New ETFs for Your Watchlist (July Launches)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (July Launches)
  • Chart – Home Sales Fall Amid Elevated Prices

Futures are slightly lower on weak software company guidance ahead of key inflation data and NVDA earnings today.

INTU beat earnings and revenue estimates, but forward guidance fell short of lofty expectations which is dragging software stocks and the broader tech complex lower ahead of the bell.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.2% m/m, 3.3% y/y) due to be released before the open. Additionally, Durable Goods Orders (E: 0.5%) and Q2 GDP (E: 1.5%) will be released this morning, shedding light on the health of U.S. growth and demand metrics.

Later in the day, the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction (11:30 a.m. ET) and a 5-Yr Note auction (1:00 p.m. ET) and the Fed’s Barkin will speak leading into the lunch hour (11:45 a.m. ET).

Finally, focus will shift to one of the seasons most important earnings releases due after the close with NVDA ($2.09) results looming large. Other names reporting today include: KSS ($0.55), WSM ($2.05), CRM ($2.35), CRWD ($0.05), OKTA ($0.44), and HPQ ($0.66), but again NVDA will be the key report to watch.

 

Two Reasons Tech Dropped on Monday

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Did Tech Drop on Monday? – Two Reasons
  • Why Treasury Bond Repurchases Matter to You

Futures are higher with tech/semis leading amid fresh geopolitical optimism surrounding a NYT report that the U.S. government plans to re-staff Middle East embassies, a sign that no further military escalations with Iran are anticipated.

Economically, German data beat estimates as Q2 GDP rose 1.0% vs. (E) 0.9% and the August Ifo Survey’s headline Business Climate figure rose to 88.8 vs. (E) 87.1 which is helping fuel risk-on money flows in early trade.

Looking ahead to today’s session, there are multiple economic reports to watch including the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.8%), Consumer Confidence (E: 90.1), and New Home Sales (E: 620K). Additionally, there is one Fed official scheduled to speak today: Barkin (8:00 a.m. & 4 p.m. ET).

Finally, while earnings season is winding down, there are still a handful of notable companies due to report (NVDA’s results tomorrow will be the big release for the week). Today, DKS ($3.78), BMO ($2.71), BNS ($1.53), GFI ($1.10), INTU ($2.12), and ZM ($1.01) will all report Q2 earnings.

For this morning’s pre-market advance to hold, investors will be looking for the decline in oil and drop in yields to hold through the open as economic data to come in “Goldilocks” and Fed speak to track “less-hawkish.” If oil and/or yields rebound, equities will face a renewed, familiar set of market headwinds.

 

Three Important Events for Yields & Markets (This Week)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Three Important Events for Yields & Markets (This Week)
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Yields Decline (and Ease Pressure on Stocks)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Focus on the Fed (via Core PCE and Warsh’s speech)

Futures are slightly lower as investors digest rising trade tensions and await details of economic sanctions against Iran.

The U.S. applied a 50% tariff to Canadian imports and while exemptions will keep the actual impact small, this is negative for investor/market sentiment.

Details of new economic sanctions against Iran will be revealed this afternoon but unless they boost the chances of a ceasefire, they won’t impact markets.

Today there are no notable economic reports so focus will remain on geopolitics and the 2:00 p.m. ET reveal of the new economic sanctions against Iran.  However, unless the moves are viewed as realistically increasing the chances of a ceasefire, they shouldn’t move markets (and oil remains the key indicator to watch).

 

Does a Broader Rally Mean a Healthier Rally?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Does a Broader Rally Mean a Healthier Rally?

Futures are modestly higher following a generally quiet night of news and after economic data was better than expected.

UK and EU flash PMIs beat estimates (EU PMI rose to 52.1 vs. (E 51.6) while the UK PMI jumped to 52.5 vs. (E) 51.5) implying stable global growth.

Treasury yields are little changed overnight and the lack of a continued rally is helping futures lift.

Today focus will stay on economic data via the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 53.7) and Flash Services PMI (E: 53.8) and Goldilocks numbers (headline readings that meet or slightly beat estimates and no big increases in the price indices) should keep yields stable and help stocks rebound.

 

Needed Context for Rising Yields

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Needed Context for Rising Yields
  • What Could Push Yields Lower (Four Candidates)

Futures are little changed despite higher oil prices as President Trump threatened an “economic D-Day” for Iran.

President Trump threatened dramatic economic sanctions on countries with economic ties to Iran, increasing odds of a Iranian military response and pushing oil prices higher.

Focus today will be on yields and whether they recoup Wednesday’s losses or not.  Impacting that will be, in order of importance:  Oil prices (do they rise further than the current 2% rally) and economic data (does it come in hot or not?).

Economically, important reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 211K), Philly Fed (E: 25.0) and Leading Indicators (E: 0.1%) and the more “in-line” they are with expectations, the better (especially the Philly price indices).

Outside of economic data, there is one Fed speaker, Musalem (11:10 a.m. ET) and some notable retail earnings:  WMT ($0.73), BABA ($1.94), DE ($4.79), AAP ($0.81), ROST ($1.93).

 

The AI Trade Is Getting Bigger

AI may be one of the defining investment themes of the next decade. But that doesn’t mean today’s AI winners will remain tomorrow’s leaders.

In Tuesday’s issue of Sevens Report Alpha, we examined how investors can maintain meaningful long-term exposure to AI without making a concentrated bet on a handful of stocks. The report looks beyond the current chip and data center boom to the broader AI ecosystem, and how leadership could shift as the technology matures.

