Posts

Is There Any Value Left in Tech?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is There Any Value Left in Tech?
  • Jackson Hole Powell Speech Preview
  • EIA and Oil Market Analysis

Futures are slightly lower despite generally solid economic data overnight.

EU and UK August flash PMIs were mostly solid, with Composite PMIs rising for both regions and staying above 50.

Today is a busy day of economic data and the key reports, in order of importance, are:   Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 49.7), Flash Services PMI (E: 53.0), Jobless Claims (E: 224K), Philly Fed (E: 8.0), Existing Home Sales (E: 3.90 million) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  Especially with the flash PMIs, solid data that pushes back on any slowdown narrative will be welcomed by stocks.  There is also one Fed speaker today, Bostic at 7:30 a.m. ET, but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, notable retailer results continue today with WMT ($0.73), while there are some other notable reports as well: BILI ($0.08), ZM ($0.77), INTU ($1.30), WDAY ($0.80), ROST ($1.52).

 

Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Concentration Risks Warrant Attention
  • Housing Starts Data Takeaways

Futures are modestly lower but off session lows as the recent tech-led stock market pullback is being digested as the Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium comes into focus.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) met estimates at 2.0% on the headline and 2.3% on the core figure which is easing recently elevated concerns about a broad-based resurgence in global inflation pressures, subsequently helping equities bounce off the lows.

There are no economic reports today, however the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and investors will be scouring the details for any new insights on Fed policy plans for H2’25.

Additionally, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Waller (11:00 a.m. ET) and Bostic (3:00 p.m. ET) as well as a 20-Yr Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on investor growth/inflation expectations (and therefore could most stocks).

Finally, retailers continue to dominate earnings news this week with multiple notable major corporations reporting quarterly results today including: TGT ($2.09), EL ($0.08), TJX ($1.01), LOW ($4.23), BIDU ($1.32), and COTY ($0.01). Evidence of ongoing consumer resilience would be a positive for risk assets and likely help stocks stabilize from the early week pullback today.

 

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Market’s Perspective on Peace Efforts in Ukraine
  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist

Futures are slightly lower amid a “sell-the-news” reaction to the lack of a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine after President Trump’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky.

There were no notable economic reports overnight leaving investors focused on geopolitics and retailer earnings.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic report to watch: Housing Starts (1.290M), and following yesterday’s soft Housing Market Index release, a soft number could weigh further on currently fragile, albeit still resilient, investor sentiment towards the economy.

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on conviction for a September Fed rate cut (the stronger the demand for the Bills, the better) while one Fed official is scheduled to speak in the afternoon: Bowman (2:10 p.m. ET).

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are some important retailer/consumer earnings this week with notables reporting today to include: HD ($4.71), MDT ($1.23), TOL ($3.59), SQM ($0.52). It will be important for earnings to continue to show consumer spending trends remain resilient, otherwise economic worries could weigh on markets this week.

 

Why the Hot PPI Threatens Multiple Pillars of the Rally

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Hot PPI Threatens Multiple Pillars of the Rally

Futures are little changed despite soft Chinese economic data and disappointing earnings.

Economically, Chinese data was soft as Fixed Asset Investment, Industrial Production and Retail Sales all missed expectations.

On earnings, Applied Materials (AMAT) gave weak guidance and is down –15% pre-market, weighing on tech.

Today focus will be on economic data and for stocks to rally into the end of the week, we need to see solid reports (and avoid any weak reports that further stagflation anxiety).  The key report today is Retail Sales (E: 0.5%), although Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 0.5), Industrial Production (E: 0.0%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 62.1) are all notable as well.  Bottom line, solid growth data and tame inflation expectations in Consumer Sentiment would help stocks finish the week strong.

 

Nvidia, AMD Deal with Trump Administration Eases AI Investor Fears: Tom Essaye

/in , /by

Chip sales to China continue under new revenue-sharing agreement

Nvidia & AMD investors can put China chip tariff risks ‘to bed’

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye and Allspring Global’s John Campbell discussed reports that Nvidia and AMD reached a deal with the Trump administration to resume selling chips in China, with 15% of the revenue going to the U.S. government.

Essaye said the agreement signals that the companies are “ready to play ball” with policymakers to protect growth in the AI sector. “Eighty-five percent is a lot more than zero,” he noted, calling the resolution a relief for AI-focused investors now that a major uncertainty has been removed.

Also, click here to view the full video featured on Yahoo Finance published on August 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)
  • Gold Chart: Fragile Record Highs

Futures are flat as traders look ahead to today’s all-important CPI report.

Economically, the U.K.’s Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.7%, as expected, while the German ZEW Survey missed estimates, but the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 vs. (E) 98.9 from 98.6 in June.

Today, market focus will be almost exclusively on inflation data before the bell with CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

After the open, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET) and Schmid (10:30 a.m. ET), and any comments or insights they may offer in reaction to the CPI data could move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are a handful of companies due to report quarterly results today which could move markets, including: CAH ($2.03), SE ($0.72), RGTI ($-0.05), HRB ($2.81), CRCL ($-1.29), and ETOR ($0.49).

