Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey Calls It A Measurable Warning Signal

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Frequent Intense Market Fluctuations Mark 2026

Sevens Report’s Tyler Richey calls the dispersion a measurable warning signal.

Analysts disagree about what this actually means. Tyler Richey from Sevens Report Technicals calls it a “measurable market warning signal.” He points out that prior instances are “all associated with periods of elevated broad market volatility, lasting market tops beginning to be established.”

Also, click here to view the full article on Briefs Finance published on July 27th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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More Important for Markets: Situational Awareness or the 10 Year Treasury Yield?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s More Important for Markets: Situational Awareness or the 10 Year Treasury Yield?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Economic Data and Falling Geopolitical Tensions Push Yields Lower?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The “Big Three” Monthly Reports this Week.

Futures are modestly higher on a drop in oil prices as President Trump announced over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran were again close to a ceasefire agreement.

On Saturday President Trump called off the threatened strikes on Iran, citing progress towards a ceasefire and oil is down 5% on the news.

Economically, EU and UK manufacturing PMIs generally met expectations and were both above 50 (51.9).

Today focus will be on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 54.0) and, like all reports this week, investors will want to see a Goldilocks reading of 1) Solid headline growth (so comfortably above 50) and 2) Stability in the price index (so no big jump).

On earnings, the peak of the Q2 season has passed but there are still important reports to watch.  Notable earnings today include: MAR ($3.06), PLTR ($0.28) and ON ($0.72).

 

Tom Essaye Described The Central Banker As “A Very Glib Man”

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Review & Preview: Warsh’s Credibility

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told me it felt like Warsh was lecturing market participants about his plans to dial back communication and reshape the central bank. Essaye described the central banker as “a very glib man.”

“I’m not saying that he’s not going to be the greatest Fed chair in the world—maybe he will be—but you’ve introduced a radical change to one of the most important parts of the market,” Essaye said. “It’s not a game. People are trying to not lose money. And we’re trying to manage where interest rates are going, so it just seems to me like a very radical communication alteration.”

Essaye adds that Warsh “lost a little bit of inflation credibility” from the bond market, where some traders are concerned that rising inflation caused by the Iran war could be challenging for the central bank to navigate. Odds of a hike were north of 30% just 20 minutes before the Fed released its decision, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on July 29th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Situational Awareness News Could Be Positive for Tech/the Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Situational Awareness News Could Be Positive for Tech/the Market

Futures are solidly higher, led by tech, as strong Amazon earnings help extend yesterday’s sharp rebound in technology stocks.

Geopolitically, Iran launched new attacks on U.S. assets in Kuwait and Bahrain, pushing oil prices slightly higher as tensions remain elevated.

Economically, Eurozone HICP (CPI equivalent) met expectations at 2.9% y/y while South Korea’s KOSPI surged 17.9%, its best day on record.

Today, there are two notable economic reports to watch including Chicago PMI (E: 55.0) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 54.2). There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today.

Finally, several notable earnings reports include XOM ($3.80), ABBV ($3.64), CVX ($5.80), AN ($5.43), ETN ($3.08), and D ($0.73).

Markets will be looking for stable economic data and another round of solid earnings to help extend the rebound in stocks.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s on July 28th, 2026

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Dow Rises, But Nasdaq Drops on Global Chip Selloff

“A heavy selloff in Asian chipmakers, including in a ~10% drop in the South Korean KOPSI index, is dragging broader equity markets lower amid valuation and capex worries,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye. “Today, focus is likely to be on whether the pre-market selloff in tech stocks accelerates or stabilizes as trading gets underway on Wall Street.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on July 28th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why Stocks Dropped/What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped/What the Fed Decision Means for Markets

Futures are bouncing modestly on solid MSFT earnings and on a slight decline in oil prices.

Microsoft posted strong earnings and guidance (MSFT up 10% pre-market) and that’s helping to stabilize broader tech this morning.

Geopolitically, the U.S. struck Iran overnight but didn’t signal dramatic escalation so oil prices are down 1%.

Today is another busy day in the market with potentially important updates from economic data, geopolitics and earnings.

Economically, the key report is the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y) and if that’s a “hot” number we’ll see yields rise further and pressure stocks.  Other notable economic data today includes Advanced Q2 GDP (E: 2.3%) and Jobless Claims (E: 205K),.

On earnings, we get two more major tech names reporting via AAPL ($1.88) and AMZN ($1.82) while MA ($4.77) will give us insight into consumer spending.  Across the board, the better the earnings, the better for markets.

Finally, on geopolitics, any hint of ceasefire progress should pressure oil prices which would be a general positive for markets.

