A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

Futures are little changed in quiet trading following the Christmas holiday, as most European markets are closed for St. Steven’s Day.

There was no notable foreign economic out overnight.

On AI, Nvidia announced a partnership with AI Groq that is being positive received by markets (and boosting AI Enthusiasm).

Today should be a quiet trading day barring any geopolitical surprises as there are no economic reports, no meaningful earnings nor any Fed speak.

Hard vs. Soft Data: A Growing Economic Disconnect

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard vs. Soft Data: A Growing Economic Disconnect
  • Durable Goods and GDP Data Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are modestly lower in thin holiday trade as this week’s market advance to fresh all time highs is digested amid mostly quiet newswires.

Economically, Taiwan Industrial Production rose 16.42% in November, up from 14.5% in October but the data is having a limited impact on markets this morning.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic release ahead of the bell: Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and markets will be looking for ongoing resilience in the labor market via a steady to lower than expected headline print to help shore up soft landing hopes.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Week and 8-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and as has been the case recently, the stronger the demand the better.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and no noteworthy earnings releases which will result in a likely quiet holiday trading session with the NYSE closing early at 1:00 p.m. ET.

 

Sevens Report: December Strength Usually Comes Late in the Month

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History shows early December choppiness often gives way to a strong year-end rally.

12/22/2025 ValuEngine Weekly Market Summary & Commentary

Seasonal reversals like the one seen this November are far from unusual, according to Sevens Report Research. Analysis from Sevens Report shows that in more than 70% of Decembers since 1950, markets have experienced a weak or choppy first half followed by stronger gains into year-end.

December remains one of the market’s most reliable months overall. The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return over the past 75 years and finished higher nearly three-quarters of the time, giving it the highest historical win rate of any month. However, Sevens notes that most of those gains typically come late.

Returns through the tenth-to-last trading day of December average just 0.1%, meaning the bulk of the month’s upside historically occurs during the final two weeks, coinciding with the Santa Claus rally. Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac confirms a similar pattern.

Given these persistent seasonal trends, Sevens Report Research continues to favor maintaining exposure to large-cap and technology stocks into the end of the year.

Also, click here to view the full article on TheGlobeAndMail.com published on December 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New ETFs for Your Watchlist (November Launches)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (November Launches)

U.S. futures are flat while overseas equity markets were little changed overnight amid mostly quiet newswires and thinning attendance ahead of the Christmas holiday with focus on the slew of U.S. economic data due out today.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight and limited market moving headlines.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will be on the long list of economic reports due to be released in the U.S., including Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.5%), Q3 GDP (E: 3.2%), Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 91.9), and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -7.0).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on investors’ outlook for Fed policy (the stronger the demand, the better).

Bottom line, with thinning attendance and light volumes given the holiday trading week, markets are likely to remain quiet today, however, if economic data meaningfully misses expectations and weighs on growth expectations, a decent pullback could easily occur.

 

Sevens Report Q4 ’25 Quarterly Letter Coming Next Friday  

It was another strong year for stocks, but it will be a different environment as we start 2026 with 1) Concerns about an AI bubble rising, 2) The Fed rate-cutting cycle potentially ending and 3) The unemployment rate hitting a multi-year high.

Those are factors that could make 2026 more volatile than expected and we will address those risks (and celebrate 2025’s strong performance) in the upcoming Q4 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter).

The letter will be delivered to subscribers next Friday, January 2nd. 

The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter is a turnkey client communications solution. We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis and
  • Strengthen client relationships with little-to-no work from you!

You can view our Q3 ’25 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price), please click this link and if you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

 

Sevens Report: AI Trade to Split as Winners and Losers Emerge

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Tom Essaye tells Yahoo Finance the next phase of the AI trade will show sharp performance separation within the Mag 7, with Alphabet his top pick.

Breaking out the ‘selective scalpel’: Wall Street sees AI stock trade as intact

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye told Yahoo Finance he expects to see winners and losers within the group heading into next year.

“I think we’re going to see some pretty massive bifurcation,” Essaye said.” The next evolution of this trade, where there are going to be winners and losers within the Mag 7.”

