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Shutdown’s End Brings Key Economic Data Back Into Focus, Says Sevens Report

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Shutdown’s End Brings Key Economic Data Back Into Focus, Says Sevens Report

US Stocks Gain as Dip Buyers, Hopes of Shutdown End Drive Rally

With an end to the record-breaking government shutdown in sight, traders are preparing for the return of key economic data releases. Over the past week, investors relied heavily on private reports, which suggested a softening labor market.

Official government data is expected to soon provide clearer insights into employment, inflation, and the broader outlook for interest rates.

“With the shutdown ending this week, it’s unclear at this point how quickly economic data will ‘catch up,’ but the fact that we will be getting key economic reports is a general positive for markets,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on November 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Understanding Why Stocks Hit New Highs

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Why Stocks Hit New Highs
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Goldilocks Growth and Inflation Data Continue?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: September Flash PMIs Tuesday, Core PCE Price Index Friday are Key Reports

Futures are modestly lower as markets digested last week’s new highs following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Politically, the U.S. government could shut down this Friday and that is weighing slightly on markets, although we don’t view any temporary, partial shutdown as a risk to the rally.

There was no notable economic data overnight.

Today the only economic report is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: -0.19) and it’s unlikely to move markets, so focus instead will be on the Fed.

There are several Fed speakers today and the most important of them is Williams at 9:45 a.m. ET.  If Williams embraces two additional rate cuts this year, that should help support markets.  More broadly, markets will want to see dovish tones from most Fed speakers going forward, confirming the Fed intends several more rate cuts.  Other Fed speakers today include: Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (12:00 p.m. ET) and Barkin (12:00 p.m. ET).

 

September Bitcoin Update and Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • September Bitcoin Update and Outlook
  • What Yesterday’s CPI Means for Markets

Futures are slightly lower on mixed data and earnings overnight.

ADBE was the latest tech company to post earnings and the results were solid (beat on EPS and revenue and a guidance increase) but concerns about AI sapping demand for software kept gains modest (ADBE is up 3% pre-market).

Economically, data was mixed.  UK Industrial Production badly missed estimates (-1.3% vs. (E) 0.5%) while German CPI and UK Monthly GDP both met expectations.

Today the only notable economic report is University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 58.0) and focus will be on the inflation expectations.  As long as they don’t move sharply higher, it’ll cap a generally positive week for markets on the inflation front (which has been the main reason stocks are higher this week).

 

Jobs Day

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview

Futures are modestly higher ahead of the jobs report and following solid tech earnings overnight.

Semiconductor company Broadcom (AVGO) beat estimates and offered bullish guidance and the stock is up 9% pre-market and that’s helping to lift futures.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders missed estimates, felling –2.9% vs. (E) 0.5%.

Focus today will be on the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  E: 77K Job-Adds, 4.3% Unemployment Rate, 3.8% Wage Growth.  Any job adds number in the mid to low 100k range would be ideal for stocks as it would keep rate cut expectations high but also signal a stable labor market.  Conversely, if job adds drop close to zero (or even go negative even with revisions) it’ll increase concerns the labor market is cooling, boost slowdown fears and likely hit stocks.

 

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance as the Fed Faces Twin Pressures

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Tom Essaye: Fed Faces Twin Pressures of Rising Inflation and Weakening Jobs

Fed is in the ‘worst possible’ position, analyst says

Central bank policy outlook grows more complicated heading into fall

The Federal Reserve is under mounting pressure as inflation shows signs of picking up while the labor market begins to soften, according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

Speaking on Opening Bid, Essaye explained that this combination leaves the Fed in a difficult policy position heading into the fall. The central bank must balance the risk of tightening too little against the danger of tightening too much at a time when economic growth is already showing cracks.

