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Updated Market Outlook

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Updated Market Outlook: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Updated Market Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Will Powell Confirm A September Rate Cut?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  The First Big Number of August (and It Needs to be Goldilocks)

Futures are little changed following a very quiet weekend of news as investors look ahead to more growth data this week and Powell’s speech on Friday.

There was no notable economic data over the weekend or overnight.

Geopolitically, optimism is continuing to build towards a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and that’s weighing on oil prices, although nothing formal has been announced.

Today there is only one economic number, Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%), and barring a big surprise that shouldn’t move markets.  There is also one Fed speaker, Waller (9:15 a.m. ET), and he is part of Fed leadership so if he strongly hints at a September rate cut, that should be a mild tailwind for stocks and bonds.

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The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically)

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The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically): Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Yield Curve May Un-Invert Soon. Why That’s Not Good (Historically)
  • How the Post CPI “Rest of the Market” Rally Is Accelerating

Futures are moderately lower thanks to significant weakness in tech stocks.

Semi-conductor chip stocks are lower this morning on a trifecta of negative news including soft ASML guidance, reports of tighter chip restrictions with China and bellicose rhetoric from Trump on Taiwan in a recent interview.

Focus will remain on economic data today and the most important report is Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) while we also get Housing Starts (1.305M).  As Tuesday showed, markets still want Goldilocks economic reports, meaning they aren’t too strong but don’t point to economic weakness, either.  We also have two Fed speakers, Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET) and Waller (9:35 a.m. ET), but unless one of them floats the possibility of a third rate cut in 2024, they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to roll on and some notable reports today include: ASML ($3.87), JNJ ($2.82), and UAL ($3.97).

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My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown

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My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Stock Market Needs a Strong Economy to Keep Rising. The Data Are Getting Worse.

“My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown because that’s one of the few events that can legitimately cause a material correction in stocks,” writes Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, noting that his worry ticked up last week due to corporate earnings.

However, Essaye warns, it doesn’t always work so neatly. “Twice in my career I have seen investors cheer a slowdown, and both times the Fed was not able to cut rates at the right time to prevent the slowing from becoming a broader economic contraction,” he wrote. “That doesn’t mean they can’t do it this time, but catching a falling knife doesn’t work in real life, it doesn’t work in stock trading, and I’ve never seen it work in monetary policy.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 4th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Growing Economic Concerns

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Growing Economic Concerns: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why I am Getting More Concerned About an Economic Slowdown
  • Weekly Economic Preview – A Critical Week of Data

Futures are higher on momentum from Friday’s late-day rally while news wires were mostly quiet this weekend.

Economically, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose from 45.7 to 47.3 vs. (E) 47.4 in May while the UK’s Manufacturing PMI headline rose from 49.1 to 51.2 vs. (E) 51.3. The as-expected data is having a limited impact on markets, leaving stocks to extend Friday’s rally.

Today, focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing Index (E: 49.8) early with a report on Construction Spending (E: 0.2%) also due out after the open. There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today which leaves the ISM data the key catalysts of the session. A report that is “too hot” or “too cold” could see volatility pick up while a “Goldilocks” number would likely allow Friday’s relief rally to continue.

Finally, the Treasury will hold 3-Month and 6-Month Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET, and while these auctions don’t typically move markets, we are within 6-months of the first expected rate cuts from the Fed so any surprises could impact yields and in-turn move equities.

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Advisor Considerations of the “T+1” Settlement Change

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Advisor Considerations of the “T+1” Settlement Change: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Practice Management Update: Examining the Upcoming Move to T+1 Settlement
  • Long-Term S&P 500 Chart: Greatest Volatility Risk Since January 2022

Futures are flat this morning as economic data was mixed in Europe and global traders await NVDA earnings (tomorrow) to gauge the outlook for AI industry growth.

In Europe, German PPI fell -3.3% vs. (E) -3.1% underscoring that disinflation trends remain underway in the EU while the UK’s CBI Industrial Trends Order Balance dropped -33% vs. (E) -20% adding to global factory sector worries.

Looking into today’s session, there are no economic reports to watch but a handful of Fed speakers on the calendar this morning: Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET), Waller (9:00 a.m. ET), Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), Bostic (9:10 a.m. ET) and Barr (11:45 a.m. ET).

