Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Today’s CPI Is So Important (Hint: 50, 25, 0)
  • Gold Chart: Fragile Record Highs

Futures are flat as traders look ahead to today’s all-important CPI report.

Economically, the U.K.’s Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.7%, as expected, while the German ZEW Survey missed estimates, but the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.3 vs. (E) 98.9 from 98.6 in June.

Today, market focus will be almost exclusively on inflation data before the bell with CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.0% y/y) due out at 8:30 a.m. ET.

After the open, there are two Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barkin (10:00 a.m. ET) and Schmid (10:30 a.m. ET), and any comments or insights they may offer in reaction to the CPI data could move markets.

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there are a handful of companies due to report quarterly results today which could move markets, including: CAH ($2.03), SE ($0.72), RGTI ($-0.05), HRB ($2.81), CRCL ($-1.29), and ETOR ($0.49).

 

Tom Essaye Warns AI-Driven Stock Surge Shows Classic Bubble Traits

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Sevens Report founder sees parallels with past late-cycle manias

US Stocks Drop as Investors Wait on CPI Data to Set Fed’s Path

The current equity rally may be entering bubble territory, according to Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, who advises some of Wall Street’s largest firms. Essaye points to weakening U.S. economic conditions alongside stretched valuations, with the S&P 500 up 28% since April and 57% since ChatGPT’s debut in November 2022.

In an August 1 client note, Essaye compared today’s AI-fueled rally to past bubbles, such as the internet and real estate booms, where a single narrative drove expectations of “unlimited earnings growth” across sectors. He warns that the AI theme now plays that role, creating risks for advisors managing long-term portfolios.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on The Wealth Advisor published on August 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye Flags Bubble Risk in AI-Driven Rally

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Semiconductor weakness signals possible cracks in AI trade

AI-Driven Market Rally Raises Bubble Concerns: Strategist Warns of Potential Warning Signs

Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report warns that the AI-fueled stock market rally may be unsustainable, as semiconductor stocks lag the broader market.

While the S&P 500 is up nearly 14% since July 2024, the PHLX Semiconductor Index has barely broken even, raising questions about the rally’s foundation. Essaye also notes slowing U.S. job growth and rising jobless claims, cautioning that bubbles often burst in late economic cycles — with a recession posing a major risk to AI-driven gains.

Also, click here to view the full article published in AInvest.com on August 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

SPX: Three Key Market Drivers Right Now Says Essaye

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Economic growth overtakes tariffs as top market influence

SPX: Today’s Three Most Important Stock Market Drivers

Stocks rallied Monday after last week’s sharp pullback, but Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report says fundamentals have slightly worsened since July.

Economic growth is now the primary driver of markets, with recession fears posing sharp downside risk regardless of Fed rate cuts. Fed policy ranks second, as investors look for confirmation of a likely September cut. Tariffs, once the dominant factor, now rank third, with rates expected to settle between 15%-20%, raising stagflation risks but adding some trade stability.

Also, click here to view the full article published in the MoneyShow on August 6th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Watch These Gold Levels as Bulls Target New Highs

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Watch These Support and Resistance Levels as Gold Eyes New Highs

Gold’s bullish primary trend, intact since late November 2023, remains in place after record June highs, though momentum is fading. Tom Essaye of Sevens Report says bulls’ key threshold is $3,450, with resistance at $3,444, $3,473, and $3,510, and support at $3,328, $3,284, and $3,181.

Mid-morning Treasury volatility Wednesday briefly pushed gold to session highs before prices settled flat, just under near-term resistance. The $3,325 level is critical support in the short term.

Also, click here to view the full article published in the Moneyshow on August 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Influence of 0DTE Options Seen in Thursday’s Market Moves

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‘Influence of 0DTE options was apparent’ in Thursday’s market action: Sevens Report

Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye said the “influence of 0DTE options on intraday price action was apparent” Thursday, possibly explaining why the S&P 500 trimmed earlier losses by the close.

Trading in these ultra-short-dated index options has surged this summer, making them an increasingly significant force in daily market swings.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on August 8th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye warns the AI-stock index is flashing bubble risk

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The AI trade could be inflating a late-cycle stock market bubble, warns Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research.

‘This bull market in equities has a serious problem’: Strategist warns a crucial AI-stock index is sending a potential bubble signal

In an August 1 client note, Essaye wrote that “every bubble in modern market history has been based on a narrative”—and today, that narrative is AI. But to measure the health of the AI trade, he points to the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX), not just Nvidia.

Semiconductors are the “lifeblood” of AI, yet SOX remains below its July 2024 highs while the S&P 500 has climbed nearly 14% in the same period. That lagging performance, Essaye says, is a meaningful divergence:

“If AI remains the primary source of bullish optimism… this market is in trouble and at risk of rolling over sooner than later.”

He cautions that if SOX begins a material selloff, the S&P 500 likely won’t be far behind.

Adding to the risk: weaker recent payrolls, rising continuing jobless claims, and stretched valuations after an ~85% rally from the October 2022 lows.

“It is critical to keep close tabs on economic data right now,” Essaye stressed in an August 8 note, warning the broader market remains vulnerable to considerable downside if economic resilience falters.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Business Insider on August 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • August Bitcoin/Crypto Industry Update and Outlook
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More Clarity Coming on Geo-politics, Trade and Inflation?  (If so, it’d be Positive for Stocks)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Inflation and Growth Updates via CPI and Retail Sales

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

News flow was minimal over the weekend but investors are looking forward to another important week for geo-politics (Russia/Ukraine ceasefire?), trade (China tariff extension?) and stagflation (CPI and Retail Sales).

Economically, the only notable number overnight was Italian CPI, which met expectations (0.4% m/m, 1.7% y/y).

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on geopolitics and trade.  Any headlines that hint at a ceasefire in Ukraine and/or confirm an extension of current Chinese tariff rates will be a mild tailwind on stocks.

 

AI Bubble Watch: Part 2

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • AI Bubble Watch: Part 2

Futures are slightly higher following more mixed trade news.

Japanese stocks rallied after an announcement that the U.S. would “fix” an issue of tariff stacking that would result in some tariff reduction.

On gold, the U.S. may apply tariffs to Swiss gold imports, possibly disrupting to global physical gold trade.

Economically, there were no notable reports overnight.

There are no notable economic reports today but there are two Fed speakers, Musalem (10:20 a.m. ET) and Bowman, and if they join the growing “dovish” camp and hint at a September rate cut, that should help support markets.

 

Tom Essaye Named to MoneyShow’s List of Top Market Experts

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Sevens Report founder recognized for clear, trusted market insight

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, has been named to the MoneyShow’s prestigious list of market experts. Known for his plain-English, no-hype financial commentary, Essaye joins a lineup of elite analysts and thought leaders selected for their accuracy, transparency, and impact.

Essaye launched the Sevens Report in 2012 with a goal of helping financial professionals cut through the noise and make better decisions faster. Since then, the firm has expanded to include a range of products:
• Sevens Report Alpha – investment-focused insights
• Sevens Report Technicals – chart-based market analysis
• Sevens Report Quarterly Letter – client communication solutions

A regular guest on CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox Business, and Yahoo Finance, Essaye is also frequently quoted in top financial publications including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Morningstar, and Bloomberg. He holds degrees from Vanderbilt University and the University of Florida.

This recognition from MoneyShow cements his position as a go-to source for market analysis that’s clear, actionable, and trusted by professionals.

Also, click here to view the full article published in moneyshow.com. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.