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Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as investors look ahead to trade meetings and data.

Economically, the only notable report was Euro Zone Industrial Production and it slightly missed expectations (0.8% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Politically, focus will be on two events today, the USMCA renegotiation talks between U.S. and Canadian officials and progress on avoiding a government shutdown on Friday.

Outside of trade and politics, today there are two important economic reports:  Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y).  Because of rising stagflation worries, investors will want to see better than expected numbers from both reports, while a jump in jobless claims would increase growth concerns and hotter than expected PPI would raise fears tariffs are boosting inflation (tariff price pressures will show up in PPI before CPI).

MMT Chart: S&P Targets Lowered Amid Ominous Technical Divergence

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • March MMT Chart Update: Fundamental Price Targets Lowered
  • An Increasingly Ominous Technical Divergence Has Emerged in the S&P 500

Futures are trading with tentative gains and bonds are little changed after another mostly quiet night of macroeconomic news as investors look ahead to today’s CPI report.

Economically, Japanese PPI fell from 4.2% to 4.0% y/y in February, slightly above the consensus estimate of 3.9% but the release did not meaningfully move markets ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report.

This morning, traders will be keenly focused on inflation data with CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) data due to be released ahead of the bell. A “cool” print is the best case scenario for stocks to mount a relief rally after recent losses.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and investors will be watching demand metrics to gauge bond traders reaction to the CPI data in afternoon trade (a healthy, but not too-strong auction outcome would be favorable for stocks).

Finally, earnings season continues with ADBE ($4.97) and AEO ($0.50) reporting after the close.

We can hope for is a churn sideways

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We can hope for is a churn sideways: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Trump Wants an Economic ‘Detox.’ What It Means for Stocks.

According to Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye, “until there’s some movement towards stable policy, the best we can hope for is a churn sideways between around 5,700 and 6,000 in the S&P 500.” The index broke below 5650 in morning trading Monday.

Sevens Reports’ Essaye notes that concern about tariffs so far has been worse than their effects. While it makes sense to brace for volatility, “that negative scenario is not a foregone conclusion and actual facts on the economy and earnings [are] hanging on.” he says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Is Europe Finally Ready to Grow?
  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)

Futures are modestly higher following Thursday’s declines on solid tech earnings and as markets look ahead to today’s jobs report.

Broadcom (AVGO) earnings beat estimates and the stock is up 11% pre-market and that’s helping tech bounce.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders badly missed expectations, falling –7.0% vs. (E) -0.9%.

Today the two big scheduled events are the jobs report and Powell’s speech.  For the jobs report expectations are 160K Job-Adds, 4.0% UE Rate, 4.1% Wages y/y.  In-line data will push back hard on stagflation fears and likely fuel a bounce in stocks (as long as there are no negative tariff headlines).

For the Fed, Powell (12:30 p.m. ET) is the most important speaker but we also hear from Williams & Bowman (10:15 a.m. ET) and Kugler (1:00 p.m. ET).  As long as those officials (especially Powell) reinforce that they expect rate cuts, it should help support markets.

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye

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“Where’s the Trump Put?”: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Up in Late Hours on Hints of Tariff Relief: Markets Wrap

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on March 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Caveat to Recent Negative Sentiment Reports

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Caveat to Recent Negative Sentiment Reports

Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce on solid NVDA earnings and following an otherwise quiet night of news.

NVDA earnings and guidance beat estimates and the stock is slightly higher pre-market and holding yesterday’s gains (NVDA rallied 4% into the report yesterday). The results are helping to calm DeepSeek related AI fears.

Given investor’s sudden anxiety towards economic growth, the economic data over the next two days will be important.

Today, the key reports are, in order of importance: Durable Goods (E: 1.9%), Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Revised Q4 GDP (2.3%) and Pending Home Sales (E: -1.2%).  Mostly in-line numbers, especially from Durable Goods, will help push back against the “growth scare” narrative while weak readings will only increase it (and likely pressure stocks).

We also have numerous Fed speakers today including: Barkin (7:30 a.m. ET), Schmid (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (10:00 a.m. ET), Bowman (11:45 a.m. ET), Hammack (1:15 p.m. ET) and Harker (3:15 p.m. ET).  None of them are Fed leadership so their comments shouldn’t move markets materially, but if they talk about possibly having to hike rates due to high inflation, that will be a negative.

What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Outperforms in a Policy-Driven Economic Slowdown?
  • February Consumer Confidence Takeaways
  • Chart – Case-Shiller Home Price Index Highlights Sticky Inflation Pressures

Futures are solidly higher with mega-cap tech leading the early advance amid renewed AI optimism after Chinese AI company DeepSeek reopened access to its core interface model while investors await NVDA earnings after the close (shares up ~2.5% pre-market).

There are a slew of potential market catalysts today starting with one economic report due out shortly after the open: New Home Sales (E: 680K) and two noteworthy Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET) and Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET).

Additionally, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET (important for near-term Fed policy rate expectations) and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET (important to gauge investor concerns about an economic slowdown).

Finally, there are a few notable consumer companies reporting earnings before the open including LOW ($1.83) and TJX ($1.16) but the biggest potential market moving catalyst of the day comes after the close with NVDA earnings ($0.84), as well as two other important tech-related earnings releases from CRM ($2.61) and SNOW ($0.18).

Four Reasons Investors Are Worried About Washington

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Investors Worried About Washington? (Four Reasons)
  • Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Adds to Growth Fears

Futures are slightly lower as most global markets declined overnight, led by Asian tech stocks, after President Trump reiterated tariff plans for Canada and Mexico and revealed new plans limiting China’s semiconductor industry.

Today, there are two housing market reports to watch: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), before the more important economic release of the day, Consumer Confidence (E: 103.0) is due to be released shortly after the opening bell.

Following a string of weak economic reports in recent days, the market will be looking for some more upbeat and stable growth and consumer confidence figures today to help equities stabilize.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker in the early afternoon: Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to move bond yields and impact equity market trading.

Finally, earnings season continues with a few notable companies reporting today including: HD ($3.04), KDP ($0.57), AMC ($-0.16), AXON ($1.41), and INTU ($2.58).

Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market

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Sanctions on Iran announced Monday invited a modest bid to the market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

Oil recoups some of its recent losses as U.S. imposes fresh sanctions on Iran

Fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran announced Monday “invited a modest bid to the market” and the news helped U.S. benchmark prices defend the psychological $70 level, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch on Monday.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on February 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Lowering Energy Prices To “Combat Sticky High Inflation”

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Lowering energy prices to combat sticky high inflation: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices end lower as U.S. crude supplies climb for a third week in a row

A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, or end of the war, could be bearish for oil if Trump, who is adamant about lowering energy prices to “combat sticky high inflation” pushes for an immediate removal of all sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Also, geopolitical stability may “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.”

The market’s reaction to the CPI data underscored that “higher-for-longer Fed policy is becoming increasingly likely in 2025,” Richey said. “That ultimately raises the risk that restrictive rates choke off growth and tip the economy over a fragile edge into a recession, a historically demand-crippling phase of the economic cycle for oil and refined products.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.