Posts

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Composite PMI Flash Takeaways – Another Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are back to flat after trading lower overnight on profit taking as traders digest the latest trade war headlines and subsequent rally off the 2025 stock market lows.

Economically, Germany’s Ifo Survey was mostly upbeat as the headline Business Climate Index firmed to 86.7 vs. (E) 87.0 and Business Expectations jumped to 87.7 vs. (E) 86.8. The solid data is helping support gains in EU markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released starting with a few housing market releases: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.5%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), and New Home Sales (E: 679K).

Then after the open, the most important economic report of the day is due out: Consumer Confidence (E: 94.2) and investors will want to see a less-dismal data set in the survey-based release as the February consumer reports weighed heavily on risk assets.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Williams (9:05 a.m. ET) and a few late-season earnings reports from MKC ($0.64 and GME ($0.09), but neither are likely to move markets today.

 

Sevens Report Q1 ’25 Quarterly Letter Coming Next Tuesday

Investor sentiment is literally at all-time lows, markets are volatile, and clients are nervous. Now is the time to remind them that long-term plans can overcome periods of volatility! 

One of the easiest and best ways to do that is with a quarterly letter, and we will be releasing the Q1 2025 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter to subscribers next Tuesday, April 1st. 

The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter is a turn-key client communications solution. We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)…
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis… and
  • Strengthen client relationships, all with little-to-no work from you!

To learn more about the product (including price) please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

Did the Fed Just Do Mini QE?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did the Fed Just Do Mini QE?

Futures are modestly lower following several disappointing earnings results after yesterday’s close.

Earnings overnight were underwhelming as FedEx (FDX down 8% pre-market), Lennar (LEN –4% pre-market) and Nike (NKE down 6% pre-market) all posted weak results or soft guidance, adding to the list of recently disappointing results.

Today the calendar is quiet as there’s no notable economic data and just one Fed speaker, Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), although he is part of Fed leadership and if he’s dovish, that should support markets.

On the earnings front, the only notable report is Carnaval Corp (CCL $0.02) and investors will want to see continued solid results to show consumers are still spending on vacations.

What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are moderately lower as markets digest and give back some of Wednesday’s post-Fed rally, following a generally quiet night of news.

There were no new tariff headlines overnight while economic data (UK Labour Market Report) met expectations.

Today focus will turn back to economic data and there are several notable reports including, in order of importance, Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 11.5), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.95 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.2%).  Given rising economic worries, the stronger these reports (especially the first two) the better.

There are also several important earnings reports to watch today including ACN ($2.84), MU ($1.44), NKE ($0.28), FDX ($4.66), PDD ($2.56).  Given recent soft guidance from various companies, the stronger the results and guidance, the better for markets.

Bullish News for European Stocks

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish News for European Stocks
  • Why Did Stocks Drop?
  • Chart: Long-Term Bearish Reversal in Dow Theory

Futures are rebounding from yesterday’s ~1% pullback amid progress towards a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine, “cool” inflation data overseas, and trader positioning into the Fed decision this afternoon.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) fell from 2.5% Y/Y to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% in February, which is being well received by investors in pre-market trade as the Fed decision comes into focus.

There are no notable economic reports today although there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy rate expectations with the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference looming later this afternoon.

The FOMC meeting announcement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET shortly before Fed Chair Powell’s mid-afternoon press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will almost certainly be the “main event” of the trading session as investors look for clarity on monetary policy outlook given the recent escalation in trade war developments and the subsequent sense of market uncertainty that has come with it.

Finally, while earnings season is winding down, there are a few consumer-focused companies reporting quarterly results today: WSM ($2.91), GIS ($0.95), and FIVE ($3.38).

A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased

/in , , /by

A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased: Analysts at Sevens Report Research Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices resume slide, ending lower as tariff fears spark stock-market tumble

Meanwhile, the prospect of Trump administration efforts leading to a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has “greatly increased,” and should the war come to an end sooner than expected, it’s likely sanctions on Russia’s energy industry could be lifted, adding a sizeable amount of crude to the global market, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Monday note.

