Market Multiple Table: How High Can This Market Go?

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Market Multiple Table: How High Can Stocks Go?: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table: How High Can This Market Go?

Stock futures are modestly lower with the dollar index at a multi-year high and the 10-Yr yield holding above 4.40%, a multi-month high, as traders look ahead to the CPI report.

Economically, Japanese PPI notably jumped from 2.8% to 3.4% y/y in October which raised inflation concerns in Asian markets.

Today, trader focus will almost exclusively be on the latest U.S. inflation data due out before the bell: CPI (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.6% y/y), Core CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 3.3% y/y). A “hotter” than anticipated print will likely trigger hawkish money flows, pushing the dollar index and Treasury yields to new highs which would weigh on stocks while an as-expected or “cool” print would be well-received.

Additionally, there are several Fed speakers on the calendar who could move markets: Logan (9:45 a.m. ET),  Musalem (1:00 p.m. ET), and Schmid (1:30 p.m. ET).

Lastly, earnings season continues to slow down but a few notable companies reporting quarterly results today include: HUT (-$0.24), NU ($0.10), and CSCO ($0.87).

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Contrarian Opportunity in Chinese Tech (3 ETFs)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can Singles’ Day and Stimulus Offset Concerns in Chinese Stocks?

Futures are lower this morning as global equity markets take a breather and digest the sizeable post-election gains.

Economically, German CPI held steady at 2.0% last month while the ZEW Survey disappointed. In the U.S., the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 93.7 vs. (E) 91.7 but the solid release is having little impact on futures in pre-market trading.

There are no further economic reports today, but the Treasury will hold 3M and 6M Bill auctions at 11:30 a.m. ET that could move yields (Treasuries were closed for Veterans Day yesterday so how bonds trade this morning could move stocks).

Turning to the Fed, the speaker circuit is picking back up in the wake of last week’s FOMC meeting with several officials scheduled to speak today including: Waller (10:00 a.m. ET), Barkin (10:15 a.m. ET), Kashkari (2:00 p.m. ET), and Harker (5:00 p.m. ET).

Finally, a few notable companies reporting earnings today include: HD ($3.65), SHOP ($0.37), and OXY ($0.81). The former two could shed light on the health of the U.S. consumer and therefore have the potential to move the broader equity markets but a continued digestion, or potentially some profit taking, in the wake of the huge post-election advance before tomorrow’s CPI release is fairly likely today.

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Why the Bullish Thesis Got Stronger

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Bullish Thesis Got Stronger
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the S&P 500 Breakthrough 6,000?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: CPI on Wednesday, Important Growth Data on Thursday

Futures are modestly higher on post-election momentum and following a very quiet weekend of news.

Parts of the Trump administration are starting to come into view, most notably that Scott Bessent is looking most likely to become Treasury Secretary and the market views that as bullish.

Economically, there were no notable reports overnight.

Today is Veteran’s Day so trading should be quiet as there are no economic reports or Fed speakers, while the bond market is closed.  However, there are important updates this week on inflation (CPI on Wednesday) and growth (numerous reports on Thursday/Friday) so the week will get busier.

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What Yesterday’s Rate Cut Means for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Yesterday’s Rate Cut Means for Markets

Futures are slightly lower mostly on digestion of the week’s news and after Chinese stimulus only met expectations.

China announced a 1.4 trillion-yuan fiscal stimulus program (so government spending) although that only met expectations and is seeing a mild “sell the news” reaction.

Today the calendar is relatively quiet (especially considering what a busy week it’s been already) but there is still one notable economic release, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (E: 70.8) and, contained in that report, the One-Year Inflation Expectations (E: 2.7%).  Markets will want to see both numbers hit expectations and not be “Too Hot” (especially for inflation expectations).

We also have two Fed speakers today, Bowman (11:00 a.m. ET) and Musalem (2:30 p.m. ET), but given the Fed decision yesterday they shouldn’t move markets.

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FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview
  • EIA Data Takeaways – Oil Market Fundamentals Continue to Deteriorate

Futures are slightly higher this morning as markets are largely holding yesterday’s sizeable post-election gains with trader focus shifting to today’s Fed decision.

Economically, data was mostly solid overnight as Chinese exports jumped +12.7% y/y in October (+2.4% in September) while EU Retail Sales were inline with estimates, up 0.5% last month.

