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The key is whether the data warrants a hike

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The key is whether the data warrants a hike: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Fed Minutes Spooked the Stock Market. They Probably Shouldn’t Have.

“The key is whether the data warrants a hike and there’s virtually nothing in the day that implies a hike is needed,” Sevens Report Reserach’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “So, I think this is much ado about nothing.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 22nd, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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If Nvidia’s earnings are soft, you’ll see some weakness in tech

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If Nvidia’s earnings are soft, you’ll see some weakness in tech: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Why the Stock Market Can Rally, Even if Nvidia Earnings Disappoint

“I think if Nvidia’s earnings are soft, you’ll see some weakness in tech, especially, although I don’t think that a bad Nvidia earnings print carries with it the same danger that it would have seen in February or November,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s.

“While a bad Nvidia print will be bad for tech and probably bad for the S&P 500, because tech is such a big weight, for things like the Dow, the Russell 1000, RSP (the equal-weight S&P 500), I don’t think it’s a derailing event,” Essaye says. “I’d probably be looking to buy any dip on that.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 21st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Even after the revisions, the data was really mostly in line.

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Even after the revisions, the data was really mostly in line: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Market Is in a Trance. Wednesday’s Inflation Data Could Break It.

But Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s in a phone interview that even after the revisions, the data was really mostly in line.

“The markets could be entering an extension of the sweet spot that they were in earlier in the year,” Essaye says. “If you’re looking out, there are definitely some things you want to pay attention to, because some of this data is starting to point in a not-great direction. But it’s not necessarily a reason to sell now.”

“We were in the bullish trance, and now Powell has kind of put us back into it by saying, ‘Well, no, we’re not going to hike rates. Probably going to cut rates once or twice’ or whatever,” Essaye says. “That kind of got us back into it. So it’s going to take a hot data point.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Advisor Considerations of the “T+1” Settlement Change

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Advisor Considerations of the “T+1” Settlement Change: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Practice Management Update: Examining the Upcoming Move to T+1 Settlement
  • Long-Term S&P 500 Chart: Greatest Volatility Risk Since January 2022

Futures are flat this morning as economic data was mixed in Europe and global traders await NVDA earnings (tomorrow) to gauge the outlook for AI industry growth.

In Europe, German PPI fell -3.3% vs. (E) -3.1% underscoring that disinflation trends remain underway in the EU while the UK’s CBI Industrial Trends Order Balance dropped -33% vs. (E) -20% adding to global factory sector worries.

Looking into today’s session, there are no economic reports to watch but a handful of Fed speakers on the calendar this morning: Barkin (9:00 a.m. ET), Waller (9:00 a.m. ET), Williams (9:05 a.m. ET), Bostic (9:10 a.m. ET) and Barr (11:45 a.m. ET).

At this point, the higher-for-longer mantra has been absorbed by markets and it would take renewed talk of rate hikes to meaningfully move markets, especially as traders settle in and await tomorrow’s post-bell earnings release from NVDA which is widely viewed as the most important catalyst of this week.

Join thousands of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The key parts of the release will be one and five-year inflation expectations

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The key parts of the release will be one and five-year inflation expectations: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Dow Opens Higher, Extending Winning Streak

Aside from the Fed speakers, traders will get an update on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye writes that the key parts of the release will be one-year inflation expectations and five-year inflation expectations.

“If both of those numbers are higher than expected, it’ll be another negative signal on inflation and don’t be surprised if Treasury yields rise in response to them and stocks give back these early gains,” Essaye writes.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 10th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

There are only really three important weeks of earnings season

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There are only really three important weeks of earnings season: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Dow, S&P 500 Tick Higher

“There are only really three important weeks of earnings season, and Disney comes the week after it,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “It sort of puts a bow on earnings season, but it’s not like Disney is really that representative of the broader economy.”

“The global market has convinced themselves that that the [European Central Bank] and the BOE are going to cut in June,” Essaye says. “And if the Bank of England pushes back on that, I think could be a little bit of a negative surprise.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 7th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Things aren’t as bad as people were afraid of

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Things aren’t as bad as people were afraid of: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

S&P 500 Holds Above Its 50-Day Moving Average

“The bottom line is that things aren’t as bad as people were afraid of about 10 days ago, and now the market is rallying, now it’s making some technical progress getting back above the 50, and that’s just going to create more chasing, more fear of missing out,” Essaye says. “And I think that’s really what’s helping the market these last couple of days.”

“Until something happens to kind of break this little conversation that investors are having with each other where they’re convincing themselves of these things, the market can rally,” Essaye says. “And there’s not a ton on the calendar this week to break that idea.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 7th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Markets have held up well to a dramatic reduction in rate-cut estimates

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Markets have held up well to a dramatic reduction in rate-cut estimates: Tom Essaye, Sevens Report Editor, Quoted in MarketWatch on MSN

This is the big question markets have for Fed’s Jerome Powell, BlackRock says

“Since the start of the year, markets have held up well to a dramatic reduction in rate-cut estimates,” Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, said in a note on Tuesday. “Remember, in January the market expected six rate cuts starting in March.”

Stocks and bonds haven’t been hit harder by the recent shift in those expectations because “the market still expects the next move from the Fed to be a cut,” Essaye said. A reiteration of that message by Powell on Wednesday could help stop the S&P 500’s recent slide, he said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published by MSN on May 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Earnings in those tech companies are really important

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Earnings in those tech companies are really important: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Mixed Ahead of Fed Decision

“Bottom line, there are a lot of potential catalysts for markets today but the key to stocks stabilizing will be economic data that contradicts recent signs of stagflation emerging in the economy and a benign Fed day with an as-expected dovish announcement and no surprises from Chair Powell,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “Otherwise, we could easily see a test or breakdown through the April lows in the S&P 500 today.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Earnings in those tech companies are really important

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Earnings in those tech companies are really important: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Magnificent Seven Stocks Largely Dip Before Amazon Earnings Release

“I can tell you with a lot of confidence that if Google [parent Alphabet] and Microsoft did not post strong earnings last week, we would be below 5000 in the S&P 500 because, really, nothing else was that positive,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “Earnings in those tech companies are really important. And if you see Amazon whiff and you see Apple whiff, that’s just going to add to the negativity.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on April 30th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.