What the Fed Rate Cut Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Fed Rate Cut Means for Markets (A Vote for the Run Hot Economy)

Futures are moderately higher following a mostly quiet night of news as investors digest Wednesday’s rate cut and the prospect of even lower rates in the future.

Economic data underwhelmed overnight as Japanese Machine Orders dropped (–4.6% vs. (E) -3.5%) while Australian employment fell –5,400 vs. (E) 22k.

Today we get a rate decision from the Bank of England (no change is expected) and some notable economic reports: Jobless Claims (E: 246K), Philly Fed (E: 3.0) and Leading Indicators (E: -0.1%).  With the Fed now cutting rates, stable and solid economic data is needed to support a further rally in stocks.  If economic data begins to roll over, however, that will be a new negative for markets because it’ll imply the Fed waited too long to begin to cut.

On the earnings front, some notable reports include:  DRI ($1.99), FDX ($3.65), LEN ($2.12).

 

Sevens Report Weighs on AI Trade as Alphabet Hits $3 Trillion Milestone

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Essaye flags next Big Tech contender for record valuation

Google hits $3T market cap. This Big Tech name could be next.

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid to discuss the Google parent company’s recent gains and what it signals about the artificial intelligence (AI) trade. He also shares another Big Tech name that he thinks could be the next to hit $3 trillion.

Also, click here to view the full video on Yahoo Finance published on September 16th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What Would a “Run Hot Economy” Mean for Markets?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Would a “Run Hot” Economy Mean for Markets?
  • Retail Sales Data Takeaways – Consumer Resilience Persists

Futures are slightly lower ahead of the Fed decision after the Chinese government ordered tech companies to halt purchases of all AI chips from NVDA (-1.5% pre-market).

Economically, Eurozone Core HICP (CPI equivalent) held steady at 2.3% in August, meeting expectations which is helping tamp down worries about a potential resurgence in global inflation pressures.

Looking into today’s session, there is one economic report due to be released this morning: Housing Starts & Permits (E: 1.37M, 1.37M), but barring a big surprise one way or another, the market reaction should be limited as the Fed decision comes into focus.

There is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could prompt a modest to moderate move in short-term Treasuries as traders attempt to gauge the near-term outlook for Fed policy ahead of the FOMC release, but again any market reaction should be limited.

The September FOMC meeting announcement will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET (E: -25 bp rate cut) followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. An as-expected or dovish meeting outcome should support new stock market highs while the biggest risk to the rally is a hawkish surprise that could make for a painful afternoon selloff in the broader equity market.

 

FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • Chart – The Threshold for “Fed Disappointment” is 75 bp by Yearend
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways

Futures are modestly higher this morning thanks to bullish momentum as traders look ahead to the Fed decision.

Economically, Eurozone Industrial Production rose 0.3% vs. (E) 0.5% while the German ZEW Survey’s Current Conditions headline fell to -76.4 vs. (E) -74, however, neither report is materially impacting markets this morning with the Fed decision looming large.

Today, there are multiple important economic reports due to be released including Retail Sales (E: 0.3%), Import & Export Prices (E: -0.2%, -0.2%), Industrial Production (E: 0.0%), Business Inventories (E: 0.2%), and the Housing Market Index (E: 33).

Additionally, there is one noteworthy earnings release to watch: FERG ($3.01), but with the September FOMC meeting getting underway it is likely that a sense of “Fed paralysis” begins to grip markets as traders position into the decision.

 

Sevens Report: 10-Year Yield Drop Below 4% Could Break ‘Bad News Is Good’ Trade

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Tom Essaye warns a fast move lower would signal economic anxiety, not relief

A sudden move below 4% on 10-year Treasury note yield could kill the ‘bad news is good’ market vibe

Lower yields can be a positive for stocks, foremost by making equities more attractive in comparison. But context matters, and a sudden drop could serve to unnerve investors who have largely continued to view negative economic news as a positive because it reinforces expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates later this month, said Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, in a note.

