What’s Next from a Policy Standpoint

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What’s Next from a Policy Standpoint
  • Monthly Bitcoin Update

Futures are moderately higher on continued positive momentum from the “deal” announced on Greenland by President Trump on Wednesday afternoon.

There were no new geopolitical headlines overnight and that’s allowing stocks to extend the rebound as markets celebrate no new tariffs and deescalation on Greenland. Today markets will want to see no backtracking on the Greenland “deal” and continued calm in JGB yields and if we get both, stocks should hold these early gains.

Looking at the calendar, there is some notable economic data via Jobless Claims (E: 205K) and two delayed reports from the government shutdown: Final Q3 GDP (E: 4.3%) and Nov. Core PCE Price Inde (E: 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y).  However, barring a major surprise, none of those numbers should move markets.

On earnings, they’ve taken a back seat given all the geo-political drama but the season is heating up and some results we’re watching today include: PG ($1.87), GE ($1.44), FCX ($0.28), INTC (-$0.02), ABT ($1.50), ISRG ($1.83), COF ($4.12), AA ($0.84).

 

Tom Essaye Says Markets Trust The Rally’s Core Pillars Despite Political Noise

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Why Trump-Driven Selloffs Keep Becoming Buyable Dips

The TACO theory on Trump makes every ‘dip’ a buy, analyst says

“Trump is not going to willfully drive the markets or the economy into the ground. At least we hope not,” Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report Research, told Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid.

The theory has become the defining feature of Trump’s current term, Essaye argues. The administration started the year laser-focused on Venezuela and has since taken aim at credit card companies over interest rates, healthcare providers over insurance costs, and even the Federal Reserve.

“The sheer volume will test the TACO theory,” Essaye said.

Despite the noise, the underlying “four pillars” of the market rally — earnings growth, stimulus, Fed support, and the AI boom — remain largely intact. Essaye suggests that while protection is “relatively cheap” and perhaps necessary for those with no hedge, the “buy the dip” mentality shouldn’t be abandoned just yet.

“One of the most important things in investing is being able to cut out the headline noise and stay focused on the big trends,” Essaye said. He points to financials and healthcare as prime examples and some of the best trades to make right now, as these sectors often sell off 3% to 5% on a single social media post, only for the threatened regulations to never materialize.

Investors should focus on earnings, underlying economic growth, and the likelihood the Fed will cut rates in the first half of the year, Essaye said. Not to mention, “AI enthusiasm is alive and well,” he added.

Ultimately, the TACO trade relies on the belief that the president’s greatest vanity is the stock market ticker. As long as that holds true, every policy-driven dip should not be viewed as a disaster, but as a tactical entry point, per Essaye.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Yahoo Finance on January 20th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Why “JGBs” and a “Run-Hot” Economy Matter to Your Clients

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why a Spike in Japanese Bond Yields Hit Stocks
  • Implications of the Administration’s Policies: A Run-Hot Economy (and What Might Come Next)

Stock futures bounced overnight amid stabilizing global bond yields as traders digested Tuesday’s volatile start to the short trading week before Trump’s speech in Davos.

Economically, the U.K.’s December CPI report was “warm” with the headline rising +0.2% to 3.4% vs. (E) 3.3% which saw yields come off their overnight lows in pre-market trading.

There are no economic reports due to be released today and no Fed officials are scheduled to speak. However, President Trump is scheduled to deliver an address at the World Economic Forum in Davos at 8:30 a.m. ET, and any commentary on Greenland could roil markets in what has already been a volatile week.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Month Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 20-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Yesterday’s Treasury auctions saw weak demand across durations which added upside pressure to bond yields, and if we see more of the same in today’s auctions, rising yields could reignite volatility.

Finally, earnings season remains in full swing with a handful of noteworthy companies reporting today including: JNJ ($2.49), SCHW ($1.37), and KMI ($0.36).

 

What Greenland Headlines Mean for Markets

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the Greenland Headlines Mean for Markets
  • Weekly Economic Outlook – Core PCE in Focus

Global markets are “risk-off” thanks to geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Europe surrounding Greenland and a sharp rise in bond yields due to Japanese fiscal worries.

Economically, Germany’s ZEW Survey topped estimates with Economic Sentiment firming to 59.6 vs. (E) 50.0 but the data is being overshadowed by the sharp rise in JGB yields and geopolitical turmoil.

There are no economic reports today, however, the Treasury will hold auctions for 3-Month and 6-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m.

ET and 6-Week and 52-Week Bills at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong demand (dovish) should help stocks stabilize as we start the week.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today which will leave traders watching earnings closely with FITB ($1.01), MMM ($1.82), DHI ($1.96), USB ($1.19), NFLX ($0.55), IBKR ($0.51), and UAL ($2.98) all reporting Q4 results today.

 

January Market Multiple Table Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table Chart

Futures are modestly higher mostly on momentum from Thursday’s rally and following a quiet night that was devoid of any material earnings or economic data.

Oil is higher by 1% on reports the U.S. is moving military assets back into the Mid-East, implying the chances of a strike on Iran did not decrease as much as thought.

Today there are two economic reports, Industrial Production (E: 0.1%) and Housing Market Index (E: 40) as well as two Fed speakers: Bowman (11:00 a.m. ET) and Jefferson (3:30 p.m. ET), but barring a major surprise, none of that should move markets ahead of the long weekend.

Instead, focus will stay on Washington and any reports, headlines or social media posts that 1) Imply more attacks on the Fed or 2) Hint at military action in Iran, Greenland, Mexico, etc. will weigh on stocks.

