Oil futures ended higher on Thursday, with prices near-term oversold, following Wednesday’s multi percentage-point drop to multi-month lows…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
All of yesterday’s news flow was digested as bearish for oil as the threat of OPEC+ cuts were reduced, demand estimates in Europe were adjusted lower on poor data while ‘hot’ data in the U.S. added to already hawkish money flows that bolstered the dollar and further pressured oil, wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly lower as negative China/COVID headlines and lackluster economic data weighed on markets.
Chinese authorities put the city of Chengdu (population 17 million) in a COVID lockdown, reminding markets “Zero COVID” is still in effect.
Economically, global manufacturing PMIs were underwhelming as all major regions (EU, UK and China) posted numbers below 50 (signaling contraction).
Today focus will be on economic data and the most important number is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.2). Markets need to see an in-line reading, because if it’s a very strong number that will increase hawkish concerns about the Fed, and if it’s a very weak number (below 50) that will spike stagflation concerns. Outside of the PMI we also get Jobless Claims (E: 248K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 10.7%) and there’s also one Fed speaker, Bostic at 3:30 p.m. ET.
However, from a fundamental standpoint, any production cuts would be aimed at offsetting the return of Iranian barrels to the global market and not a material new bullish catalyst…said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are solidly higher following better-than-expected economic data and as markets continue to recoup Monday’s declines ahead of the Powell speech tomorrow.
Economic data was better than expected overnight as German GDP beat estimates (1.8% vs. (E) 1.4%) as did the IFO Business Expectations survey (80.3 vs. (E) 78.8).
On the Fed front, Bostic said the September rate hike was a 50/50 proposition between 50 bps or 75 bps, and that’s largely in line with market expectations.
Today’s focus will be on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 255k) and Revised Q2 GDP (E: -0.9%) and markets will want to see a continued slow rise in jobless claims and a stable GDP report (so not materially worse than expected).
Additionally, while the official Fed speaker calendar doesn’t have any events today, we should prepare for a deluge of Fed commentary via the financial media (CNBC, FT, WSJ, Marketwatch, etc.) as the Jackson Hole conference begins. Barring any major surprise commentary, though, markets should look past Fed speak today and focus on Powell’s speech tomorrow.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are flat and international markets were little changed overnight as currency and bond markets continued to stabilize with the focus remaining on the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium later in the week.
There were no notable economic reports overnight.
Today, no Fed officials are scheduled to speak leaving the focus on economic data early with Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.5%) and Pending Home Sales (E -2.5%) both due out early in the day.
Beyond those economic reports, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and if it is as soft as yesterday’s 2-Yr Note auction, that could result in rising yields which would in turn weigh on stocks ahead of Jackson Hole. However, barring any meaningful moves in the currency and bond markets today, it should be relatively quiet as traders begin to position into Powell’s speech on Friday morning.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are slightly higher on better-than-expected earnings, following an otherwise quiet night of news.
Cisco (CSCO) posted strong earnings and gave positive commentary on tech demand going forward.
Economically, EU HICP (their CPI) met expectations at 8.9% yoy and that reading means a 50 bps rate hike from the ECB is still likely in September.
Today’s focus will be on economic data, specifically the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (E: -5.0). If Philly Fed echoes the weak Empire Manufacturing reading and the price indices don’t decline, we’ll see stagflation concerns rise. Other reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 265K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.85M) but neither should move markets.
We also get two Fed speakers, George (1:20 p.m. ET) and Kashkari (1:45 p.m. ET), and the market will be looking for any insight on a 50 bps vs. 75 bps hike in September (markets are expecting 50 bps).
For oil’s drop, it’s mostly a demand story. If you see oil move into the high to mid 70s, people are going rethink the idea that these companies are cash flow-generating machines, Essaye said. Click here to read the full article.
Demand concerns are now the dominant influence on the global energy market and even though supply worries will persist with the Russia-Ukraine war, we will need to see evidence of demand stabilizing for the oil market to begin to find a near-term bottom,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote. Click here to read the full article.
Demand concerns are now the dominant influence on the global energy market and even though supply worries will persist with the Russia-Ukraine war, we will need to see evidence of demand stabilizing for the oil market to begin to find a near-term bottom,” wrote analysts at Sevens Report Research, in a note. Click here to read the full article.
