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Is the Tariff Announcement A Bearish Gamechanger?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is the Tariff Announcement A Bearish Gamechanger?
  • Jobs Report Preview

Global markets are sharply lower as S&P 500 futures fall three percent in response to President Trump’s worse than feared reciprocal tariff announcement.

President Trump announced baseline 10% tariffs on virtually all imports and dramatically higher tariffs on numerous major trading partners, dramatically intensifying the global trade war and spiking global recession concerns.

Today focus will remain on trade and any hint that the announced tariffs could be negotiated lower will help stocks bounce, while the administration dismissing negotiations will only add more downward pressures to markets.

Away from trade, there are several important economic reports today including Jobless Claims (E: 226K) and the ISM Services PMI (E: 53.0).  If those numbers disappoint, the selling will get worse as recession fears surge.  Finally, there are two Fed speakers today, Jefferson (12:30 p.m. ET) and Cook (3:30 p.m. ET), although they shouldn’t move markets.

Tariff Week

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tariff Week
  • Weekly Market Preview:  All About Tariffs (How Bad Will It Be?)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Is the U.S. Economy Rolling Over?  (We Get the Big Three Economic Reports This Week)

Futures are sharply lower as articles over the weekend implied the looming tariff announcements could be both chaotic and more far-reaching than previously thought.

The WSJ, Politico, New York Times and others warned the administration’s tariff policy 1) Isn’t yet finalized (raising fears of more policy whiplash) and 2) Is more intense than articles implied last week.

Economically, Chinese economic data was good as March manufacturing and services PMIs both beat estimates.

This week is a potentially pivotal one for markets with Wednesday’s looming tariff announcements and key economic data but it starts slowly as there are no notable reports today.  As such, we can expect tariff preview articles to drive trading (and the more articles point to intense tariffs, the lower stocks will go).

New ETFs for Your Watchlist

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist
  • GDP Details Point to Economic Weakness Emerging in Q4

U.S. equity futures are flat to lower this morning as traders continue to digest this week’s fluid tariff and trade war developments ahead of critical domestic inflation data.

Economically, Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index came in at -24.5 vs. (E) -22.0 while the official German Unemployment Rate ticked up 0.1% to 6.3% vs. (E) 6.2%. The downbeat German data is weighing on EU markets.

Today, focus will be on inflation data early with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric due out ahead of the bell: PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y), Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y). A cooler-than-expected or in-line number will be well-received by investors.

Then after the open, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will be released (E: 57.9, 1-Yr Inflation Expectations: 4.9%) and markets will want to see a stabilizing headline and steady or lower 1-Yr inflation expectations in order for markets to stage a rebound.

Finally, there are two Fed speakers this afternoon: Barr (12:15 p.m. ET) and Bostic (3:30 p.m. ET). Fed speak has been on the hawkish/cautious side this week so any encouraging commentary or a dovish tone would be welcomed, especially in the wake of “cool” inflation data.

Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: A Somewhat Shocking Discovery
  • February Durable Goods Takeaway
  • EIA Data Takeaways and Oil Update

U.S. futures are lower with most global equity markets this morning as President Trump announced fresh details about automobile tariffs and other new trade policies after the close yesterday, further raising trade war angst.

Economically, Chinese Industrial Profits edged down -0.3% in February, an improvement from January’s -3.3% print, but the report was not enough to offset tariff worries.

Today, market focus will be on economic data early in the day with Final Q4 GDP (E: 2.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 225K), International Trade in Goods (E: $-135.5B), and Pending Home Sales (E: 2.9%) all due to be released.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Barkin (4:30 p.m. ET) and a few more late-season earnings reports due from SNX ($2.91) and LULU ($5.87) that could move markets (but likely will not given the focus on global trade policies right now).

Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard
  • Composite PMI Flash Takeaways – Another Whiff of Stagflation

Futures are back to flat after trading lower overnight on profit taking as traders digest the latest trade war headlines and subsequent rally off the 2025 stock market lows.

Economically, Germany’s Ifo Survey was mostly upbeat as the headline Business Climate Index firmed to 86.7 vs. (E) 87.0 and Business Expectations jumped to 87.7 vs. (E) 86.8. The solid data is helping support gains in EU markets.