Today is lining up to be a critical day for markets as traders assess the big week-to-date gains. Early focus will be on economic data with two notable releases due before the open: Jobless Claims (E: 221K) and Productivity & Costs (E: 2.5%, 1.0%).

From there, markets are likely to turn sideways as traders position into the afternoon Fed events beginning with the FOMC Announcement at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed up by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference 2:30 p.m. ET. Anything other than the expected 25 basis point rate cut and steady forward guidance will almost certainly move markets today.

Finally, there are no big tech or major industrial earnings today but there are a few noteworthy companies due to report quarterly results today including: GOLD ($0.33), WBD ($-0.05), HAL ($0.75), SQ ($0.87), and ABNB ($2.17). However, to be clear, the Fed is the catalyst to watch today.

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Earnings across the board were disappointing

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Earnings across the board were disappointing : Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

Major earnings week weighs on tech stocks

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said it wasn’t just Big Tech weighing on equities Thursday. Earnings across the board were disappointing (looking at you, Uber, Ebay and Intercontinental Exchange), plus economic data looks like we may see higher rates for a more sustained period of time.

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on November 1st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The biggest risk for the market would be if the data come in strong anyway

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The biggest risk for the market would be if the data come in strong anyway: Tom Essaye Quoted in Market Watch

The stakes for the October jobs report are high — here’s what to expect: Sevens Report

The stakes for the latest reading from the main U.S. employment barometer are high. Although not in the way many investors might think, according to Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research.

Fallout from hurricanes that hit Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, coupled with the ongoing Boeing strike, are expected to push up the unemployment rate. Because of this, investors are already expecting a weak report, Essaye said in commentary shared with MarketWatch on Thursday.

It also means that the biggest risk for the market would be if the data come in strong anyway. Signs of a still-resilient labor market could pressure the Federal Reserve to leave its policy interest-rate target on hold next week, Essaye added.

A too-hot number could push stocks lower and Treasury yields higher as traders account for a greater likelihood of a “no landing” scenario.

“A second straight monthly jobs report above 200k and the unemployment rate dropping back below 4% will bolster the no landing expectation and push back hard on another rate cut quickly following the cut in September,” Essaye said.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on October 31st, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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It was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis

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It was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis: Tom Essaye Quoted in Blockworks

GDP estimates boost hopes for a soft landing

Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said the report “was not enough to derail the soft landing thesis by itself, but it was a step in that direction as investors will want to start seeing the decline in headline job openings slow as part of a soft landing dynamic and still-healthy labor market.”

Also, click here to view the full Blockwork article published on October 30th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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The fundamental backdrop of the oil market

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The fundamental backdrop of the oil market: Tyler Richey Quoted in Morningstar

Oil prices end higher on surprise fall in U.S. crude supply, rise in gasoline demand

“The fundamental backdrop of the oil market has become less bearish this week, but it would be a stretch to say that market dynamics are beginning to favor the bulls on any time horizon beyond a few days,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

“Concerns about a surplus emerging in the global oil market have been dialed back given the improving consumer-demand figures in [Wednesday’s] EIA report and news that OPEC+ leadership is considering postponing output cuts currently planned for December,” he told MarketWatch.

Also, click here to view the full MarketWatch article published on Morningstar on October 30th, 2024. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

Oil Inventories

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What the Trump Victory Means for Markets

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What the Trump Victory Means for Markets: Start a free trial of The Sevens Report.

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Trump Victory (and likely Republican Sweep) Means for Markets

Futures are surging more than 2% as Donald Trump soundly defeated Kamala Harris, Republicans flipped the Senate and will likely win the House of Representatives, completing the sweep and taking control of Washington.

Markets are moving sharply on the expected Republican sweep, as the Dollar Index is 1.7% higher, the 10-year Treasury yield jumps 17 bps and oil falls more than 1%.

Away from the U.S., German Manufacturers’ Orders and Euro Zone Composite PMIs were stronger than expected.

Today most of the analysis and commentary will focus on the implications of the likely Republican sweep, but there is also an important economic report out this morning: the November Flash Composite PMI (E: 54.3).  That number needs to stay Goldilocks to keep growth and Fed rate cut expectations intact (and now that the election is behind us, those growth and rate cuts will again drive markets).

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