A Little-Known Way to Boost AUM: “In-Kind” Crypto Unlocks

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Little-Known Way to Boost AUM: “In-Kind” Crypto Unlocks

Futures are higher, led by tech, as oil prices continue to fall on easing supply concerns despite fresh Houthi strikes.

Oil prices are retreating as markets look past the latest strikes and focus on improving supply prospects.

Economically, German PPI rose 1.1% vs. (E) 0.6% while UK retail sales rose 0.5% m/m vs. (E) -0.2%.

Today, there are two pieces of economic data to watch including Industrial Production (E: 0.3%) and Leading Indicators (E: 0.1%), and two Fed speakers, Bowman (9:30 a.m. ET) and Schmid (11:45 a.m. ET).

Finally, today is a “Quadruple Witching” options expiration, so volumes and volatility may be higher than normal into the close.

 

Why Stocks Dropped After the Fed Decision

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Stocks Dropped After the Fed Decision

Futures are sharply higher as oil prices fall and Treasury yields retreat following yesterday’s Fed-driven selloff.

Oil prices are lower as Saudi Arabia expects to restore half of its East-West pipeline capacity within days and full flows within six weeks, easing concerns over global crude supplies.

Economically, Eurozone HICP eased to 3.2% y/y vs. (E) 3.3%, while Core HICP met estimates at 2.4%.

Today, focus will be on Jobless Claims (E: 208K) and Philly Fed (E: 32.6) for additional insight into the economy following yesterday’s Fed decision. Solid economic data without renewed pressure on yields would help extend this morning’s rebound.

Finally, Housing Starts (E: 1.315M) and Pending Home Sales (E: 0.4%) are also due. The Treasury will auction 4- & 8-Week Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and 10-Yr TIPS at 1:00 p.m. ET. There are no Fed speakers or notable earnings reports today.

 

Sevens Report Technicals: Is This a Rebound… or Another Rally Not to Trust?

Long-term Treasury yields have surged, crude oil has jumped again, and the S&P 500 is approaching an important support area. Short-term conditions are increasingly oversold, raising the odds of a rebound… but a bounce is not the same thing as a durable rally.

This week’s Sevens Report Technicals examines the evidence that would signal demand has truly returned, including breadth, leadership, momentum, and key support levels. It also looks at a growing portfolio risk: the unintended duration exposure created by rising long-term rates, which can extend well beyond bonds into rate-sensitive equities and traditionally defensive sectors.

Click here to see what the charts are telling us… and what needs to happen next.

What “Frontier” AI Slowing Means for the Market

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What “Frontier” AI Slowing Means for the Market
  • Fed Day

Futures are modestly higher on a bounce ahead of this afternoon’s Fed decision, following a quiet night of news.

Geopolitically there were no new negative headlines overnight and that lack of more bad news is prompting a mild bounce in oil (Brent crude down 1%).

Economic data was solid overnight as UK CPI met expectations (core CPI 2.6% y/y) while Euro Zone Industrial Production beat estimates (-0.1% vs. (E) -0.5% m/m).

Focus today will be on the Fed and the best case for markets is a rate hike with a “one or two hikes and done” message.  Outside of the Fed, geopolitics stay important and any positive headlines (again, even in tone) will likely cause a drop in oil/rates and help lift stocks.  Finally, we also get August Retail Sales (E: 0.7%) and markets will want to see consumer spending holding up despite growing price headlines.

 

FOMC Preview (It’s Not Just About a Rate Hike)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview (It’s Not Just About a Rate Hike)

Futures are extending Monday’s losses and are modestly lower as there were no positive headlines in the Mid-East and oil (and yields) rallied further as a result.

Brent crude is up another 1% as there was no improvement in the trifecta of concerns in the Mid-East: Hormuz traffic, Houthis seizing Yemeni coast and the continued shutdown of the Saudi East-West pipeline.

Economic data was mixed as UK unemployment slightly beat while the German ZEW Biz Expectations missed.

Today focus will remain on the Mid-East and any positive headlines (even just in tone) should pressure oil and yields and help stocks lift. However, if there are more negative headlines, expect the opposite: Higher oil, higher yields and even lower stocks.  Outside of geopolitics, we do get the first look at September economic activity via Empire Manufacturing (14.1) and the more Goldilocks the number (solid headline but stable or declining price indices) the better for markets.

 

The Biggest Reason Behind the Pullback

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Biggest Reason Behind the Pullback
  • Weekly Market Preview: Ceasefire hopes and the Fed (It’s Potentially a Critical Week)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Fed Decision on Wednesday is the Key

Futures are moderately lower on a rebound in oil prices as tensions in the Gulf worsened over the weekend.

The Gulf states/Iran meeting about Hormuz, which was the main catalyst for Friday’s rally, was postponed while the Houthis continued to seize land on the Red Sea coast and the Saudi East-West pipeline was shut due to damage.

