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Jobs Report Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (First of Two Key Economic Reports)
  • EIA and OPEC Meeting Analysis

Futures are slightly higher on momentum from Wednesday’s rally and as the market again ignored soft economic data.

Economic data from Europe was again disappointing as German Manufacturers’ Orders slightly missed estimates (-9.0% vs. (E) -8.9%) as did the UK Construction PMI (48.9 vs. (E) 52.0).

Geo-politically, China began massive military drills around Taiwan, although they were previously announced.

Today focus will be on the Bank of England rate decision (E: 50 bps hike) and on weekly Jobless Claims (E: 260K).  Specifically, markets will want to see if the BOE implies more 50 bps hikes are ahead (if so that’s a mild negative for the region).  On jobless claims, will they continue to move methodically towards 300k? (That would be a mild positive as it implies slowing in the labor market, which the Fed needs to get to peak hawkishness).

From a Fed speak standpoint, Mester speaks at 12:00 p.m. ET.

The Latest on Taiwan and China

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Latest on Taiwan and China
  • JOLTS Decline But Remain Historically Elevated
  • Big One-Day Reversal in the 10-Year Yield: Chart

Stock futures are trading cautiously higher this morning as geopolitical angst is easing after Pelosi’s departure from Taiwan while economic data was mostly positive overnight.

Chinese and EU Composite PMIs for July topped estimates while Eurozone PPI was no worse than feared and that data is helping some of the hawkish fears from Tuesday unwind.

Looking into today’s session, earnings season is beginning to wind down but there are still a few notable reports due out today: MRNA ($4.50), CVS ($2.16), YUM ($1.08), HOOD (-$0.36), EBAY ($0.89), and MGM ($0.24).

However, the market’s main focus will be on economic data today with ISM Services Index (E: 53.0) and Factory Orders (E: 1.1%) both due out shortly after the open while there is one Fed speaker: Harker (10:30 a.m. ET).

Investors will want to see still solid growth numbers in the data, further easing in inflation readings, and hopefully a less hawkish tone out of the Fed if the July relief rally is going to extend into August.

What Escalating U.S.-China Tensions Mean for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Escalating U.S.-China Tensions Mean for Markets
  • What’s the Fed’s Endgame With Rates?
  • How Low Could Oil Prices Go?

Stock futures are lower and the 10-year yield fell to a 4-month low overnight amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and China over Speaker Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan.

Speaker Pelosi is scheduled to land in Taiwan later this morning despite repeated and stern warnings from China about a potential military response to the visit and the elevated tensions are resulting in equity market weakness and rising demand for safe havens assets such as Treasuries.

Looking beyond geopolitics, there are a few other potential catalysts to watch today including two economic reports: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 13.5M) and JOLTS (11.0M), as well as two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Evans (9:00 a.m. ET) and Bullard (6:45 p.m. ET).

Earnings season also continues today with results from CAT ($3.00), JBLU (-$0.11), MAR ($1.59), TSEM ($0.52), AMD ($1.03), PYPL ($0.85), and SBUX ($0.77).

Bottom line, markets are trading with a risk-off tone due to the U.S.-China tensions surrounding Taiwan however a meaningful escalation including military action between the U.S. and China remains very unlikely, and as such the pressure on equities is not expected to deepen or last very long and market focus is likely to turn back to Fed policy later in the week as the July jobs report is due out on Friday.

What Can Take Stocks Sustainably Higher?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Can Take Stocks Sustainably Higher?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Does Fed Commentary Get Less Hawkish?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report Friday

Futures are slightly lower as markets digest last week’s big rally and following generally disappointing European economic data.

Data from Europe underwhelmed as German Retail Sales plunged –9.8% vs. (E) 7.5%, the biggest annual drop in 40 years.

The July EU and UK manufacturing PMIs were in-line with low expectations (Euro Zone manufacturing PMI 49.8 vs. (E) 49.6 and UK manufacturing PMI 52.1 vs. (E) 52.2.)

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 52.2) and markets will want to see a moderation in the data – a decline to show economic momentum is cooling, but no sudden drop.  Practically speaking, if the ISM PMI drops to or below 50, that might scare markets that the economy is slowing too quickly.

Tom Essaye Quoted by Forbes on July 27th, 2022

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Fed Raises Interest Rates By 75 Basis Points Again As Investors Brace For Recession

By making borrowing more expensive and thereby tempering demand, rate increases are critical in combating inflation, but “growing fears” that the hikes will spur a recession by undercutting economic growth are the “driving forces” behind recent market weakness, says analyst Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report. Click here to read the full article.

