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Oil and Inflation (Worse Than You Might Think)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Oil and Inflation (Worse Than You Might Think)

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as earnings were solid overnight and investors remained optimistic about a U.S./Iran ceasefire.

There was no incremental progress on a U.S./Iran ceasefire overnight but investors ultimately expect a deal in the near term.

Earnings have been the driver of this recent rally and results overnight were solid, highlighted by WDAY (up 8%).

Econ Today: Consumer Sentiment (E: 48.2, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 4.5%), Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%).  Fed Speak: Waller (10:00 a.m. ET).

Focus today will be on geopolitics and any tangible progress towards a U.S./Iran ceasefire will further pressure oil and boost stocks.

Away from geopolitics, the key economic report today is the five-year inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.  Inflation expectations above 3.0% and closer to 4.0% will make the Fed more hawkish and increase rate hike chances, so the closer to 3.0% in that number, the better.

 

What Could Go Wrong for This Market?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Could Go Wrong for This Market?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the ceasefire finally happen?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: A big week for inflation

Futures are little changed despite no incremental progress on an official U.S./Iran ceasefire over the weekend.

On Sunday night President Trump declared Iran’s response to the ceasefire terms “totally unacceptable” and oil is rallying as a result, although markets still believe a ceasefire agreement will be reached (so stocks aren’t down much).

Economically, Chinese CPI rose more than expected (1.2% vs. 0.9% y/y) reflecting the inflationary effects of higher energy prices.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics as there’s only one economic report, Existing Home Sales (E: 4.05M), and it shouldn’t move markets.  Regarding the U.S. and Iran, as long as the U.S. does not initiate widespread attacks on Iran again, markets will continue to view the situation as slowly trending towards a ceasefire (and it shouldn’t be a material negative for stocks).

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Analytics Insight

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US Stock Market Today: Wall Street Eyes Strongest Week Since May on CPI Data and US-Iran Ceasefire Hopes

Tom Essaye of Sevens Report wrote, “As long as the face-to-face meeting Saturday morning isn’t cancelled, geopolitics shouldn’t weigh on markets too much.” Still, economists warned that one or two more strong inflation readings may follow if energy costs stay elevated in the near term.

Also, click here to view the full article on Analyticsinsight.net published on April 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report – MMT Chart (April Update)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (April Update)

Futures are little changed as markets tread water ahead of tomorrow’s U.S./Iran peace talks.

Despite conflicting headlines, the U.S./Iran ceasefire is holding enough for markets to remain stable ahead of face to face meetings Saturday morning.

Economically, the only notable report was German HICP which met expectations (2.8% y/y).

Today geopolitics will remain the dominant force on markets but as long as the face to face meeting Saturday morning isn’t cancelled, geopolitics shouldn’t weigh on markets too much.

Outside of the U.S./Iran war, we get important economic data today via CPI (E: 0.9% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y).  With inflation concerns rising, investors will want to see a better than expected Core CPI reading and if that does not happen and Core CPI spikes, it’ll be an additional negative on the market.

There are two other economic reports today, Consumer Sentiment (E: 52) and Factory Orders (E: -0.3%), but neither should move markets.

 

Is the Tariff Decision a Bullish Catalyst?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Tariff Decision a Bullish Catalyst?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About AI (Key AI Earnings This Week)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  More Inflation and Labor Market Insights

Futures are slightly lower are markets digest the SCOTUS tariff decision and despite reports of some de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran.

Fears of an imminent U.S. strike on Iran eased this weekend as the U.S. and Iran announced they will hold more negotiations this Thursday.

Economically, German Ifo Business Conditions slightly missed estimates (89.6 vs. (E) 90.5).

This week is a potentially important one with a lot of critical tech earnings reports, but it starts slowly as there is just one economic report today, Chicago Fed (E: -0.04) and one Fed speaker, Waller (8:00 a.m.) and neither are likely to move markets.

 

Sevens Report: Small-Cap Rally May Accelerate in 2026

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Tyler Richey says improving macro trends could fuel further gains in smaller stocks.

Most and least shorted REIT stocks with up to $2B market cap as of mid-Feb

Small-cap stocks are off to a strong start in 2026, significantly outperforming large-cap benchmarks. While the S&P 500 has hovered slightly in negative territory year to date, small-cap indexes have posted solid gains, reflecting renewed investor appetite for risk.

According to Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, the rally in smaller companies could intensify as the year progresses. With inflation trending lower, interest-rate cuts looming, and economic conditions remaining relatively stable, the macro backdrop appears increasingly supportive for small caps.

Improving financial conditions tend to benefit smaller firms disproportionately, as they are often more sensitive to borrowing costs and domestic economic growth. If expectations for monetary easing materialize, that could further strengthen the rotation into the segment.

