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I expect the rest of the week to be very quiet

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I expect the rest of the week to be very quiet: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

S&P 500, Nasdaq Hit New Records

“It essentially will kind of kill the week, to be honest, because anybody that can take Thursday and Friday off just got basically almost a week off,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s. “There will be plenty of people who will do that. So I expect the rest of the week to be very quiet.”

A wave of Federal Reserve speakers did little to shift the market. Investors know that interest rate cuts will depend on the data in the coming months. Essaye says it will take a surprise from economic data such as jobless claims to wake up the market this week.

“There’s really quite a confluence of data that’s starting to point to some labor market easing. In everyone’s concern that the economy is going to slow, that’s been the missing piece,” Essaye says.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 19th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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These are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market

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These are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market: Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

Oil futures end higher as demand prospects improve

“Price-supportive OPEC+ rhetoric, evidence of strong domestic demand at the start of the U.S. summer driving season, rising geopolitical tensions overseas, and renewed hopes for a perfectly executed soft landing by the [Federal Reserve] are all contributing to the recent rebound in the oil market,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“Sentiment is fragile, however, and if we see any headlines that contradict any of those factors that have supported the latest rally, or even just an uptick in broad market volatility into the end of the quarter, we could see oil markets correct back towards the mid-$70-a-barrel range,” he told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on June 18th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth

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Investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Market Had Another Great Week—but Trouble Still Lurks

In fact, investors might be getting a little more nervous around growth, wrote Sevens Report President Tom Essaye on Friday.

“To be clear, I’m not saying a slowdown is upon us and I’m not saying that the economic expansion is ending. Growth is still solid. What I am saying is that the market calculus…may be changing a bit at the margin,” Essaye wrote.

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report

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The consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Open Lower. S&P 500 and Nasdaq Pull Back From Record Highs.

“But, more important than the consumer sentiment reading will be the inflation data in that report,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “Markets will want to see stable consumer sentiment and better than expected inflation readings to rally.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 14th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Investors are taking a bit off the top with markets hovering near all-time highs.

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Investors are taking a bit off the top: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

2 Big Reasons Why the Dow and S&P 500 Are Down

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that he thinks investors are taking a bit off the top with markets hovering near all-time highs.

“I think that markets are, especially at these levels, a bit nervous that perhaps growth is stronger than they think, and maybe inflation is just a touch stickier than they think following the jobs report,” he said in a phone interview.

Essaye thinks that it would take a very hot inflation report, one that spooks even the generally dovish Powell, to send stocks falling fast on Wednesday.

“If that starts to percolate, that’s a substantial change, because now they may hike again,” Essaye said. “And that would cause volatility. I think the chances of that happening tomorrow are extremely slim, unless CPI is just a total shock.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 11th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Is Disinflation Still Good for Markets? (The Answer May Surprise You)

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Is Disinflation Still Good for Markets? Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Disinflation Still Good for Markets? (The Answer May Surprise You)
  • Weekly Market Preview:  Are Hard Landing Chances Rising?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  A holiday-shortened week, but still one with important growth updates.

Futures are slightly lower on mixed Chinese economic data and following a quiet summer weekend of news.

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (4.0% vs. (E) 4.2%) and Industrial Production (5.6% vs. (E) 6.2%) both missed estimates while Retail Sales beat (3.7% vs. (E) 3.0%) leaving the outlook for Chinese growth still mixed (at best).

There were no notable political or geo-political updates over the weekend.

The focus of the data this week will be on economic growth and today we get the first look as June activity via the June Empire Manufacturing Index (E: -12.50).  Given recent worries about growth, the stronger this number, the better for the broader markets.

We also have three Fed speakers today, Williams (12:00 p.m. ET), Harker (1:0 p.m. ET) and Cook (11:00 p.m. ET) but again, given last week’s Fed meeting, they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, markets are closed on Wednesday for observance of Juneteenth (this is a recently new Federal holiday so I just want to make sure everyone was aware of the closure).

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Recent data have traders worried that the economy is slowing

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Recent data have traders worried that the economy is slowing: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Stocks Are Slipping. The Market Can’t Find Middle Ground.

Recent data have traders worried that the economy is slowing more than people think, Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye tells Barron’s. He notes that if the economy slows too much, the question becomes whether rate cuts in September and December would be enough to turn things around.

“The market can’t ever find the middle,” Essaye says.

He says that sentiment has bounced back and forth between worries about hot inflation to worries that the Federal Reserve won’t be able to navigate a slowing economy. Essaye thinks the pullback in stocks can be chalked up to already-high valuations.

“It’s not that things have suddenly turned bad,” says Essaye. “It’s that we’re priced for a very still-perfect environment, and the data is implying it’s maybe not so perfect.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 5th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The data is starting to show a potential soft landing

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The data is starting to show a potential soft landing: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

Only Two S&P 500 Sectors Are Rising

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s the data is starting to show a potential soft landing, though where it goes from here is anyone’s guess.

“A soft landing was always a slowing of growth that sort of didn’t get too bad,” Essaye says. “So it appears we are kind of arriving at that point. Now, the issue is that every hard landing started with a soft landing. You don’t just jump from growth to contraction.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 5th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown

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My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Stock Market Needs a Strong Economy to Keep Rising. The Data Are Getting Worse.

“My biggest concern for this market remains that we get an unexpected economic slowdown because that’s one of the few events that can legitimately cause a material correction in stocks,” writes Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, noting that his worry ticked up last week due to corporate earnings.

However, Essaye warns, it doesn’t always work so neatly. “Twice in my career I have seen investors cheer a slowdown, and both times the Fed was not able to cut rates at the right time to prevent the slowing from becoming a broader economic contraction,” he wrote. “That doesn’t mean they can’t do it this time, but catching a falling knife doesn’t work in real life, it doesn’t work in stock trading, and I’ve never seen it work in monetary policy.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on June 4th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The market just seems like it can’t find the middle

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The market just seems like it can’t find the middle: Sevens Report Editor, Tom Essaye, Quoted in Barron’s

The Stock Market Keeps Going Back and Forth on Interest Rates. How to Play It.

“The market just seems like it can’t find the middle,” Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s in a phone interview.

Essaye says he can make the case that the economy is slowing, or not, based on a wide swath of data that’s available. That’s why every individual release has so much sway on the market’s day-to-day. Stocks were mixed on Tuesday, aside from tech, after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Federal Reserve hasn’t formally taken rate hikes off the table and is prepared to keep rates steady until inflation hits the central bank’s 2% target.

“This is the world we’re in for now, until economic data gives us a clear direction as to where we’re going,” Essaye says. “I think we just sort of have to brace ourselves for this kind of back and forth. I think the net result for investors is that there’s just going to be more elevated volatility.”

Also, click here to view the full Barron’s article published on May 28th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

It’ll be Very Hard for This Market to RallyIf you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.