Oil Supply Surplus Concerns Pull Prices Down Says Tyler Richey

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Concerns over a supply surplus help pull oil prices to their lowest in 3 weeks

A monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries released Wednesday revealed a “fresh jolt of supporting evidence that the market is already in a physical surplus dynamic that is poised to worsen into 2026,” said Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research.

That comes as “global production is trending higher while demand growth is flattening out,” he said.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on November 13th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

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Can the Rest of the Market Rally If Tech Is Weak?

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Can the Rest of the Market Rally If Tech is Weak?
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can AI Enthusiasm Rebound? (NVDA Earnings on Wednesday Are Key)
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: The First Look at November Data (Flash PMIs on Friday)

Futures are moderately higher mostly on momentum from Friday’s rebound and following a quiet weekend of news.

On trade, there was positive news as the White House confirmed reduced tariffs on numerous food products as it aims to boost affordability.

Economically, the only notable report was Italian CPI which rose 1.3%, as expected.

Today we have the first economic report for November, Empire Manufacturing (6.10), and numerous Fed speakers.  Williams (9:00 a.m. ET) and Waller (3:35 p.m. ET) are the most important speakers today but we will also hear from Jefferson (9:30 a.m. ET), Kashkari (1:00 p.m. ET) and Logan (7:55 p.m. ET).  Bottom line, if Empire manufacturing is stable and the tone of Fed speak today is open to a December cut (especially from Williams and Waller) that should help extend Friday’s rebound.

 

Monthly Bitcoin Update & Outlook

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Monthly Bitcoin Update & Outlook

Futures are moderately lower as markets extend Thursday’s selloff mostly on momentum and following some underwhelming economic data.

Chinese economic data was mixed as retail sales (2.9% vs. (E) 2.7%) beat estimates while Industrial Production (4.9% vs. (E) 5.5%) and Fixed Asset Investment (-1.7% vs. (E) 0.9%) missed expectations.

Today there are no notable economic reports but there are three Fed speakers: Schmid (10:05 a.m. ET), Logan (2:30 p.m. ET) and Bostic (9:20 a.m. ET, 3:20 p.m. ET).  If they’re tone is hawkish towards a December rate cut (as the commentary has been this week from multiple Fed officials) that will further pressure stocks.

 

What Caused the Government Shutdown (And Why That’s Important to Markets)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • What Caused the Government Shutdown (And Why That’s Important to Markets)

Futures are slightly lower despite strong CSCO earnings and the government officially reopening.

CSCO posted solid results and the stock is up 6% pre-market but the recent AI skepticism remains in place and the earnings aren’t keying a broader rally.

Politically, the government shutdown officially ended, removing what was an increasing economic headwind.

There are no economic reports today (now that the government is reopened, we will await a new schedule of backlogged releases) but there are several Fed speakers:  Daly (8:00 a.m. ET), Kashkari (10:30 a.m. ET), Musalem (12:15 p.m. ET) and Hammack (12:20 p.m. ET).  If their commentary further pushes back on expectations for a December rate cut, that will pressure stocks.

 

November MMT Chart

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • November MMT Chart
  • Weekly ADP Jobs Report Takeaways

Futures are higher as traders anticipate a successful House vote to reopen the government today with tech shares leading after AMD’s well-received “analyst-day” (stock up ~5% pre-market).

Economically, German CPI met estimates at 2.3% y/y in October which is helping ease worries about a resurgence in inflation.

There are no notable economic reports in the U.S. today but there is a 10-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could move yields and impact equities and other risk assets.

Additionally, there are a handful of Fed speakers today including: Williams (9:20 a.m. ET), Paulson (10:00 a.m. ET), Waller (10:20 a.m. ET), and Bostic (12:15 p.m. ET.); the more dovish the tone (without sounding too cautious on the economy) the better for stocks right now.

Finally, earnings season continues with notable companies reporting today including CSCO ($0.80) and CRCL ($0.17), and the stronger the results, the better for the bull case for stocks here.

New Sevens Report Special Report Released Today: How Bad Is the U.S. Debt Situation?

The latest Sevens Report Special Report, “How Bad is the U.S. Debt Situation,” is now available for download from the www.sevensreport.com website.

Those who have pre-ordered the Report were sent download instructions when they ordered and they will be re-sent later this morning, just to be thorough.

Like previous Sevens Report Special Reports, this report will both be branded as Sevens Report Research and as a “white labeled” version, allowing you to brand this robust and in-depth report as your own using your firm’s logo and other marketing materials. Both versions are included with a purchase.

