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Essaye says 2025 is likely to be more volatile

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AEssaye says 2025 is likely to be more volatile: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Yahoo Finance

Which Trump policies actually matter to the market?

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye joins Josh Lipton on Asking for a Trend to discuss what investors can expect from the market under Trump 2.0 and which headlines matter to investors.

Essaye says 2025 is likely to be more volatile. “The important thing for everybody watching at home to remember is that volatility doesn’t mean that the stock market goes down a lot either. So we can have a volatile market that still produces a decent return,” he explains. “It’s just going to require us to pay a lot more attention, frankly, and to just kind of cut through the noise and see what’s really mattering to this market.”

“You’ve got to really stay focused on what’s driving this market,” Essaye says, highlighting economic growth, the Federal Reserve, and Trump’s administration as the most important factors for the market. He does not believe that tariffs will “derail the market or economy.”

Also, click here to view the full interview with Yahoo Finance published on January 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Investors will want to see a return to Goldilocks data

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Investors will want to see a return to Goldilocks data: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Wall Street Braces for Jobs Jolt as Stocks Churn: Markets Wrap

“Investors will want to see a return to Goldilocks data, consistent with a cooling labor market to help temper the recent spike in yields and help stocks stabilize,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article published on January 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

To Pause or Not to Pause? That Is the Fed Question

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To Pause or Not to Pause? That Is the Fed Question: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • To Pause or Not to Pause? That is the Fed Question
  • Weekly Market Preview – Could Inflation Data Reintroduce Rate Hike Possibilities?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – Wednesday’s CPI Report in Focus

Futures are tracking global equity markets lower this morning with rate-sensitive small caps and tech shares leading declines as bond yields continue higher on the back of Friday’s “hot” jobs report and new highs in the price of oil.

There were no economic reports overnight, however, the U.S. announced new curbs on AI-chip exports (specifically NVDA chips) which is pressuring mega-cap tech stocks in pre-market trade.

Today, there are a limited number of market catalysts as there are no noteworthy U.S. economic reports on the calendar and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

There are two Treasury auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET today (for 3-Month and 6-Month Bills) and given the hawkish reaction to Friday’s jobs data, their outcomes could impact stocks. Bottom line, if Treasury yields hold pre-market levels with the 10-Yr and 30-Yr both approaching 5%, stocks will have a very difficult time stabilizing today.

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Jobs Day (Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview)

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Jobs Day (Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day (Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview)
  • Are the Global Bond Markets Punishing the UK?

Futures are little changed as none of the economic data or central bank speak of the past 48 hours was impactful, so investors are focused on today’s jobs report it’s potential to move markets, especially if it’s “Too Hot.”

Economically, Euro Zone retail sales missed expectations, adding another lack luster data point to the growing list.

Today the major event is the jobs report and stakes for stocks are clear:  If this report is “Too Hot” and boosts fears the Fed has paused rate cuts, it’ll cause yields to rise and hit stocks, potentially hard.

Expectations for the report are as follows: 164K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 4.0% y/y Wage Growth.   An in-line to slightly weak number vs. expectations is the best-case scenario for markets this morning:

In addition to the jobs report we also get Consumer Sentiment (E: 74.5) and some notable earnings from DAL ($1.76), WBA ($0.37) and STZ ($3.34), but today is really all about the jobs report.

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Tom Essaye set expectations for holiday travel.

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Tom Essaye set expectations for holiday travel: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

360 Round: Holiday Travel

Robby Silk and Tom Essaye set expectations for holiday travel. They both expect record air travel, with Airlines for America forecasting 54M flyers between Dec. 19-Jan. 6. Tom says it’s “not surprising” that travel remains strong, but notes that the industry has shrunk substantially over the last 20 years with mergers and bankruptcies.

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on December 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Fed Provided A Legitimate Surprise

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The Fed Provided A Legitimate Surprise: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Stock Market Needed a Washout. What Sentiment Says About What Comes Next.

The Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye notes that two things in particular caught investors offside. First, the shift to fewer rate cuts in 2025 means that the Fed will be less of a force for good in the market than it was heading into the meeting. The language of the statement also changed in a way that suggested rate cuts could be off the table completely next year. “Bottom line, the Fed provided a legitimate surprise,” he writes.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on December 20th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Report Preview (Markets Closed Tomorrow)

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Jobs Report Preview (Markets Closed Tomorrow): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview
  • ISM Services PMI Takeaways – Strong Data Supports Hawkish Fed Stance
  • Chart – JOLTS Jump to Multi-Month High But Still Trending Lower

Futures were slightly higher earlier this morning as traders digested disappointing data out of Europe but volatility has picked up since CNN reported that Trump is weighing emergency measures to implement new tariffs programs.

Economically, German Manufacturing Orders plunged -5.4% vs. (E) 0.0% while EU Economic Sentiment fell 93.7 vs. (E) 95.7 and Eurozone PPI declined just -1.2% vs. (E) -2.5%.

