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What Happens If AI Loses Momentum?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Happens if AI Loses Momentum?
  • Oil Update and Weekly EIA Takeaways

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news and as CSCO earnings largely met expectations.

Economically, data was mixed in Europe as UK GDP (0.4% vs. (E) 0.2%) and Industrial Production (0.7% vs. (E) 0.5%) beat estimates while EU GDP met estimates (0.1%) but Industrial Production missed (badly) (-1.3% vs. (E) -0.5%).

Today focus will turn back to economic data and there are two notable reports today: Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y).  Of the two, PPI is more important and if it confirms the mostly tame CPI reading from Tuesday, it will further solidify rate cut expectations and support stocks.  There is also one Fed speaker today, Barkin (2:00 p.m. ET), and given recent conflicting commentary from voting members on the FOMC, the tone of each speaker will become more important.

Finally, mid-season earnings continue and some notable reports today include: JD ($0.44), AMAT ($2.34), NTES ($1.85), DE ($4.62), AAP ($0.59), NU ($0.13).

 

Fed Takeaways and Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets
  • FOMC Takeaways
  • Jobs Report Preview
  • Weekly EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Market Update

Futures are solidly higher as traders digest the largely benign July Fed decision amidst solid earnings and guidance from tech giants MSFT and META, which are trading higher by 8%+ and 12%+ in pre-market trade, respectively.

Today, focus will be on more key economic data early with Jobless Claims (E: 225K), and the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) being the key numbers to watch while the monthly Chicago PMI (E: 42.0) will also be released.

In the wake of the Fed decision yesterday, the Treasury’s 4-Week & 8-Week T-Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET today could shed some light on market expectations for Fed policy rates between now and the end of the third quarter (the more dovish, the better).

Finally, earnings season continues in full force with multiple major global corporations reporting Q2 results today including CVS ($1.47), ABBV ($2.89), MA ($4.05), AAPL ($1.42), AMZN ($1.33), MSTR ($-0.12), COIN ($1.18), KKR ($1.03), and SO ($0.93). Strong mega-cap tech earnings have become largely expected rather than appreciated by this market so any disappointment in corporate news could spark a wave of profit taking into the end of the month.

 

Sevens Report Co-Editor Says $750B EU Energy Deal Carries Financial Asterisk

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Tyler Richey, Co-Editor, Sevens Report Research Quoted by MarketWatch.

The Energy Report: They Said It Couldn’t Be Done

“If there are plans to more rapidly expand Europe’s nuclear power capacity by utilizing U.S.-based companies, and the power-plant construction, operation, long-term fuel fulfillment contracts, and future reactor services (some of which can be decades long) are all included in that $750 [billion] ‘headline number,’ then there could be a case made that the pulled-forward dollar amount of future operations could boost the value of the deal,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

However, that scenario would require some “financial engineering” to achieve the $750 billion, which would “leave the realistic dollar amount of the deal carrying an asterisk based on the three-year timeline mentioned,” Richey told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on July 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Sevens Report Co-Editor Questions Validity of $750B US-EU Energy Deal

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Tyler Richey says headline figure may rely on “financial engineering”

The E.U. to buy $750 billion of U.S. energy products. Why that’s ‘absurd.’

The European Union’s plan to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products raised eyebrows this week, with Sevens Report Research co-editor Tyler Richey calling the figure “absurd” without major assumptions baked in.

“If there are plans to more rapidly expand Europe’s nuclear power capacity by utilizing U.S.-based companies… then there could be a case made,” Richey told MarketWatch.

But that would require “financial engineering,” he added, and the three-year timeline would likely leave the real value of the deal carrying an asterisk.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Earnings Drive S&P 500 Higher As Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

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Tom Essaye says unclear trade policy could block rate cuts and slow growth

S&P 500 at Record as Corporate Earnings Offset Tariff Jitters

RECORD HIGHS MET WITH POLICY RISKS AHEAD OF FED’S NEXT MOVE

The S&P 500 opened at record levels on Thursday, lifted by strong corporate earnings—but not all strategists are celebrating.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, warns that persistent tariff uncertainty could reduce the chances of a September rate cut and heighten the risk of a broader economic slowdown.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by Aug. 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

According to Essaye, the “consistently delayed” tariff timeline is already having a practical impact by extending the higher-for-longer rate environment.

“The practical impact… is to reduce the chances of a September rate cut.”

Without a clear trade policy resolution, investors may soon be forced to weigh strong earnings against an increasingly restrictive policy backdrop.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Two Ways Tariff Policy Could Hurt Stocks (Even If TACO is True)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Ways Tariff Policy Could Hurt Stocks (Even If TACO is True)

Futures are slightly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest the latest tariff threats.