Looking into today’s session, there are several economic reports due to be released starting with a few housing market releases: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.5%), the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.2%), and New Home Sales (E: 679K).

Then after the open, the most important economic report of the day is due out: Consumer Confidence (E: 94.2) and investors will want to see a less-dismal data set in the survey-based release as the February consumer reports weighed heavily on risk assets.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Williams (9:05 a.m. ET) and a few late-season earnings reports from MKC ($0.64 and GME ($0.09), but neither are likely to move markets today.

 

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Did the Fed Just Do Mini QE?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Did the Fed Just Do Mini QE?

Futures are modestly lower following several disappointing earnings results after yesterday’s close.

Earnings overnight were underwhelming as FedEx (FDX down 8% pre-market), Lennar (LEN –4% pre-market) and Nike (NKE down 6% pre-market) all posted weak results or soft guidance, adding to the list of recently disappointing results.

Today the calendar is quiet as there’s no notable economic data and just one Fed speaker, Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), although he is part of Fed leadership and if he’s dovish, that should support markets.

On the earnings front, the only notable report is Carnaval Corp (CCL $0.02) and investors will want to see continued solid results to show consumers are still spending on vacations.

Bullish News for European Stocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Bullish News for European Stocks
  • Why Did Stocks Drop?
  • Chart: Long-Term Bearish Reversal in Dow Theory

Futures are rebounding from yesterday’s ~1% pullback amid progress towards a ceasefire deal between Russia and Ukraine, “cool” inflation data overseas, and trader positioning into the Fed decision this afternoon.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (their CPI equivalent) fell from 2.5% Y/Y to 2.3% vs. (E) 2.4% in February, which is being well received by investors in pre-market trade as the Fed decision comes into focus.

There are no notable economic reports today although there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy rate expectations with the Fed announcement and Powell’s press conference looming later this afternoon.

The FOMC meeting announcement will hit the wires at 2:00 p.m. ET shortly before Fed Chair Powell’s mid-afternoon press conference (2:30 p.m. ET) which will almost certainly be the “main event” of the trading session as investors look for clarity on monetary policy outlook given the recent escalation in trade war developments and the subsequent sense of market uncertainty that has come with it.

Finally, while earnings season is winding down, there are a few consumer-focused companies reporting quarterly results today: WSM ($2.91), GIS ($0.95), and FIVE ($3.38).

A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased

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A cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has greatly increased: Analysts at Sevens Report Research Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices resume slide, ending lower as tariff fears spark stock-market tumble

Meanwhile, the prospect of Trump administration efforts leading to a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine has “greatly increased,” and should the war come to an end sooner than expected, it’s likely sanctions on Russia’s energy industry could be lifted, adding a sizeable amount of crude to the global market, analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Monday note.

“Combining those influences, it is becoming increasingly likely that a physical markets surplus emerges in the months ahead, which could send WTI futures prices down towards $50/barrel later in 2025,” they wrote.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published in Morningstar on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil

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A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil: Tyler Richey, Sevens Report Co-Editor, Quoted in OilPrice.com

Trump Talks To End Ukraine War Involve Power Plants

A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil prices if Trump pushes for the removal of sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Geopolitical stability may also “largely extinguish the still simmering ‘fear bid’ in the oil market.” Sanctions by the Biden administration roughly tripled the number of directly sanctioned Russian crude oil tankers, enough to affect around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd)

Also, click here to view the full article published by OilPrice.com on March 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Is the Fed Put in Play?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Important Updates on Growth (The Stronger the Data, the Better)

Futures are modestly lower mostly on digestion of Friday’s big rally and following a relatively quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there were no new tariff headlines, threats or social media postings over the weekend and if that lasts it would be a near-term positive for markets.

Economically, the only notable number was the Italian HICP (their CPI) which met expectations, rising 1.7% y/y.

Focus will remain on trade headlines but outside of the tariff drama this is an important week of economic data.  Today focus will be on two reports, Retail Sales (E: 0.7%) and Empire Manufacturing Index (-1.9).  If both numbers are better than expected they will push back on the idea policy chaos is slowing the actual economy (and help stocks).  However, if they’re weaker then expected, look for economic anxiety to grow (and stocks to drop).