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Tom Essaye Says That Markets Still Expect a Lasting Ceasefire

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US Stocks Open Lower as Iran Tensions Lift Oil, but Losses Are Limited

Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report said markets still expect a lasting ceasefire agreement in the relatively near term. Unless ceasefire talks in Pakistan are called off, investors will largely continue to ignore negative geopolitical headlines, he added.

Also, click here to view the full article on Bloomingbit.io published on April 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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Sentiment Update: Stronger Than You Might Think

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: Stronger Than You Might Think
  • Warsh Confirmation Hearing Takeaway
  • Retail Sales – Resilient Consumer Spending Continues

Futures are bouncing back from yesterday’s geopolitically-fueled, late-session losses as President Trump declared an indefinite ceasefire with Iran after the close.

Economically, UK CPI met estimates at 3.3% Y/Y while Core CPI cooled 0.1% to 3.1% vs. (E) 3.2% in March, the latest release to suggest the U.S.-Iran war has not yet had a material impact on inflation pressures globally.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak. However, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and influence equities today.

Finally, earning season continues with GEV ($1.79), BA ($-0.86), T ($0.55), ELV ($10.68), PM ($1.82), IBM ($1.81), LUV ($0.45), and the first Mag-7 name of the season, TSLA ($0.21) due to report today.

 

Technical Take – All Time Highs (Bull vs. Bear Case)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Take – All Time Highs (Bull vs. Bear Case)

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet night of news as markets digested the new highs.

There was no notable news on the U.S. and Iran overnight and the consensus view is that the ceasefire will be extended with an announcement coming any day.

Today focus will remain on Iran although as mentioned, a ceasefire extension is already priced in so if/when that’s announced, it likely won’t be an incremental positive catalyst.

Away from geopolitics, there are three notable economic reports including: Jobless Claims (E: 215K), Philly Fed (E: 12.0) and Industrial Production (E: 0.1%).  Given stagflation fears, solid activity that’s near expectations will be welcomed by markets.  There are also two Fed speakers today, Williams (8:35 a.m. ET) and Miran (10:35 a.m. ET), with Williams the more important of the two (he’s part of Fed leadership).  If he’s a bit hawkish, that could marginally pressure markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to heat up with several important results today including: TSM ($3.31), ABT ($1.14), PEP ($1.55), NFLX ($0.76), AA ($1.60).

 

Sevens Report – MMT Chart (April Update)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (April Update)

Futures are little changed as markets tread water ahead of tomorrow’s U.S./Iran peace talks.

Despite conflicting headlines, the U.S./Iran ceasefire is holding enough for markets to remain stable ahead of face to face meetings Saturday morning.

Economically, the only notable report was German HICP which met expectations (2.8% y/y).

Today geopolitics will remain the dominant force on markets but as long as the face to face meeting Saturday morning isn’t cancelled, geopolitics shouldn’t weigh on markets too much.

Outside of the U.S./Iran war, we get important economic data today via CPI (E: 0.9% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y).  With inflation concerns rising, investors will want to see a better than expected Core CPI reading and if that does not happen and Core CPI spikes, it’ll be an additional negative on the market.

There are two other economic reports today, Consumer Sentiment (E: 52) and Factory Orders (E: -0.3%), but neither should move markets.

 

Market Multiple Table: Renewed Optimism (Maybe a Little Too Much)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table: Renewed Optimism (Maybe a Little Too Much)

Futures are modestly lower on digestion of Wednesday’s big rally, as there was no negative news overnight.

Geopolitically, the U.S./Iran ceasefire is holding, for now, despite conflicting reports of violations.  The next key event is Saturday’s first round of negotiations.

Economically, German Industrial Production was slightly weaker than expected (0.0% vs. (E) 0.3% y/y).

Today the primary focus of markets will stay on geopolitics and whether the ceasefire holds.  While there are conflicting headlines, the key remains President Trump.  As long as he doesn’t post that the ceasefire is off, then regardless of other headlines, it’s still on (at least from a market standpoint).

