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MMT Chart: A Rare Oversold Condition

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart:  A Rare Oversold Condition

Futures are moderately lower (down around 1%) as investors take profits following Wednesday’s massive rally.

There was no new tariff or trade news overnight and investors digested the good news/bad news of no punitive global reciprocal tariffs (positive) but still-in-place 125% tariffs on China and 10% tariffs on most U.S. imports (negative).

Today focus will turn back towards economic data and the two key reports are CPI (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and Jobless Claims (E: 225K).  A weaker than expected CPI and lower than expected jobless claims will push back against stagflation concerns and help stocks potentially extend yesterday’s rebound.

Turning to the Fed, there are multiple speakers today but they are unlikely to move markets (the Fed is in “wait and see” mode like the rest of us).  Speakers today include:  Barkin (8:30 a.m. ET), Logan (9:30 a.m. ET), Schmid & Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), Goolsbee & Harker (12:00 p.m. ET).

April Market Multiple Table Update

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • April Market Multiple Table Update
  • Chart – March Small Business Optimism Turns Sharply Lower

Futures are recovering from overnight losses as investors await China’s reaction to the latest wave of tariffs that went into effect overnight amid otherwise quiet news flow.

Economically, there were no market-moving reports overnight, however the Reserve Bank of New Zealand did cut their policy rate by 25 bp (3.75%), meeting expectations.

There are no notable economic reports today which will leave investors largely focused on trade war developments and tariff headlines today.

Outside of tariff news, traders will be watching a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET as well as the March FOMC meeting minutes which will be release at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Finally, there is one Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (12:30 p.m. ET). Any less discouraging commentary will be welcomed by markets today.

Bull vs. Bear: Which Argument Makes More Sense?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bull vs. Bear:  Which Argument Makes More Sense?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will There Be Any Tariff Relief?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Focus Turns to Inflation (CPI on Thursday)

Futures are sharply lower again (down close to 2%) as there was no meaningful tariff relief over the weekend while administration officials reiterated their support for the current tariff policy.

Trump, Bessent and Lutnick all downplayed the market declines and doubled down on the current tariff policy.

On tariff relief, Vietnam, Japan, the UK and others expressed a desire to negotiate tariffs lower, but nothing concrete occurred.

Today focus will remain on tariff headlines and any headlines that imply tariff relief could cause a sharp rebound, given the intensity of the recent declines.  There is one Fed speaker today, Kugler (10:30 a.m. ET), but she shouldn’t move markets.

The Bull Case vs. the Bear Case (Updated Post Tariffs)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Bull Case vs. the Bear Case (Updated Post Tariffs)
  • Jobs Day

Futures are sharply lower again (down more than 2%) as there were no incrementally positive trade headlines overnight.

Unsurprisingly, messaging from the White House was contradictory overnight, as President Trump said he’s open to negotiations on tariff reduction while aides said the opposite and the mixed messaging is only increasing investor angst.

Today, trade headlines will continue to dominate markets and any continued mixed/contradictory messaging from the White House will only pressure stocks further, while any evidence that tariff reduction is possible could cause a bounce.

Away from trade, today is the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  131K Job-Adds, 4.2% Unemployment Rate, 4.0% y/y Wage Growth.  If the jobs report is soft, it’ll only make the selloff worse as recession fears rise, while a strong jobs report will likely be dismissed as “outdated” now that we have the new tariff regime.

Finally, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 11:25 a.m. ET and if he’s dovish there could be a mild bounce in stocks, but I’m afraid the Fed can’t really fix this problem for the markets.  There are two other Fed speakers,  Barr (12:00 p.m. ET) and Waller (12:45 p.m. ET) but they shouldn’t move markets.