He said that his favorite stock is Alphabet because of the growth prospects for Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence product.

“I think companies like Oracle that are not overextended financially, but are sort of raising eyebrows with a lot of the spending that AI, I think that companies like that could struggle,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Can the Market Rally Without AI and a Dovish Fed?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Market Rally Without AI and a Dovish Fed?
  • Weekly  Market Preview: Santa Rally On?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Insight on Growth

Futures are marginally higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rally and following a quiet weekend of news, as AI linked tech stocks continued to rebound.

Both gold and silver hit new all-time highs on rising geopolitical tensions as U.S. forces boarded another oil tanker bound for Venezuela, further increasing tensions.

Economically, the only notable report overnight was United Kingdom Q3 GDP, which met expectations rising 0.1% q/q and 1.3% y/y.

Market and economic calendars are mostly quiet this week and that includes today as there are no notable economic reports or Fed speakers.  That said, geo-politics remains a potential market mover this week, if we see a further increase in tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.

 

S&P 500 Rises After BOJ Hike Seen as ‘No Worse Than Feared’

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Tom Essaye says the BOJ’s rate hike eased investor worries, helping tech lead gains.

S&P 500 Notches Weekly Gain as Tech Stocks Lead Rally

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to their highest level in 30 years overnight. The move was “no worse than feared” and helped push equities markets modestly higher, Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye wrote Friday morning.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on December 19th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

MMT Chart (December Edition)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Chart (December Edition)

Futures are modestly higher on momentum from Thursday’s rally and as the BOJ rate decision was no worse than feared

The Bank of Japan hiked rates by 25 bps, as expected, but gave no indication when rates might rise again and the yen weakened 1% vs. the dollar.

Today focus will remain on economic data via another important inflation report, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and some growth data: Existing Home Sales (E: 4.15 million), Consumer Sentiment (E: 53.4).

The best outcome for stocks remains that the data generally hits expectations and it’s not so good it encourages the hawks to push back on further rate cuts, nor so weak it raises growth concerns.  Most of the data we’ve received this week (and really the last few weeks) has been that way and Goldilocks data is absolutely helping support this market.

 

Sevens Report: December Stock Gains Come From Late-Month Strength

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Seasonality favors the back half of December more than early trading.

This chart suggests Santa rallies typically pick up late in December

A new Sevens Report analysis highlights that December’s strong historical returns in the S&P 500 are overwhelmingly concentrated in the final two weeks of the month—not the first. Citing Ryan Detrick’s 75-year data, December has delivered a 1.4% average gain with a 73% win rate, making it the strongest month of the year.

Sevens noted the front half is usually choppy, and this year is no exception, with the S&P 500 slightly negative through mid-month. The report credits lighter volumes, fund positioning, year-end flows, and anticipation of the Santa Claus rally for late-month strength.

Still, Sevens warned the trend isn’t guaranteed and should be viewed as a helpful tendency—not a certainty.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on December 17th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

December Market Multiple Table – Deterioration Across Market Influences

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • December Market Multiple Table – Deterioration Across Market Influences

Futures are seeing a solid rebound thanks to strong tech earnings and positive AI news.

Micron (MU) beat earnings estimates (stock up 11% pre-open) and, more importantly, gave robust guidance and that’s helping to reinforce AI Enthusiasm and lift tech and the entire market this morning.

Today will be a busy day of central bank decisions and economic data.  The most important economic report today is CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y), followed by Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and Philly Fed  (E: 2.2).  CPI needs to come in at or under expectations to push back on the hawkish Fed narrative and help support stocks.  Other economic data, meanwhile, needs to stay solidly positive to imply stable economic activity.

On the central bank front, we get a BOE Rate Decision (E: 25 bps cut) and ECB Rate Decision (E: No change) and as long as there are no hawkish surprises from either, they shouldn’t move markets.

Finally, on the earnings front, some reports we’re watching today include:  ACN ($3.74), KMX ($0.32), DRI ($2.09), NKE ($0.37), FDX ($4.05), KBH ($1.79).