“Combining those influences, it is becoming increasingly likely that a physical markets surplus emerges in the months ahead, which could send WTI futures prices down towards $50/barrel later in 2025,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

FOMC Preview: Clarity on the “Fed Put”

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Meeting Preview – Clarity on the “Fed Put”
  • Retail Sales & Empire State Manufacturing Data Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower as the bounce off of last week’s multi-month lows is being digested while trader-focus is turning to the March FOMC meeting which begins today.

Economically, the March German ZEW Survey saw its headline edge up from -88.5 to -87.6 while the Economic Sentiment component jumped from 26.0 to 51.6 vs. (E) 35. The data was well received and is amplifying already elevated optimism surrounding a looming German parliament vote on a massive spending package (focused on defense spending) that is expected to bolster economic growth.

In the U.S., there are several economic reports to watch today including: Housing Starts (1.383M), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.1% m/m, -0.2% m/m), and Industrial Production (E: 0.2%), however with the Fed decision looming tomorrow, none are expected to meaningfully move markets today.

The only other noteworthy, potential catalysts today are a pair of Treasury auctions, the first for 52-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and the second for 20-Yr Bonds at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong demand in the shorter durations bills would be seen as dovish and “market-friendly” while too strong of demand for 20-Yr Bonds could rekindle worries about the economy.

What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Is the Fed Put in Play?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Updates on Growth (The Stronger the Data, the Better)

Futures are modestly lower mostly on digestion of Friday’s big rally and following a relatively quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there were no new tariff headlines, threats or social media postings over the weekend and if that lasts it would be a near-term positive for markets.

Economically, the only notable number was the Italian HICP (their CPI) which met expectations, rising 1.7% y/y.

Focus will remain on trade headlines but outside of the tariff drama this is an important week of economic data.  Today focus will be on two reports, Retail Sales (E: 0.7%) and Empire Manufacturing Index (-1.9).  If both numbers are better than expected they will push back on the idea policy chaos is slowing the actual economy (and help stocks).  However, if they’re weaker then expected, look for economic anxiety to grow (and stocks to drop).

We can hope for is a churn sideways

/in , , /by

We can hope for is a churn sideways: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Trump Wants an Economic ‘Detox.’ What It Means for Stocks.

According to Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye, “until there’s some movement towards stable policy, the best we can hope for is a churn sideways between around 5,700 and 6,000 in the S&P 500.” The index broke below 5650 in morning trading Monday.

Sevens Reports’ Essaye notes that concern about tariffs so far has been worse than their effects. While it makes sense to brace for volatility, “that negative scenario is not a foregone conclusion and actual facts on the economy and earnings [are] hanging on.” he says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Jobs Day

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Day
  • Is Europe Finally Ready to Grow?
  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)

Futures are modestly higher following Thursday’s declines on solid tech earnings and as markets look ahead to today’s jobs report.

Broadcom (AVGO) earnings beat estimates and the stock is up 11% pre-market and that’s helping tech bounce.

Economically, German Manufacturers’ Orders badly missed expectations, falling –7.0% vs. (E) -0.9%.

Today the two big scheduled events are the jobs report and Powell’s speech.  For the jobs report expectations are 160K Job-Adds, 4.0% UE Rate, 4.1% Wages y/y.  In-line data will push back hard on stagflation fears and likely fuel a bounce in stocks (as long as there are no negative tariff headlines).

For the Fed, Powell (12:30 p.m. ET) is the most important speaker but we also hear from Williams & Bowman (10:15 a.m. ET) and Kugler (1:00 p.m. ET).  As long as those officials (especially Powell) reinforce that they expect rate cuts, it should help support markets.

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye

/in , , /by

“Where’s the Trump Put?”: Tom Essaye Quoted in SwissInfo.ch

Stocks Up in Late Hours on Hints of Tariff Relief: Markets Wrap

“Where’s the Trump Put?” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report. “At what level of stock market ‘pain’ would Trump and the administration reverse course? Obviously, we don’t know the exact number, but if we look back at Trade War 1.0, history implies the ‘Trump Put’ would be elected around a 10% decline in the S&P 500.”

Also, click here to view the full article published on March 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Swissinfoch logo

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.