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A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased

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A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased: Analysts at Sevens Report Research Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices resume slide, ending lower as tariff fears spark stock-market tumble

Meanwhile, the prospect of Trump administration efforts leading to a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has “greatly increased,” and should the war come to an end sooner than expected, it’s likely sanctions on Russia’s energy industry could be lifted, adding a sizeable amount of crude to the global market, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Monday note.

“Combining those influences, it is becoming increasingly likely that a physical markets surplus emerges in the months ahead, which could send WTI futures prices down towards $50/barrel later in 2025,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil

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A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil: Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Co-Editor, Quoted in OilPrice.com

Trump Talks To End Ukraine War Involve Power Plants

A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil prices if Trump pushes for the removal of sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Geopolitical stability may also “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.” Sanctions by the Biden administration roughly tripled the number of directly sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers, enough to affect around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd)

Also, click here to view the full article published by OilPrice.com on March 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as investors look ahead to trade meetings and data.

Economically, the only notable report was Euro Zone Industrial Production and it slightly missed expectations (0.8% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Politically, focus will be on two events today, the USMCA renegotiation talks between U.S. and Canadian officials and progress on avoiding a government shutdown on Friday.

Outside of trade and politics, today there are two important economic reports:  Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y).  Because of rising stagflation worries, investors will want to see better than expected numbers from both reports, while a jump in jobless claims would increase growth concerns and hotter than expected PPI would raise fears tariffs are boosting inflation (tariff price pressures will show up in PPI before CPI).

We can hope for is a churn sideways

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We can hope for is a churn sideways: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Trump Wants an Economic ‘Detox.’ What It Means for Stocks.

According to Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye, “until there’s some movement towards stable policy, the best we can hope for is a churn sideways between around 5,700 and 6,000 in the S&P 500.” The index broke below 5650 in morning trading Monday.

Sevens Reports’ Essaye notes that concern about tariffs so far has been worse than their effects. While it makes sense to brace for volatility, “that negative scenario is not a foregone conclusion and actual facts on the economy and earnings [are] hanging on.” he says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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The spike in uncertainty and fear that uncertainty will lead to a whole host of negatives

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The spike in uncertainty and fear: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Trump tariffs denting U.S. economy not a “foregone conclusion” – Sevens Report

Fears that uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could lead to a series of negative consequences for the broader economy are worth considering but not a “foregone conclusion,” according to analysts at Sevens Report.

“The reason stocks are dropping is the spike in uncertainty and fear that uncertainty will lead to a whole host of negatives,” the Sevens Report analysts wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

The near-constant stream of “scary” trade-related headlines has also fueled “louder and more frequent” predictions for “continued declines in stocks,” the analysts added.

However, “it’s fear driving this market,” not actual bad economic data or dire company results, they said.

“It’s right to be more cautious on this market and brace for continued volatility,” they added. “But that negative scenario is not a forgone conclusion …”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Is Europe Finally Ready to Grow?
  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)

Futures are modestly higher following Thursday’s declines on solid tech earnings and as markets look ahead to today’s jobs report.

Broadcom (AVGO) earnings beat estimates and the stock is up 11% pre-market and that’s helping tech bounce.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders badly missed expectations, falling –7.0% vs. (E) -0.9%.

Today the two big scheduled events are the jobs report and Powell’s speech.  For the jobs report expectations are 160K Job-Adds, 4.0% UE Rate, 4.1% Wages y/y.  In-line data will push back hard on stagflation fears and likely fuel a bounce in stocks (as long as there are no negative tariff headlines).

For the Fed, Powell (12:30 p.m. ET) is the most important speaker but we also hear from Williams & Bowman (10:15 a.m. ET) and Kugler (1:00 p.m. ET).  As long as those officials (especially Powell) reinforce that they expect rate cuts, it should help support markets.

Jobs Report Preview (Does the Growth Scare Get Worse?)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Does the Growth Scare Get Worse?)

Futures are sharply lower on a combination of ongoing trade anxiety and disappointing earnings.

On tariffs, there was no news overnight but despite the one-month exemption of autos, trade uncertainty and volatility remains a major headwind on stocks.

On earnings, MRVL results underwhelmed and tech is getting hit as a result (MRVL is down –15% pre-market).

Focus today will, of course, stay on tariffs and trade and there are some reports suggesting agricultural products could also be exempted from tariffs (if so, that’d be another incremental positive but it won’t cure the policy/trade chaos currently impacting markets).

Economically, there are two notable reports today:  Jobless Claims (E: 244K) and Unit Labor Costs (E: 3.0%) and better than expected numbers in both will help to support stocks.  Finally, there are several Fed speakers today but with so much policy volatility, Fed speak has been rendered relatively unimportant for the time being (the Fed can’t do anything about tariffs).  Speakers today include: Harker (8:45 a.m. ET), Waller (3:30 p.m. ET) and Bostic (7:00 p.m. ET).

 

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Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as investors digest fresh tariff threats from President Trump and more “hot” inflation data out of Europe, both of which are driving global bond yields higher.

Economically, China’s House Price Index fell -5.0% in January rekindling concerns about the nation’s housing sector while UK CPI was 3.0% vs. (E) 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December, stoking inflation fears and adding upward pressure to bond yields.

Today, there is one economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.397M) before the January FOMC Meeting Minutes will come into focus in the afternoon (2:00 p.m. ET).

There is also one Fed speaker but not until after the close: Jefferson (5:00 p.m. ET) while we will get a few noteworthy (but not likely market-moving) earnings releases from ETSY ($0.95), CVNA ($0.32), and TOST ($0.06).

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Where Do We Stand With Tariffs?

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Where Do We Stand With Tariffs?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Tariff Threats Remain Centerstage
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Stagflation Risks Turn Investor Focus to Fed Meeting Minutes

Stock futures are higher despite a rise in global bond yields thanks to growing fiscal concerns in Europe and hawkish commentary from the Fed’s Waller over the long weekend.

Economically, U.K. jobs data from January was solid while the German ZEW Survey was better than expected which added upside pressure to global yields overnight.

Looking into today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch this morning: Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: -0.5) and the Housing Market Index (E: 47.0) as well as two Fed speakers on the calendar Daly (10:20 a.m. ET) and Barr (1:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 52-Week Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could impact yields and move equity markets and earning season continues with a few noteworthy companies due to report quarterly results today including: BIDU ($1.78), MDT ($1.36), OXY ($0.67).

Bottom line, investors will want to see more “Goldilocks” data to contradict last week’s “whiff of stagflation,” and a less hawkish tone from Fed officials. Additionally, stabilizing yields and solid earnings would offer added tailwinds for equity markets at the start of the holiday-shortened trading week.

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What Yesterday’s Hot CPI Means for Markets

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What Yesterday’s Hot CPI Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Yesterday’s Hot CPI Means for Markets

Futures are little changed following a night of mixed economic data and as markets await more details on reciprocal tariffs.

Investors are waiting to learn which countries and what products will be subject to reciprocal tariffs and until that happens (maybe today or Thursday) that uncertainty will be a market headwind.

Economically, UK and EU data was slightly better than expected (UK GDP and Euro Zone IP both beat estimates).

Obviously tariff news could be market moving if we get any specifics on reciprocal tariffs but beyond that, focus will remain on economic data and due to yesterday’s hot CPI, PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.2% y/y) will be the most important report today.  PPI is viewed as a loose leading indicator for CPI, so if PPI runs “hot” look for another rise in Treasury yields and a headwind on stocks.  The other notable economic report today is Jobless Claims (E: 217K) and markets will want to see more Goldilocks readings (so slightly above expectations).

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