All three events are raising concerns about the supply of oil exiting the Persian Gulf and oil is 2% higher as a result.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any Fed speakers so focus will stay on geopolitics. Any hints of progress towards a ceasefire (including scheduling meetings) will be an immediate positive, while any reports of further fighting will push oil and Treasury yields higher and stocks lower.

 

Putting New or Idle Cash to Work During Volatility Season

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting New or Idle Cash to Work During Volatility Season

Futures are higher as lower oil prices and retreating bond yields support stocks ahead of today’s CPI report.

Geopolitically, reports that Gulf states may meet with Iranian officials next week are easing concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and weighing on oil prices.

Economically, UK monthly GDP rose 0.4% vs. (E) 0.0% in July.

Today, market focus will be almost exclusively on inflation data before the bell with CPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 3.4% y/y) and Core CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.4% y/y) due out at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by Consumer Sentiment (E: 51.2).

Finally, only one notable earnings report is due today, KR ($1.05), so markets will focus primarily on economic data and geopolitics.

 

Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (September)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can AI Continue to Support This Market?
  • Monthly Bitcoin & Crypto Update (September)

Futures are mixed as investors monitor rising oil prices and ongoing Middle East tensions ahead of key inflation data.

Geopolitically, Iran-backed Houthis reported airstrikes in Yemen, adding to concerns about a broader Middle East conflict.

Economically, German Final CPI met estimates at 0.2% m/m in August.

Today, focus will be on PPI (E: 0.4% m/m, 5.3% y/y) ahead of Friday’s CPI report. A cooler PPI print would be welcomed by stocks, while a hot print could push yields and oil higher. Jobless Claims (E: 208K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 3.97M) are also due today.

Finally, the Treasury will hold 4-Week and 8-Week Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Notable earnings include ORCL ($1.40), ADBE ($4.86), and M ($0.37).

 

Alpha Webinar: When Does Rising Oil Become a Problem?

Oil prices are moving markets again, but the real question isn’t simply whether crude goes higher—it’s when rising oil becomes a meaningful problem for inflation, bond yields and stocks.

That’s the focus of today’s Sevens Report Alpha webinar, live at 1:30 p.m. ET.

We’ll examine the Strait of Hormuz and actual oil flows, alternative routes for Persian Gulf supply, why diesel markets matter, and, importantly, the oil-price levels that could signal conditions are becoming materially worse—or beginning to improve.

The goal isn’t to predict the next move in crude. It’s to give you a practical framework for understanding when oil is a manageable market risk and when it becomes a sustained headwind for stocks and bonds.

Click here to learn more and join today’s Alpha webinar.

September MMT: Headwinds Present but Earning Growth a Major Positive

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • September Market Multiple Table (MMT): Headwinds Present but Earnings Growth a Major Positive

Futures are modestly lower as the U.S. and Iran again exchanged reciprocal strikes overnight, sending oil prices higher.

Brent crude rose above $100/bbl for the first time since May after the U.S. and Iran traded strikes on oil tankers and naval vessels, further diminishing any near term hopes for ceasefire progress.

Economically, the only notable report was Chinese CPI which beat expectations (0.8% y/y vs. (E) 0.4% y/y).

Today there are no notable economic reports (the key reports this week come Thursday/Friday via PPI/CPI) so focus will stay on geopolitics and the story remains the same:  Any hint of the U.S. or Iran seeking a ceasefire will push oil lower and help stocks rebound, while more reciprocal strikes will only further boost oil prices and pressure stocks.

Beyond oil, we need to watch treasury yields.  So far this week they haven’t rallied despite higher oil prices (the looming CPI is likely keeping them stable) but if that changes and yields start to rise on higher oil prices, the downward pressure on stocks will increase.

 

Tom Essaye Quoted In NDTV On September 1st, 2026

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Wall Street Highlights: S&P 500 Slips As Oil Spike, Rising Fed Rate Bets Pressure Stocks

“Today there are no notable economic reports or Fed speak so focus will remain on geopolitics,” wrote Tom Essaye, founder of ‘The Sevens Report’ newsletter. “Markets still strongly assume there won’t be any material military escalation between Iran and the US, but if the headlines turn negative on that front, it’ll introduce a new headwind on the market.” 

Also, click here to view the full article published in NDTV on September 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Recipe for a Rally (Three Ingredients)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Recipe for a Rally (Three Ingredients)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Yields Remain Key (Geopolitics and Inflation in Focus)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: CPI (Friday) is the Key Report This Week

Futures are modestly lower on higher oil prices as geopolitical risks rose over the long weekend.

Oil prices hit multi-month highs and that’s directly weighing on global stocks as Iran launched an unsuccessful attack on a U.S. Naval vessel and the U.S. sunk three Iranian tankers in response, keeping tensions elevated and the prospect of a near term ceasefire low.

In Russia, there was no progress on a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire despite U.S./Russian meetings over the weekend.

Today there are no notable economic reports nor any major Fed speakers so focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, oil and Treasury yields.  As has been the case for the past few weeks, any headlines that push oil and yields lower will help stocks rally (and if oil and yields keep rising, stocks will continue their decline).