Most importantly, we outline three distinct approaches to gaining long-term AI exposure, including the trade-offs in diversification, concentration, flexibility, and cost.

If you believe AI is here to stay, follow the link below to read our most recent Alpha issue and see how I think investors can best participate.

Sevens Report Alpha

 

What Caused Yesterday’s Selloff? AI or Yields?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Caused Yesterday’s Drop, AI or Yields?
  • Three Reasons Yields Are Rising Right Now

Futures are flat as traders digest this week’s pullback in tech stocks amid stubbornly elevated oil prices and subsequently buoyant bond yields.

Economically, U.K. Core CPI held steady at 2.6% vs. (E) 2.5% y/y while the EU’s Core CPI equivalent (Core HICP) was unchanged at 2.5% y/y in July, meeting estimates; neither release suggested inflation is beginning to slow materially which is keeping yields elevated today.

There are no noteworthy economic reports today, however the Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET which could move the bond market, and a pullback in yields would be welcomed by equities today, potentially setting up a relief rally in the broader market.

Later in the afternoon, the July FOMC meeting minutes will be released (2:00 p.m. ET) and traders will be looking for any fresh insight as to the Fed’s most likely policy rate path in H2’26; the more dovish/accommodating, the better for equities.

Finally, there are a handful of late-season earnings releases due to be released today including ADI ($3.33), TGT ($2.30), TJX ($1.18), LOW ($4.22), EL ($0.32), and BULL ($0.03). And as has been the case, the stronger the results and guidance, the better for the market.

 

Is There Finally Value in Software?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is There Finally Value in Software?
  • Empire State Manufacturing Survey Takeaways.

Futures are lower with semiconductor/tech stocks leading the declines on valuations concerns as geopolitical tensions remain elevated, pushing oil and bond yields higher (the 30-Yr Bond yield is above 5.30%).

Economically, U.K. Unemployment held steady at 4.9%, meeting expectations but the release did not materially impact markets with focus on oil, geopolitics, and global bond yields sitting at multi-decade highs.

Today, there is a fair bit of economic data to watch including Industrial Production (E: 0.3%), Housing Starts (1.345M), Pending Home Sales (E: 1.4%), and Import & Export Prices (E: 0.1% m/m, 0.0% m/m). The best case scenario for equities is healthy (but not “hot”) growth data and “cooler than feared” inflation data.

There are no Fed officials speaking today which will leave bond markets focused on 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET (the stronger the demand the better).

Earnings season is winding down, however there are a handful of noteworthy companies reporting quarterly results today, including HD ($4.71), BIDU ($1.51), KEYS ($2.48), SQM ($2.03), and TOL ($2.90). As has been the case, the stronger the results/guidance, the better for stocks.

 

Four Reasons Last Week was Better than it Seemed for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Four Reasons Last Week was Better than it Seemed for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Is the Consumer Holding Up and How Hawkish Is the Fed?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: FOMC Minutes (Wed) and First Look at August Data

Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news.

Chinese economic data was soft as Industrial Production (4.5% vs. (E) 5.0%), Retail Sales (0.6% vs. (E) 1.5%) and Fixed Asset Investment (-6.7% vs. (E) -6.1%) all missed estimates.

Geopolitically, there was no progress on U.S./Iran ceasefire talks but, positively, any military escalation still remains unlikely.

Today focus will be on the economy as we get the first look at August data via the Empire Manufacturing Index (10.60) and the best case for markets is for a Goldilocks number of solid growth (so at or slightly above expectations) and, almost as importantly, a continued decline in the price indices (which shows inflation pressures are continuing to recede in August).  The other notable economic report is the Housing Market Index (E: 33) but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update & Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin and Crypto Update & Outlook

Futures are little changed following a mostly quiet night of news.

Applied Materials (AMAT) posted strong earnings but, like CSCO, they weren’t as good as hoped for and the stocks is lower pre-market (down 6%) and that is a mild headwind on futures.

Economically, the only notable number was Q2 EU flash GDP which met expectations at 0.4% q/q.

Today focus will stay on economic data via Retail Sales (E: 0.1%), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 54.2) and Five- Year Inflation Expectations: (E: 3.3%).  The “best” case for stocks is for solid (but not spectacular) retail sales and five-year inflation expectations that decline closer to 3.0%, as that will reinforce solid growth and continue this week’s trend of easing inflation pressure.

 

Tom Essaye On Why Cloud Capacity Is The Next Critical Bottleneck In AI Infrastructure

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Why Google and Amazon rank top among Cloud hyperscalers for AI

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye explains why cloud capacity is the next critical bottleneck in AI infrastructure and ranks Google (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT) based on their cloud revenue opportunities.

So, I do like the hyperscalers, but I like the ones with the best cloud businesses. So really it’s not even so much that I love the hyperscalers, it’s that I love cloud right now because I think the cloud capacity is could be number uh number for first of all, the next bottleneck that has to be resolved in this AI day to build out after semiconductors and memory. And also it it provides an opportunity to generate revenue right now. So if I had to rank them in order, it would probably be Amazon, or excuse me, Google, Amazon and then Microsoft. The reason Microsoft is last is because I do think they have some risk on their office suite given, you know, some of the the AI software purge that we’re seeing. Uh but I think those three are attractive, mainly because of their cloud business, it’s providing revenue now.

Essaye is staying cautious about the Magnificent Seven names heading into earnings. 

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on August 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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