What’s in Today’s Report:
- Will Three Fed Rate Cuts Be Enough To Save the Bull Market?
- Why Wednesday’s GDP Report is Important
- Oil Market Update
Futures are modestly lower as weak global economic data offsets good earnings from AAPL and FB.
The Chinese October manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 vs. (E) 49.8, the lowest level since January 2016. German retail sales and EU unemployment also slightly missed estimates and the takeaway is that the hoped for stabilization in the global economy isn’t happening yet.
On U.S./China trade, a Bloomberg headline hit early this morning saying a long term U.S./China trade deal is unlikely, but that’s not news as it was never expected. Instead, consensus expectations are for an ineffectual Phase One document to be signed, and then no further progress after that (the key to this whole drama remains whether there’s any tariff relief).
Today’s focus will remain on economic data as earnings begin to move towards the back burner. Key reports to watch today, in order of importance, are: Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1%, 1.7%), Employment Cost Index (E: 0.7%) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K). From a data standpoint, with the Fed now on hold, “good” economic news is good for stocks, and “bad” economic news is bad. So, the bulls are looking for good news for the remainder of the week.