Outside of geopolitics, we do get some notable economic reports including Jobless Claims (E: 213K), Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y) and Final Q4 GDP (E: 0.7%).  Of the three, the Core PCE Price Index is the most important but it’s February data (so before the war).  That said, if it’s higher than expected, that will only further increase inflation anxiety (which will be a mild negative on this market).

 

What the Ceasefire Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Ceasefire Means for Markets
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency Update (April)
  • Durable Goods Orders Takeaways

Stock futures are sharply higher, and oil is down a staggering 15%+ this morning after a last minute ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran was reached late yesterday, triggering broad risk-on money flows globally.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are no noteworthy economic reports due to be released however, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which will shed light on bond traders “real” reaction to the ceasefire agreement. It will be important to see strong demand in the 10-Yr auction to assure investors stagflation worries have eased amid the ceasefire.

Additionally, while there are no Fed speakers today, the March Fed meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET and any insight on timing (and direction) of the FOMC’s next policy rate move has the potential to move markets this afternoon.

Finally, there are a few noteworthy earnings reports today including DAL ($0.61), RPM ($0.37), and STZ ($1.74), however, the primary market focus will remain on the ceasefire deal, and any geopolitical developments today, particularly negative ones that push back on the prospects that the deal is sustainable, could trigger a retracement of the massive overnight moves.

 

Geopolitical Headlines Will Remain The Primary Focus Says Tom Essaye

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Geopolitical headlines will remain the primary market focus

S&P 500 Gains on Hopes for Iran Peace Talks

“Today, geopolitical headlines will remain the primary market focus and any signs that a ceasefire deal is likely to be agreed upon between the U.S. and Iran has the potential to spark a continued relief rally, extending last week’s gains in equity markets,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on April 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Pullback Update: What’s Happening, What Makes It Better/What Makes It Worse
  • Weekly Market Preview: Are there any Real Signs of De-escalation?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Jobs Report Friday (It’s a Busy Week for Data)

Futures are modestly higher in reaction to more positive commentary from President Trump on the war in Iran.

President Trump told the FT that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15 point ceasefire plan and that is boosting futures.

Away from rhetoric, the conflict escalated further over the weekend as the Houthis attacked Israel while an Iranian missile struck a Saudi air base, damaging military aircraft. The gap between rhetoric and actual events in the conflict is keeping any gains in futures modest.

Today focus will remain on the U.S./Iran war and for this early bounce to hold, we’ll need to see some events on the ground also point towards de-escalation.  Away from the war, Fed Chair Powell speaks at 10:00 a.m., so his comments have the potential to move markets.

 

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You can view our Q4 ’25 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price), please click this link, and if you’re interested in subscribing please email info@sevensreport.com.

 

Would a Ceasefire Be a Bullish Catalyst?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is a Ceasefire in Ukraine a Bullish Catalyst?
  • Oil Chart: Trend Remains Higher

Stock futures are lower with EU shares amid negative economic forecasts, a deteriorating state of Russia-Ukraine negotiations, and growing concerns about the yield curve.

Geopolitically, the Kremlin stated that the latest talks have not been “promising” and much work still needs to be done which is weighing on risk assets and bolstering oil prices this morning.

Economically, Germany cut its GDP growth forecast to just 1.8% in 2022 from 4.6% previously and an EU economic sentiment survey missed estimates.

Looking into today’s session, focus will be on jobs and growth data early with the ADP Employment Report (E: 438K) and Final Q4 GDP report (E: 7.1%) due out before the bell.

Additionally, there are two Fed speakers: Barkin (9:15 a.m. ET) and George (1:00 p.m. ET) but based on this morning’s price action, geopolitics remain the most notable influence on markets, and sentiment towards the war in Ukraine will likely be the biggest driver of markets again today.