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“That leaves very little room for error” – Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

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High valuations raise the stakes for U.S. jobs data to come in just right, according to Sevens Report Research

Stocks face their first real test of 2026 with Friday’s pivotal jobs report and possible tariff ruling

On Friday, investors will receive the U.S. Labor Department’s first jobs report of 2026, which covers the month of December. There are potential risks for investors whether the data come in stronger or weaker than expected, said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

That leaves very little room for error, Essaye said. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the report to show 73,000 new jobs were created last month; that would be an improvement from just 64,000 in the initial reading for November. The unemployment rate also is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%.

“As was the case for the last two jobs reports, a ‘Goldilocks’ number that shows solidly positive jobs growth and stable unemployment is the best-case scenario for stocks, and the number that can keep this rally going,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 8th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Risks on Both Sides)

Futures are modestly lower on further digestion of the administration’s potential interference in industries.

The administrations’ proclamations on housing and defense company dividends/buybacks are weighing on markets as investors will only welcome so much government interference in business.

Economic data overnight was solid as German Manufacturers’ Orders and EU Unemployment both beat estimates.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and given labor market anxiety, the stronger the claims number, the better.  There are two other economic reports today, Q3 Productivity & Costs (E: 3.6%, 0.8%), Consumer Credit (E: $9.7B), but they are unlikely to move markets especially given tomorrow’s jobs report looms just over 24 hours away.

 

10-Year Treasury Yield Dips to 4.1% After ADP Miss

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Soft jobs data reignited slowdown concerns, keeping the 10-year yield locked in its 2025 trading range.

TNX: My Technical Take on 10-Year Treasury Yields

Treasury yields eased moderately following this week’s weaker-than-expected ADP jobs report. The 10-year Treasury Note yield (^TNX) slipped five basis points to 4.1% on Wednesday, extending its pattern of tight range trading that has persisted through most of 2025. Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report, noted that the 10-year yield remains technically neutral until a new extreme is reached. He added that the decline was driven more by growth and inflation expectations than Fed policy, as the benchmark yield tends to track economic momentum rather than short-term rate decisions. If the upcoming government jobs report echoes ADP’s weakness, Essaye cautioned that renewed slowdown fears could push investors back toward the safety of long-dated Treasuries—“just as they always do, despite fiscal concerns.”

Also, click here to view the full article on Moneyshow.com published on October 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Weak ADP Data Not a Red Flag Yet, Says Tom Essaye

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Essaye highlights resilience in labor market and favors natural resources ETF

Weak Jobs Numbers Won’t Derail a Hot Economy. 3 ETFs to Buy.

The latest ADP National Employment Report showed a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, but Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said the data shouldn’t alarm investors. He noted that Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures—typically more reliable—still indicate modest job growth.

“Unemployment remains low,” Essaye said, adding that it would take convincingly poor readings across multiple data sources to pose a serious threat to the economic outlook. “That’s not close to happening right now,” he emphasized.

Looking for opportunities in the current environment, Essaye recommended the FlexShares Global Upstream Natural Resources Index Fund (GUNR), citing its exposure to oil producers, chemical manufacturers, and basic materials companies. He said these firms could see rising profits as demand for commodities strengthens alongside steady consumer and business spending.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Barron’s published on October 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

When We’ll Know If the Labor Market Is a Problem

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • When We’ll Know If the Labor Market Is a Problem
  • What the Negative ADP Jobs Report Means for Markets

Futures are marginally higher following a mostly quiet night of news.

Politically, there are reports of back-channel negotiations occurring to end the government shutdown and a prolonged shutdown is not expected, although no resolution is imminent (and that’s still ok from a market standpoint).

Economically, Eurozone Unemployment slightly missed estimates (6.3% vs. (E) 6.2%).

Today there will be no jobless claims because of the shutdown so the key economic reports will be Challenger Job Cuts (E: 86k) and Factory Orders (E: 1.4%) while we also have one Fed speakers, Logan (10:30 a.m. ET).  Given yesterday’s negative ADP report, a spike in Challenger layoffs will create additional anxiety about the labor market (and possibly weigh on stocks more than ADP did initially on Wednesday).

 

What Does A Bad Labor Market Look Like and What Does It Mean for Markets?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does A Bad Labor Market Look Like and What Does It Mean for Markets?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do Stagflation Fears Rise Further?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: CPI on Wednesday the Key Report This Week

Futures are slightly higher as markets bounce from Friday’s post-jobs report declines, as investors look ahead to key inflation data this week.

