKS—BUT POLICY RISKS STILL LOOM

The S&P 500 climbed to a fresh record Thursday as a strong Treasury auction eased market concerns over demand for U.S. debt. But Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye cautions that persistent tariff uncertainty may soon weigh on investor optimism.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye says the real risk lies in the ripple effect: delayed trade policy could weaken the odds of a September rate cut, keeping rates elevated and increasing the chance of an economic slowdown.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

As equities surge, markets may be pricing in too much optimism while ignoring trade-related policy drag that could resurface later this quarter.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Swissinfo.ch published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Earnings Drive S&P 500 Higher As Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

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Tom Essaye says unclear trade policy could block rate cuts and slow growth

S&P 500 at Record as Corporate Earnings Offset Tariff Jitters

RECORD HIGHS MET WITH POLICY RISKS AHEAD OF FED’S NEXT MOVE

The S&P 500 opened at record levels on Thursday, lifted by strong corporate earnings—but not all strategists are celebrating.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, warns that persistent tariff uncertainty could reduce the chances of a September rate cut and heighten the risk of a broader economic slowdown.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

According to Essaye, the “consistently delayed” tariff timeline is already having a practical impact by extending the higher-for-longer rate environment.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

Without a clear trade policy resolution, investors may soon be forced to weigh strong earnings against an increasingly restrictive policy backdrop.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here