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Sevens Report Puts S&P 500’s Powerful 3-Year Run in Perspective

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Recent gains rank among the strongest three-year returns in market history.

Putting the S&P 500’s strong 3-year return in context

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 wrapped up a three-year stretch that saw it gain about 84%, according to Sevens Report Research.

That places it among the index’s strongest three-year returns in the history of the U.S. stock market, said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research. To be more precise, this return ranks in the 94th percentile of three-year returns over the past 100 years.

The best three-year return for the S&P 500 during that time occurred from 1995 to 1997 — +125.6% — the second-best occurred between 1933 and 1935 — +124.1% — and the third-best occurred from 1926 to 1928 — +120.4%. In each case, the index was lower five years later.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Nvidia, AMD Deal with Trump Administration Eases AI Investor Fears: Tom Essaye

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Chip sales to China continue under new revenue-sharing agreement

Nvidia & AMD investors can put China chip tariff risks ‘to bed’

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye and Allspring Global’s John Campbell discussed reports that Nvidia and AMD reached a deal with the Trump administration to resume selling chips in China, with 15% of the revenue going to the U.S. government.

Essaye said the agreement signals that the companies are “ready to play ball” with policymakers to protect growth in the AI sector. “Eighty-five percent is a lot more than zero,” he noted, calling the resolution a relief for AI-focused investors now that a major uncertainty has been removed.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)
  • Gold Chart: Fragile Record Highs

Futures are flat as traders look ahead to today’s all-important CPI report.

Economically, the U.K.’s Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.7%, as expected, while the German ZEW Survey missed estimates, but the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 vs. (E) 98.9 from 98.6 in June.

Today, market focus will be almost exclusively on inflation data before the bell with CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

After the open, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET) and Schmid (10:30 a.m. ET), and any comments or insights they may offer in reaction to the CPI data could move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are a handful of companies due to report quarterly results today which could move markets, including: CAH ($2.03), SE ($0.72), RGTI ($-0.05), HRB ($2.81), CRCL ($-1.29), and ETOR ($0.49).

 

Tom Essaye Warns AI-Driven Stock Surge Shows Classic Bubble Traits

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Sevens Report founder sees parallels with past late-cycle manias

US Stocks Drop as Investors Wait on CPI Data to Set Fed’s Path

The current equity rally may be entering bubble territory, according to Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, who advises some of Wall Street’s largest firms. Essaye points to weakening U.S. economic conditions alongside stretched valuations, with the S&P 500 up 28% since April and 57% since ChatGPT’s debut in November 2022.

In an August 1 client note, Essaye compared today’s AI-fueled rally to past bubbles, such as the internet and real estate booms, where a single narrative drove expectations of “unlimited earnings growth” across sectors. He warns that the AI theme now plays that role, creating risks for advisors managing long-term portfolios.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on The Wealth Advisor published on August 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

MMT Chart: A “Relatively” Different Look at Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August MMT Chart Update: A “Relatively” Different Look at Stocks
  • ISM Services Index – A Fresh “Whiff” of Stagflation
  • Stagflation Risks Set Gold Up for Run to Record Highs

Futures are tracking global markets higher this morning as investors shrug off both the ISM Services Index from yesterday, which carried a whiff of stagflation, and soft earnings from semiconductor giants AMD (-7%) and SMCI (-17%) after the close yesterday.

Economically, EU Retail Sales rose 3.1% vs. (E) 2.6% which is serving to tamp down worries about the health of the global economy.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released.

However, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and investors will look for the recent trend of healthy demand metrics to continue, despite the sharp drop in yields since Friday’s dismal jobs report.

Additionally, there are a few Fed officials scheduled to speak who could shed light on the prospects of a September rate cut (which is increasingly expected) including Cook & Collins (2:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (3:10 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues with MCD ($3.15), UBER ($0.62), SHOP ($0.20), DIS ($1.47), NRG ($1.54), ABNB ($0.93), and ET ($0.32) all reporting quarterly results today.

For now, investors are overlooking the soft semiconductor earnings from late yesterday, however, any Q2 results that challenge the idea that the consumer remains resilient and healthy in 2025, could add to recession worries and pressure stocks again today.

 

Market Multiple Table: August Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Market Multiple Table: How Much Deterioration Has Occurred?

U.S. futures are higher thanks to good economic data overseas and solid tech earnings with PLTR up 6% premarket after topping estimates and raising guidance.

Economically, China’s Services PMI unexpectedly rose from 50.6 to 52.6 vs. (E) 50.4, helping ease global growth concerns which surged following Friday’s downbeat U.S. jobs report.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with International Trade in Goods (E: $-61.5B) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 51.5) due to be released.

From there, focus will turn to the bond market as the Treasury will hold 4-Week & 52-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, all of which could shed light on investors’ outlook for Fed policy rates in the near-term.