“The 4.00% level on the 10-year yield is important and if we move quickly through that level, it will signal more economic anxiety and that will further undercut the ‘bad-is-good’ narrative around weak data and Fed rate cuts (point being, if the 10-year yield falls quickly through 4.00% and heads lower, bad data will be bad for stocks because it’ll signal rising chances of an economic slowdown),” he wrote.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on September 9th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: ‘Bearish Wheels in Motion’ for Oil as Supply Rises, Demand Wanes

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Tyler Richey says crude risks a deeper slide with $61.50 key support level

‘Bearish wheels are in motion’ for oil after a three-session climb

Crude oil is on track for its first loss in four sessions as supply builds and demand softens, according to Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“OPEC+ is re-engaging in a fight to reclaim market share from non-member producers, while demand faces pressure from rising stagflation risks,” Richey said. He noted the dynamic is “straight out of the economic 101 textbook” and has set the “bearish wheels in motion” for crude.

On the charts, $61.50 a barrel is the key near-term support for WTI. A break below that could accelerate losses toward the $57–$58 range, Richey warned. October WTI recently traded at $62.49, down 1.9% on Thursday.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on September 11th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

September Bitcoin Update and Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • September Bitcoin Update and Outlook
  • What Yesterday’s CPI Means for Markets

Futures are slightly lower on mixed data and earnings overnight.

ADBE was the latest tech company to post earnings and the results were solid (beat on EPS and revenue and a guidance increase) but concerns about AI sapping demand for software kept gains modest (ADBE is up 3% pre-market).

Economically, data was mixed.  UK Industrial Production badly missed estimates (-1.3% vs. (E) 0.5%) while German CPI and UK Monthly GDP both met expectations.

Today the only notable economic report is University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 58.0) and focus will be on the inflation expectations.  As long as they don’t move sharply higher, it’ll cap a generally positive week for markets on the inflation front (which has been the main reason stocks are higher this week).

 

How ORCL Earnings Explain the Opportunities and Risks in AI

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How ORCL Earnings Explain the Opportunities and Risks in AI

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet night of news as investors digested the better than expected PPI report and looked ahead to today’s all-important CPI.

Economically, the only notable number was Japanese PPI which was better than expected, rising 2.7% y/y vs. (E ) 2.8% y/y.  Japanese stocks rallied 1% in response.

Today brings the highlight of the week, CPI, and expectations are as follows:  0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y.  A better-than-expected headline will solidify rate cut expectations and push back on stagflation concerns and that should be a solid market positive.  A “hot” number, however, will put three rate cuts before year-end in doubt and almost certainly pressure stocks.

Other events today include an ECB Rate Decision (E: No Changed), Jobless Claims (E: 234K) and some notable earnings reports:  KR ($1.00), ADBE ($4.21), RH ($3.20).

 

Understanding Where the “Bubble” Is in AI

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Understanding Where the “Bubble” Is in AI
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the Fed Start a New Rate Cutting Cycle?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed is Key, but There’s Important Growth Data This Week, Too

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend and despite negative tech news and economic data from China.

China declared that NVDA had broken anti-monopoly news, escalating existing tech tensions between China and the U.S. (although this move isn’t a total surprise).

Economically, Chinese data underwhelmed as Retail Sales rose 3.4% vs. (E) 3.8% while Industrial Production gained 5.2% vs. (E) 5.6%.

Focus today will be on the first economic reading of September, the Empire Manufacturing Index (4.3) and markets will want to see stability to further push back on slowdown concerns.

Market Multiple Levels: S&P 500 Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • MMT Levels S&P 500 Chart – September Update

Futures are solidly higher this morning thanks to strong tech earnings as traders await key U.S. inflation data.

ORCL shares are surging 30%+ in the pre-market as a measure of future revenue jumped $455B or 359% Y/Y in Q2 thanks to new AI-related cloud contracts.

Economically, Chinese CPI fell -0.4% vs. (E) -0.2% which is helping ease worries about a global resurgence in price pressures due to the trade war.

Today, trader focus will be on inflation data early with the August PPI report due out ahead of the bell (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.3% y/y).

After the open, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and investors will want to see ongoing signs of strong demand for Treasuries to shore up increasingly dovish Fed expectations.

Finally, earnings season continues to wind down but there is one notable company reporting quarterly results today: CHWY ($0.14).