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Markets have held up well to a dramatic reduction in rate-cut estimates

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Markets have held up well to a dramatic reduction in rate-cut estimates: Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Editor, Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

This is the big question markets have for Fed’s Jerome Powell, BlackRock says

“Since the start of the year, markets have held up well to a dramatic reduction in rate-cut estimates,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note on Tuesday. “Remember, in January the market expected six rate cuts starting in March.”

Stocks and bonds haven’t been hit harder by the recent shift in those expectations because “the market still expects the next move from the Fed to be a cut,” Essaye said. A reiteration of that message by Powell on Wednesday could help stop the S&P 500’s recent slide, he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published by MSN on May 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Was the Fed Decision Positive? (No, Not Really)

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Was the Fed Decision Positive? (No, Not Really): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was the Fed Decision Positive? (No, Not Really)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are solidly higher following a mostly quiet night of news as markets further digested Fed Chair Powell pushing back on the idea of future rate hikes.

Economic data showed more buoyant inflation globally as Swiss CPI rose 1.4% vs. (E) 1.2% while the Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI met estimates.

Today the focus will remain on economic data as we get two notable economic reports, Jobless Claims (E: 211K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 3.3%). If both are “hot” (and especially if Unit Labor Costs are high) then expect higher yields and more pressure on stocks ahead of tomorrow’s Jobs Report.

Earnings season is winding down but there’s an important report via AAPL (E: $1.51) after the close, while I’ll also be watching SQ ($0.72), COIN (E: $1.20) and BKNG ($14.03) for any insight into the state of the U.S. consumer.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

There is certainly still a geopolitical fear bid in oil markets

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There is certainly still a geopolitical fear bid in oil markets: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices score weekly gain, breaking run of back-to-back weekly losses

“There is certainly still a geopolitical fear bid in oil markets here with [West Texas Intermediate crude] prices in the low $80s,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. “Geopolitical worries have eased from their most tense levels seen earlier in April as the escalation in the Middle East between Israel and Iran has receded back to a still unsettling, but notably more stable level.”

Without the simmering geopolitical worries, WTI would likely be in the low-to-mid $70-a-barrel range, “at best,” as consumer demand for gasoline has been sliding in recent weeks, while OPEC+ has made no changes to output policy in some time, he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on April 26th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Fundamental influences are “conflicted” right now

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Fundamental influences are “conflicted” right now: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Global oil prices fall for fourth straight session, with demand and Middle East risks in focus

Fundamental influences are “conflicted” right now, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

“Higher-for-longer central bank policy expectations, a strengthening dollar, and subsequent worries about the sustainability of economic growth in a high-rate/strong-dollar environment, are acting as headwinds on global oil prices,” he said, while “simmering geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran is simultaneously keeping a fear-bid in the market.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on April 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations

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Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil prices end mixed as traders weigh demand prospects, Middle East risks

“Higher-for-longer central-bank policy expectations, a strengthening dollar, and subsequent worries about the sustainability of economic growth in a high-rate/strong-dollar environment, are acting as headwinds on global oil prices,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. He added that the “simmering geopolitical situation between Israel and Iran is simultaneously keeping a fear-bid in the market.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

The surging Vix briefly pushed the value of front-month Vix futures contracts

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The surging Vix briefly pushed the value of front-month Vix futures contracts: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Iran-Israel fears sink stocks as traders rush to gold, Treasury bonds

The surging Vix briefly pushed the value of front-month Vix futures contracts expiring later this month above that of contracts expiring in May, causing the Vix futures curve to become inverted for the first time since February, according to Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research.

An inverted Vix futures curve is a sign that traders are bracing for stocks to continue sliding in the weeks ahead, Richey said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 12th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Geopolitical factors remain the primary influence on the oil market

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Geopolitical factors remain the primary influence on the oil market: Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Co-Editor, Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Oil prices fall, but settle above lows, as traders monitor Middle East risks

Geopolitical factors remain the “primary influence on the oil market,” and news that Israel was withdrawing some troops from parts of Gaza was seen as a step toward de-escalation in its military conflict with Hamas, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

Also, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly announced that a date has been set for an invasion of Rafah, which has been a “hotly contested issue in the ongoing talks between Israel and Hamas,” said Richey.

“The initial perception of improving geopolitical dynamics between Israel and Hamas initially weighed on oil prices [Monday], but renewed uncertainties about the potential for the military conflict to intensify” saw much of the early losses recovered before the close, Richey noted.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published by MSN on April 9th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The market has likely reached a “tipping point”

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The market has likely reached a “tipping point”: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in Morningstar

Stock-market rally has likely reached a ‘tipping point’ following spike in Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’

A rising Vix coupled with a pickup in demand for bearish put options are signs that the market has likely reached a “tipping point” and could continue to soften in the weeks ahead, according to Tyler Richey, co-editor of Sevens Report Research, in a report shared with MarketWatch on Monday.

Richey suggested a repeat of the selloff that sent the S&P 500 down 10% between late July and late October of last year appears to be the most likely scenario for markets.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on April 9th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Data from the EIA was largely bullish

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Data from the EIA was largely bullish: Sevens Report Co-Editor, Tyler Richey, Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil futures edge lower early Thursday

“Yesterday’s weekly inventory data from the EIA was largely bullish but the futures market had become overbought and there was a knee-jerk selloff in the immediate wake of the release as short-term traders booked profits on the latest breakout to new 2024 highs,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a note.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

How oil futures close out the week today will largely depend on how investors digest today’s jobs data

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Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch

Jobs report could decide how oil closes out the week

“How oil futures close out the week today will largely depend on how investors digest today’s jobs data. If it is more ‘market-friendly’ data that points to slowing inflation (specifically wages) and more loosening in the jobs market, oil is likely to rally past the $80/barrel mark,” analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a note.

“Conversely, a ‘hot’ report would likely send futures back towards support in the mid-$70s,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 8th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.