“The trade war remains the market’s main focus and with new tariffs going into effect over the [past] weekend, investor sentiment towards U.S.-China relations are continuing to deteriorate…” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are sharply higher on more positive U.S./China trade “chatter” and political resolution in Italy.
Chinese officials made general comments about not wanting to further escalate the trade war and won’t retaliate to the recent tariffs, and that’s helping sentiment. But, to be clear, no actual progress has occurred – just vague rhetoric, and as far as we can tell the phone call between the two delegations has not occurred yet (remember it was loosely scheduled for Tuesday). Point being, things haven’t improved as much as the two day rally would imply.
Economic data was decent as German unemployment met expectations while EU Economic Sentiment was better than expected (103.1 vs. (E) 102.5). Regarding Italy, the country will avoid new elections, and while that’s not a sustainable positive catalyst for markets, it does, for now, remove another potential headwind.
Attendance and volumes will continue to decrease into the long weekend, but focus will remain on any trade related headlines. Economically, the notable reports today include Q2 Revised GDP (E: 2.0%), Jobless Claims (E: 213K) and Pending Home Sales (E: -0.3%) although none of those should move markets.
Bottom line, if Treasury yields are stable, stocks can hold these early gains, although we continue to caution this rally is being driven by month-end positioning more than any actual, positive progress on the headwinds facing this market.
Looking at the inventory data from a trend standpoint, “it appears the stretch of steep draws in crude supply, which were offering fundamental price support to…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“Looking ahead though, the outlook for oil remains neutral at best right now as global growth concerns remain the single biggest headwind for…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
“Looking ahead though, the outlook for oil remains neutral at best right now as global growth concerns remain the single biggest…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are bouncing marginally as markets digest the Fed’s “hawkish cut” rate decision.
Economic data overnight was not as bad as feared, although it wasn’t good, either. EU (46.5 vs. (E) 46.4), British (48.0 vs. (E) 47.7) and Chinese (49.9 vs. (E) 49.5) July manufacturing PMIs all beat estimates, although they also remain below 50, signaling contraction.
Today we have an important economic report, ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 51.9) and we also get weekly Jobless Claims (E: 213K), and those numbers (especially the former) could move markets. But, beyond the data, and following the Fed’s “hawkish” decision, the keys to focus on will be the U.S. Dollar and the Treasury yield curve. If the dollar continues to grind higher and the yield curve flattens, that will be another headwind on stocks. Yesterday’s lows in the S&P 500 at 2959 are an important support level to watch if this market rolls over mid-day.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are modestly lower this morning as the market digests several disappointing earnings releases (notably CSX and NFLX) while U.S.-China trade concerns linger after multiple negative news articles were released overnight.
Economically, U.K. Retail Sales beat (1.0% vs. E: -0.3%), which is helping the pound recover from fresh 2019 lows.
News flow will remain steady today with two economic reports to watch: Jobless Claims (E: 215K) and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey (E: 4.5) while there is one Fed official scheduled to speak: Williams (2:15 p.m. ET).
Over the last 24-36 hours, earnings became a more significant driver of the broader stock market so today’s corporate results will be important to watch. Before the bell UNH ($3.46), MS ($1.13), HON ($2.08), and UNP ($2.12) all release results and MSFT ($1.21), and COF ($2.84) will report after the bell.
Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research wrote in a note to clients, “Near term, the trend is still higher. But formidable technical resistance…” Click here to read the full article.
“Near term, the trend is still higher, but formidable technical resistance in the mid-$60s and persistent demand concerns due to…” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research in Florida, wrote in a note to clients. Click here to read the full Bloomberg article.
“Geopolitics, and more specifically the threat of more military activity between the U.S. and Iran, is one of the only remaining bullish factors supporting the…” said Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
