Posts

Earnings across the board were disappointing

/in , , /by

Earnings across the board were disappointing : Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

Major earnings week weighs on tech stocks

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said it wasn’t just Big Tech weighing on equities Thursday. Earnings across the board were disappointing (looking at you, Uber, Ebay and Intercontinental Exchange), plus economic data looks like we may see higher rates for a more sustained period of time.

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on November 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Barron’s Senior Managing Editor and Deputy Editor speak with Tom Essaye

/in , , /by

Semiconductor stocks have cycle-leading characteristics: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, interviewed on Barron’s Live

Talking Markets with Sevens’ Report Tom Essaye

Barron’s Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Deputy Editor Ben Levisohn speak with Tom Essaye, Founder and President of Sevens Report about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks.

Tom Essaye: Absolutely. So the number one message we’re trying to convey in the Sevens Report is for investors to really stay focused on economic growth. And the reason I say that is because if growth can’t hold up, then we have to talk about this rally potentially ending in a very uncomfortable way. And for those of us who have been in the markets for a long time, at least at the start of this century, we’ve seen that happen a few times and it’s very painful. And if you think about investing, those are really the types of markets we want to avoid. So with the Fed cutting rates, we now know that if growth rolls over, they will not be able to cut fast enough to prevent any sort of a slowdown. So to use the analogy, the die has been cast to a point. Now the Fed is cutting and we must see if growth holds up. Everything that’s going on around growth, so how many cuts are they going to have in 2024? What’s going to happen with the election? Is the Chinese stimulus going to be enough? All of those are ancillary issues, but the main issue is growth. Because if growth rolls over, now we have to talk about that being a rally-killing event and those are the big events we want everyone to be able to avoid.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s interview published on MarketWatch on October 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

 

Almost everything is favoring the bear case for oil right now

/in , , /by

Almost everything is favoring the bear case for oil right now: Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch

Oil futures finish higher, but analyst sees bearish trend for prices

Despite the Middle East developments, “almost everything is favoring the bear case for oil right now,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. “Uncertainties about global economic growth amid recently commenced central bank rate-cutting cycles, OPEC+ planning to raise production targets by year-end and evidence of fading consumer demand in the high-frequency inventory data all support the oil bears here,” he told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on October 26th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

October MMT Update: Positive News (But Priced In)

/in , , /by

How to Cut Through the Market Noise: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • October Market Multiple Table – Positive News But Priced In

U.S. futures are higher on dovish-leaning comments by the Fed’s Kugler overnight while global shares declined broadly in sympathy with a near-10% drop in Chinese shares after the latest government stimulus efforts disappointed.

Economically, German Industrial Production rose 2.9% vs. (E) 0.8% in August, helping easing EU growth worries while the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 91.5 but narrowly missed estimates of 91.7.

There are no notable economic reports today, however several Fed officials are scheduled to speak: Bostic (12:45 p.m. ET), Collins (4:00 p.m. ET), and Jefferson (7:30 p.m.). Based on the market’s positive reaction to Kugler’s comments in the pre-market, more dovish commentary has the potential to fuel a further relief rally today while a hawkish tone would likely weigh on stocks.

Finally, there is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and given the hawkish money flows in the wake of last week’s ISM data and September jobs report, weak demand at the auction could send yields to new highs and further pressure equity markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How to Cut Through the Market Noise

/in , , /by

How to Cut Through the Market Noise: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How to Cut Through the Market Noise
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Inflation and Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  CPI on Thursday is the Key Report

Futures are moderately lower following underwhelming economic data and as investors continue to wait for the Israeli response to Iran.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders and Euro Zone retail sales both missed estimates.

Geopolitically, investors are still awaiting the Israeli response strike to Iran and that lingering uncertainty is further boosting oil and weighing on futures.

