What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Cheap and What’s Not at the Start of 2026
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI Takeaways
  • Chart: Copper Hits Fresh All-Time Highs

Stock futures are slightly lower this morning as the two-day gain to start 2026 is digested ahead of more U.S. economic and the all-important Consumer Electronics Show where NVDA CEO, Jensen Huang will speak at 4:00 p.m. ET.

Economically, the Final Eurozone Composite PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.5 vs. (E) 51.9 in December which mildly dented global soft landing optimism overnight.

Looking into the U.S. session, the Final U.S. Composite PMI (E: 53.0) and data on Domestic Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.7 million) are due to be released today while there is one Fed official speaking ahead of the bell: Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET).

Additionally, there is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could shed light on near-term Fed policy expectations, however it will be most important to see a Goldilocks PMI print ahead of the most widely anticipated event of the day, the Consumer Electronics Show, where NVDA’s CEO is the keynote speaker scheduled to deliver remarks just as markets close (but futures will continue to trade as he speaks).

 

Sevens Report Puts S&P 500’s Powerful 3-Year Run in Perspective

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Recent gains rank among the strongest three-year returns in market history.

Putting the S&P 500’s strong 3-year return in context

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 wrapped up a three-year stretch that saw it gain about 84%, according to Sevens Report Research.

That places it among the index’s strongest three-year returns in the history of the U.S. stock market, said Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research. To be more precise, this return ranks in the 94th percentile of three-year returns over the past 100 years.

The best three-year return for the S&P 500 during that time occurred from 1995 to 1997 — +125.6% — the second-best occurred between 1933 and 1935 — +124.1% — and the third-best occurred from 1926 to 1928 — +120.4%. In each case, the index was lower five years later.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 2nd, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Venezuela Could Impact Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Venezuela Could Impact Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Economic Data Start 2026 Goldilocks?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The Big-Three Monthly Economic Reports This Week

Futures are modestly higher despite more geopolitical volatility as the U.S. shocked the world and infiltrated Venezuela and arrested President Maduro.

Market reaction to Maduro’s arrest has been generally muted, however, including in the oil markets where oil is only slightly higher, as political change in Venezuela likely will mean more oil production, not less.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today focus will be on geo-politics (any continued fallout from the Maduro arrest) and economic data, as we get our first important economic report of 2026, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 48.4).  Stability remains the key for economic data as we start the new year, so an in-line or slightly better number will be welcomed by markets.

 

Tom Essaye: The AI Trade Could Become More Fractured

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Tom Essaye tells Yahoo Finance the AI trade could become more fractured.

AI trade will fracture into winners & losers: Top stock picks

Artificial intelligence (AI) will continue to be a key pillar of market gains in 2026, Sevens Report research founder Tom Essaye tells Market Domination host Josh Lipton.

Essaye says the AI trade could become more fractured, highlighting which AI stocks he expects to be winners and losers.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on January 1st, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Putting the S&P 500’s Strong Three-Year Run in Context

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Putting the S&P 500’s Strong Three-Year Run in Context
  • The Q4 2025 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter Will Be Delivered Today to Subscribers

Futures are starting the new year with moderate gains following more tariff reductions.

The Trump administration reduced tariffs on several import categories including pasta and furniture as the aggregate tariff burden on the economy declined further.

Economically, EU and UK Flash manufacturing PMIs both missed expectations, falling to 48.8 vs. (E) 49.2 in the EU and 50.6 vs. (E) 51.2 in the UK.

Today focus will be on economic data via the Flash Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.8) and markets will want to see a Goldilocks reading near expectations to start off the new year.  A very weak reading (close to 50) or a very strong number (above 53) would either 1) Slightly increase slowdown worries or 2) Reduce rate cut expectations, both negatives for the markets.

 

Tom Essaye Interview On Yahoo Finance To Discuss His 2026 AI Playbook

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Yahoo Finance Interview

2026 AI playbook, Intel stock up 80% in 2025

Market Domination anchor Josh Lipton breaks down the latest market moves for December 29, 2025. Artificial intelligence will continue to be a key pillar of market gains in 2026. Sevens Report research founder Tom Essaye discusses four pillars currently holding up the AI trade and why it could change in 2026. Essaye says the AI trade could become more fractured, highlighting which AI stocks he expects to be winners and losers.

Also, click here to view the full video preview published on YouTube.com on December 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Investor Sentiment Update (Not as Bullish as One Would Think)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: Not Nearly as Bullish as One Would Think
  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index – An Upside Surprise
  • December FOMC Meeting Takeaways

U.S. futures are lower along with global markets after a mostly quiet night of news as the solid 2025 stock market advance continues to be digested into year-end.

Economically, China’s CFLP Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in December from 49.5 in November vs. (E) 49.7 but the strong data print failed to generate any market enthusiasm overnight.

Today, there is one final noteworthy economic report before the end of the year: Jobless Claims (E: 218K) and investors will be looking for a Goldilocks print to shore up soft-landing expectations.

Additionally, the Treasury will hold auctions for 4-Week, 8-Week and 4-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and markets will want to see healthy demand to support dovish Fed policy expectations for 2026.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today and the bond market will close early (2:00 p.m. ET) ahead of the New Years Holiday as markets cap off another solid year of stock market returns.

 

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance To Discuss The AI Trade

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Yahoo Finance Interview

Why the AI trade could change in 2026

Artificial intelligence will continue to be a key pillar of market gains in 2026. We speak with Sevens Report research founder Tom Essaye, Epistrophy Capital Research Chief Market Strategist Cory Johnson, and TECHnalysis Research, LLC President Bob O’Donnell about the AI trade and what to expect in 2026.

Also, click here to view the full video preview published on YouTube.com on December 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Value of International Investing Revisited

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Interesting Table to Show Clients: The Value of International Diversification
  • Don’t Dismiss Tax-Loss Harvesting This Year

Stock futures are mildly lower as year-end profit taking continues while global equity markets were little changed overnight amid mostly quiet financial market news wires.

Economically, South Korean data was positive as Industrial Production steadied and Retail Sales beat estimates.

Looking into today’s session there are a handful of “second-tiered” economic reports including the Chicago PMI (E: 39.5), the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), and the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%) but none are likely to materially move markets.

There is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Yesterday’s short-duration Treasury auctions saw yields come off their intraday lows which appeared to weigh on stocks modestly, a dynamic that could repeat itself today.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today, however, the December FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which will likely be the most widely-followed catalyst of the day as traders assess still uncertain Fed policy rate expectations for 2026.

 

Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Year-End Window Dressing Push Stocks Higher?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Another Quiet Week, But The Labor Market Will Stay in Focus

Futures are modestly lower following a mostly quiet weekend of news and as the Trump/Zelensky meeting failed to produce material progress on peace in Ukraine.

Geopolitically, markets were hopeful that the Trump/Zelensky meeting over the weekend would yield a formal agreement, but it did not (just more “progress”) and oil prices are rising moderately (2%) in response.

Notably, gold, silver and copper are all down 2% – 4% pre-market but that’s likely due to year-end positioning.

Today the calendar is generally quiet so focus will be on any signs of geopolitical progress (Russia/Ukraine). Oil remains the best barometer for geo-political concerns and despite the bounce in oil this morning, geo-political concerns from the market remain low (despite numerous unsettled situations including Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan and, now, Venezuela).  There is also one economic report today, Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%), but that shouldn’t move markets.