“The Fed is caught between two mandates,” Essaye noted, adding that rising producer and consumer price data alongside weakening job gains increases the likelihood of a policy dilemma in the coming months.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on August 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Breakeven Inflation Rates: Powell Has a “Price Problem”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Breakeven Inflation Rates:  Powell Has a “Price Problem”

Futures are modestly lower following a night of underwhelming earnings.

Earnings overnight were bad as tech companies DELL (–6% pre-market) and MRVL (-15% pre-market) both posted disappointing results, as did retailer GAP.

Economically, German retail sales missed expectations (-1.5% vs. (E) 0.0%) but that isn’t moving markets.

Today focus will be on inflation via the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and to keep things simple, if this number is “hot” (so Core PCE Price Index above 3.0% y/y) that will increase inflation concerns, push back on rate cut hopes and, likely, pressure stocks further.  The other notable economic report today is Consumer Sentiment (E: 58.6) and focus will be on the inflation expectations inside the report.  The less they rise from last month, the better.

 

Tom Essaye: Hot PPI Data Undermines Stock-Market Rally Pillars

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Surging producer prices raise doubts on inflation, Fed cuts, and profits

Thursday’s hot PPI challenges three pillars of stock-market rally

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye said Thursday’s hotter-than-expected PPI report has chipped away at three key supports of the 2025 stock-market rally.

The first is confidence that inflation is on track to the Fed’s 2% target. The second is the assumption that a September rate cut is locked in. Essaye warned that if PPI flows into CPI, the Fed could face a “mandate dilemma” between curbing inflation and supporting growth.

The third is optimism for continued corporate profit growth in 2026. Rising producer costs, Essaye cautioned, could compress margins and leave investors disappointed.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 15th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Inflation-Driven Bitcoin Drop Doesn’t Derail Long-Term Bullish Outlook

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Sevens Report founder says institutional adoption and regulation support crypto’s future despite near-term volatility

Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Falls 7% as U.S. Inflation Hikes Pressure Rate Cut Prospects

Bitcoin slid 7% on Friday as hotter U.S. inflation data weighed on rate-cut expectations, sparking a broad risk-off move in markets. Despite the pullback, the cryptocurrency remains up roughly 25% year-to-date and has rallied nearly 57% from April’s lows.

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said the short-term volatility reflects Bitcoin’s heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. “Inflation pressures are clearly a headwind in the near term, but the longer-term outlook hasn’t changed,” Essaye noted. He pointed to institutional adoption and regulatory clarity as key drivers supporting Bitcoin’s structural bullish case.

“Volatility will always be part of crypto, but the foundation is getting stronger,” Essaye said, stressing that macro shocks don’t erase the sector’s long-term growth potential.

Also, click here to view the full article on Ainvest.com published on August 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What About the Yield Curve?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What About the Yield Curve (Recession Signal “On Hold”)
  • What CPI Means for Markets

Futures are trading at record highs, tracking global shares higher as traders cheer the latest evidence of benign inflation pressures despite the global trade war.

Economically, German CPI was unchanged at 2.0% in July, meeting consensus analyst estimates.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today however there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on investor expectations of Fed policy rates between now and year-end which could move markets.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed speakers including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee (1:00 p.m. ET), and Bostic (1:30 p.m. ET).

Finally, there are some late season earnings releases to watch: EAT ($2.43), CSCO ($0.80), EQX ($0.02) but none are likely to materially move markets today.

 

Nvidia, AMD Deal with Trump Administration Eases AI Investor Fears: Tom Essaye

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Chip sales to China continue under new revenue-sharing agreement

Nvidia & AMD investors can put China chip tariff risks ‘to bed’

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye and Allspring Global’s John Campbell discussed reports that Nvidia and AMD reached a deal with the Trump administration to resume selling chips in China, with 15% of the revenue going to the U.S. government.

Essaye said the agreement signals that the companies are “ready to play ball” with policymakers to protect growth in the AI sector. “Eighty-five percent is a lot more than zero,” he noted, calling the resolution a relief for AI-focused investors now that a major uncertainty has been removed.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.