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Three Keys to a Bottom Updated (Not Good)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Keys to a Bottom Updated (Not Good)
  • Weekly Market Preview: All About the Fed
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Survey Data in Focus

Global stocks are trading sharply lower and bond yields rose to new multi-year highs overnight amid fears that the Fed is getting more aggressive into an economic slowdown.

In the wake of Friday’s hot CPI report, rate markets are now pricing in a 75 basis point hike by the Fed in the next three months which saw the 10s-2s spread invert overnight underscoring renewed and growing recession worries.

Looking into today’s session, there are no notable economic reports, and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

There are two Treasury Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET (3-Month Bills and 6-Month Bills). And while they are typically lesser followed, the results could shed light on market expectations of Fed policy in the coming months and if we see rates continue to surge higher, especially those with shorter duration, then concerns about a more aggressive stance by the Fed will likely keep pressure on risk assets today.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg Quint on February 24, 2022

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Bitcoin’s Digital Gold Luster Fades as Customary Havens Win Out

Bitcoin is much more of a momentum and risk-driven asset than it is the independent store of value that people want it to become, it’s not there yet…said Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who founded The Sevens Report newsletter. Click here to read the full article.

Tom Essaye Quoted in The Coin Republic on June 17, 2021

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Investors bullish despite Bitcoins Volatility: Survey

The Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye said that Bitcoin needs to have more widespread legitimate adoption for… Click here to read the full article.

Was the Strong CPI Report A Bearish Gamechanger?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Was the Strong CPI Report a Bearish Gamechanger?
  • Inflation Hedge Part 2:  Natural Resource Stock ETFs
  • EIA and Oil Market Update

Futures are modestly lower mostly on momentum from Wednesday’s drop following a generally quiet night.

There was no new inflation news overnight, but investors are cautious ahead of the PPI report this morning, which should be similarly strong to yesterday’s CPI report.

Bitcoin and the entire crypto-currency space is getting hit hard after Tesla (TSLA) announced it would no longer accept Bitcoin as a form of payment and that’s weighing on some of the momentum parts of the market.

Looking forward to today, the key number will be PPI.  Expectations for PPI are 0.3% m/m and 5.9% y/y but if the numbers come in much stronger expect that to send yields higher and to hit stocks, at least temporarily.

The other notable number this morning is Jobless Claims (E: 475K) although that will start to fade a bit in importance as the market views the issues in the labor market as supply based (people not choosing to work) rather than demand based (people not being able to work).

There are also three Fed speakers today Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET), Waller (1:00 p.m. ET), Bullard (4:00 p.m. ET), and any commentary on inflation will be closely watched.