Two Clear Takeaways from the Fed Decision

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Two Clear Takeaways from the Fed Decision
  • EIA Analysis and Oil Update

Futures are modestly lower on disappointing earnings and the increased probability of higher corporate taxes.

Earnings from META, QCOM, and others disappointed and that’s reversing some of Wednesday’s tech-driven gains.

Senate Democrats agreed on a smaller Build Back Better bill that includes some corporate tax increases, although it’s still not clear when this becomes law.

Today will be a busy day from a data and earnings standpoint.  Economically, Jobless Claims (E: 249K) is the key report and if it moves considerably above 250k that will signal further deterioration in the labor market.  We also get Preliminary Q2 GDP (E: 0.5%) and as we said yesterday, don’t be shocked if it’s negative and you hear a lot of recession commentary.

On the earnings front, today is an important day and the key reports will be:  PFE ($1.72), MA ($2.36), AAPL ($1.14), AMZN ($0.15), INTC ($0.69).

Brace for a Recession on Thursday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Brace for a Recession on Thursday
  • Housing Data Points to Slowdown in Real Estate Market
  • Chart: S&P 500 Holds 50-Day Moving Average by One Point

Stock futures are solidly higher this morning as quarterly earnings results from tech giants MSFT and GOOGL were both well received by investors after the close yesterday while investor focus shifts to the Fed today.

This morning, economic data will be in focus early with Durable Goods Orders (E: -0.5%), International Trade in Goods (-$103.2B), and Pending Home Sales (-1.0%) all due out by 10:00 a.m. ET.

From there, expect price action to slow considerably as focus turns to the Fed with the FOMC Meeting Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by the Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

Markets have priced in a 75% chance of a 75 basis point hike today while no changes to forward-guidance are expected so any variance from those expectations could result in sizeable moves in the market this afternoon.

Finally, earnings season remains in full swing with SHOP ($0.03), TMUS ($0.41), HLT ($1.06), SHW ($2.81) reporting ahead of the bell and META ($2.51), F ($0.43), and QCOM ($2.86) releasing results after the close. Any of those reports could lead to sector specific volatility despite the Fed today.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on July 22nd, 2022

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The Stock Market Is at a Crossroads. What to Watch Next.

You’ve seen a relief rally, the Fed maybe being slightly less hawkish than you think is the hope…said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research. Click here to read the full article.

What Happens After Inflation Peaks?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Happens After Inflation Peaks?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Fed Decision Wednesday
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Q2 GDP and Inflation Stats are the Highlights

Futures are modestly higher as markets bounce from Friday’s declines, following a quiet weekend and as investors look forward to numerous important catalysts this week.

Chinese authorities are considering some restrictions on movement in Shanghai as COVID cases rise, but are still resisting broad lockdowns (for now).

Economically, German Ifo Business Expectations declined further (80.3 vs. (E) 83.3).

Today there’s only one notable economic report, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (E: 0.05), and markets will want to see stability here following last week’s disappointing data.  If this number is surprisingly weak (like the PMIs last Thursday/Friday) then that will likely weigh on stocks as recession fears grow.

Earnings season continues and this will be a very busy and important week for results.  Some earnings we’ll be watching today include:  WHR ($5.22), NXPI ($3.39), and LOGI ($3.39).

Another Factor Fueling the Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • SPX Breaks Through Several Key Resistance Levels: Chart
  • Another Factor Fueling the Rally

Stock futures are slightly higher this morning as yesterday’s sizeable rally is digested amid news that Russia will resume gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline this week.

Economically, German PPI came in below expectation but U.K CPI and PPI both came in slightly hot which is offering mixed signals regarding whether we have reached peak inflation not globally.

Looking into today’s session, we will get another report on the housing market: Existing Home Sales (E: 5.400M), and investors will again be looking for a less dismal print than Monday’s Housing Market Index release.

There are no Fed speakers today, but the Treasury will hold a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and impact equity trading (especially if it sends yields meaningfully higher).

Finally, traders will remain focused on earnings with ABT ($1.07) and BIIB ($4.10) releasing results ahead of the bell and TSLA ($1.73), UAL ($1.86), CSX ($0.47), and DFS ($3.74) reporting after the close.

Bottom line, near-term market momentum has taken a decidedly bullish shift, and while we could see a modest pullback as yesterday’s outsized gains are digested further if news flow remains even slightly positive, the path of least resistance is still higher into the end of the week.