Finally, earnings season continues with PFE ($0.58), CAT ($4.88), BP ($0.68), AMD ($0.28), AMGN ($5.26), SMCI ($0.35), and AFL ($1.71). Near all-time highs, this market will want to see continued strength in both Q2 results, as well as forward guidance in order for the rebound from last week’s pullback to gain momentum.

 

3 Market Cycles in 8 Months: How to Trade What’s Coming Next

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Sevens Report breaks down past trends to prepare investors for the future

3 markets in eight months — understanding the playbook for what’s next

3 PHASES. 8 MONTHS. 1 STRATEGY TO STAY AHEAD.

According to Sevens Report, the past eight months saw U.S. markets shift through three clear phases — each tied to macroeconomic policy and sentiment:

  1. Trumponomics Euphoria (Nov–Jan):
    Fueled by expectations of tax cuts, deregulation, and GOP control.

    • S&P 500 +5.4%

    • Cyclicals like financials and consumer discretionary outperformed.

  2. Recession Paranoia (Feb–Apr):
    Escalating tariff threats and erratic policy execution spooked investors.

    • S&P 500 −7.86%

    • Defensives like utilities and staples led.

  3. Ignoring Macro, Chasing Growth (May–Present):
    Trade concerns eased, and investor focus shifted to AI-led growth.

    • Rally led by NVIDIA, Microsoft, Alphabet

    • AI tech and intrinsic-growth names dominate.

“Understanding what defined them and the strategies that outperformed will help us 1) Identify the next type of market and 2) Outperform.”

What’s next depends on trade clarity and growth outlook:

  • Improved clarity = return of Trumponomics

  • Worsening outlook = back to Recession Paranoia

  • Lingering uncertainty = AI tech continues to lead

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on July 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A New Type of Research Offering

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A New Type of Research from Sevens Report – Introducing “Special Reports”
  • Economic Takeaways – CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Tamp Down Dovish Policy Hopes
  • Why September Rate Cut Odds Are Receding (Slightly)

Futures are little changed while there is a tentative bid in the bond market as investors continue to digest the June CPI release and look ahead to more earnings today.

Economically, U.K. CPI rose +0.2% to 3.6% y/y vs. (E) 3.4% which is bolstering the pound and weighing modestly on the dollar index this morning as well as capping a rebound in bonds.

Looking into today’s session, the second important inflation print of the week is due to be released before the bell with PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y), and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y) scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET while Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.

A busy week of Fed speak also continues with multiple officials delivering remarks today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET), and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET).

The market will be looking for any signs of “cooler” inflation or modest slowing in growth to rekindle September rate cut hopes which would offer fresh support for the equity market rally.

Finally, earnings season continues with multiple notable companies releasing quarter results today including ASML ($5.94), BAC ($0.86), GS ($9.43), MS ($1.93), JNJ ($2.66), PGR ($4.30), UAL ($3.86), and KMI ($0.28).

Stock Vigilantes May Push Back If Trump Escalates Tariffs Says Tom Essaye

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Sevens Report warns equity markets won’t tolerate unchecked trade risks

‘Stock vigilantes’ could rebel against Trump’s tariffs: Sevens Report

WALL STREET MAY SOON SEND A MESSAGE IF TARIFF THREATS TURN TO ACTION

So far, investors have largely shrugged off Trump’s tariff rhetoric, assuming he won’t follow through on aggressive trade threats.

But according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, that complacency may soon fade if tariffs actually hit.

“It’s possible that stock vigilantes could appear… If Trump views the new highs in stocks as a ‘green light’ to escalate the trade war, it may well have to decline to remind the administration…”

Essaye argues that the U.S. economy can absorb around 10% aggregate tariffs, but anything more could threaten a return to stagflation-like conditions.

The term “stock vigilantes” borrows from “bond vigilantes”—investors who sell U.S. debt in protest of fiscal mismanagement. This time, equities could become the market’s way of saying “enough.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 14th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

Stock futures rallied to fresh all-time highs overnight thanks to news the U.S. government will ease restrictions on chip sales to China, specifically some of NVDA’s more powerful AI-chips as CPI data and big bank earnings loom.

There are a slew of potential market catalysts this morning starting with inflation data as CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) data for June will be released ahead of the bell along with one of the first July economic reports, the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-10.0).

Investors will be looking for data that pushes back on stagflation or hard landing scenarios to keep the stock rally going.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak including Bowman (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (12:45 p.m. ET), Barkin 1:00 p.m. ET), and Collins (2:45 p.m. ET). The market will be looking for positive economic commentary and/or hints of a potential rate cut this month.

Finally, today also marks the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season with several big banks and other noteworthy U.S. companies reporting results including: JPM ($4.51), C ($1.61), BLK ($10.78), WFC ($1.41), BK ($1.74), STT ($2.36), JBHT ($1.34). The stronger the corporate results, the better as strong earnings growth is priced in for the year ahead with equities trading at current levels.