The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’

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The scales are tipped in favor of the May-Sellers: Sevens Report Co-Editor Tyler Richey Quoted in Bloomberg

Old Wisdom of ‘Sell in May’ Back in Focus as Stock Market Churns

“The scales are tipped in favor of the ‘May-Sellers’ this year,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, adding that the risks are skewed toward the S&P 500 suffering another big decline next month.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Bloomberg published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

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The primary negative influences on copper

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The primary negative influences on copper: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in MarketWatch

Here’s what this real-time barometer says about tariff-induced recession risks rising

“Recession worries and lack of concrete progress in trade relations between the U.S. and China remain the primary negative influences on copper,” analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in Wednesday’s newsletter.

They said the “primary trend in copper is not one of higher or lower prices, but of volatility, which highlights trade-war uncertainty and an elevated sense of angst among global investors.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 30th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

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Contrarian Indicator: Sentiment & Confidence Hit Historic Lows

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Consumer and Investors Haven’t Been This Negative in Well Over a Decade (Contrarian Indicator)
  • JOLTS Takeaways – Labor Market Shows Signs of Deterioration
  • Consumer Expectations Plunge Due to Bleak Outlook

Stock futures are lower as weak tech-sector earnings offset mostly positive economic data overnight.

SMCI (-16% premarket) missed on earnings and lowered 2025 guidance which is weighing on big-tech stocks this morning, dragging the broader market lower in the pre-market.

Economically, China’s Manufacturing PMI beat estimates while Eurozone GDP was inline.

Today, there is a slew of economic data to watch early in the day including the ADP Employment Report (E: 125K), Q1 GDP (E: 0.2%), Chicago PMI (E: 45.8), Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y), and Pending Home Sales (E: 1.0%).

The Core PCE Price Index will be the key figure to watch as it is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and a hot print could add to worries about the Fed’s ability to achieve their dual-mandate with growing inflation risks and declining growth metrics in 2025.

In the afternoon, focus will shift to earnings as several mega-cap tech companies are due to report earnings after the close including: MSFT ($3.20), META ($5.22), QCOM ($2.27) as well as other non-tech companies HUM ($9.98) and CAT ($4.30).

A Wildcard to Watch: Legal Challenges to Trump’s Tariffs

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Wildcard to Watch: Legal Challenges to Trump’s Tariffs
  • The “Rest of the Market” Continues to Outperform – Chart

Stock futures are wavering between gains and losses this morning as traders digest potential tariff relief for auto imports and position into more mega-cap earnings reports.

Economically, Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Index rose to -20.6 vs. (E) -25.5, helping German markets outperform with the DAX up ~0.75% this morning.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with International Trade in Goods (E: $-142.0B), Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 4.7%), FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.3%), Consumer Confidence (E: 87.5), and JOLTS (E: 7.464 million) data all due to be released.

Earnings season also continues today with noteworthy companies reporting results including: PYPL ($1.15), UPS ($1.42), KO ($0.71), V ($2.68), and SBUX ($0.49).

There were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally

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There were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally: Sevens Report Analysts Quoted in Investing.com

Can Trump’s “Happy Talk” keep the S&P 500 above 5,500? Strategist weighs in

According to Sevens Report, “there were several legitimate reasons for last week’s rally, including (in order of importance): De-escalation of the trade war with China, de-escalation of the Trump/Powell feud, rising anticipation for the announcement of numerous trade deals, and solid Q1 earnings.”

However, Sevens Report cautioned that “none of these events are materially bullish,” and warned that while “still-negative sentiment helped the S&P 500 temporarily break through 5,500 on some good earnings or further trade de-escalation briefly, I do not think the news has turned good enough to sustain a rally.”

“Trump understands that firing Powell would hammer markets, so he (probably) won’t try it, but that doesn’t mean the negative headlines are done,” Sevens Report said.

They added, “The Fed meets next on Wednesday, May 7, and the Fed is very unlikely to cut rates at that meeting and that could draw Trump’s ire.”

On the trade front, Sevens Report noted that while tariff reductions are better than escalation, “the baseline level of tariffs will be much higher than it was in January and that will be a headwind on growth and a tailwind on inflation.”

Looking ahead, Sevens Report stated, “it is very unlikely that 2025 S&P 500 EPS expectations stay at $270,” suggesting that “a $10/share reduction to $260 (or even lower) seems more appropriate.”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on April 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How much economic damage have tariffs done?

