Investor Sentiment Update (Not as Bullish as One Would Think)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Sentiment Update: Not Nearly as Bullish as One Would Think
  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index – An Upside Surprise
  • December FOMC Meeting Takeaways

U.S. futures are lower along with global markets after a mostly quiet night of news as the solid 2025 stock market advance continues to be digested into year-end.

Economically, China’s CFLP Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in December from 49.5 in November vs. (E) 49.7 but the strong data print failed to generate any market enthusiasm overnight.

Today, there is one final noteworthy economic report before the end of the year: Jobless Claims (E: 218K) and investors will be looking for a Goldilocks print to shore up soft-landing expectations.

Additionally, the Treasury will hold auctions for 4-Week, 8-Week and 4-Month Bills at 11:30 a.m. ET and markets will want to see healthy demand to support dovish Fed policy expectations for 2026.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today and the bond market will close early (2:00 p.m. ET) ahead of the New Years Holiday as markets cap off another solid year of stock market returns.

 

Tom Essaye Interviewed on Yahoo Finance To Discuss The AI Trade

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Yahoo Finance Interview

Why the AI trade could change in 2026

Artificial intelligence will continue to be a key pillar of market gains in 2026. We speak with Sevens Report research founder Tom Essaye, Epistrophy Capital Research Chief Market Strategist Cory Johnson, and TECHnalysis Research, LLC President Bob O’Donnell about the AI trade and what to expect in 2026.

Also, click here to view the full video preview published on YouTube.com on December 29th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

The Value of International Investing Revisited

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • An Interesting Table to Show Clients: The Value of International Diversification
  • Don’t Dismiss Tax-Loss Harvesting This Year

Stock futures are mildly lower as year-end profit taking continues while global equity markets were little changed overnight amid mostly quiet financial market news wires.

Economically, South Korean data was positive as Industrial Production steadied and Retail Sales beat estimates.

Looking into today’s session there are a handful of “second-tiered” economic reports including the Chicago PMI (E: 39.5), the Case-Shiller Home Price Index (E: 1.1%), and the FHFA House Price Index (E: 0.1%) but none are likely to materially move markets.

There is a 6-Week Treasury Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET. Yesterday’s short-duration Treasury auctions saw yields come off their intraday lows which appeared to weigh on stocks modestly, a dynamic that could repeat itself today.

Finally, there are no Fed speakers today, however, the December FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 2:00 p.m. ET which will likely be the most widely-followed catalyst of the day as traders assess still uncertain Fed policy rate expectations for 2026.

 

Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Taking Stock of the Four Pillars of the Rally Ahead of 2026
  • Weekly Market Preview: Can Year-End Window Dressing Push Stocks Higher?
  • Weekly Economic Cheat Sheet: Another Quiet Week, But The Labor Market Will Stay in Focus

Futures are modestly lower following a mostly quiet weekend of news and as the Trump/Zelensky meeting failed to produce material progress on peace in Ukraine.

Geopolitically, markets were hopeful that the Trump/Zelensky meeting over the weekend would yield a formal agreement, but it did not (just more “progress”) and oil prices are rising moderately (2%) in response.

Notably, gold, silver and copper are all down 2% – 4% pre-market but that’s likely due to year-end positioning.

Today the calendar is generally quiet so focus will be on any signs of geopolitical progress (Russia/Ukraine). Oil remains the best barometer for geo-political concerns and despite the bounce in oil this morning, geo-political concerns from the market remain low (despite numerous unsettled situations including Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan and, now, Venezuela).  There is also one economic report today, Pending Home Sales (E: 0.9%), but that shouldn’t move markets.

 

Investors Are Pricing in a Soft Economic Landing – Tom Essaye Quoted in Bloomberg

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Tom Essaye says equities have room to run amid earnings growth optimism.

Stocks Close at Record, Nudged Higher as Cook Buys Nike Shares

“Investors are pricing in a soft economic landing with conviction as we approach the year-end,” said Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report. He said that “equities have room to run amid optimism surrounding the potential for strong earnings growth in the quarters to come.”

Also, click here to view the full article published in Bloomberg on December 24th, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • A Historical Look at Bubbles (Chart)

Futures are little changed in quiet trading following the Christmas holiday, as most European markets are closed for St. Steven’s Day.

There was no notable foreign economic out overnight.

