Why the Strait of Hormuz Problem Likely Isn’t Solved Yet

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Why the Strait of Hormuz Problem Likely Isn’t Solved Yet
  • Jobs Report Preview (Economic Data Is Key for this Market)

Futures are flat as there were no new significant headlines from Iran overnight while tech earnings beat estimates.

Geopolitically, investors are focused on when transit resumes through the Strait of Hormuz and there was no new news overnight.

Broadcom (AVGO) beat earnings and that’s helping to further fuel a tech rebound.

Focus today will remain on geopolitical headlines and any progress towards a cease-fire or increased transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be a positive for stocks.

Away from geopolitics, there are two notable economic reports today, Challenger Layoffs (Last: 108k) and Jobless Claims (E: 215K).  The stronger these numbers, the better, as they reinforce growth is solid (and that’s an important support for this market).

Finally, there is one Fed speaker, Bowman (1:15 p.m. ET) and some notable earnings:  MRVL ($0.62), COST ($4.55), IOT ($-0.01).

 

Defensive Playbook (Three Places to “Hide”)

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Defensive Playbook for a Protracted Geopolitical Conflict (and Higher Oil Prices)
  • Is Apple a Potential Hedge for AI-Disruption and Geopolitical Uncertainty?

U.S. futures are enjoying a modest relief rally along with EU stocks while risk-off money flows continued to grip Asian equities overnight after yesterday’s volatile session on Wall Street.

Economically, China’s February Composite PMI came in “hot” with the Services Index jumping to 56.7 vs. (E) 52.3 while the final EU Composite PMI rose to 51.9 vs. (E) 51.8. Additionally, EU Unemployment edged down while headline PPI jumped well above expectations in January which is contributing to today’s rise in global yields.

Today kicks off February “jobs week” with the February ADP Employment Report (E: 43K) due out before the open while one of the more important economic data points of the week, the ISM Services PMI (E: 52.3) will be released shortly after the bell.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however, there is a 4-Month Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could move short-term interest rates and subsequently impact equity markets in mid-day trade.

Finally, Q4 earnings continue to trickle in with a few noteworthy companies reporting results today: ANF ($3.56), AVGO ($1.67), and OKTA ($0.29). AVGO being a critical AI stock will be the most important release to watch.

 

The Key Geopolitical Variable to Watch

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • The Key Variable to Watch in the U.S.-Iran Conflict
  • ISM Manufacturing Index Takeaways

S&P 500 futures fell to fresh YTD lows in pre-market trade, oil prices surged, and yields jumped following an Iranian drone attack on the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Economically, the EU’s Narrow Core HICP Flash figure for February spiked to 2.4% vs. (E) 2.2% which stoked inflation fears and introduced market risks of potential ECB rate hikes in 2026.

Today, there is one second-tiered economic report to watch: Motor Vehicle Sales (E: 15.3 million) and the Treasury will hold a 6-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET that could impact Treasury yields and carryover to equity market money flows.

Additionally, there are three Fed speakers today with Williams (9:55 a.m. ET), Schmid (10:10 a.m. ET), and Kashkari (11:55 a.m. ET) all due to deliver comments.

Finally, there are a handful of noteworthy earnings releases to watch today: TGT ($2.17), BBY ($2.48), CRWD ($0.20), however the corporate results are likely to take a backseat to geopolitics until tensions between the U.S. and Iran begin to subside.

 

What the U.S./Iran Conflict Means for Markets

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What the U.S./Iran Conflict Means for Markets
  • Weekly Market Preview: Does the Conflict Stay Contained?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: An Important Week for Growth (Jobs Report on Friday)

Futures are moderately lower on geopolitical concerns following the U.S./Israeli attack on Iran over the weekend.

Oil (up 7%) and gold (up 3%) are sharply higher and global stocks are lower as markets price in greater geopolitical risk.  But, the moves are in line with expectations (so no worse than feared).

Economically, the UK Manufacturing PMI slightly missed estimates (51.7 vs. 52.0) while the EU reading met forecasts (52.0) but neither number is moving markets.

Today focus will be on geopolitics and specifically whether the U.S./Iran conflict widens.  If the conflict does start to widen (and bring in other countries and expand the number of combatants on both sides) that will be an incremental market negative.

Away from geopolitics, this is an important week for economic data and the first key report comes today via the ISM Manufacturing PMI (E: 51.8).  Simply put, the stronger this number, the better as markets need solid growth more right now than they need a sooner than expected rate cut.

 

Sevens Report: AI Optimism Is Giving Way to Existential Fears

/in , /by

Tom Essaye says investors now worry AI could undermine entire business models.

Big Moves Have Rocked Stocks. There Might Be More to Come.

Yet “now investors fear it’ll go too far,” as Sevens Report President Tom Essaye writes. “Put simply, the concern now is that AI will boost productivity so much that it won’t just lead to reduced head count, it will lead to the elimination of the entire company and business!”