That marks the start of what could be a crippling trend of declining demand

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That marks the start of what could be a crippling trend of declining demand: Tyler Richey Quoted in Market Watch

U.S. oil supplies rise sharply, and trade-war ‘angst’ may be to blame for a drop in demand

“If that drop in demand is being fueled by tariff worries and trade-war angst … then that marks the start of what could be a crippling trend of declining demand that would, barring supply-side surprises, spark a selloff in oil,” Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. That could see U.S. benchmark prices begin to sell off toward the downside target of between $57 and $58 a barrel, he said. May West Texas Intermediate crude was up 21 cents, or 0.3%, at $71.41 a barrel, after losing 0.4% Tuesday.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on April 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The name is still too expensive to buy, Essaye said

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The name is still too expensive to buy: Tom Essaye Quoted on Yahoo Finance

Palantir (PLTR) Is Called Too Expensive by Schwab Guests

Similarly, Essaye said that PLTR should be examined “in a context of reasonable valuation.” Although the shares are down a great deal from their highs, the name is still too expensive to buy, Essaye said. He added that the stock is being pressured by worries over the AI sector and fears about lower spending on contracts by Washington.

“Federal contracts are a large part of the company’s business,” Essaye noted.

Expressing his view of PLTR more bluntly, Essaye said that it “can continue to decline,” adding that it would have to drop a great deal more before he would “become interested” in it.

“It’s a good company, but it’s so richly valued that it can fall quite a bit more before value buyers step in,” he warned.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Yahoo Finance published on April 1st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist
  • GDP Details Point to Economic Weakness Emerging in Q4

U.S. equity futures are flat to lower this morning as traders continue to digest this week’s fluid tariff and trade war developments ahead of critical domestic inflation data.

Economically, Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index came in at -24.5 vs. (E) -22.0 while the official German Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2%. The downbeat German data is weighing on EU markets.

Today, focus will be on inflation data early with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric due out ahead of the bell: PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y), Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y). A cooler-than-expected or in-line number will be well-received by investors.

Then after the open, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will be released (E: 57.9, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 4.9%) and markets will want to see a stabilizing headline and steady or lower 1-Yr inflation expectations in order for markets to stage a rebound.

Finally, there are two Fed speakers this afternoon: Barr (12:15 p.m. ET) and Bostic (3:30 p.m. ET). Fed speak has been on the hawkish/cautious side this week so any encouraging commentary or a dovish tone would be welcomed, especially in the wake of “cool” inflation data.

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Composite PMI Flash Takeaways – Another Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are back to flat after trading lower overnight on profit taking as traders digest the latest trade war headlines and subsequent rally off the 2025 stock market lows.

Economically, Germany’s Ifo Survey was mostly upbeat as the headline Business Climate Index firmed to 86.7 vs. (E) 87.0 and Business Expectations jumped to 87.7 vs. (E) 86.8. The solid data is helping support gains in EU markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released starting with a few housing market releases: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.5%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), and New Home Sales (E: 679K).

Then after the open, the most important economic report of the day is due out: Consumer Confidence (E: 94.2) and investors will want to see a less-dismal data set in the survey-based release as the February consumer reports weighed heavily on risk assets.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Williams (9:05 a.m. ET) and a few late-season earnings reports from MKC ($0.64 and GME ($0.09), but neither are likely to move markets today.

 

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Did the Fed Just Do Mini QE?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did the Fed Just Do Mini QE?

Futures are modestly lower following several disappointing earnings results after yesterday’s close.

Earnings overnight were underwhelming as FedEx (FDX down 8% pre-market), Lennar (LEN –4% pre-market) and Nike (NKE down 6% pre-market) all posted weak results or soft guidance, adding to the list of recently disappointing results.

Today the calendar is quiet as there’s no notable economic data and just one Fed speaker, Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), although he is part of Fed leadership and if he’s dovish, that should support markets.

On the earnings front, the only notable report is Carnaval Corp (CCL $0.02) and investors will want to see continued solid results to show consumers are still spending on vacations.

Refined-products demand is beginning to slip

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Refined-products demand is beginning to slip: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Market Watch

Oil tallies back-to-back gains as Middle East flare-ups lift risk of supply disruption

In the U.S., analysts at Sevens Report Research said in a Thursday newsletter that the most attention-grabbing development in Wednesday’s EIA petroleum report was a “sharp and sudden” drop of 365,000 barrels per day in gasoline supplied, which is a proxy for consumer demand at the pump.

The decline “suggests the trend in refined-products demand is beginning to slip amid growing uncertainty about the economy in 2025,” the Sevens Report analysts said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on March 20th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.