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How much economic damage have tariffs done?: Tom Essaye Quoted in MarketWatch

Is the stock market overvalued? Investors look for ‘economic damage’ from tariffs

Investors are hoping trade deals that reduce tariffs may be announced soon, which would help inform whether the U.S. stock market is currently overvalued, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

“‘How much economic damage have tariffs done?’ is one of the most important questions for investors right now because if the answer is ‘a lot,’ then this market is still substantially overvalued,” Essaye said in a note Monday. “If the answer is ‘not too much’ and tariff reduction occurs, then the case can be made for a sustainable rally (as long as we get consistent policy).”

Also, click here to view the full article featured on MarketWatch published on April 28th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Can Trump’s “Happy Talk” Keep the S&P 500 Above 5,500?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can Trump’s “Happy Talk” Keep the S&P 500 Above 5,500?
  • Weekly Market Preview:  More Insight on Tariff Fallout (Important Earnings and Economic Data)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet:  Jobs Report on Friday and ISM Manufacturing on Thursday are Key Reports to Watch

Futures are modestly weaker following a mostly quiet weekend of news as investors await more clarity on trade deals and insights on how much damage tariffs will do to the economy.

There were no new trade headlines over the weekend (not even notable social media posts) although investors are hopeful trade deals will be announced soon, possibly this week.

Today markets should be quiet (assuming no trade surprises) as there is no notable economic data, no Fed speakers and just one notable earnings report, NXPI ($2.18).  However, don’t let the slow start fool you, as this will be a very busy week of important earnings (AMZN, AAPL, META, MSFT, V) and economic data and as the week moves on, the busier it will get.

Reading Market Volatility: If, Then.

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Reading Market Volatility:  If, Then…

Futures are little changed despite solid earnings overnight and more signs of trade war de-escalation.

GOOGL posted stronger than expected results and tech earnings broadly last night were solid, boosting the sector.

On trade, China exempted several categories of U.S. imports from 125% tariffs in a further small de-escalation of trade tensions.

Trade headlines will continue to dominate intra-day trading today but there’s also a notable economic report this morning via University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 50.8).  The key part of this report will be the inflation expectations and estimates are as follows: One Year Inflation Expectations: 6.7%, Five-Year Inflation Expectations 4.4%.  If the actual data is hotter than those estimates, it will put upward pressure on yields and could weigh on stocks.

On earnings, results so far have been better than expected and that has helped this rally.  Notable results today include: ABBV ($2.40),  CHTR ($8.53) and PSX ($-0.77).

Is Silver Set to Breakout?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Is Silver Set to Breakout?

Futures are modestly weaker on digestion of this week’s rally and on mildly disappointing trade news.

Chinese officials stated there were no ongoing trade talks with the U.S. and again called for the removal of tariffs, pushing back on the “progress” narrative of the past few days.

Focus today will be on economic data and earnings.  On the data front, the key reports today include Durable Goods (E: 1.4%), Jobless Claims (E: 220K) and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.12 million) and if this “hard” data remains solid it will push back against slowdown concerns.    There is also one Fed speaker, Kashkari (5:00 p.m. ET), but he shouldn’t move markets.

On earnings, the key reports today include GOOGL ($2.02), INTC ($-0.14) and PG ($1.54).  For GOOGL and INTC, guidance will be key while investors will wait to see the impact of tariffs on PG’s quarter.

The Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) is a simple and compelling measure

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The Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) is a simple and compelling measure: Tom Essaye Quoted in Investing.com

Are silver prices set for a breakout?

Silver may be setting up for a breakout, according to Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye, who highlights a rare divergence between gold and silver pricing that could soon correct in favor of the latter.

“The Gold-to-Silver Ratio (GSR) is a simple and compelling measure with historical significance. It tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. Today, that number is around 100:1,” Essaye said in a Thursday report.

Essaye emphasizes that silver is increasingly seen as the “people’s gold,” while also benefiting from strong industrial drivers.

Demand is growing “due to electric vehicles, which use more silver than traditional cars.” Moreover, Essaye highlights solar panels, one of the fastest-growing sources of silver demand, electronics, 5G technology, medical devices, and defense systems.

Even with these tailwinds, silver prices have yet to revisit their 2011 highs near $50. “Silver hasn’t even returned close to its all-time high of $49.95 during this current precious metals’ bull run,” Essaye said.

“Typically, it runs between 40:1 and 60:1, and it doesn’t get above 100 very often,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full article featured on Investing.com published on April 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.