Economically, data was mixed as Chinese and German exports (4.4% vs. (E) 5.5% and –0.6% vs. (E) 0.1% respectively) missed estimates, but German Industrial Production beat expectations (1.3% vs. (E ) 1.0%).

Geopolitically, Japanese stocks rallied hard (more than 1%) as PM Ishiba resigned (although it wasn’t a surprise).

This will be another important week because the PPI and CPI reports (Tuesday and Wednesday respectively) will either increase stagflation concerns (negative for stocks/bonds) or further pushback on them (positive for stocks and bonds). But, today should be mostly quiet as there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers.

Tom Essaye: Jobs Report Needs Stronger Beat to Derail Fed Rate-Cut Hopes

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Different payroll scenarios could spark sharp swings in stocks and yields

It will take a doozy of a jobs report to derail investor expectations for a September rate cut

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said it would take a much stronger payrolls beat to derail rate-cut expectations and pressure equities.

He outlined several scenarios:

  • Best case: Payrolls rise around 150,000 with steady unemployment and tame wage growth. This would ease growth worries while keeping a September cut in play.

  • Hot surprise: Payrolls of 250,000+ and unemployment at 4% or below could spark a 1%+ S&P 500 drop and a sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields.

  • Weak reading: Payrolls below 25,000 with unemployment at 4.4% could trigger a short-term rally on “bad-is-good” rate-cut optimism, but Essaye warned it would ultimately weigh on stocks as growth fears mount.

“A bounce in the S&P 500 initially shouldn’t be a total surprise, but beyond the short term this outcome would not be positive,” Essaye wrote.

Also, click here to view the full Market Watch article published in Morningstar on September 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets

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Sevens Report sees no recession yet, but warns of rising anxiety

What the bad jobs report means for markets

“The jobs report was a major disappointment, but job adds are still positive, so it’s not signaling any sort of recession or slowdown,” Sevens wrote Monday.

Sevens Report noted that the report is often the “most inaccurate” of economic data, prone to distortions and revisions—especially during the summer. Broader indicators like jobless claims and the JOLTS survey remain stable, offering a more balanced picture of the labor market.

Tariff announcements on Friday were also shrugged off. Sevens said the moves were “largely in line with expectations” and that the market reaction reflected sentiment rather than surprise. “The S&P 500 gave zero room for disappointment,” the firm noted.

Looking ahead, Tuesday’s ISM Services PMI could be critical. A drop below 50 may fuel recession fears and push stocks lower, while a stable reading above 50 would help settle nerves.

With defensive sectors outperforming late last week, Sevens advised staying balanced: “If you’re very light defensives, you may want to be ready to boost them if data is soft.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on August 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Stagflation Fears Keep Rising?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  ISM Services the Key Report This Week (Needs to Stay Above 50)

Futures are seeing a moderate bounce following Friday’s declines and after a mostly quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there was potentially positive news over the weekend as Swiss officials implied a trade deal with the U.S. was close, which would reduce tariffs.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will remain on trade, and any announcement of trade deals that reduce tariffs will be a mild tailwind on the markets.

Finally, earnings season has mostly wrapped up but there are some remaining notable companies reporting including: BRK.B ($5.24), W ($0.27), ON ($0.54), TSN ($0.72), PLTR ($0.08), MELI ($12.01), AXON ($0.08).

 

Fed Takeaways and Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets
  • FOMC Takeaways
  • Jobs Report Preview
  • Weekly EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Market Update

Futures are solidly higher as traders digest the largely benign July Fed decision amidst solid earnings and guidance from tech giants MSFT and META, which are trading higher by 8%+ and 12%+ in pre-market trade, respectively.

Today, focus will be on more key economic data early with Jobless Claims (E: 225K), and the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) being the key numbers to watch while the monthly Chicago PMI (E: 42.0) will also be released.

In the wake of the Fed decision yesterday, the Treasury’s 4-Week & 8-Week T-Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET today could shed some light on market expectations for Fed policy rates between now and the end of the third quarter (the more dovish, the better).

Finally, earnings season continues in full force with multiple major global corporations reporting Q2 results today including CVS ($1.47), ABBV ($2.89), MA ($4.05), AAPL ($1.42), AMZN ($1.33), MSTR ($-0.12), COIN ($1.18), KKR ($1.03), and SO ($0.93). Strong mega-cap tech earnings have become largely expected rather than appreciated by this market so any disappointment in corporate news could spark a wave of profit taking into the end of the month.