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The Numbers Inside This Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Numbers Inside This Pullback
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update

Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce on positive trade headlines and decreased shutdown risks.

On trade, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said a meeting with Commerce Secretray Lutnick was “positive” and “productive,” creating some tentative trade optimism.

Elsewhere politically, Democrat minority leader Schumer signaled he’d support funding the government, reducing shutdown chances.

Today focus will stay on trade headlines (of course) while the key economic report today is the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (E: 63.1).  Stability in that report will be encouraging for investors.  Markets will also be focused on the One-Year Inflation Expectations, which spiked to 4.3% on tariff fears.  Any decline in that number back towards 3.0% (where it was before tariffs) will be a positive.

Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Separating Short and Long-Term Market Views

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as investors look ahead to trade meetings and data.

Economically, the only notable report was Euro Zone Industrial Production and it slightly missed expectations (0.8% vs. (E) 1.0%).

Politically, focus will be on two events today, the USMCA renegotiation talks between U.S. and Canadian officials and progress on avoiding a government shutdown on Friday.

Outside of trade and politics, today there are two important economic reports:  Jobless Claims (E: 230K) and PPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.4% y/y).  Because of rising stagflation worries, investors will want to see better than expected numbers from both reports, while a jump in jobless claims would increase growth concerns and hotter than expected PPI would raise fears tariffs are boosting inflation (tariff price pressures will show up in PPI before CPI).

Trump’s comments are weighing on sentiment

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Friday’s nonfarm payrolls is the “first big report of the year”: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

Stock Market Comeback Erased: S&P 500 Sinks To 6-Month Low As Trump Says Don’t ‘Watch The Stock Market’

Trump’s comments are “weighing on sentiment” and “did nothing to ease investor concerns about ongoing policy chaos,” Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye wrote in a Monday note to clients.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The spike in uncertainty and fear that uncertainty will lead to a whole host of negatives

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The spike in uncertainty and fear: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Trump tariffs denting U.S. economy not a “foregone conclusion” – Sevens Report

Fears that uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could lead to a series of negative consequences for the broader economy are worth considering but not a “foregone conclusion,” according to analysts at Sevens Report.

“The reason stocks are dropping is the spike in uncertainty and fear that uncertainty will lead to a whole host of negatives,” the Sevens Report analysts wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

The near-constant stream of “scary” trade-related headlines has also fueled “louder and more frequent” predictions for “continued declines in stocks,” the analysts added.

However, “it’s fear driving this market,” not actual bad economic data or dire company results, they said.

“It’s right to be more cautious on this market and brace for continued volatility,” they added. “But that negative scenario is not a forgone conclusion …”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Where Do We Stand With Tariffs (Updated)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Where Do We Stand With Tariffs? (Updated 3/5/25)

Futures are higher amid risk-on global money flows after U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tariffs on Mexico and Canada could be scaled back as soon as today while the Ukraine-U.S. minerals deal is also seeing progress which is easing geopolitical worries.

Economically, the Eurozone Composite PMI met estimates at 50.2 while EU PPI jumped up to 1.8% vs. (E) 1.4% in January, rekindling still simmering inflation worries.

This morning is lining up to be a busy one as there are several noteworthy and potentially market-moving economic reports due to be released beginning with the February ADP Employment Report (E: 162K). Then, shortly after the open, both Factory Orders (E: 1.4%), and the February ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0) will be released.

There are no Fed speakers today, however there is a 4-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and demand for the short-duration securities could shed light on the latest shifts in Fed policy expectations.

Finally, earnings season continues with notable reports due to be released from ANF ($3.48), MRVL ($0.59), and VSCO ($2.30).

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye

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“Where’s the Trump Put?”: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Up in Late Hours on Hints of Tariff Relief: Markets Wrap

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on March 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Real Are Stagflation Risks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Real Are Stagflation Risks?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Are Tariffs Delayed Again?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Will the “Big Three” Monthly Economic Report Confirm Slowdown Fears?

Futures are modestly higher following solid Chinese economic data and as investors await more details of the looming tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Economically, the Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 vs. (E) 49.9, implying that stimulus is starting to flow through that economy.

On tariffs, the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada start tomorrow, although markets still expect they will be delayed.

Today focus will be first on trade/tariff headlines and any delay in the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada will be an obvious positive and reinforce the market’s belief that tariffs are just a negotiating tool.

Economically, the first of the “Big Three” monthly economic reports comes today via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 50.6) and the stronger that number, the better.

A Caveat to Recent Negative Sentiment Reports

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Caveat to Recent Negative Sentiment Reports

Futures are enjoying a moderate bounce on solid NVDA earnings and following an otherwise quiet night of news.

NVDA earnings and guidance beat estimates and the stock is slightly higher pre-market and holding yesterday’s gains (NVDA rallied 4% into the report yesterday). The results are helping to calm DeepSeek related AI fears.

Given investor’s sudden anxiety towards economic growth, the economic data over the next two days will be important.

Today, the key reports are, in order of importance: Durable Goods (E: 1.9%), Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Revised Q4 GDP (2.3%) and Pending Home Sales (E: -1.2%).  Mostly in-line numbers, especially from Durable Goods, will help push back against the “growth scare” narrative while weak readings will only increase it (and likely pressure stocks).

We also have numerous Fed speakers today including: Barkin (7:30 a.m. ET), Schmid (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (10:00 a.m. ET), Bowman (11:45 a.m. ET), Hammack (1:15 p.m. ET) and Harker (3:15 p.m. ET).  None of them are Fed leadership so their comments shouldn’t move markets materially, but if they talk about possibly having to hike rates due to high inflation, that will be a negative.

Four Reasons Investors Are Worried About Washington

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Are Investors Worried About Washington? (Four Reasons)
  • Chart: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Adds to Growth Fears

Futures are slightly lower as most global markets declined overnight, led by Asian tech stocks, after President Trump reiterated tariff plans for Canada and Mexico and revealed new plans limiting China’s semiconductor industry.

Today, there are two housing market reports to watch: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.3%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), before the more important economic release of the day, Consumer Confidence (E: 103.0) is due to be released shortly after the opening bell.

Following a string of weak economic reports in recent days, the market will be looking for some more upbeat and stable growth and consumer confidence figures today to help equities stabilize.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker in the early afternoon: Barkin (1:00 p.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, both of which have the potential to move bond yields and impact equity market trading.

Finally, earnings season continues with a few notable companies reporting today including: HD ($3.04), KDP ($0.57), AMC ($-0.16), AXON ($1.41), and INTU ($2.58).

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

Futures are little changed following slightly disappointing economic data overnight.

EU and UK flash PMIs underwhelmed as the EU Services PMI declined to 50.7 vs. (51.5) while the UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.4 vs. (E) 48.5, underscoring the economic headwinds facing the EU and UK.

Today focus will stay on economic data and the two key reports are the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.3) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0).  Markets will want to see in-line to slightly weak readings but most importantly, no big jumps in the price indices like we saw in Empire and Philly earlier this week.

Other notable events today include Existing Home Sales (E: 4.16 million) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 68.0) as well as two Fed speakers:  Jefferson (11:30 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:30 a.m. ET).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.