As positioning shifts and macro conditions evolve, Sevens Report suggests small caps could remain an area of focus for investors seeking performance beyond mega-cap stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Seeking Alpha on February 16th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Can the Market Hold Up Despite Tech Weakness?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Market Hold Up Despite Tech Weakness?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Tech (and especially software) stabilize?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: An Important Week for Growth and Inflation

Futures are modestly lower as markets digest Friday’s big rally following a generally quiet weekend of news.

Politically, Japan’s LDP party won a landslide victory, increasing stimulus expectations. But, positively, the yen and Japanese government bonds are stable as the results largely met expectations.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

This week is a busy and important one from an economic data standpoint but it starts quietly, as there are no notable economic reports today.

So, focus will be on the tech sector and if it can extend Friday’s rebound (the SaaS names like WDAY, CRM, NOW, remain the key to tech stabilizing in the near term).

On the Fed front, there are two speakers today, Bostic (10:50 a.m. ET) and Waller (3:15 p.m. ET) and some earnings (CLF ($-0.62), APO ($1.91), ON ($0.62)) but barring any surprises, they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Sevens Report Warns Weaker Dollar Is Supercharging a Run-Hot Economy

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Sevens says Trump-linked dollar weakness is amplifying growth and inflation risks.

How Trump creates another ’run-hot’ influence on the economy

The latest Sevens Report argues that the U.S. economy is being pushed further into a “run-hot” phase as the dollar slides to multi-year lows. According to the firm, President Trump’s dismissal of recent dollar weakness effectively signaled tolerance — if not support — for further depreciation, accelerating trends already in place.

Sevens notes that fiscal stimulus, pressure for lower rates, deregulation, and efforts to pull in foreign capital have already tilted the economy toward overheating. A weaker currency compounds that backdrop by ensuring more liquidity is chasing a limited supply of goods and services, keeping inflation pressures elevated even as growth remains strong.

The report outlines three key transmission channels. First, a softer dollar raises import costs, lifting prices on consumer goods in an import-dependent economy. Second, it boosts earnings for multinational companies, helping explain recent outperformance in technology and consumer discretionary stocks. Third, it inflates the value of real assets such as gold, oil, and other commodities that cannot be diluted like fiat currencies.

Sevens cautions that the dollar’s roughly 11% decline over the past year is far from benign. While markets have absorbed the move so far, a faster slide toward the low 90s could unsettle investors and intensify the risk of sustained inflation alongside resilient growth.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on January 29th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Warns Early-2026 Inflation Signals Are Flashing Red – Business Insider

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Tom Essaye says sector leadership and market rotation echo the painful setup of 2022.

The stock market is flashing a signal that inflation may be poised to spike

Early market action in 2026 is sending a cautionary signal on inflation, according to Tom Essaye of Sevens Report Research, who says investors may be underestimating the risk of a difficult year ahead.

Essaye notes that energy and materials stocks have surged more than 9% year to date, dramatically outperforming the S&P 500’s modest gain. Historically, strength in these sectors has often preceded broader inflation pressures, as higher energy and materials costs filter through supply chains and lift prices across the economy.

In Essaye’s view, the move is especially notable because it has received little attention from market participants so far. He argues that energy prices influence nearly every component of global commerce, while materials costs quietly add upward pressure to inflation through higher input expenses. Together, their strong performance is not something investors should dismiss as the first quarter unfolds.

Adding to the concern is a clear shift in market leadership. Essaye highlights a rotation away from mega-cap growth stocks and toward value, small caps, transportation stocks, and equal-weight indexes. Recent outperformance in benchmarks like the S&P 500 equal-weight index, the Russell 2000, and value-focused ETFs suggests that capital is moving toward areas that often lead during more inflationary or unstable periods.

That combination of sector leadership and early-year money flows reminds Essaye of the setup in early 2022, a year that proved especially damaging for traditional 60/40 stock-and-bond portfolios. While he is not calling for an immediate downturn, Essaye cautions that these dynamics raise the risk of a repeat scenario if inflation pressures continue to build.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on January 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Treasury Yields Remain Stable? (CPI, Possible SCOTUS decision, Fed concerns)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus This Week

Futures are moderately lower following the announcement of a federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell.

On Sunday night the government confirmed it had opened a criminal investigation focused on Fed Chair Powell and the construction of the Fed’s new headquarters.  The net impact of the news is to further pressure Fed independence and that is why futures are declining moderately.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on Washington, first via more details of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell and then on a potential Supreme Court IEEPA tariff decision.  Regarding the Fed, any news that further raises concerns about the loss of Fed independence will send Treasury yields higher and stocks lower.

There are also three Fed speakers today, Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (6:00 p.m. ET) and any dovish commentary from the three should help support markets (Williams is the most important speaker today).