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Refined-products demand is beginning to slip

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Refined-products demand is beginning to slip: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch

Oil tallies back-to-back gains as Middle East flare-ups lift risk of supply disruption

In the U.S., analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a Thursday newsletter that the most attention-grabbing development in Wednesday’s EIA petroleum report was a “sharp and sudden” drop of 365,000 barrels per day in gasoline supplied, which is a proxy for consumer demand at the pump.

The decline “suggests the trend in refined-products demand is beginning to slip amid growing uncertainty about the economy in 2025,” the Sevens Report analysts said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bullish News for European Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish News for European Stocks
  • Why Did Stocks Drop?
  • Chart: Long-Term Bearish Reversal in Dow Theory

Futures are rebounding from yesterday’s ~1% pullback amid progress towards a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine, “cool” inflation data overseas, and trader positioning into the Fed decision this afternoon.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) fell from 2.5% Y/Y to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% in February, which is being well received by investors in pre-market trade as the Fed decision comes into focus.

There are no notable economic reports today although there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy rate expectations with the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference looming later this afternoon.

The FOMC meeting announcement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET shortly before Fed Chair Powell’s mid-afternoon press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will almost certainly be the “main event” of the trading session as investors look for clarity on monetary policy outlook given the recent escalation in trade war developments and the subsequent sense of market uncertainty that has come with it.

Finally, while earnings season is winding down, there are a few consumer-focused companies reporting quarterly results today: WSM ($2.91), GIS ($0.95), and FIVE ($3.38).

A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased

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A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased: Analysts at Sevens Report Research Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices resume slide, ending lower as tariff fears spark stock-market tumble

Meanwhile, the prospect of Trump administration efforts leading to a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has “greatly increased,” and should the war come to an end sooner than expected, it’s likely sanctions on Russia’s energy industry could be lifted, adding a sizeable amount of crude to the global market, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Monday note.

“Combining those influences, it is becoming increasingly likely that a physical markets surplus emerges in the months ahead, which could send WTI futures prices down towards $50/barrel later in 2025,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview: Clarity on the “Fed Put”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Meeting Preview – Clarity on the “Fed Put”
  • Retail Sales & Empire State Manufacturing Data Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as the bounce off of last week’s multi-month lows is being digested while trader-focus is turning to the March FOMC meeting which begins today.

Economically, the March German ZEW Survey saw its headline edge up from -88.5 to -87.6 while the Economic Sentiment component jumped from 26.0 to 51.6 vs. (E) 35. The data was well received and is amplifying already elevated optimism surrounding a looming German parliament vote on a massive spending package (focused on defense spending) that is expected to bolster economic growth.

In the U.S., there are several economic reports to watch today including: Housing Starts (1.383M), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.1% m/m, -0.2% m/m), and Industrial Production (E: 0.2%), however with the Fed decision looming tomorrow, none are expected to meaningfully move markets today.

The only other noteworthy, potential catalysts today are a pair of Treasury auctions, the first for 52-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and the second for 20-Yr Bonds at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong demand in the shorter durations bills would be seen as dovish and “market-friendly” while too strong of demand for 20-Yr Bonds could rekindle worries about the economy.

MMT Chart: S&P Targets Lowered Amid Ominous Technical Divergence

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • March MMT Chart Update: Fundamental Price Targets Lowered
  • An Increasingly Ominous Technical Divergence Has Emerged in the S&P 500

Futures are trading with tentative gains and bonds are little changed after another mostly quiet night of macroeconomic news as investors look ahead to today’s CPI report.

Economically, Japanese PPI fell from 4.2% to 4.0% y/y in February, slightly above the consensus estimate of 3.9% but the release did not meaningfully move markets ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report.

This morning, traders will be keenly focused on inflation data with CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) data due to be released ahead of the bell. A “cool” print is the best case scenario for stocks to mount a relief rally after recent losses.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and investors will be watching demand metrics to gauge bond traders reaction to the CPI data in afternoon trade (a healthy, but not too-strong auction outcome would be favorable for stocks).

Finally, earnings season continues with ADBE ($4.97) and AEO ($0.50) reporting after the close.

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye

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“Where’s the Trump Put?”: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Up in Late Hours on Hints of Tariff Relief: Markets Wrap

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on March 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Four Reasons Investors Are Worried About Washington

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Investors Worried About Washington? (Four Reasons)
  • Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Adds to Growth Fears

Futures are slightly lower as most global markets declined overnight, led by Asian tech stocks, after President Trump reiterated tariff plans for Canada and Mexico and revealed new plans limiting China’s semiconductor industry.

Today, there are two housing market reports to watch: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), before the more important economic release of the day, Consumer Confidence (E: 103.0) is due to be released shortly after the opening bell.

Following a string of weak economic reports in recent days, the market will be looking for some more upbeat and stable growth and consumer confidence figures today to help equities stabilize.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker in the early afternoon: Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to move bond yields and impact equity market trading.

Finally, earnings season continues with a few notable companies reporting today including: HD ($3.04), KDP ($0.57), AMC ($-0.16), AXON ($1.41), and INTU ($2.58).

Would be a substantial new negative for stocks.

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Lowering energy prices to combat sticky high inflation: Tom Essaye Quoted in Morningstar

Stagflation is the new threat to stock-market rally. What investors should know.

Meanwhile, Tom Essaye, president and founder of the Sevens Report, said his market-analysis firm will be closely looking for a rising risk of stagflation in coming weeks, which “would be a substantial new negative for stocks.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on February 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Lowering Energy Prices To “Combat Sticky High Inflation”

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Lowering energy prices to combat sticky high inflation: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices end lower as U.S. crude supplies climb for a third week in a row

A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, or end of the war, could be bearish for oil if Trump, who is adamant about lowering energy prices to “combat sticky high inflation” pushes for an immediate removal of all sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Also, geopolitical stability may “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.”

The market’s reaction to the CPI data underscored that “higher-for-longer Fed policy is becoming increasingly likely in 2025,” Richey said. “That ultimately raises the risk that restrictive rates choke off growth and tip the economy over a fragile edge into a recession, a historically demand-crippling phase of the economic cycle for oil and refined products.”

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on February 12th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Where Do We Stand With Tariffs?

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Where Do We Stand With Tariffs?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Tariff Threats Remain Centerstage
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Stagflation Risks Turn Investor Focus to Fed Meeting Minutes

Stock futures are higher despite a rise in global bond yields thanks to growing fiscal concerns in Europe and hawkish commentary from the Fed’s Waller over the long weekend.

Economically, U.K. jobs data from January was solid while the German ZEW Survey was better than expected which added upside pressure to global yields overnight.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch this morning: Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -0.5) and the Housing Market Index (E: 47.0) as well as two Fed speakers on the calendar Daly (10:20 a.m. ET) and Barr (1:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 52-Week Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact yields and move equity markets and earning season continues with a few noteworthy companies due to report quarterly results today including: BIDU ($1.78), MDT ($1.36), OXY ($0.67).

Bottom line, investors will want to see more “Goldilocks” data to contradict last week’s “whiff of stagflation,” and a less hawkish tone from Fed officials. Additionally, stabilizing yields and solid earnings would offer added tailwinds for equity markets at the start of the holiday-shortened trading week.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.