3 Market Headwinds, 3 Indicators to Watch

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Market Problems, Three Indicators to Watch
  • Weekly Market Preview: De-escalation or Not?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Decision the Key Event

Futures are modestly higher after several tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, raising hopes the key oil route could reopen.

Rhetoric from both sides continues to downplay the chances of near-term negotiations while reports say the U.S. may form a coalition to escort ships through the Strait.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on Empire Manufacturing, Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), and the NAHB Housing Market Index (E: 37). Markets will want to see stable growth data as investors monitor oil prices.

Beyond the data, the Treasury will auction 3 & 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET while earnings today include DLTR ($2.53) and BEKE ($0.07).

 

Market Multiple Table Chart: Similarities to March 2025

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart: Similarities to March 2025

Futures are little changed as markets digest the rise in oil and as there were no material new attacks on oil infrastructure overnight.

Rhetoric from both sides (U.S. and Iran) continue to downplay the chances for a cease-fire in the near term.

Economically, EU Industrial Production missed estimates (-1.5% vs. (E) 0.5%) but that’s not moving markets.

Today focus will remain first and foremost on geo-political headlines and we can expect stocks to continue to trade inversely to the price of oil.

Beyond geopolitics, there are several notable economic reports today including, in order of importance, Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.4% m/m, 3.0% y/y), JOLTS (E: 6.75 million), Durable Goods (E: 0.5%), Final Q4 GDP (E: 1.4%) and Consumer Sentiment (E: 56.2).  If Core PCE and the growth data are better than expectations, that will help support this market.

 

 The oil market is showing signs of exhaustion says Tyler Richey

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The oil market is showing signs of exhaustion, says Tyler Richey

Oil prices end at highest since August 2022, then fall in electronic trading

The oil market is showing signs of “exhaustion in the squeezy, geopolitically fueled oil-market advance,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. West Texas Intermediate crude has climbed 41% month to date, according to Dow Jones Market Data. “That doesn’t necessarily mean more upside is out of the question,” just that the market is consolidating the unprecedented rally in U.S. oil prices since the start of March, Richey noted.

As far as the very-near-term price outlook goes, Richey said he “would push back on the idea that ‘the sky is the limit for oil prices'” for now. The most pronounced price gains have been concentrated in the spot month contracts, and that has yet to “spill over into longer-term contracts” beyond the end of 2026, he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on March 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

March Market Multiple Table: Two New Risks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • March Market Multiple Table: Two New Risks

Futures are moderately lower on higher oil prices as Iran continued attacks on tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Iran attacked additional oil tankers overnight, setting at least two tankers ablaze off Iraq and that pushed oil back above $90/bbl, which weighed on futures.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will stay on the war and put simply, the sooner hostilities abate and ships move through the Strait of Hormuz again, the better for markets.  Any progress towards that will pressure oil and boost stocks and any increased attacks on tankers will boost oil and pressure stocks.

Outside of the conflict, there are two notable economic reports today, Jobless Claims (E: 217K) and Housing Starts (E: 1.34M) and the stronger the numbers, the better as the last thing this market needs is a sudden growth scare.

Finally, earnings continue today and some important reports include: ADBE ($4.85), ULTA ($7.99), DG ($1.61) and DKS ($3.36).

 

Price volatility in oil futures remains historically extreme says Tyler Richey

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Price volatility in oil futures remains historically extreme right now said Tyler Richey

Oil futures lose more than 11%, as energy ministers consider release of emergency crude reserves

“Price volatility in oil futures remains historically extreme right now,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research. It is “safe to expect more volatility in the sessions ahead regardless of the direction, as the market has become almost entirely headline-driven with keen focus on the Middle East,” he told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Morningstar published on March 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Stagflation Risks Rising?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Stagflation Risks Rising

Futures are slightly higher as investors weigh the prospects of an emergency oil reserve release by G7 members against news that Iran attacked multiple oil tankers overnight ahead of key U.S. inflation data.

Economically, German CPI held steady at 2.0% vs. (E) 2.0% in February which is serving to ease global inflation worries.

Looking into today’s session, domestic inflation data will be in focus early with CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y) due to be released ahead of the bell. Additionally fresh insight regarding the state of the U.S. fiscal situation will be delivered in the afternoon with the release of the Treasury Statement (E: $-308.0B).

There is one Fed speaker scheduled to speak today: Bowman (8:30 a.m. ET) and investors will be looking for any signs of caution regarding rate cuts due to the still tense geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East and the subsequent impact on oil prices/inflation.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, the latter of which will be closely watched as a proxy for any shift in the growth/inflation outlook by bond investors in recent weeks.

Finally, there are a few earnings releases to watch today including CPB ($0.57), PATH ($0.12), and WOOF ($-0.02), however, the market’s primary focus will remain geopolitical headlines which have proven to be meaningful intraday catalysts this week. Any signs of a sooner-than-later end to the U.S.-Iran military conflict will be well received and support a further relief rally in risk assets.

 

Will “TACO” Work This Time?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Will “TACO” Work This Time?

Futures are tracking global equities higher this morning amid optimism surrounding a sooner-than-later ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran war after President Trump hinted the conflict could end “very soon” late yesterday afternoon.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index edged down -0.5 points to 98.8 vs. (E) 99.7 in February.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic report to watch: Existing Home Sales (E: 3.88 million) while no Fed officials are scheduled to speak.

The Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 3-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, the latter of which will be closely watched as a gauge for the market’s outlook on inflation risks and future Fed policy expectations.

Finally, some late season earnings continue to trickle in with ORCL ($1.34), FNV ($1.68) and KSS ($0.85) due to report quarterly results today. ORCL, being the legacy tech behemoth that it is, will be the key report to watch as its results could either bolster, or pour cold water on, the still fragile AI-narrative this week.

The Market Remains In A Risk-Off Dynamic Says Tyler Richey

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The market remains in a risk-off dynamic

Stocks Are Falling as Oil Prices Head Higher

“The market remains in a risk-off dynamic but positioning is beginning to become stretched with any positive geopolitical news likely to spark a significant relief rally,” said Tyler Richey of The Sevens Report.

However, should the news flow not improve, Richey expects “the pain on Wall Street to continue with small-caps continuing to take the brunt of the selling pressure amid rising interest rates.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Advisor Perspectives on March 9th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Focus Will Remain On Geopolitical Headlines

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Focus today will remain on geopolitical headlines

Stocks Are Falling as Oil Prices Head Higher

“Focus today will remain on geopolitical headlines and any progress towards a cease-fire or increased transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be a positive for stocks,” writes Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on March 5th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid host Brian Sozzi to discuss the latest data.

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Tom Essaye joins Opening Bid host Brian Sozzi to discuss the latest data.

Jobs data disappointment fueled by AI displacement & more

Sevens Report founder Tom Essaye, Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Brooke DiPalma, and Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré join Opening Bid host Brian Sozzi to connect the dots on the latest data.

Everybody’s sort of making the assumption that the economy is fine, and I get it. Most of the data is showing pretty solid growth. But the reality is that we are still in a labor market that’s a bit in flux. Now, I don’t think the negative 92,000 number is necessarily exactly correct. I think that there was a strike that added 30, I think 1,000, and then the weather did have some sort of impact. But the reality is we are in a no hire, no fire labor market. and that’s fine as long as it’s stable. But if all of a sudden it can quickly go to a firing and layoff labor market, then we have an economic problem and that is exactly what we do not need given all the other headaches we have.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on March 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.