10-Year Treasury Yield Dips to 4.1% After ADP Miss
Soft jobs data reignited slowdown concerns, keeping the 10-year yield locked in its 2025 trading range.
TNX: My Technical Take on 10-Year Treasury Yields
Treasury yields eased moderately following this week’s weaker-than-expected ADP jobs report. The 10-year Treasury Note yield (^TNX) slipped five basis points to 4.1% on Wednesday, extending its pattern of tight range trading that has persisted through most of 2025. Tom Essaye, president of Sevens Report, noted that the 10-year yield remains technically neutral until a new extreme is reached. He added that the decline was driven more by growth and inflation expectations than Fed policy, as the benchmark yield tends to track economic momentum rather than short-term rate decisions. If the upcoming government jobs report echoes ADP’s weakness, Essaye cautioned that renewed slowdown fears could push investors back toward the safety of long-dated Treasuries—“just as they always do, despite fiscal concerns.”
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