“Economically, global service PMIs were mixed as the euro zone service PMI missed expectations, while the U.K. and Chinese service PMIs were in-line,” noted Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed as markets digest the Thursday/Friday rally amidst a mostly quiet weekend of news.
Oil prices are solidly higher (Brent crude up 1.7%) after Saudi Arabia announced a voluntary 1M bpd production cut for the next month, although that’s not seen as a sustainable bullish catalyst.
Economically, global service PMIs were mixed as the Euro Zone Service PMI missed expectations (55.1 vs. (E) 55.9) while the UK and Chinese service PMIs were in-line.
Today focus will be on the ISM Services Index (E: 52.0.) and specifically the price index in this report. Last week, a sharp drop in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Prices Paid Index ignited the rally, and if we see a similar drop in the services price index, it’ll help extend the rally as markets will get more confident disinflation is accelerating.
What’s in Today’s Report:
S&P 500 futures are solidly higher while Nasdaq futures surge 2% thanks to blow out NVDA earnings.
NVDA beat on revenue and EPS and raised guidance on strong AI chip demand, and the stock surged more than 20% after hours.
Fitch put the U.S. on “credit watch negative” as the potential “X” date for the debt ceiling is less than a week away.
Today focus will be on any debt ceiling progress (although none is expected with the looming holiday weekend) and on economic data, and the most important report is Jobless Claims (E: 248K) and markets will want to see that number flat or just slightly higher (another big jump would increase hard landing worries).
Other data today includes Revised Q1 GDP (E: 1.1%) and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.1%), but neither number should move markets. On the Fed, we have two speakers today, Barkin (9:50 a.m. ET) and Collins (10:30 a.m. ET), but neither should move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed despite a lack of progress on the debt ceiling and an increase in trade tensions between the U.S. and China over the weekend.
There was no progress on the debt ceiling over the weekend although Biden and McCarthy will meet again today to resume negotiations.
China banned the use of Micron (MU) chips in what is yet another escalation in U.S./China trade tensions.
Today focus will be on the debt ceiling and markets will want to hear positive and optimistic commentary from Biden and McCarthy, as the potential “X” date of June 1st is now less than 10 days away.
There are also multiple Fed speakers today, including Bullard (8:30 a.m. ET), Logan (9:00 a.m. ET), Barking & Bostic (10:50 a.m. ET) and Daly (11:05 a.m. ET), but given Powell on Friday reiterated the Fed has likely paused, their comments shouldn’t move markets.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as markets digest Thursday’s extension of the rally and as markets await comments from Fed Chair Powell later this morning.
Economically, the only notable numbers were Japanese CPI (met expectations at 3.5%) and German PPI (slightly hot at 4.1% vs. (E) 4.0%) but neither number changed the outlook for global inflation and, as such, aren’t moving markets.
Today there are no notable economic reports, but there are several important Fed speakers including Chair Powell (11:00 a.m. ET). So far this week, markets have looked past hawkish commentary from regional Fed Presidents but if Powell hints that the Fed may hike rates in June, we could see some of this week’s rally given back. Other Fed speakers today include Williams (8:45 a.m. ET) and Bowman (9:00 a.m. ET).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are rebounding modestly from yesterday’s declines this morning as traders await more clarity on the debt ceiling negotiations (1-Month yield is down 2 bp to 5.56%) and digest in-line European inflation data.
Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 7.0% y/y with the Narrow Core reading falling 0.1% to 5.6%, also as expected but still well above target.
There is just one economic report this morning: Housing Starts & Permits (E: 1.405M, 1.430M) and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.
Retailer earnings continue this morning with TGT ($1.74) reporting ahead of the bell and investors will be looking for more signs of “soft landing” spending trends as we saw with HD yesterday.
As far as other potential catalysts go, there is a 20-Yr. Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET today and any big move in yields could impact stocks (too weak would indicate inflation worries, too strong would underscore growing debt ceiling fears).
What’s in Today’s Report:
Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as traders digest disappointing economic data from overseas and look ahead to today’s debt ceiling negotiations.
Economically, Chinese Fixed Asset Investment slowed in April while Industrial Production came in at just 5.6% vs. (E) 10.7% and Retail Sales rose to 18.4% vs. (E) 22.0%. The underwhelming data is continuing to pour some cold water on hopes that a robust recovery in China will help support broader growth in the global economy this year.
Looking into today’s session there are several economic releases to watch in the U.S. including (in order of importance): Retail Sales (E: 0.7%), Industrial Production (E: 0.0%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 45). Specifically, if Retail Sales is disappointing, that could rekindle hard-landing fears and pressure stocks.
Several Fed officials are also expected to speak today: Mester (8:15 a.m. ET), Bostic (8:55 a.m. ET), Williams (12:15 p.m. ET), and Logan (3:15 p.m. ET). A more cautious tone regarding policy plans would be welcomed while any decidedly hawkish commentary is likely to pressure markets.
Finally, the main focus today will be the debt ceiling talks between the Biden Administration and House Republicans as we are fast approaching the “X date” and prospects of a deal being reached remain very uncertain. Any reported progress on the topic will be well-received today and likely result in a modest relief rally but if concerns about the debt ceiling increase, expect equities to come under pressure.
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Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news as markets look ahead to Wednesday’s CPI, wrote Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Click here to read the full article.
What’s in Today’s Report:
Strong earnings and guidance from tech giants MSFT (+8%) and GOOGL (+1%) after the close yesterday are supporting gains in U.S. equity futures today while more cautious results in Europe are weighing on overseas markets.
Economically, Australian CPI fell to 7.0% vs. (E) 6.9% y/y in the first quarter, down from 7.8% in Q4, but the inflation reading is still well above target and serves as a reminder that global central banks still have work to do in order to get inflation under control.
Looking into today’s session earnings season slows down somewhat with only a few notable companies reporting, including: BA (-$0.98), and GD ($9.34) before the bell, and META ($1.96) after the close.
That will leave investors focused on economic data early with Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.9%) and International Trade in Goods (E: -$90.0B) set to be released. There are no Fed speakers today but there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and impact stocks in afternoon trade.
In Case You Missed It: Our Special Technical Market Update for Sevens Report Subscribers Was Delivered Monday Morning
We continue to receive overwhelmingly positive feedback from our subscriber base regarding Monday’s special technical market update.
The report included analysis on all asset classes starting with the major equity indices across various time frames before looking at the latest investment style and sector trends. Additionally, we dove into currency, commodity, and Treasury market technicals to help identify trends that present both risks and opportunities to portfolios in these historically uncertain market conditions.
Sevens Report Research Tom Essaye Founder and President joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the Fed’s policy pathway moving ahead, inflation, the state of the economy, jobs data, a recession, what investors should be watching for, and the outlook for markets. Click here to watch the full interview.