Finally, on the earnings front, the week has been mostly focused on bank results and that continues this morning with several regional reports: PNC ($4.23), STT ($2.82), RF ($0.61), MTB ($4.44).

January Market Multiple Table (Rising Negative Pressure)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • January Market Multiple Table (Rising Negative Pressure on Market Influences)

Futures are modestly higher on dual de-escalation of recent Fed attacks and geopolitical tensions overnight.

President Trump stated last night he didn’t plan on firing Fed Chair Powell and downplayed the chances of a strike on Iran, de-escalating two negative market influences.

Today focus will be on economic data and earnings.  Starting with data, the key reports today include Jobless Claims (E: 212K), Philly Fed (E: -3.5) and Empire Manufacturing (E: 1.0) and stable readings that meet expectations will be the best-case scenario for stocks.  On the Fed front, there are three speakers today, Bostic (8:35 a.m. ET), Barr (9:15 a.m. ET) and Barkin (12:40 p.m. ET) and the more dovish they are, the better for markets.

Finally, turning to earnings, TSM ($2.82) already posted blow out numbers and that’s helping tech, but other reports we’re watching today include GS ($11.77), BLK ($12.41), MS ($2.41) and JBHT ($1.79).

 

Implications of Powell’s Criminal Investigation

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Implications of Powell’s Criminal Investigation
  • CPI Data Takeaways

Futures are moderately lower due to ongoing geopolitical angst and growing concerns about Japan’s fiscal situation ahead of snap elections announced for February.

Economically, Chinese trade data was strong overnight with Imports +5.7% vs. (E) -0.1% and Exports +6.6% vs. (E) +3.0%.

Today, investors will get a look at some delayed economic data from Q4’25 including PPI (E: 2.7% y/y), Core PPI (E: 2.6%), Retail Sales (E: +0.2%), and Existing Home Sales (E: 4.23 million). Investors continued to look for strong, but not “hot” growth numbers and “cool” inflation data.

There are multiple Fed officials scheduled to speak today including: Paulson (9:50 a.m. ET), Miran (10:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:00 p.m. ET), Kashkari (12:00 p.m. ET), and Williams (2:10 p.m. ET) with markets likely most focused on “Fed Independence” and any shifts in tone regarding 2026 rate cuts.

Finally, earnings season is continuing to ramp up with reports due from WFC ($1.66), C ($1.65), and BAC ($0.95) today.

 

Cutting Through the Policy Headline “Noise”

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Implications of Recent Policy Headlines
  • A Closer Look at Credit Card Limits and Defense Company Shareholder Return Policies

Futures are lower thanks to ongoing geopolitical tensions overseas and “Fed independence” concerns ahead of a key U.S. inflation report due ahead of the bell as well as the unofficial start of earnings season today.

Economically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index firmed by 0.5 points to 99.5 vs. (E) 99.4 in December which is being viewed as a modest positive this morning.

Starting with the critical pre-market catalyst, investors will be focused on the release of December CPI (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.6% y/y) and the all-important Core CPI figure (E: 0.3% m/m, 2.7% y/y). An in-line to cooler-than-expected print would be ideal for the stock market rally to continue.

Shortly after the open, the delayed November New Home Sales data (E: 714K) will be released but is not likely to move markets as the report is dated at this point.

Looking into the middle of the day, the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 30-Yr Bond auction at 1:00 p.m. ET. Strong auction results yesterday offered the market a modest tailwind, helping the S&P 500 end positive, so investors will be looking for more strong demand in today’s auctions.

With the Fed in focus amid the Trump-Powell drama from the weekend, the two Fed officials scheduled to speak today: Musalem (10:00 a.m. ET) and Barkin (4:00 p.m. ET) will likely be closely watched for any commentary regarding “Fed Independence.”

Finally, today marks the unofficial start to Q4’25 earnings season with quarterly results due from JPM ($5.01), DAL ($1.53), and BK ($1.97) and with rather optimistic earnings/revenue estimates for 2026, investors will be looking for strong results to support the equity rally.

 

The Situation in Venezuela is Actually Bullish for Prices – Tyler Richey Quoted in MarketWatch

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The near-term impact of the situation in Venezuela is actually bullish for prices from a supply standpoint says Tyler Richey

Oil prices end 3% higher for the week as Venezuela looks to run out of storage capacity

The near-term impact of the situation in Venezuela is actually bullish for prices from a supply standpoint, as its state-owned PDVSA has reportedly shut down an unknown amount of oil-well production due to a lack of sufficient physical oil storage and still largely locked-down port operations, said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

Oil prices Friday also found support from unrest in Iran and Israeli threats of potential military strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure, which would impact supplies, said Richey.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on January 10th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • How Much Uncertainty Can Markets Withstand?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Treasury Yields Remain Stable? (CPI, Possible SCOTUS decision, Fed concerns)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Inflation in Focus This Week

Futures are moderately lower following the announcement of a federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell.

On Sunday night the government confirmed it had opened a criminal investigation focused on Fed Chair Powell and the construction of the Fed’s new headquarters.  The net impact of the news is to further pressure Fed independence and that is why futures are declining moderately.

There were no notable economic reports overnight.

Today there are no economic reports so focus will be on Washington, first via more details of the criminal investigation into Fed Chair Powell and then on a potential Supreme Court IEEPA tariff decision.  Regarding the Fed, any news that further raises concerns about the loss of Fed independence will send Treasury yields higher and stocks lower.

There are also three Fed speakers today, Barkin (8:00 a.m. ET), Bostic (12:30 a.m. ET) and Williams (6:00 p.m. ET) and any dovish commentary from the three should help support markets (Williams is the most important speaker today).