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Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump

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Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Impact of the Assassination Attempt on Former President Trump
  • Acknowledging There’s a Downside to Current Market Events, Too
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Growth and Earnings Hold Up?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  An Important Check on the Consumer This Week

Futures are moderately higher as markets further price in an expected Trump win and Republican sweep following the assignation attempt on the former President.

Former President Trump survived an assignation attempt over the weekend and while expectations of a Trump win in November are boosting futures this morning, the event is unlikely to sustainably impact markets.

Today focus will be on economic data and Fed speak as Powell speaks at noon while we also get the first look at July economic data via the Empire Manufacturing PMI (-5.50).  If Powell is dovish and the data is solid, expect this early rally to continue.

Turning to earnings, this will be a busy week of results but it starts relatively slowly and the only two notable reports today are GS ($8.52) and BLK ($9.96).

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Consumer demand remains rather strong

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Consumer demand remains rather strong: Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Co-Editor, Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

Oil prices log first gain in 4 sessions with crude supply down a second straight week

Consumer demand remains rather strong “despite higher prices at the pump this year and simmering concerns about the health of the economy,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch.

‘An added tailwind for oil is the largely dovish tone from [Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome] Powell this week helping to shore up expectations of a soft economic landing and fading concerns about a demand-crippling hard landing in 2024.’ — Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Research

“An added tailwind for oil is the largely dovish tone from [Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome] Powell this week helping to shore up expectations of a soft economic landing and fading concerns about a demand-crippling hard landing in 2024,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published by MSN on July 10th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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CPI Preview (Good, Bad & Ugly)

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CPI Preview (Good, Bad & Ugly): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • CPI Preview (Good, Bad & Ugly)
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly lower as investors digest Wednesday’s new highs while earnings this morning underwhelmed.

PEP and DAL both posted disappointing guidance and the stocks are down pre-market, weighing on futures.

Economically, data was good overnight as German CPI was in-line while UK GDP was better than expected.

The most important report of the week comes this morning via the CPI report and expectations are as follows:  CPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 3.1% y/y), Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.4% y/y).  To keep things simple, if CPI shows a continued decline in inflation, that will make a September rate cut even more likely and help support stocks.  If inflation bounces back, that’s a real surprise negative and don’t be shocked if the S&P 500 falls 1% or more.

Other notable events today include Jobless Claims (E: 239K) and one Fed speaker, Bostic (11:30 a.m. ET), along with the start of earnings season (notable reports today include PEP ($2.15), DAL ($2.37) and CAG ($0.56)).  Each of these events are important in their own right but the morning will be dominated by CPI and as that goes, so likely goes the market today.

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Market Multiple Table: An Important Change

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Market Multiple Table: An Important Change: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table: An Important Change

Stock futures are trading higher this morning with tech stocks continuing to outperform as traders look ahead to Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony today.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1 point to 91.5 vs. (E) 90.3 in June.

There are no additional economic reports today which will leave trader focus on Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony before Congress beginning at 10:00 a.m. ET. There are two additional Fed speakers as well today: Barr (9:15 a.m. ET) and Bowman (1:30 p.m. ET).

The only other potential catalyst on the calendar is a 3-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Weak demand and subsequently rising yields after the auction could weigh on stocks as money flows have been very dovish in recent weeks.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

Our Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter was delivered to subscribers last Monday, complete with compliance backup and citations. We’re already receiving feedback about how it is saving advisors time and helping them communicate with their clients in this volatile environment!

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A lack of market breadth won’t lead to markets reversing

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Lack of market breadth won’t lead to markets reversing: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Stock Market’s Breadth Is Improving. Why It Matters.

Though a lack of market breadth won’t lead to markets reversing, Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s, it is worth watching.

“The lack of breadth tells you something about the underlying business fundamentals in the economy,” Essaye says. “If everything were as healthy as the S&P 500 would have you believe, breadth would be better.”

He says the index’s performance may be overstating how well things are going for U.S. firms.

“It doesn’t mean the reality is bad—it’s just not as good as that single index is making you think it is,” Essaye says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on July 3rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Economy: Landing or Crashing?

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The Economy: Landing or Crashing? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Economy:  Landing or Crashing?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will A September Rate Cut Become a Guarantee This Week?
  • Weekly Economic Data:  Inflation Back in Focus (CPI This Week)

Futures are little changed despite positive geo-political news over the weekend.

In France, the “far-right” National Rally party underperformed expectations and will not be the majority party, reducing the chances of radical French policy changes.

In the Middle East, chatter surrounding a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas continues to get louder and a deal could be announced soon.  That news is weighing on oil this morning.