To learn more or to order this special report, please click this link.

 

Shutdown’s End Brings Key Economic Data Back Into Focus, Says Sevens Report

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Shutdown’s End Brings Key Economic Data Back Into Focus, Says Sevens Report

US Stocks Gain as Dip Buyers, Hopes of Shutdown End Drive Rally

With an end to the record-breaking government shutdown in sight, traders are preparing for the return of key economic data releases. Over the past week, investors relied heavily on private reports, which suggested a softening labor market.

Official government data is expected to soon provide clearer insights into employment, inflation, and the broader outlook for interest rates.

“With the shutdown ending this week, it’s unclear at this point how quickly economic data will ‘catch up,’ but the fact that we will be getting key economic reports is a general positive for markets,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report.

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on November 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

AI Stocks Lead Market Selloff, but Sevens Report Says “Nothing’s Gone Wrong”

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AI Stocks Lead Market Selloff, but Sevens Report Says “Nothing’s Gone Wrong”

Is the entire AI-driven rally suddenly at stake?

The Nasdaq suffered its worst week since April, falling 3% as mega-cap tech and AI-linked names led the decline. But according to Sevens Report Research, “nothing new” has gone wrong with the AI story.

The firm said the pullback reflects investors confronting “the tectonic gap between the amount of money being spent to build out AI capacity…and the paltry amount of revenue that AI is generating.”

That concern was highlighted when Apple reportedly agreed to pay Google only $1 billion to use its Gemini model in an AI-powered Siri — far less than AI bulls had hoped. “It reinforces the view that AI [is] not really being ‘worth’ that much to the end user,” Sevens noted.

Other developments, including Oracle’s heavy AI infrastructure spending and Meta’s post-earnings drop, fueled additional worries.

Still, Sevens emphasized that “nothing has occurred that makes us think the entire AI-driven rally is suddenly at stake.” The firm called the recent weakness a “sobering moment” rather than the start of a collapse, adding that without AI enthusiasm and capital spending, both the market rally and U.S. economic growth “would be much, much smaller.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Investing.com on November 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

November Market Multiple Table

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Market Multiple Table – November Update

Futures are moderately lower with big tech underperforming after yesterday’s largest one day gain in months as traders assess the prospects of the government reopening.

Economically, the German ZEW Survey’s Current Conditions rose to -78.7 vs. (E) -78.0 and the U.K. Unemployment Rate rose to 5.0% vs. (E) 4.9%. Domestically, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell to 98.2 vs. (E) 98.3.

Looking ahead to today’s session, investors are likely going to be focused on Washington and the next steps in the process for the federal government to reopen in the days ahead however there is also one (new) economic report due out ahead of the bell: The ADP Weekly Employment Change (8:15 a.m. ET) and one Fed officials scheduled to speak: Barr (10:25 a.m. ET).

With just two noteworthy earnings releases due out today: SE ($0.75) and OKLO ($-0.13) it is likely to be a mostly quiet session as traders await clarity on the status of the government reopening process with the potential for a modest pullback after yesterday’s big rally.

 

S&P 500 Nears Key 50-Day Moving Average After Global Selloff

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Tom Essaye of Sevens Report flags 6,665 as the next critical support level.

As the stock market wobbles, this is the key level to watch for the S&P 500

U.S. stocks remained under pressure in premarket trading Friday as global markets sold off across Europe and Asia. With investors questioning how much further the market could fall, Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye pointed to the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average — currently at 6,665.75 — as the next key level to watch.

The index closed at 6,720.32 on Thursday, according to FactSet data. Notably, the S&P 500 hasn’t closed below its 50-day moving average in 132 trading sessions — the longest such streak since February 2007, Dow Jones Market Data reported.

Also, click here to view the full article published in MarketWatch on November 7th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

Bearish Bitcoin Forecasts Flag $70K as Key Support Level

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Analysts warn of a potential drop to $55K–$57K in a severe macro downturn.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2025 2026 2027 – 2030

The most cautious credible forecasts see Bitcoin falling to the $70K–$75K range if key support fails, with a worst-case scenario targeting $55K–$57K during a major macro sell-off. Analysts including Tyler Richey of Sevens Report and 10X Research identify these zones as critical downside markers. Veteran trader Peter Brandt assigns about a 25% chance to such a pullback but notes that a sharp correction could ultimately lay the groundwork for a stronger bullish recovery.

Also, click here to view the full article on Troymedia.com published on November 10th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.