Today the calendar is quiet as there is just one economic report, Consumer Credit (E: $13.5B) and two Fed speakers, Bowman (1:00 p.m. ET) and Kaskari (1:50 p.m. ET) but none of that should move markets.  Instead, focus will be on geo-politics as investors anxiously await the Israeli response strikes on Iran and whether they hit key infrastructure (nuclear sites, energy sites) or not will determine the impact on markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (Important for Fed Rate Cut Expectations)

/in , , /by

Jobs Report Preview: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Important for Fed Rate Cut Expectations)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower on continued elevated geo-political tensions and following mixed economic data.

Geopolitically, markets await the response from Israel to Tuesday’s attack and recent reports are stating it will be more aggressive than in April (increasing escalation risks).

Economically, EU and UK Service PMIs were mixed but both stayed above 50 (and economic positive).

Today focus will remain on economic data and the two key reports are Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 51.5).  If the reports are close to in-line with expectations, look for a bounce in stocks as that will imply a still solid economy (soft landing) with looming Fed rate cuts (50 bps between now and year-end).

Regarding geopolitics, Israel’s response attack could come at any minute and the key here is whether it’s an aggressive attack on key Iranian military or oil infrastructure, or not.  If so, that could lead to further escalation (negative for the market).  If not, we likely have a repeat of April (where the situation cools down).  Regardless, watch oil.  If it spikes numerous percent (say 3% or more) that will reflect real, elevated geo-political tensions.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered

Our Q3’24 Quarterly Letter was delivered to subscribers. We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis.

You can view our Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter here. To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email: info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Futures contracts tied to the index are telling a different story

/in , , /by

Futures contracts tied to the index are telling a different story: Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch

Why Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ could spike again around the election

But futures contracts tied to the index are telling a different story, and it’s one worth paying attention to, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

The October VIX contract is trading at a premium to the November contract, an unusual development known to futures traders as “backwardation.” Typically, the VIX futures curve exhibits a smooth upward slope. But for most of this year, there has been a kink along this part of the curve.

According to Essaye, the inversion is notable not so much for its degree — the October contract was just 0.3 points above its September sibling as of early Thursday — but for its staying power. This segment of the curve has been in backwardation since the October contract started trading in February.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on September 26th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tyler Richey of the Sevens Report highlights a market breadth concern

/in , , /by

Tyler Richey of the Sevens Report highlights a market breadth concern and is quoted in MarketWatch

A technical concern suggests upside momentum is fading

Tyler Richey of the Sevens Report highlights a market breadth concern: there are more stocks trading below their 200-day average than their 50-day average.

“In simple terms, a situation where there are more stocks below their 200-day MA than their 50-day is a bearish one as in a healthy market environment, there should consistently be more stocks above their 200-day MAs than 50-day MAs,” Richey says. Another concern is the NYSE advance-decline line declined last week even though the S&P 500 hit record highs.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on September 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

September Market Multiple Table Chart

/in , , /by

September Market Multiple Table Chart: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • September Market Multiple Table Chart

Futures are slightly higher despite more underwhelming tech company guidance.

Adobe (ADBE) posted solid results but disappointing guidance (like many tech firms recently) and the stock is down 8% pre-market, but that’s not impacting the broader averages like other recent disappointing tech guidance.

Economically, Euro Zone Industrial Production slightly missed estimates although that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will be on inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and expectations are:  1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 2.8%, 5-Yr. Inflation Expectations: 3.0%.  If we see better than expected numbers, that should further fuel the “dovish” rally that pushed stocks higher on Thursday.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and and minimum volatility funds

/in , , /by

 I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and and minimum volatility funds: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Halt Rebound as Oil Hits $80 on War Angst: Markets Wrap

Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report says he doesn’t think fundamentals have deteriorated enough to warrant de-risking and reducing equity or risk exposure — but he also wants to caution against dismissing the recent uptick in volatility.

“Much of what I read over the weekend characterized this recent volatility as just a typical pullback in an upward-trending market,” Essaye. “Because of that, I continue to advocate for defensive sector exposure and and minimum volatility funds.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on August 12th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Swissinfoch logo

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.