Today, traders are likely to remain keenly focused on the early tariff headlines that have roiled futures in the pre-market. Any commentary from Trump that tamps down concerns about aggressive tariffs and the threat of global trade wars will help settle markets over the course of the day.

Additionally, there are two key labor market reports to watch today, the ADP Employment Report (E: 134K), and Jobless Claims (E: 216K). After yesterday’s “hot” ISM and JOLTS data, investors will want to see a return to “Goldilocks” data consistent with a cooling labor market to help temper the recent spike in yields and help stocks stabilize.

Finally, there is one Fed speaker early in the day: Waller (8:30 a.m. ET) and a 30-Yr Treasury Bond auction in the early afternoon (1:00 p.m. ET) that cold move yields, and in turn, impact equity markets (strong demand for the long bonds is the best outcome for stocks).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts)

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What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Does Wall Street Expect for 2025? (SPX Forecasts)
  • S&P Services PMI Takeaways – Slightly Hawkish

Futures are little changed this morning as global investors digest the solid rebound in stocks over the last two sessions amid largely as-expected economic data overnight.

Economically, Eurozone CPI met estimates with a 0.2% rise to 2.4% Y/Y in December while the EU Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.3%, also inline with expectations.

Today, market focus will be on economic data early with International Trade in Goods (E: $-77.6B), ISM Services PMI (E: 53.2), and JOLTS (E: 7.65 million) all due to be released this morning. The ISM report will be critical as a “hot” print is a risk to the early 2025 rally as it will support the case for a Fed “pause” in their rate cutting cycle and put upward pressure on yields.

There is also one Fed speaker who could shed light on FOMC policy plans (although that is not very likely): Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).

Finally, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and the results will be important to watch as yesterday’s weak 3-Yr Note auction contributed to the afternoon rise in yields that weighed on stocks. So, the best-case scenario outcome for stocks is a solid auction that turns yields lower, ideally with the 10-Yr yield falling back below 4.60%.

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Are H-1B Visas the Reason for this Pullback?

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Are H-1B Visas the Reason for this Pullback?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are H-1B Visas the Reason for this Pullback?

U.S. equity futures are bouncing back from yesterday’s losses in light holiday trading as investors square books into year-end and digest mixed Chinese economic data.

China’s Composite PMI rose 1.4 points to 52.2 in December thanks to the Services PMI rising to 52.2 vs. (E) 50.2 but the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.1 vs. (E) 50.3.

There are two housing market reports today: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.3%) and FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.5%) but neither release should materially move markets and there are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today.

The limited list of catalysts should make for a quiet session to end what has been a strong year of gains in the stock market as portfolio rebalancing and year-end book-squaring are likely to be the primary drivers of money flows today.

As a reminder, stocks will trade for a full, normal session through 4:00 p.m. ET but the bond market closes early today (2:00 p.m. ET).

 

Last Day to Use Your 2024 Research Budget to Extend Subscriptions or Save Money on an Annual Subscription or Bundle!

Throughout December, we’ve been contacted by advisor subscribers who wanted to use the remainder of their 2024 pre-tax research budgets to extend their current subscriptions, upgrade to an annual (and get a month free) or add a new product (Alpha, Quarterly Letter, Technicals).

If you have unused pre-tax research dollars, we offer month-free discounts on all our products.

If you want to extend current subscriptions or save money by upgrading to an annual subscription (across any Sevens Report product), please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Higher Bar for the Bulls in 2025

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A Higher Bar for the Bulls in 2025: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Higher Bar for the Bulls in 2025
  • Weekly Market Preview: Focus on Politics (Does Johnson Get Re-elected as Speaker?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Another Slow Week But Important Reports Thursday and Friday

Futures are slightly weaker following a mostly quiet weekend of news and ahead of another holiday shortened trading week.

Economically, the only notable report was Spanish CPI, which came in hotter than expected at 2.8% y/y vs. (E) 2.6% y/y, reinforcing some fears of sticky inflation.

Politically, the first major event for the new U.S. Congress comes this Friday via the Speaker of the House election (markets will want to see current Speaker Johson re-elected).

Given the mid-week holiday this week is another relatively quiet one on the data front but there are some notable reports to watch today including Chicago PMI (E: 42.7), Pending Home Sales (E: 0.7%).  As is the case for the foreseeable future, anything Goldilocks (so in-line to slightly softer) is the preferred outcome for markets.

 

Sevens Report Q4 ’24 Quarterly Letter Coming Thursday. 

We can help you improve your client communication with little-to-no effort from you!

I am currently finishing the Q4 2024 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter and it will be delivered Thursday, January 2nd.

2024 was a great year, but there is a lot of uncertainty looming for markets in 2025, from politics, the Fed, economic growth and earnings.

Don’t let your clients get blindsided by negative events!

You can view our Q3 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.