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What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Bad Jobs Report Means for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Do Stagflation Fears Keep Rising?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  ISM Services the Key Report This Week (Needs to Stay Above 50)

Futures are seeing a moderate bounce following Friday’s declines and after a mostly quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there was potentially positive news over the weekend as Swiss officials implied a trade deal with the U.S. was close, which would reduce tariffs.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will remain on trade, and any announcement of trade deals that reduce tariffs will be a mild tailwind on the markets.

Finally, earnings season has mostly wrapped up but there are some remaining notable companies reporting including: BRK.B ($5.24), W ($0.27), ON ($0.54), TSN ($0.72), PLTR ($0.08), MELI ($12.01), AXON ($0.08).

 

FOMC Preview: Wildcard to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview: What’s Expected, Hawkish Scenario, Dovish Scenario
  • Fed Meeting Wildcard to Watch: Dovish Dissents

U.S. equity futures are tracking European shares higher this morning amid continued optimism surrounding the U.S.-EU trade deal and resilient earnings ahead of the Fed decision.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight which will leave focus on earnings and U.S. economic data today as the July Fed meeting gets underway in Washington.

Today’s economic calendar is a fairly busy one with several potential market-moving reports due to be released including: Consumer Confidence (E: 95.8), JOLTS (E: 7.4 million), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 2.9%), and International Trade in Goods (E: $-99.0B).

Looking at earnings, the Q2 reporting season continues with notable companies releasing results today including: UNH ($4.84), SOFI ($0.06), BA ($-1.54), PG ($1.43), V ($2.86), MRK ($2.01), SBUX ($0.64).

Bottom line, investors will continue to look for resilient, yet not “too hot” economic data trends and upbeat earnings and guidance in order for stocks to hold yesterday’s record highs, however a familiar sense of “Fed Paralysis” is likely to grip markets ahead of tomorrow’s critical Fed decision.

 

June CPI Shows Early Tariff-Driven Inflation Signs

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Sevens Report says tariff pressures may be emerging in inflation data

Tariff Impact Starts to Show in June CPI Report

TARIFFS START TO BITE?

June’s CPI data came in mostly as expected — but Sevens Report flagged one critical detail: tariff price pressures may already be appearing.

  • Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY (vs. 2.6% est.)
    Driven by higher energy costs from Middle East tensions.

  • Core CPI: +2.9% YoY (in line with forecast)
    But up from May, suggesting an uptick that caught investors’ attention.

“There was enough in this report to keep alive concerns that tariffs will stoke inflation.” — Sevens Report

While the report doesn’t eliminate hopes for a Fed cut later this year, September is now far less likely.

Markets were flat at first — but as investors digested the data, stocks began to slip.

Bottom line: This CPI report was “no worse than feared,” but it’s the first real sign that Trump’s tariff policies are starting to ripple through prices — and the next wave of duties is just weeks away.

Also, click here to view the full article published in agweb.com on July 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Trump vs. Powell Means for Markets (Three Scenarios)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Trump vs. Powell Tensions Mean for Markets
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Market Update

Futures are slightly higher after a mostly quiet newswires night of news as tech shares catch a bid on the back of solid earnings and optimistic guidance from global chip-making giant TSMC overnight.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% y/y on the headline while the core figure edged up to 2.3%, also as expected.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with Jobless Claims (E: 233K), Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), the Philly Fed Surve (E: -0.4), Import and Export Prices (E: 0.2% m/m, -0.1% m/m), and the latest Housing Market Index (E: 33) all due to be released.

There are also multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Kugler (10:00 a.m. ET), Daly (12:45 p.m. ET), and Cook (1:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues with TSM ($2.37), GE ($1.43), PEP ($2.03), USB ($1.07), ABT ($1.25), NFLX ($7.07), and IBKR ($0.45) all scheduled to release quarterly reports today.

Bottom line, traders will want to see economic data that pushes back on the ideas of stagflation or a hard-landing (two economic worries of late) and hear a more dovish tone from Fed speakers amid more positive earnings news in order for stocks to extend the recent rally to new records.

A New Type of Research Offering

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A New Type of Research from Sevens Report – Introducing “Special Reports”
  • Economic Takeaways – CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Tamp Down Dovish Policy Hopes
  • Why September Rate Cut Odds Are Receding (Slightly)

Futures are little changed while there is a tentative bid in the bond market as investors continue to digest the June CPI release and look ahead to more earnings today.

Economically, U.K. CPI rose +0.2% to 3.6% y/y vs. (E) 3.4% which is bolstering the pound and weighing modestly on the dollar index this morning as well as capping a rebound in bonds.

Looking into today’s session, the second important inflation print of the week is due to be released before the bell with PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y), and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y) scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET while Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.

A busy week of Fed speak also continues with multiple officials delivering remarks today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET), and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET).

The market will be looking for any signs of “cooler” inflation or modest slowing in growth to rekindle September rate cut hopes which would offer fresh support for the equity market rally.

