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Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update & Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update & Outlook

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news.

Applied Materials (AMAT) posted strong earnings but, like CSCO, they weren’t as good as hoped for and the stocks is lower pre-market (down 6%) and that is a mild headwind on futures.

Economically, the only notable number was Q2 EU flash GDP which met expectations at 0.4% q/q.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 54.2) and Five- Year Inflation Expectations: (E: 3.3%).  The “best” case for stocks is for solid (but not spectacular) retail sales and five-year inflation expectations that decline closer to 3.0%, as that will reinforce solid growth and continue this week’s trend of easing inflation pressure.

 

Monthly Bitcoin/Crypto Market Updates

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin/Crypto Market Updates

Futures are little changed following a quiet night of news as efforts are underway to restore the U.S./Iran ceasefire.

There were no direct U.S. attacks on Iran overnight and U.S. officials said the two sides were still working on re-establishing a ceasefire.

Economically, German HICP (their CPI) was the only notable report and it met expectations at 2.4% y/y.

Today focus will stay on geopolitics and any progress on reestablishing the U.S./Iran ceasefire will pressure oil and should help boost stocks.  From an economic standpoint, today is quiet but next week is not, as next week has the potential to impact markets in numerous ways (economic data, inflation and earnings).  More on that in Monday’s Report.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (May)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (May)

Futures are sharply lower as rising Treasury yields and inflation concerns pressure stocks following the Trump-Xi summit.

The Trump-Xi meeting ended with few concrete agreements as markets continue to monitor oil-driven inflation risks tied to the Iran conflict.

Economically, Japanese PPI YoY surged above expectations (4.9% vs. (E) 3.0%) and reinforced inflation concerns.

There are two economic reports due out in the U.S. today: Empire Manufacturing (E: 7.8) and Industrial Production (E: 0.2%).

There are no notable earnings today, while investors will continue to monitor Treasury yields, oil prices, and any updates from the Trump-Xi summit.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (March)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (March)

Futures are modestly lower as oil rises near $110/bbl amid continued Middle East escalation overnight.

Iran warned of “zero restraint” while attacks have reduced Qatar LNG output invoking force majeure on short-term deliveries and raised risks to regional energy supply.

Economically, German PPI came in at -0.5% m/m vs. (E) 0.3% m/m which continues a trend of easing producer inflation but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will remain on geopolitics and oil, although it is a Quadruple Witching Options Expiration which could increase volatility into the close.

There are no economic reports or notable earnings today. And Fed Chair Powell will be speaking on Saturday (1:30 p.m. ET).

 

Why Is Bitcoin Still Falling?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Is Bitcoin Still Falling?
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are higher thanks to the combination of a strong Japanese government bond auction and largely as-expected EU inflation data which are both helping yields stabilize after a sharp rise to start December yesterday.

Economically, the Eurozone’s Narrow Core HICP (Core CPI equivalent) held steady at 2.4% vs. (E) 2.5% in November.

Looking into today’s session, we will get data on domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.4 million) which likely won’t have a material impact on markets unless there is a significant drop signaling a potential slowdown in consumer spending.

Additionally, there is one Fed speaker: Bowman (10:00 a.m. ET), and the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Markets are looking for dovish signals via strong demand for short-duration Treasuries and fresh support for a December Fed rate cut.

Finally, there are a few potentially market moving earnings releases today from some AI-sensitive companies including: MRVL ($0.58), CRWD ($0.07), and OKTA ($0.20).

 

Tom Essaye Flags Major Bitcoin Breakdown as Long-Term Holders Exit

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Why crypto’s having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad month

Bitcoin’s latest slide may be signaling more trouble ahead, with several key technical and behavioral indicators turning sharply negative, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

Essaye said one of the earliest warning signs emerged in October, when Bitcoin’s powerful rally wasn’t confirmed by momentum indicators. “As Bitcoin pushed higher, the relative strength index failed to rise with it, and that divergence continued to point to further downside,” he noted.

The more decisive signal came this week when Bitcoin broke below critical support at $106,000, a level closely watched by both institutional and retail investors. The breakdown unleashed a wave of selling that Essaye described as unusually intense.

“This wasn’t driven by short-term traders — this was long-term investors exiting the market,” he said. The surge in selling volume reflects that shift: Bitcoin’s latest 4.4% decline occurred on some of the highest turnover of the second half of 2025, a trend Essaye warns has persisted across multiple down days.

The combination of momentum deterioration, major support failure, and heavy long-term holder distribution suggests that pressure may continue to build if prices fall further.

Also, click here to view the full article published in USAToday.com on November 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report Warns Bitcoin Selling Could Trigger a “Doom Loop”

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There could be more pain ahead for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Just Had Its Worst Week in Months. Why Cryptos and Stocks Went in Different Directions Today.

“From a demand perspective it appears there is an early, yet growing, sense of concern that could evolve into full-on panic if the selling pressure continues to intensify further than it already has, as lower prices would prompt more selling in a doom loop of sorts,” analysts at financial research firm Sevens Report wrote on Friday.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on November 21st, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Monthly Bitcoin Update & Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin Update & Outlook

Futures are moderately lower as markets extend Thursday’s selloff mostly on momentum and following some underwhelming economic data.

Chinese economic data was mixed as retail sales (2.9% vs. (E) 2.7%) beat estimates while Industrial Production (4.9% vs. (E) 5.5%) and Fixed Asset Investment (-1.7% vs. (E) 0.9%) missed expectations.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers: Schmid (10:05 a.m. ET), Logan (2:30 p.m. ET) and Bostic (9:20 a.m. ET, 3:20 p.m. ET).  If they’re tone is hawkish towards a December rate cut (as the commentary has been this week from multiple Fed officials) that will further pressure stocks.

 

Why the Crypto ETF Floodgates May Open Soon

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Crypto ETF Floodgates May Open Soon
  • Weekly Market Preview: Fed Decision and the Most Important Week of Earnings
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Does Data Stay Goldilocks?

Futures are moderately higher on trade optimism following positive comments on U.S./China trade negotiations.

Treasury Secretary Bessent said U.S./China trade talks went “very well” this weekend, reducing fears of additional tariffs and raising hopes for tariff relief.

Economically, German IFO Businesses Expectations were better than estimates (91.6 vs. (E) 89.4).

Today we do get two economic reports, Durable Goods (E: 0.01%) and New Home Sales (E: 710k) and markets will want to see in-line numbers to keep the Goldilocks data trend in place.

Beyond today, this is a potentially important week that contains a Fed decision (possibility of a dovish surprise) but, more importantly, key Tech/AI earnings and markets need to see a dovish Fed and strong AI earnings to keep the rally going.

Some earnings we’re watching today include: KDP ($0.54), CAR ($8.11), and WHR ($1.41).

Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey: AI Stock Stumble Signals Bearish Exhaustion

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Mega-cap tech weakness poses broader risks to equity markets

AI stock boom starts to stumble as investors increase bets against sector

A recent stumble in AI-related stocks “highlights some degree of bearish exhaustion in the underlying AI narrative,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“There are signs the market is turning on AI stocks,” Richey warned, adding that a meaningful and lasting rethinking by investors could pose significant risks for the broader equity market. The concern stems from the heavy concentration of mega-cap tech stocks such as NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Meta within the S&P 500 and other major indexes.

“This could be extremely detrimental to even the most vanilla index strategies,” Richey said. With a record amount of U.S. personal wealth tied to equities, a major AI-driven drawdown could create a negative wealth effect, fueling a bear market in stocks and risk assets while pushing investors toward safe havens amid a weakening economy.

Also, click here to view the full article published in S&P Global on September 3rd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.