At this point, the higher-for-longer mantra has been absorbed by markets and it would take renewed talk of rate hikes to meaningfully move markets, especially as traders settle in and await tomorrow’s post-bell earnings release from NVDA which is widely viewed as the most important catalyst of this week.

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How Long Can Goldilocks Last?

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How Long Can Goldilocks Last? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Long Can Goldilocks Last?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More Updates on Growth and AI Enthusiasm (NVDA Earnings on Wednesday)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Will the First Big Report of May Confirm Slowing Growth?

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet weekend of news and ahead of another important week of potential market catalysts.

Geopolitics was in focus this weekend as Iranian President Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash, although it appears an accident and oil isn’t rallying on the news.

There was no notable economic data overnight.

Today there are no economic reports but there are multiple Fed speakers including: Bostic (7:30 & 8:45 a.m. ET), Barr & Waller (9:00 a.m. ET), Jefferson (10:30 a.m. ET), Mester (2:00 p.m. ET) and Bostic again (7:00 p.m. ET).  However, for all the commentary, unless multiple Fed officials start openly discussing rate hikes (which is extremely unlikely) their commentary shouldn’t meaningfully move markets.

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Still A Soft Landing, But Growth Is Slowing

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Still A Soft Landing, But Growth Is Slowing: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard Landing/Soft Landing Scoreboard:  Still A Soft Landing, But Growth Is Slowing

Futures are little changed as markets again digested the post CPI rally amidst more in-line inflation data and additional Chinese economic stimulus.

Core EU HICP (their CPI) met expectations, rising 0.7% m/m and 2.7% y/y, and kept a June rate cut on track.

In China, the government announced a sweeping program to support the property industry, potentially adding more critical stimulus to the Chinese economy.

Today focus will be on Leading Indicators (E: -0.3%) and two Fed speakers, Waller (10:15 a.m. ET) and Daly (12:15 p.m. ET), but barring any major surprises, they shouldn’t move markets and further digestion of the new highs is to be expected.

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Are Stagflation Risks Real?

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Are Stagflation Risks Real? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Stagflation Risks Real?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  If Treasury Yields Rebound, Will That Hit Stocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  CPI on Wednesday, Important Growth Data Throughout the Week

Futures are slightly higher following a very quiet weekend of news as investors look ahead to a potentially very important week that includes Wednesday’s CPI report.

China announced plans to sell $140 billion in long term bonds to fund more economic stimulus, which will help combat recession fears in that economy.

There was no notable economic data out over the weekend.

Today focus will be on the New York Fed One Year Inflation Expectations (3.0%).  If they run hot like we saw in Friday’s University of Michigan Inflation Expectations, Treasury yields should rise and pressure stocks.  Outside of that data, we also have two Fed speakers, Jefferson & Mester (9:00 a.m. ET), but they shouldn’t move markets unless they talk about rate hikes.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye explains the gold rally

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Investors piled into a new refuge as the U.S. dollar lost value and interest rate expectations dwindled: Tom Essaye Quoted in Forbes

What’s Up With Gold? Here’s Why Everyone From Costco To Central Banks Is Rushing In.

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye explains the rally initially began late last year, as investors piled into a new refuge as the U.S. dollar lost value and interest rate expectations dwindled before getting a further bump from renewed concerns in 2024 about the potential for lingering inflation. And despite the Costco mania, it’s actually institutional investors and central banks, especially those coming from China, driving much of the surging demand for gold, as investors and bankers from China and other largely non-Western countries look to hedge against an economic downturn scenario while simultaneously lessening their dependence on the American dollar.

Also, click here to view the full Forbes article published on April 10th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Lastly, If you want research that comes with no long-term commitment, yet provides independent, value-added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Easing growth concerns surrounding the world’s second largest economy

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Easing growth concerns surrounding the world’s second largest economy: Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s

Asian Stocks Gain Amid Positive Chinese Data, Bank of Japan Expectations

“Chinese retail sales rose 5.5% [versus expectations of 5.2%] and industrial output jumped 7% [versus expectations of 5%] to start 2024, easing some growth concerns surrounding the world’s second largest economy, however property sector woes persist,” said Tom Essaye, the founder of Sevens Report Research.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on March 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.