Market Multiple Table Chart (Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart (Key Support and Resistance Levels to Watch)

Futures are modestly lower on rising geopolitical tensions.

Numerous reports overnight stated a U.S. attack on Iran could occur as early as this weekend, which boosted oil prices and weighed modestly on futures.

Today will be a busy day of economic data and earnings, in addition to watching any geopolitical headlines on Iran.

Economically,  the key reports today are (in order of importance) Jobless Claims (E: 225K), Philly Fed (E: 7.7) and Pending Home Sales (E: 2.5%).  We also get numerous Fed speakers including Bostic (8:20 a.m. ET), Bowman (8:30 a.m. ET), Kashkari (9:00 a.m. ET) and Goolsbee (10:30 a.m. & 2:30 p.m.  ET).

Finally, on the earnings front, the two key reports today are: DE ($1.92), and WMT ($0.73) and the stronger the results, the better for stocks.

 

February MMT: A New Threat to the Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • February MMT: New Threat to the Rally
  • Empire Manufacturing PMI Takeaways

Futures are trading tentatively higher amid easing AI-disruption angst despite soft PANW earnings yesterday (shares down ~7% today) while bonds and precious metals are steady.

Economically, U.K. CPI cooled from 3.4% to 3.0% Y/Y vs. (E) 3.0% in January while French CPI held steady at 0.3% Y/Y, meeting estimates. Both inflation prints add conviction that the global disinflation trend remains well underway.

Today, focus will be on economic data early with the delayed release of the December Durable Goods report (E: -2.3%) and December Housing Starts data (E: 1.31 million) this morning. Additionally, the as-scheduled January Industrial Production (E: 0.4%) report will be released just ahead of the opening bell.

There are no Fed speakers today however, the January FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which will be widely watched by investors looking for fresh clues on the future path of Fed policy rates.

Finally, earnings continue with releases from ADI ($2.31), GRMN ($2.39), CVNA ($1.13), KGC ($0.55), DASH ($0.58), and EBAY ($1.35) all due out today.

 

How AI Turned Into a Market Headwind

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How AI Turned Into a Market Headwind
  • Updated Market Outlook: Three “AI Problems” to Monitor
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet – The First February Data Is In Focus

Stock futures are lower with tech leading amid ongoing AI-narrative worries while bond yields are bleeding lower on global growth concerns.

Economically, U.K. Unemployment rose to a 5-year high of 5.2% vs. (E) 5.1% while German CPI held steady at 2.1%.

Looking ahead to today’s session, economic data will be in focus early with the Empire State Manufacturing Index (E: 10.0) and latest Housing Market Index (E: 38) both due to be released.

Moving into the afternoon, there are a pair of Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barr (12:45 p.m. ET) and Daly (2:30 p.m. ET) as well as a 52-Week Treasury Bill auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. The auction results could offer fresh insight on the market’s outlook for Fed policy between now and yearend and subsequently could move markets (stocks and bonds) this afternoon.

Finally, earnings season continues this week with Q4 results due from ET ($0.34), MDT ($1.33), LDOS ($2.57), and PANW ($0.49).

 

Sevens Report: Small-Cap Rally May Accelerate in 2026

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Tyler Richey says improving macro trends could fuel further gains in smaller stocks.

Most and least shorted REIT stocks with up to $2B market cap as of mid-Feb

Small-cap stocks are off to a strong start in 2026, significantly outperforming large-cap benchmarks. While the S&P 500 has hovered slightly in negative territory year to date, small-cap indexes have posted solid gains, reflecting renewed investor appetite for risk.

According to Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, the rally in smaller companies could intensify as the year progresses. With inflation trending lower, interest-rate cuts looming, and economic conditions remaining relatively stable, the macro backdrop appears increasingly supportive for small caps.

Improving financial conditions tend to benefit smaller firms disproportionately, as they are often more sensitive to borrowing costs and domestic economic growth. If expectations for monetary easing materialize, that could further strengthen the rotation into the segment.

As positioning shifts and macro conditions evolve, Sevens Report suggests small caps could remain an area of focus for investors seeking performance beyond mega-cap stocks.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Seeking Alpha on February 16th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report’s Essaye Warns Tech Investors on AI Uncertainty

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Tom Essaye says skepticism around the AI boom is rising and weakness shouldn’t be dismissed.

Tech Investors Urged to Exercise Caution

Sevens Report President Tom Essaye is cautioning technology investors as uncertainty builds around the sustainability of the artificial intelligence-driven rally that has defined the past three years.

While Essaye notes the Nasdaq has not yet fallen enough to threaten the broader market, he argues that skepticism surrounding AI is reaching levels not seen during this bull cycle. He warns against brushing off recent weakness as a routine pullback, saying there are legitimate questions emerging about whether the boom can maintain its current trajectory.

Those concerns were amplified after Cisco Systems signaled potential margin pressure tied to ongoing memory-chip shortages, sending its shares sharply lower. The reaction highlights how sensitive investors have become to signs that elevated spending and supply constraints could weigh on profitability.

In a recent note, Essaye outlined several key risks: whether companies can sustain heavy AI-related capital expenditures, how long investors will tolerate delayed earnings payoffs, whether AI could cannibalize existing tech segments, and whether infrastructure constraints — particularly around data centers — may limit growth.

Given this backdrop, Essaye suggests investors consider diversifying beyond mega-cap technology names. As volatility increases and skepticism grows, the once-dominant AI trade may face a more challenging environment than it has at any point in the current bull market.

Also, click here to view the full article published on Finance News Network on February 13th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report: Tech Can Rally, but AI Dominance Is Uncertain

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Tom Essaye says software ETF IGV must stabilize before AI fears ease.