 

Today’s Alpha Webinar: Updating the Bullish/Bearish Setup for this Market

Markets are at an important inflection point. AI leadership is being questioned, the Fed’s path into 2026 remains uncertain, inflation data continues to surprise, and earnings season is testing investor confidence.

The key question is whether this recent pullback is simply a healthy pause within an ongoing bull market or the beginning of a more meaningful shift in trend.

In this afternoon’s Alpha webinar (1:30 p.m. ET), we’ll connect these developments into a clear bullish and bearish framework, explain what we’re watching most closely, and discuss the implications for portfolio positioning and client conversations.

If you’re looking for a deeper analysis beyond the daily Sevens Report—including actionable investment ideas, client-ready slide decks, and timely thematic research—click below to learn more about Alpha and join us live this afternoon.

Sevens Report Alpha Webinar

 

Why are Real Interest Rates Hitting Multi-Year Highs?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why are Real Interest Rates Hitting Multi-Year Highs?

Futures are slightly higher despite negative geopolitical and AI related earnings news overnight.

Iran launched a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces in Jordan threatening current ceasefire progress (oil is up 5% on the news).

SK Hynix earnings missed expectations and the stock dropped 8%, although the “rest” of tech was solid.

Today should be a busy day full of potential market moving catalysts, starting with the FOMC Decision, where no change is expected but a hike is possible.  Geopolitically, ceasefire progress is in jeopardy given Iran’s surprise attack but, for now, markets remain optimistic it won’t be derailed (oil is only up 5% and it’d be higher if markets feared escalation).

Finally, on earnings, two of the hyperscalers report this afternoon, MSFT ($4.21) and META ($7.13) and markets will want to see strong revenue growth and controlled cap-ex increases.

 

FOMC Preview: How Likely is a Rate Hike?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview: How Likely Is a Rate Hike?
  • The Real Reason Oil Plunged on Monday

Futures are modestly lower following a quiet night of news as markets digest recent tech volatility ahead of earnings while oil fell further on U.S./Iran ceasefire optimism.

Oil prices declined another 2% overnight on more positive ceasefire commentary from Washington.

Today economic data centers on housing via the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 0.0%) and FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.0%) and since they can be big influences on inflation stats (especially CPI), better than expected numbers will be a mild positive.  We also get Consumer Confidence (E: 92.3) but that shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, the key tech reports start tomorrow but some reports we’re watching today include: PYPL ($1.28), BA ($-0.34), KO ($0.92), UPS ($1.65), DINO ($4.39), V ($3.23), STX ($4.89) and ENPH ($0.16).

 

Tom Essaye | Investors Will Be Looking For Goldilocks Data

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Dow Opens Higher, but Heads for Third-Straight Weekly Decline

“There are no Fed speakers or Treasury auctions today so investors will be looking for Goldilocks data (resilient, steady growth and cooling inflation trends) and easing geopolitical tensions in order for this morning’s rebound to hold,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on July 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Ranking the Market’s Five Biggest Problems

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Ranking the Market’s Five Biggest “Problems”
  • Weekly Market Preview: Fed in Focus as Mega-Cap Earnings Continue
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Durable Goods to Shed Light on Business Spending

U.S. futures are tracking global equities higher as part of a broad “risk-on/war-off” move with oil down ~7%, and bond yields lower by 3-5 bp across the curve after the U.S. and Iran halted military strikes amid fresh prospects for a new ceasefire deal.

Economically, the July German Ifo Survey was net positive as Current Conditions came in solid at 86.5 vs. (E) 84.4 which added to the positive sentiment to start the week.

Today we will get one of the more important economic data points of the week via the release of June Durable Goods Orders report (E: 1.6%). Investors will be looking for a healthy, but not “too-hot” release as too strong of a print could put renewed upward pressure on yields.

There are no Fed speakers today with the July FOMC meeting getting underway tomorrow, however, there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move the bond market and impact equities.

Finally, Q2 earnings season remains in full swing with quarterly results due out from AZN ($2.50), BKR ($0.51), APLD ($-0.20), NVTS ($-0.04), NUE ($4.57), and UHS ($5.66) before the bulk of the remaining Mag-7 earnings reports are due out later this week.

 

Appearing Today on Barron’s Live at Noon ET.

I’m honored to be appearing on Barron’s Live today at noon ET with Barron’s Editor-in-Chief Ben Levisohn and Senior Managing Editor Lauren Rublin.

We’ll be discussing AI, the Iran war, oil prices, rising bond yields, and other market matters!

Click this link to register and listen live!