FOMC Preview

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • FOMC Preview

Equity futures are modestly higher thanks to a steadying bond market and better than feared economic data as trader-focus shifts to the December Fed meeting which begins today (decision/press-conference tomorrow).

Looking ahead to today’s session, there was one economic report early this morning, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, which unexpectedly rose from 98.2 to 99.0 vs. (E) 98.0, and that is helping ease lingering worries about the current health of the economy.

Beyond the NFIB, we will receive one more report today: JOLTS (E: 7.2 million) shortly after the open and with uncertainty surrounding the future path of Fed policy, a surprise on the headline or details could move markets ahead of tomorrow’s Fed announcement.

There are no Fed speakers as the December meeting gets underway today, however the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 10-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET and any reaction in bonds is likely to move equity markets.

Finally, there are a handful of earnings releases today including: AZO ($32.24), CPB ($0.73), ASO ($1.00), and CASY ($4.92) and investors will be looking for continued strength, particularly from any tech-related companies.\

 

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Hassett Fed Talk Adds Fuel to Dovish Market Expectations

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Sevens Report says stocks are rising on Fed-cut hopes — but warns bond markets see real risks.

Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair isn’t automatically bullish

Stocks have extended a two-week rally as expectations for a December Fed rate cut have surged from under 50% to nearly 100%. According to the Sevens Report, that shift began with dovish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams and a run of softer labor and inflation data.

But the firm highlighted a second catalyst behind the market’s bullish rate bets: President Trump’s near-confirmation that he intends to nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve chair. Among the finalists, Hassett is viewed as the most dovish, leading investors to anticipate a more accommodative policy stance once he takes over in mid-2026.

Still, Sevens cautioned that a highly dovish chair is not an automatic positive. While stocks cheered the development, bond markets reacted in the opposite direction. The 10-year yield rose 10 basis points last week, reflecting concerns that an overly soft approach could revive inflation — echoing the stop-and-go policy mistakes of the 1970s under Arthur Burns.

Sevens emphasized that Hassett has not shown any inclination to jeopardize Fed independence, but warned that even the perception of political pressure could push Treasury markets lower and yields higher. The firm noted that maintaining the Fed’s independence is “far more important for supporting equities” than whether end-2026 policy rates land at 3.625% or 2.875%.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on December 5th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

An Important Week for Two Pillars of the Rally

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Important Week for Two Pillars of the Rally
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does Fed Policy and AI News Fuel Push Markets to New Highs?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: More Labor Market Updates (Is It Stable?)

Futures are little changed following a generally quiet weekend of news and as investors look forward to important Fed and AI events later this week.

Investor focus, as we start the week, is on Wednesday’s Fed decision, ORCL/AVGO earnings and a Chat GPT update.

Economically, foreign data was better than expected as Chinese exports beat estimates (rising 5.9% vs. (E) 4.0%) as did German Industrial Production (1.8% vs. (E) 0.1%).

This week will be a busy one but today should be relatively quiet in the markets as there are no notable economic reports and just one earnings report after the close, TOL ($4.87).

 

Sevens Report Flags Bond Market Unease Over Possible Hassett Fed Pick

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Stocks welcome dovish signals, but fixed-income markets are growing cautious.

Why Kevin Hassett’s appointment to the Fed chair isn’t automatically bullish for bonds

The Sevens Report highlights that falling rate expectations are being driven by more than just incoming data. Tom Essaye points to speculation around Kevin Hassett emerging as a leading candidate for Fed chair as a key influence behind recent market behavior.

While equities have reacted favorably to the prospect of a more dovish Fed, the bond market has responded far more defensively. Essaye notes that fixed-income investors are uneasy about the risk that an aggressively dovish chair could undermine the Fed’s credibility, potentially allowing inflation pressures to re-emerge.

That concern appears to be showing up in yields, which backed up after briefly dipping below 4%. Although Essaye stresses there is no evidence that Hassett would compromise Fed independence, uncertainty alone has been enough to inject caution into bond markets.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on November 4th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Sevens Report – Technical Targets: Santa Rally vs. Grinch Selloff

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Technical Targets: Santa Rally vs. Grinch Selloff

Futures are slightly higher mostly on momentum following a generally quiet night of news.