This week will be an important one with two days of Powell testimony, the CPI report and the start of the Q2 earnings season, but today will be relatively quiet as there are no economic reports today and no Fed speakers.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter

Our Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter was delivered to subscribers last Monday, complete with compliance backup and citations. We’re already receiving feedback about how it is saving advisors time and helping them communicate with their clients in this volatile environment!

You can view our Q1 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link.

If you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

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Jobs Day

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Jobs Day: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Why Wednesday’s Weak Economic Data Is Increasing Growth Concerns

Futures are little changed following the U.S. holiday as the last 24 didn’t provide any substantial market surprises while focus turns towards today’s jobs report.

The Labour Party won a landslide election victory in the UK, as expected, but that victory isn’t altering the outlook for growth or inflation (so it’s not impacting markets).

U.S. growth worries are creeping slightly higher following Wednesday’s surprisingly soft economic data.

Today focus will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows: 189K Job-Adds, 4.0% Unemployment Rate, 0.3% m/m & 3.9% y/y Wage Growth.  Markets are still in a “bad is good” mode for data so the biggest risk to markets today is for a “Too Hot” number.  But, that said, Wednesday’s economic data was outright bad and for those paying attention, there are now a lot of signs that the U.S. economy may be losing more momentum than expected.  So, if there is a surprisingly weak jobs report (possible but unlikely) it will increase growth concerns and that’s a future risk to this rally.

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French Election Takeaways

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French Election Takeaways: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • French Election Takeaways
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI – The Latest Goldilocks Report
  • Chart: S&P 500 Adjusted for Inflation

U.S. equity futures are tracking European markets lower this morning as ECB President Lagarde pushed back on the idea of another summer rate cut amid resilient labor market data and another stubbornly high inflation reading.

Economically, Eurozone Unemployment held steady at 6.4% vs. (E) 6.5% while the June Core HICP Flash (CPI equivalent) was also unchanged at 2.9% vs. (E) 2.8%.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are two economic reports to watch: JOLTS (E: 7.9 million) and Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.9 million). Investors will be looking for a “cool” but not too-soft JOLTS headline to help reinforce expectations for a September Fed rate cut.

Beyond the economic data, market focus will be on Fed speak this morning as Powell is scheduled to speak at 9:30 a.m. ET. A dovish tone from the Fed chair would be well received and likely influence risk-on money flows while any hawkish surprises have the potential to spark volatility and profit taking in equities.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Yesterday!

Our Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter was released yesterday.

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis.

You can view our Q1 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

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Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate

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Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Examining the Market Impacts of Thursday’s Debate (What Happens If Biden’s Replaced?)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Economic Data Keep Growth Concerns At Bay?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday, ISM PMIs Today and Wednesday.

Futures are slightly higher ahead of a busy and holiday-shortened week of data, as French election results weren’t as bad as feared while global economic data was mixed.

National Rally slightly underperformed in the first round of voting in the French election and the other major parties have agreed to form a coalition to prevent it from becoming an outright majority, reducing French political risks.

Economically, EU and UK May Manufacturing PMIs were mixed but importantly didn’t raise any growth concerns.

This is a busy and important week for economic data as the reports will either increase growth concerns or push back on them.  Today the key report is the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.1) and the stronger this number, the better for markets.

Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Delivered Today!

Our Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter will be released today.

We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis.

You can view our Q1 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

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How and Why The French Election Could Impact Markets

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How and Why The French Election Could Impact Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How and Why The French Election Could Impact Markets

Futures are modestly higher despite more weak earnings (NKE), as last night’s debate is seen as boosting Trump’s chances to win the election.

President Biden’s performance at last night’s debate raised further concerns about his mental and physical stamina and hurt his re-election chances.  The net result is markets are rallying on Trump’s improved chances to win, as markets generally prefer Republican candidates due to pro-business policies (although actual results are mixed).

Today focus shifts back to data and the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y).   Markets will want to see it confirm the good CPI numbers from earlier in the month (meaning at or below estimates) and if that occurs, it should extend this early rally.

There are also two Fed speakers today, Bowman (12:00 p.m. ET) and Daly (12:40 p.m. ET), but neither should move markets.

Sevens Report Q2 ’24 Quarterly Letter Coming July 1st. 

The Q2 2024 Quarterly Letter will be delivered to advisor subscribers on Monday, July 1st.

We will deliver the letter on the 1st business day of the new quarter because we want you to be able to send your quarterly letter before your competition (and with little to no work from you).

You can view our Q1 ’24 Quarterly Letter here.

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