Finally, earnings season continues with multiple notable companies releasing quarter results today including ASML ($5.94), BAC ($0.86), GS ($9.43), MS ($1.93), JNJ ($2.66), PGR ($4.30), UAL ($3.86), and KMI ($0.28).

Stock Vigilantes May Push Back If Trump Escalates Tariffs Says Tom Essaye

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Sevens Report warns equity markets won’t tolerate unchecked trade risks

‘Stock vigilantes’ could rebel against Trump’s tariffs: Sevens Report

WALL STREET MAY SOON SEND A MESSAGE IF TARIFF THREATS TURN TO ACTION

So far, investors have largely shrugged off Trump’s tariff rhetoric, assuming he won’t follow through on aggressive trade threats.

But according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, that complacency may soon fade if tariffs actually hit.

“It’s possible that stock vigilantes could appear… If Trump views the new highs in stocks as a ‘green light’ to escalate the trade war, it may well have to decline to remind the administration…”

Essaye argues that the U.S. economy can absorb around 10% aggregate tariffs, but anything more could threaten a return to stagflation-like conditions.

The term “stock vigilantes” borrows from “bond vigilantes”—investors who sell U.S. debt in protest of fiscal mismanagement. This time, equities could become the market’s way of saying “enough.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 14th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Stock Vigilantes Coming to this Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Do tariffs start to boost inflation this month?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Important inflation and growth updates this week.

Futures are modestly lower following more tariff threats over the weekend.

President Trump announced 30% tariffs on the EU and non-USMCA goods from Mexico starting August 1st, although the modest decline in markets still implies investors think tariff rates will be negotiated lower ahead of the deadline.

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Chinese exports, which beat expectations (5.8% vs. (E) 5.0%).

This week is an important one from an economic standpoint as we’ll get important updates on inflation (via CPI & PPI) and growth (via retail sales), but the week starts quietly as there are no notable economic reports today.

On earnings, the Q2 reporting season begins to heat up this week via big bank earnings, although today the only notable report to watch is FAST ($0.28).

ASX Nears Record Although U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Clouds Global Outlook

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Tom Essaye warns Fed may delay cuts until trade policy stabilizes

ASX on track to break record; big miners jump

AUSTRALIAN MINERS SURGE WHILE U.S. POLICY RISKS SIMMER

The ASX is on track to hit a new record as mining stocks jump, but U.S. trade and rate policy remain a source of global market concern.

According to Tom Essaye, author of the Sevens Report, Trump’s unpredictable tariff strategy could force the Fed to delay a rate cut beyond September.

“There’s zero chance we’ll have tariff clarity by August 1, which makes a July rate cut impossible.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Even if Trump sticks to the current deadline, Essaye warns, markets expect a delay, which pushes rate decisions further into the year.

“The Fed will want to wait a few months to see what impact these new tariff rates have on the economy.”

Essaye also noted a potential political backlash if higher-for-longer rates persist, which could escalate tensions between Trump and Fed Chair Powell.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Indopremier.com published on July 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Stocks Hit Highs as Airlines Lead But Tariff Delays Threaten Outlook

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Tom Essaye warns delayed trade policy could derail rate cut expectations

U.S. Stocks Reach New Highs as Airlines Soar, Trade Tensions Persist

TRADE POLICY CLOUDS THE OUTLOOK DESPITE STOCK GAINS

U.S. stocks reached new highs Thursday, boosted by a rally in airline shares, but analysts are sounding caution as tariff uncertainty lingers.

Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, warned that fluctuating trade policies are likely to impact Fed decisions in the coming months.

“The likelihood of a clear tariff policy before August 1 is zero… which means a July rate cut is off the table.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye emphasized that continued delays in trade clarity reduce the odds of a September cut and increase the risk of a longer high-rate environment.

“That raises the risk of economic slowdown.”

Despite bullish price action, underlying policy risks remain unresolved, keeping markets exposed to macro-driven pullbacks.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on AInvest.com published on July 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Markets Hold Up Despite Tariff Risk, Sevens Report Urges Caution

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Tom Essaye warns a deeper selloff is possible if negative headlines persist

US Stocks End Slightly Lower in Week Roiled by Tariff Headlines

TARIFF UNCERTAINTY LOOMS OVER MARKETS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND

U.S. stocks ended slightly lower Friday after a volatile week driven by ongoing tariff headlines. While markets showed notable resilience, the risk of escalation remains very real, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

“Markets have been impressively resilient… but if negative trade headlines continue, don’t be surprised if this early selloff accelerates.”
— Tom Essaye, Sevens Report

Essaye emphasized that tariff rates may climb far higher than expected, and the market may be underpricing the potential fallout.

“…because tariff rates are possibly going much, much higher than previously expected.”

With investor focus shifting toward the Fed’s next move and earnings season ahead, any further deterioration in trade sentiment could trigger renewed volatility.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on July 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here