In a Broader Rally, Tech Can Still Win—But Maybe Not Dominate

Technology stocks may continue to participate in a broader market rally, but their dominance is no longer assured, according to Sevens Report President Tom Essaye.

Essaye says growing concerns that artificial intelligence could cannibalize parts of the software industry have created the most uncertain backdrop for the AI-driven bull market in three years. He points to the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) as a key barometer, arguing that the fund must stabilize before broader confidence in AI stocks can return.

In his view, IGV holding above last week’s low is critical. Without that technical support, skepticism surrounding AI spending, earnings sustainability, and lofty valuations could intensify. Essaye cautions investors against dismissing the recent weakness as routine volatility, noting that legitimate questions are emerging about whether expectations have outpaced reality.

That said, Sevens Report does not believe the outlook for AI and tech has turned outright negative. Major technology companies are still delivering earnings growth, but elevated expectations and aggressive capital-expenditure plans leave less room for error.

For investors seeking diversification, Essaye suggests looking beyond mega-cap tech to equal-weight, value, developed international, and low-volatility strategies. While tech can still win in a broader rally, its leadership may no longer be automatic.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on February 12th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Are Equity Investors Getting Paid Enough for Their Risk?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Are Equity Investors Getting Paid Enough for Their Risk?

Futures are modestly weaker despite solid tech earnings overnight as AI anxiety is weighing on markets.

Earnings overnight were solid, highlighted by semiconductor company Applied Materials (AMAT) which best estimates and is rallying 11% pre-market.

Economically, the only notable report was EU Flash GDP which met estimates (1.3% y/y).

Today focus will be on CPI and the market needs a good report to help bolster sentiment and reinforce that rate cuts are coming later this year.  Expectations for CPI are E: 0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y and Core CPI (0.3% m/m, 2.5% y/y).  Anything below those readings, especially in Core, will be welcomed by markets.

Earnings continue as well and notable reports today include: MRNA ($-2.60), CCJ ($0.28), AAP ($0.41).

 

The Most Important ETF in the Market Right Now

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Most Important ETF in the Market Right Now
  • Is Tech Flashing a Warning Sign for the Broader Markets?
  • What to Do, Specifically, to Diversify Away from Tech

Futures are higher following a quiet night of news thanks to better than expected software earnings.

Tech earnings were mixed as CSCO (down –7%) fell on soft margins while software company Hubspot (HUBS up 7%) rallied on a solid print, bolstering software names.

Economically, UK Monthly GDP slightly missed estimates, rising 0.1% m/m vs. (E) 0.2% m/m.

Today focus will be on economic data and specifically Jobless Claims (E: 222K).  The monthly jobs report relaxed labor market anxiety and a drop in claims will further reinforce that we’re in a Goldilocks economy.  We also get Existing Home Sales (E: 4.20 million), although that shouldn’t move markets.

Earnings continue, meanwhile, with COIN ($0.99) and AMAT ($2.19) posting results today.

 

Jobs Day (A Critical Day for Markets)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Jobs Report Preview (Abbreviated Version)
  • December Retail Sales Takeaways – Consumer Spending Sputtered into Yearend

Stock futures are trading cautiously higher with focus on the delayed release of today’s January jobs report following a quiet night of news.

Economically, Chinese CPI cooled to 0.2% Y/Y vs. (E) 0.4% in January, down from 0.8% Y/Y in December, a favorably “cool” inflation print but one that is not materially impacting markets ahead of the BLS report today.

This morning, traders will be keenly focused on the tardy release of the January BLS Employment Situation Report: (E: +67K Job Adds, 4.4% UE Rate, +3.6% Wage Growth). After a swath of soft labor market reports last week, markets will want to see a solid/”Goldilocks” dataset today to ease worries about a sudden downturn in the labor market while a “too-hot” release could spark hawkish money flows and subsequent volatility in equity markets.

Looking beyond the jobs report, there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that will offer a good read on the bond market’s interpretation of the latest BLS report. Solid demand will shore up expectations for an accommodative Fed stance in 2026 and support risk assets today.

On the Fed front, there are three officials speaking today: Schmid (10:10 a.m. ET), Bowman (10:15 a.m. ET), and Hammack (4:00 p.m. ET), and markets will be looking for clues as to when the FOMC will cut rates next amid the fresh context of today’s jobs numbers.

Finally, earnings season continues with SHOP ($0.41), MCD ($3.04), TMUS ($2.03), APP ($2.89), CSCO ($0.82), and ALB ($-0.40) all due to report Q4 results today.

 

Sevens Report: U.S.-Iran Talks Leave Geopolitical Risks Elevated

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Tyler Richey says stalled negotiations keep markets on edge despite open channels.

Oil markets are on edge over elevated risks of a U.S. military strike against Iran this weekend

Geopolitical risks remain largely unchanged following the latest U.S.-Iran discussions, according to Sevens Report Research. Co-editor Tyler Richey said the talks failed to deliver progress on the core issues facing both sides, leaving tensions at roughly the same level as before the meetings.

Richey noted that while the lack of breakthroughs is disappointing, the fact that negotiations did not collapse entirely still matters for markets. Open communication channels reduce the odds of an immediate escalation, but they do not eliminate near-term risks.

With tensions still elevated, Richey said the possibility of military action cannot be dismissed, particularly over a short time horizon. That uncertainty helps explain why many traders are reluctant to hold short positions heading into the weekend, when headline risk is highest.

He added that newly announced sanctions are best viewed as incremental pressure designed to accelerate negotiations rather than a signal of imminent conflict. For now, Sevens Report believes geopolitical uncertainty will remain a background risk factor rather than a dominant market driver unless energy supplies are directly threatened.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on February 6th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.