“AI spending is damaging the financial footing of the biggest tech companies in the markets and with no end to the spending in sight, this is making investors nervous that free cash flow from these companies will be depressed for years, all on the massive bet that AI is widely and aggressively adopted by the population,” writes Essaye. And don’t forget the rapidly growing Chinese competition.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on February 25th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

What is the “Smart Market” Telling Investors Right Now?

/in , /by

What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What is the “Smart Market” Telling Investors Right Now?

Futures are modestly weaker on mixed tech earnings.

There were beats (DELL, ADSK) but also plenty of misses (CRWV, INTU) and the net result of the earnings is that they did not reduce AI disruption fears.

Economic data was mixed as Japanese Retail Sales beat estimates while Industrial Production missed.  In Germany, both the Unemployment Rate and CPI met expectations.

Today focus will be on inflation via the delayed January PPI report and expectations are as follows: 0.3% m/m, 2.8% y/y.  A better than expected number will help push back against sticky inflation fears and help support markets.

Other events today include two more economic reports, Chicago PMI (E: 52.5) and Construction Spending (E: 0.3%) and some earnings, UUUU ($-0.07), GSAT ($0.01), SQM ($0.75), but they shouldn’t move markets.

 

Tom Essaye Talks About The Legitimacy of These AI Fears with Yahoo Finance

/in , /by

Tom Essaye Talks About The Legitimacy of These AI Fears with Yahoo Finance

AI scare: Citrini’s report is just a ‘thought experiment’ for now

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye, Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre, and Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré assess the legitimacy of these AI fears as disruptions ripple across the software landscape. IBM (IBM) shares dropped yesterday while Wall Street investors adjust their price targets on Workday (WDAY).

So the whole AI enthusiasm, AI bull market has been driven on the idea that AI is going to make companies much more productive, right? Which means better margins and more earnings. But now, the thought is going beyond that. It’s saying, wait, it’s going to become so productive that we’re actually not even going to need all of these industries. And there won’t be jobs for people.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on February 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Explains Tariff Uncertainty Live With Yahoo Finance

/in , /by

Tom Essaye explains what the tariff uncertainty means for companies, consumers, and markets with Yahoo Finance

FedEx is latest company to sue Trump admin. for tariff refunds

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye joins the live show with Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre and Yahoo Finance Senior Markets Reporter Ines Ferré to break down what the tariff uncertainty means for companies, consumers, and markets.

I don’t think it’s going to impact markets. Look, in the short term, the tariff chaos is just adding to the general uncertainty that AI anxiety has brought on the markets.

Here’s the key about tariffs. The markets are not worried that the Trump administration is going to do something so, for lack of a better word, dumb that it’s going to hurt the economy on trade. Trump and the administration have backed off numerous times. The market continues to think they will. The refund thing is going to be a mess for years. The lawyers are going to be the biggest winners from that, not the consumers. I don’t think tariffs are a major issue for this market.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on February 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Talks About Gold vs. Bitcoin With Yahoo Finance

/in , /by

Tom Essaye Talks About Gold vs. Bitcoin With Yahoo Finance

Gold vs. bitcoin: Which asset should investors be buying?

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye, Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Ines Ferré, and Yahoo Finance Markets and Data Editor Jared Blikre examine gold and bitcoin’s past performances amid volatile periods.

So, if I had to buy something today, I would be buying Bitcoin, although I would be doing it knowing that I’m probably not buying the bottom. I think Jared’s right. I mean that there is no fundamental bottom for Bitcoin, right? I mean, there’s no earnings or discounted cash flow we can look at. So it’s just at what point does sentiment become washed out and people think there’s enough value to step in.

However, the reason I prefer Bitcoin today over gold is because every month in the Seven’s report, we do a Bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry update. And the amount of fundamental use of of large players that are that are integrating into cryptocurrencies that are buying Bitcoin to hold on their treasury stock. It’s it’s becoming more and more mainstream and it’s not an exciting event. It’s not going to create headlines. Even you guys announcing this morning, your partnership with Coinbase. This is in the the the sort of financial mainstream now. And so I think that that creates fundamental demand that over time will create a bullish thesis. Now, it doesn’t mean it can’t go down to 40,000 in the short term. We all know how Bitcoin trades, but I think as I look out, I’d rather be buying buying Bitcoin down at these levels than necessarily chasing gold above 5,000.

Also, click here to view the full video published on Yahoo Finance on February 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Tom Essaye Quoted in Barron’s discussing AI Anxiety

/in , /by

 The report is nothing new for a market that has been gripped with AI anxiety

The Dow Falls 800 Points. Wall Street Is Worried AI Could Be Bad for Financial and Discretionary Stocks, Too.

Sevens Report Research’s Tom Essaye told Barron’s that the report is nothing new for a market that has been gripped with AI anxiety in recent weeks.

“Importantly, I don’t think anything new has occurred that is negative,” Essaye says. “It just seems to be the market focusing on the same narrative from two weeks ago. So while that’s not gonna make a difference today – nothing new and bad has occurred.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Barron’s on February 24th, 2026. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.