 

Why Wednesday’s Bond Volatility Is Important (Trump vs. Powell)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Wednesday’s Bond Volatility Is Important (Trump vs. Powell)

Futures are slightly higher following more dovish commentary from a Fed member and generally “fine” earnings.

Fed Governor Waller called for a 25-bps cut at the July FOMC meeting in a speech overnight, although markets assume he’s now jockeying to be the next Fed Chair and a rate cut this month remains very unlikely.

Today the economic calendar is mostly quiet (there are only two reports, Housing Starts (1.300M) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 60.7) and neither should move markets) but there are some notable earnings to watch including, in order of importance:  AXP ($3.86), SCHW ($1.09), MMM ($2.01), SLB ($0.73), ALLY ($0.78), TFC ($0.92).  In particular, if customer spending and management commentary from AXP is positive, that will further underscore that the consumer remains resilient in this uncertain environment.

 

Sevens Report Special Report: Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold

The Sevens Report Special Report: Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold has been met with extremely positive feedback as thought-provoking research.

As a reminder, this report is free for all Sevens Report subscribers and can be accessed on the “My Reports” section of www.sevensreport.com.   

Some subscribers have expressed interest in sharing this with clients, both as a Sevens Report branded publication and as a “White Labeled” version, and that option is available for purchase for a discounted price. 

To learn more about the white labeled version of the Asteroid Mining & the Future of Gold Special Report, please click this link.   

A New Type of Research Offering

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A New Type of Research from Sevens Report – Introducing “Special Reports”
  • Economic Takeaways – CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Tamp Down Dovish Policy Hopes
  • Why September Rate Cut Odds Are Receding (Slightly)

Futures are little changed while there is a tentative bid in the bond market as investors continue to digest the June CPI release and look ahead to more earnings today.

Economically, U.K. CPI rose +0.2% to 3.6% y/y vs. (E) 3.4% which is bolstering the pound and weighing modestly on the dollar index this morning as well as capping a rebound in bonds.

Looking into today’s session, the second important inflation print of the week is due to be released before the bell with PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y), and Core PPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y) scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET while Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.

A busy week of Fed speak also continues with multiple officials delivering remarks today including Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Hammack (9:15 a.m. ET), and Barr (10:00 a.m. ET).

The market will be looking for any signs of “cooler” inflation or modest slowing in growth to rekindle September rate cut hopes which would offer fresh support for the equity market rally.

Finally, earnings season continues with multiple notable companies releasing quarter results today including ASML ($5.94), BAC ($0.86), GS ($9.43), MS ($1.93), JNJ ($2.66), PGR ($4.30), UAL ($3.86), and KMI ($0.28).

Stock Vigilantes May Push Back If Trump Escalates Tariffs Says Tom Essaye

/in , /by

Sevens Report warns equity markets won’t tolerate unchecked trade risks

‘Stock vigilantes’ could rebel against Trump’s tariffs: Sevens Report

WALL STREET MAY SOON SEND A MESSAGE IF TARIFF THREATS TURN TO ACTION

So far, investors have largely shrugged off Trump’s tariff rhetoric, assuming he won’t follow through on aggressive trade threats.

But according to Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, that complacency may soon fade if tariffs actually hit.

“It’s possible that stock vigilantes could appear… If Trump views the new highs in stocks as a ‘green light’ to escalate the trade war, it may well have to decline to remind the administration…”

Essaye argues that the U.S. economy can absorb around 10% aggregate tariffs, but anything more could threaten a return to stagflation-like conditions.

The term “stock vigilantes” borrows from “bond vigilantes”—investors who sell U.S. debt in protest of fiscal mismanagement. This time, equities could become the market’s way of saying “enough.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on July 14th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Tale of Three Markets (And Playbooks for Each)

Stock futures rallied to fresh all-time highs overnight thanks to news the U.S. government will ease restrictions on chip sales to China, specifically some of NVDA’s more powerful AI-chips as CPI data and big bank earnings loom.

There are a slew of potential market catalysts this morning starting with inflation data as CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) data for June will be released ahead of the bell along with one of the first July economic reports, the Empire State Manufacturing Index (-10.0).

Investors will be looking for data that pushes back on stagflation or hard landing scenarios to keep the stock rally going.

Additionally, there are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak including Bowman (9:15 a.m. ET), Barr (12:45 p.m. ET), Barkin 1:00 p.m. ET), and Collins (2:45 p.m. ET). The market will be looking for positive economic commentary and/or hints of a potential rate cut this month.

Finally, today also marks the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season with several big banks and other noteworthy U.S. companies reporting results including: JPM ($4.51), C ($1.61), BLK ($10.78), WFC ($1.41), BK ($1.74), STT ($2.36), JBHT ($1.34). The stronger the corporate results, the better as strong earnings growth is priced in for the year ahead with equities trading at current levels.