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It was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis

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It was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis: Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

GDP estimates boost hopes for a soft landing

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said the report “was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis by itself, but it was a step in that direction as investors will want to start seeing the decline in headline job openings slow as part of a soft landing dynamic and still-healthy labor market.”

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on October 30th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Election Day Scenario Analysis (Good, Bad, Ugly)

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Election Day Scenario Analysis (Good, Bad, Ugly): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Good/Bad/Ugly Election Scenario Analysis
  • Chart – S&P 500 Violates Critical Uptrend off August Lows

Stock futures turned higher with Asian shares overnight thanks to better-than-expected Chinese economic data as trader focus shifts ahead to Election Day in the U.S.

Economically, China’s October Composite PMI rose to 51.9 vs. (E) 50.4, up from 50.3 in September which supported solid gains in Asian shares overnight with Chinese benchmarks rising more than 2%.

Today, the general elections in the U.S. will clearly dominate the headlines however there is one key economic report to watch shortly after the open: ISM Services PMI (E: 53.5).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting however there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could roil markets if it is much stronger than anticipated (flight to safety) or much weaker than expected (fiscal concerns/higher yields).

Lastly, there are a few earnings to watch today as well with MPC ($0.97) reporting ahead of the open and key semiconductor company SMCI ($0.51) after the close along with tech-focused communications company, LUMN ($-0.20).

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Why Stocks Dropped (Two Main Reasons)

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Why Stocks Dropped (Two Main Reasons): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped (Two Main Reasons)
  • Jobs Day (Abbreviated Jobs Report Preview)

Futures are modestly higher following “ok” earnings from major tech firms overnight and ahead of the jobs report.

AMZN and INTC posted solid earnings while AAPL results were only mildly disappointing and the cumulative reports are boosting futures this morning.

Economically, the UK manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.9 vs. (E) 50.3, keeping BOE rate cut expectations elevated.

Today focus will be on economic data, starting with the jobs report and expectations are as follows:  106K Job-Adds, 4.1% UE Rate, 4.0% y/y Wage Growth.  The jobs report isn’t the only important report today, however, as we also get the October ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.6).

Bottom line, both numbers need to come in close to expectations to help stocks extend this morning’s early bounce.  Data this week has been a bit “hot” and it’s pushed Treasury yields higher and Fed rate cut expectations lower and that’s weighed on stocks.  In-line reports this morning would be Goldilocks and would reverse that trend (and further fuel this morning’s bounce).

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One of the more important lessons I’ve learned

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One of the more important lessons I’ve learned: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

High Yield Bonds May Be Sending an Ominous Message, Says One Analyst

One of the more important lessons I’ve learned in my two-plus decades of watching markets is that bond markets can (and often do) lead stock markets. That’s why we watch bonds so closely. A recent technical breakdown in the high-yield ETF JNK [SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF] has caught our attention.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on October 25th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Goldilocks data that’s in-line with expectations is the best outcome

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Goldilocks data that’s in-line with expectations is the best outcome: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Yahoo Finance

S&P 500 Sees First Gain This Week as Tesla Up 22%: Markets Wrap

“Goldilocks data that’s in-line with expectations (so not too good or too bad) is the best outcome for a continued rebound in stocks and bonds,” said Tom Essaye at The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full Bloomberg article on Yahoo Finance published on October 24th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Unhealthy Price Action and Revisiting Credit Spreads

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Unhealthy Price Action and Revisiting Credit Spreads: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Tech Update – An Unhealthy Start to a Critical Two Weeks
  • What Credit Spreads Are Saying About the Economy and Markets
  • JOLTS Data Takeaways – Available Jobs Fall Below Previous Cycle Peak (2019)

Equities are mixed in pre-market trade as earnings dominate early money flows.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq futures are outperforming and holding overnight gains thanks to solid earnings from GOOG helping to offset disappointing guidance from AMD while CAT earnings are weighing on Dow futures. S&P 500 futures are little changed.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Q3 GDP Flash firmed to +0.4% vs. (E) +0.2% largely thanks to growth in Germany which is easing concerns about the health of the EU economy and that is ultimately resulting in a favorable pullback in the recently strong dollar.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 115K), and Q3 GDP Report (E: 3.0%) both due out before the bell while Pending Home Sales (E: 1.0%) will be released shortly after the open.