Tariff threats from the administration have intensified over the week including the 50% tariff on copper imports and 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, but markets continue to largely ignore them and view it all as a negotiation.

Today focus will be on economic data, trade headlines and earnings.  Starting with the data, the key report today is Jobless Claims (E: 238K) and markets will want to see continued stability to further support last Friday’s good jobs number (and push back on any slowdown fears).  There are also three Fed speakers today, Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET), Waller (1:15 p.m. ET and Daly (2:30 p.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets.

On trade, markets are still waiting for updates on the EU and Taiwan.  A “deal” with the EU would further reduce trade anxiety while a letter would likely (slightly) escalate trade anxiety.

Finally, the Q2 earnings season starts (effectively) today and some reports we’re watching include:  DAL ($2.01), CAG ($0.59), LEVI ($0.14), PSMT ($1.16), WDFC ($1.43).

 

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Stocks Close Mixed as Tariff Worries Return, But Tom Essaye Says Markets Aren’t Buying It Yet

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Sevens Report sees complacency risk as indexes sit near all-time highs

S&P 500: Exploring best- and worst-case scenarios for H2 2025

U.S. stocks ended mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed the latest tariff uncertainty, but according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, the market’s muted reaction may be telling.

“If people believed it, we’d be down several percentage points… The fact that we’re not means nobody believes it.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye noted that sentiment, once extremely bearish in the spring, has since shifted—creating a more fragile market environment as stocks hover near all-time highs.

“The market has become vulnerable to negative surprises.”

That vulnerability could amplify any future macro shocks—especially if investor complacency builds while real risks remain unresolved.

Also, click here to view the full Xinhua article, published on July 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Wall Street Braces for Fallout But Markets May Already Be Looking Past It

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Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye on Why the U.S. Strike on Iran Might Not Be a New Market Negative

Wall Street Braces for Market Fallout After the U.S. Bombed Iran

Following news that the United States launched a targeted military strike on Iran, global markets reacted with caution. Investors immediately began pricing in higher oil prices, potential stock market volatility, and a stronger U.S. dollar.

Yet not all analysts see the event as a reason to panic.

In comments to Opening Bell Daily, Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye shared why this development may not derail markets—so long as the situation doesn’t escalate further.

“In some ways, this removes a potential unknown from the markets because it was unclear whether the U.S. would strike or not,”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye added that unless there’s retaliation or broader conflict, the market may now begin to stabilize. With the decision made and priced in, investor focus may shift back to fundamentals like earnings, Fed policy, and inflation.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Inc.com, published on June 23rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Did the S&P 500 Hit A New High? (And Is It Sustainable?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did the S&P 500 Hit A New High?  (And Is It Sustainable?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does the Big, Beautiful Bill Pass and Further Support Growth?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  The Big Three Reports This Week:  Jobs Report (Thurs), ISM Manufacturing & Services PMIs

Futures are modestly higher on further progress on passing the “Big, Beautiful Bill” (which would extend and increase ta cuts, further supporting economic growth).

The “Big Beautiful Bill” passed a key procedural vote over the weekend and passage out of the Senate is expected later today (and it could be law by the end of the week).

Economically, the June Chinese manufacturing and service PMIs were slightly better than expected.

Today there is one economic report (Chicago PMI (E: 42.7)) and two Fed speakers, Bostic (10:00 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.  Instead, focus will remain on Washington and if passage of the Big, Beautiful Bill becomes even more likely (meaning it passes the Senate and there’s no major pushback from House members) that should further add to the upward momentum in the market.

Investor Sentiment Update: Not As Bullish as You Might Think

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Investor Sentiment Update:  Not As Bullish as You Might Think

Futures are modestly higher thanks to a dovish WSJ article on the Fed overnight.

The WSJ reported President Trump will employ a “Shadow Fed” strategy and name Powell’s replacement in the coming months.  That replacement is expected to be more dovish than Powell and that’s weighing on the dollar and boosting futures.

Today focus will be on economic data and the key reports to watch include (in order of importance):  Jobless Claims (E: 245K), Durable Goods (E: 0.1%) and Final Q1 GDP (E: -0.2%).  Given this week’s slight dovish drift in the Fed, markets will want to see stable data further the idea of rate cuts in the next two to three months.

Speaking of the Fed, there are several speakers today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:00 a.m. ET) and Barr (1:15 p.m. ET).  Markets will be looking to see if any of them also float the idea of a July rate cut.  If so, it won’t make a July cut more likely, but it will further solidify expectations for a September cut (which will be a mild tailwind on stocks).