Japanese stocks declined 1% and gave back some of Thursday’s rally on more hawkish chatter, as a rate hike later this month remains a distinct possibility.

Economic data was mixed as Japanese Household Spending fell more than expected (-3.% vs. (E) 1.5%) while German Manufacturers’ Orders beat estimates (1.5% vs. E) 0.5%).

Today focus will be on economic data and the most important report will be the September Core PCE Price Index (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.9% y/y).  This is a delayed report from the government shutdown and it’s “old” data at this point, but it’s also the first major inflation report markets have seen in months and for this rally to continue, we’ll need to see in-line data that does not hint at any sudden rise in inflation (which could jeopardize another Fed rate cut).

Other economic reports today include Consumer Sentiment (E: 52.0) and Consumer Credit (E: $9.4B), but unless there’s a major surprise, that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair Isn’t Automatically Bullish

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair Isn’t Automatically Bullish (Hint: Bond Yields)

Futures are little changed despite more solid tech earnings and positive news for the yen carry trade.

Salesforce (CRM) posted stronger than expected results and continued the run of strong tech earnings this week.

In Japan, yen carry trade worries eased slightly after a strong 30-year JGB auction, which sent the Nikkei sharply higher (up more than 2%).

Today focus will be on labor market data via Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and Challenger Job Cuts (Last 153k).  Slightly underwhelming data will be again welcomed by markets as that will further boost rate cut chances (although very weak readings may stoke economic concerns).

Earnings also continue today and some reports to watch include: DG ($0.92), DOCU ($0.33) and HPE ($0.49).

 

Tom Essaye: Bitcoin’s Drop Shows Its High-Risk Nature

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Tom Essaye: Bitcoin’s Drop Shows Its High-Risk Nature

Bitcoin price today: BTC bounces back to $88,500 after sharp dip below $84,000

Bitcoin’s latest slide caught investors off guard, occurring just days after the cryptocurrency briefly rebounded from the $80,000 level. The move largely reflected profit-taking, thin liquidity, and broader macro uncertainty that weighed on risk assets.

“Bitcoin remains a hyper-volatile, speculative asset. It still moves in sync with risk appetite. When markets tighten, Bitcoin falls harder,” said Tom Essaye of the Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article on Businessupturn.com published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye: Markets Seek Dovish Signals Ahead of Fed Decision

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Tom Essaye: Markets Seek Dovish Signals Ahead of Fed Decision

Stocks Gain as Bitcoin Rebounds; Boeing Soars on FCF Forecast

Stocks moved higher Tuesday as bitcoin’s rebound helped lift broader risk sentiment and Boeing shares surged on improved free-cash-flow projections. Traders are also preparing for next week’s Fed decision and weighing the potential for a dovish shift under a new chair.

“Markets are looking for dovish signals via strong demand for short-duration Treasuries and fresh support for a December Fed rate cut,” wrote Tom Essaye, president of the Sevens Report, referencing Tuesday’s six-week bill auction.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance: How Prediction Markets Could Shift Crypto Trading

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Coinbase: What will a prediction market bring to the table?

Coinbase: What will a prediction market bring to the table?

Coinbase Global (COIN) is under the microscope today as Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sozzi examines the crypto exchange — which has experienced a stock hit from bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) extended sell-off — as it looks to unveil two new products: a predictions market and tokenized equity trades.

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye and Yahoo Finance senior reporters Brooke DiPalma and Ines Ferré examine the recent rise in prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Interviewed: Why a Drop Below $80K Could Trigger a Bigger Collapse for Bitcoin

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Crypto: A ‘trap door’ will open up if bitcoin falls below $80K

Crypto: A ‘trap door’ will open up if bitcoin falls below $80K

Sevens Report Research Founder Tom Essaye and Yahoo Finance senior reporters Brooke DiPalma and Ines Ferré weigh in on the state of the crypto space, coming as Bank of America is recommending that its wealth management clients should allocate 4% of their portfolios into crypto.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 2nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.