There are no Fed speakers today as they remain in their “blackout period” ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting which will leave traders watching for more earnings. Notable companies reporting today include: LLY ($1.52), CAT ($5.33), and HUM ($3.48) before the open, and  MSFT ($3.08), META ($5.17), and ALL ($2.20) after the close.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Yesterday’s “Inside Day” Means for Markets

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What Yesterday’s “Inside Day” Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Yesterday’s Inside Day Means for Markets
  • Takeaways From Oil’s Reaction to Israel’s Retaliatory Air Strikes

Futures are flat this morning while global markets rallied modestly overnight amid quiet news flow as traders look ahead to multiple important catalysts looming over the next week.

Economically, data was largely encouraging overnight as the Japanese Unemployment Rate fell to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.5% while the German GfK Consumer Climate Index rose to -18.3 vs. (E) -20.5, however, neither report meaningfully impacted markets.

Looking ahead to the U.S. session, there are several noteworthy economic releases today beginning with a housing market report, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 5.2%), before we the first labor market report of this critical jobs week, JOLTS (E: 7.9 million), and finally Consumer Confidence (E: 99.1).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today but there is a 7-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The 7-yr auction is notable because soft demand in past auction have roiled bond markets and sparked volatility in equities, something to watch for today.

In corporate news, this critical week of earnings begins in earnest today with consumer-focused companies including PYPL ($1.08), MCD ($3.18), and BP ($0.78) reporting before the bell while tech giants AMD ($0.92) and GOOG ($1.83) report after the close along with credit card staple V ($2.58).

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

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 Boeing’s loss this quarter is breathtaking: Tom Essaye Interviewed On Schwab Network

Boeing (BA) Plummets on Double Earnings Miss

The size of Boeing’s (BA) loss this quarter is “breathtaking,” says Tom Essaye, going on to call the numbers “horrific.” But, he adds, what’s important is how well they execute on their recovery plan. Nicolas Owens notes the recent machinist strike cost Boeing billions of dollars, and that the new CEO is looking for “fundamental culture change.”

Also, click here to view the full interview with Schwab Network published on October 23rd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Barron’s Senior Managing Editor and Deputy Editor speak with Tom Essaye

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Semiconductor stocks have cycle-leading characteristics: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, interviewed on Barron’s Live

Talking Markets with Sevens’ Report Tom Essaye

Barron’s Senior Managing Editor Lauren R. Rublin and Deputy Editor Ben Levisohn speak with Tom Essaye, Founder and President of Sevens Report about the outlook for financial markets, industry sectors, and individual stocks.

Tom Essaye: Absolutely. So the number one message we’re trying to convey in the Sevens Report is for investors to really stay focused on economic growth. And the reason I say that is because if growth can’t hold up, then we have to talk about this rally potentially ending in a very uncomfortable way. And for those of us who have been in the markets for a long time, at least at the start of this century, we’ve seen that happen a few times and it’s very painful. And if you think about investing, those are really the types of markets we want to avoid. So with the Fed cutting rates, we now know that if growth rolls over, they will not be able to cut fast enough to prevent any sort of a slowdown. So to use the analogy, the die has been cast to a point. Now the Fed is cutting and we must see if growth holds up. Everything that’s going on around growth, so how many cuts are they going to have in 2024? What’s going to happen with the election? Is the Chinese stimulus going to be enough? All of those are ancillary issues, but the main issue is growth. Because if growth rolls over, now we have to talk about that being a rally-killing event and those are the big events we want everyone to be able to avoid.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s interview published on MarketWatch on October 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

 

How Bullish Are Investors? (The Answer May Surprise You)

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How Bullish Are Investors? (The Answer May Surprise You): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Bullish Are Investors?  (The Answer May Surprise You)

Futures are modestly higher following a night of solid earnings and mixed economic data.

TSLA is rallying 11% pre-market after posting stronger than expected earnings and that’s helping futures rally.

Economically, EU and UK flash PMIs were mixed but, on balance, Goldilocks enough to support a bounce in stocks.

Today focus will shift from earnings to economic data and the important reports today are:  Jobless Claims (E: 247K), Oct. Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 47.6) and the Oct. Flash Services PMI (E: 55.0).  Goldilocks data that’s in-line with expectations (so not too good or too bad) is the best outcome for a continued rebound in stocks and bonds today.

We also have one Fed speaker today, Hammack at 8:45 a.m. ET, and some notable earnings including UPS ($1.65), AAL ($0.13) and COF ($3.70).  But, barring any major surprises they shouldn’t move markets.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.