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Oil Supply Surplus Concerns Pull Prices Down Says Tyler Richey

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Concerns over a supply surplus help pull oil prices to their lowest in 3 weeks

A monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released Wednesday revealed a “fresh jolt of supporting evidence that the market is already in a physical surplus dynamic that is poised to worsen into 2026,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

That comes as “global production is trending higher while demand growth is flattening out,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on November 13th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Tyler Richey Quoted in Troymedia.com as Oil Oversupply Pressures Grow

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OPEC+ blinks as oil oversupply pressures grow

The World Bank Group forecasts that excess global oil supply could average four million bpd by 2026. That kind of surplus has consequences. U.S. benchmark West Texas oil prices “could fall as low as the mid-US$30s within a year if the sizable physical market surplus expected in 2026 becomes reality,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full article on Troymedia.com published on November 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: Oil Market Faces Record Surplus Despite U.S.-China Trade Truce

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Tyler Richey warns crude prices could fall to mid-$30s as 2026 supply glut looms.

An oil supply glut could sink prices to $35 a barrel next year. Why the U.S.-China trade truce won’t change that.

While President Trump’s trade truce with China offered a brief dose of optimism, Sevens Report Research warns it won’t offset an impending record oil surplus. Co-editor Tyler Richey told MarketWatch that the deal “does not change the current physical market math,” which still points to a 2026 supply glut averaging 4 million barrels per day, according to World Bank and IEA data. Richey cautioned that WTI crude could drop to the mid-$30s if forecasts hold, echoing the 2010s OPEC price war. Despite the tariff resolution, oil prices barely moved, as analysts see little change in supply-demand dynamics. Richey said only a major geopolitical shock or a global growth surge could shift the bearish outlook, noting fundamentals “remain tilted in favor of the oil bears.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on October 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Oil Prices Hover Near Key Support as Downside Bias Persists Says The Sevens Report

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye says WTI crude remains technically bearish, with $60–$61 marking a crucial line for oil bulls.

Oil: Ceasefire Deal Reinforces Bearish Technical Trend

Commodities have maintained a downside bias as easing Middle East tensions weigh on oil markets, according to Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report. He notes that WTI crude has been in a bearish trend since August 2024, with $60–$61 per barrel serving as a critical technical support zone. A decisive break below could spark a drop toward $57. Rising global supply from OPEC+ and near-record U.S. production, combined with softer demand expectations, keep risks tilted lower. Still, Essaye cautions that with sentiment crowded to the bearish side, oil remains vulnerable to a short-covering rally on any bullish surprises.

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on October 13th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: ‘Bearish Wheels in Motion’ for Oil as Supply Rises, Demand Wanes

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Tyler Richey says crude risks a deeper slide with $61.50 key support level

‘Bearish wheels are in motion’ for oil after a three-session climb

Crude oil is on track for its first loss in four sessions as supply builds and demand softens, according to Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“OPEC+ is re-engaging in a fight to reclaim market share from non-member producers, while demand faces pressure from rising stagflation risks,” Richey said. He noted the dynamic is “straight out of the economic 101 textbook” and has set the “bearish wheels in motion” for crude.

On the charts, $61.50 a barrel is the key near-term support for WTI. A break below that could accelerate losses toward the $57–$58 range, Richey warned. October WTI recently traded at $62.49, down 1.9% on Thursday.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on September 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview

Futures are modestly higher ahead of the jobs report and following solid tech earnings overnight.

Semiconductor company Broadcom (AVGO) beat estimates and offered bullish guidance and the stock is up 9% pre-market and that’s helping to lift futures.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders missed estimates, felling –2.9% vs. (E) 0.5%.

Focus today will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  E: 77K Job-Adds, 4.3% Unemployment Rate, 3.8% Wage Growth.  Any job adds number in the mid to low 100k range would be ideal for stocks as it would keep rate cut expectations high but also signal a stable labor market.  Conversely, if job adds drop close to zero (or even go negative even with revisions) it’ll increase concerns the labor market is cooling, boost slowdown fears and likely hit stocks.

 

What Happens If AI Loses Momentum?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Happens if AI Loses Momentum?
  • Oil Update and Weekly EIA Takeaways

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news and as CSCO earnings largely met expectations.

Economically, data was mixed in Europe as UK GDP (0.4% vs. (E) 0.2%) and Industrial Production (0.7% vs. (E) 0.5%) beat estimates while EU GDP met estimates (0.1%) but Industrial Production missed (badly) (-1.3% vs. (E) -0.5%).

Today focus will turn back to economic data and there are two notable reports today: Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y).  Of the two, PPI is more important and if it confirms the mostly tame CPI reading from Tuesday, it will further solidify rate cut expectations and support stocks.  There is also one Fed speaker today, Barkin (2:00 p.m. ET), and given recent conflicting commentary from voting members on the FOMC, the tone of each speaker will become more important.

Finally, mid-season earnings continue and some notable reports today include: JD ($0.44), AMAT ($2.34), NTES ($1.85), DE ($4.62), AAP ($0.59), NU ($0.13).

 

Fed Takeaways and Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets
  • FOMC Takeaways
  • Jobs Report Preview
  • Weekly EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Market Update

Futures are solidly higher as traders digest the largely benign July Fed decision amidst solid earnings and guidance from tech giants MSFT and META, which are trading higher by 8%+ and 12%+ in pre-market trade, respectively.

Today, focus will be on more key economic data early with Jobless Claims (E: 225K), and the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) being the key numbers to watch while the monthly Chicago PMI (E: 42.0) will also be released.

In the wake of the Fed decision yesterday, the Treasury’s 4-Week & 8-Week T-Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET today could shed some light on market expectations for Fed policy rates between now and the end of the third quarter (the more dovish, the better).

Finally, earnings season continues in full force with multiple major global corporations reporting Q2 results today including CVS ($1.47), ABBV ($2.89), MA ($4.05), AAPL ($1.42), AMZN ($1.33), MSTR ($-0.12), COIN ($1.18), KKR ($1.03), and SO ($0.93). Strong mega-cap tech earnings have become largely expected rather than appreciated by this market so any disappointment in corporate news could spark a wave of profit taking into the end of the month.

 

Sevens Report Co-Editor Says $750B EU Energy Deal Carries Financial Asterisk

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Tyler Richey, Co-Editor, Sevens Report Research Quoted by MarketWatch.

The Energy Report: They Said It Couldn’t Be Done

“If there are plans to more rapidly expand Europe’s nuclear power capacity by utilizing U.S.-based companies, and the power-plant construction, operation, long-term fuel fulfillment contracts, and future reactor services (some of which can be decades long) are all included in that $750 [billion] ‘headline number,’ then there could be a case made that the pulled-forward dollar amount of future operations could boost the value of the deal,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

However, that scenario would require some “financial engineering” to achieve the $750 billion, which would “leave the realistic dollar amount of the deal carrying an asterisk based on the three-year timeline mentioned,” Richey told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on July 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Co-Editor Questions Validity of $750B US-EU Energy Deal

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Tyler Richey says headline figure may rely on “financial engineering”

The E.U. to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy products. Why that’s ‘absurd.’

The European Union’s plan to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products raised eyebrows this week, with Sevens Report Research co-editor Tyler Richey calling the figure “absurd” without major assumptions baked in.

“If there are plans to more rapidly expand Europe’s nuclear power capacity by utilizing U.S.-based companies… then there could be a case made,” Richey told MarketWatch.

But that would require “financial engineering,” he added, and the three-year timeline would likely leave the real value of the deal carrying an asterisk.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.