On AI, Nvidia announced a partnership with AI Groq that is being positive received by markets (and boosting AI Enthusiasm).

Today should be a quiet trading day barring any geopolitical surprises as there are no economic reports, no meaningful earnings nor any Fed speak.

Hard vs. Soft Data: A Growing Economic Disconnect

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • Hard vs. Soft Data: A Growing Economic Disconnect
  • Durable Goods and GDP Data Takeaways

U.S. equity futures are modestly lower in thin holiday trade as this week’s market advance to fresh all time highs is digested amid mostly quiet newswires.

Economically, Taiwan Industrial Production rose 16.42% in November, up from 14.5% in October but the data is having a limited impact on markets this morning.

Today, there is one noteworthy economic release ahead of the bell: Jobless Claims (E: 225K) and markets will be looking for ongoing resilience in the labor market via a steady to lower than expected headline print to help shore up soft landing hopes.

The Treasury will hold a 4-Week and 8-Week Bill auction at 11:30 a.m. ET and a 7-Yr Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET, and as has been the case recently, the stronger the demand the better.

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today and no noteworthy earnings releases which will result in a likely quiet holiday trading session with the NYSE closing early at 1:00 p.m. ET.

 

Sevens Report: December Strength Usually Comes Late in the Month

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History shows early December choppiness often gives way to a strong year-end rally.

12/22/2025 ValuEngine Weekly Market Summary & Commentary

Seasonal reversals like the one seen this November are far from unusual, according to Sevens Report Research. Analysis from Sevens Report shows that in more than 70% of Decembers since 1950, markets have experienced a weak or choppy first half followed by stronger gains into year-end.

December remains one of the market’s most reliable months overall. The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% return over the past 75 years and finished higher nearly three-quarters of the time, giving it the highest historical win rate of any month. However, Sevens notes that most of those gains typically come late.

Returns through the tenth-to-last trading day of December average just 0.1%, meaning the bulk of the month’s upside historically occurs during the final two weeks, coinciding with the Santa Claus rally. Data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac confirms a similar pattern.

Given these persistent seasonal trends, Sevens Report Research continues to favor maintaining exposure to large-cap and technology stocks into the end of the year.

Also, click here to view the full article on TheGlobeAndMail.com published on December 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.

New ETFs for Your Watchlist (November Launches)

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What’s in Today’s Report:

  • New ETFs for Your Watchlist (November Launches)

U.S. futures are flat while overseas equity markets were little changed overnight amid mostly quiet newswires and thinning attendance ahead of the Christmas holiday with focus on the slew of U.S. economic data due out today.

There were no noteworthy economic reports overnight and limited market moving headlines.

Looking ahead to today’s session, focus will be on the long list of economic reports due to be released in the U.S., including Durable Goods Orders (E: -1.5%), Q3 GDP (E: 3.2%), Industrial Production (E: 0.1%), Consumer Confidence (E: 91.9), and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (E: -7.0).

There are no Fed officials scheduled to speak today, however there is a 5-Yr Treasury Note auction at 1:00 p.m. ET that could shed light on investors’ outlook for Fed policy (the stronger the demand, the better).

Bottom line, with thinning attendance and light volumes given the holiday trading week, markets are likely to remain quiet today, however, if economic data meaningfully misses expectations and weighs on growth expectations, a decent pullback could easily occur.

 

Sevens Report Q4 ’25 Quarterly Letter Coming Next Friday  

It was another strong year for stocks, but it will be a different environment as we start 2026 with 1) Concerns about an AI bubble rising, 2) The Fed rate-cutting cycle potentially ending and 3) The unemployment rate hitting a multi-year high.

Those are factors that could make 2026 more volatile than expected and we will address those risks (and celebrate 2025’s strong performance) in the upcoming Q4 Sevens Report Quarterly Letter).

The letter will be delivered to subscribers next Friday, January 2nd. 

The Sevens Report Quarterly Letter is a turnkey client communications solution. We use our strength (writing about the markets) to help you:

  • Save time (an average of 4-6 hours per quarterly letter)
  • Show you’re on top of markets with impressive, compelling market analysis and
  • Strengthen client relationships with little-to-no work from you!

You can view our Q3 ’25 Quarterly Letter here.

To learn more about the product (including price), please click this link and if you’re interested in subscribing, please email info@sevensreport.com.

 

Sevens Report: AI Trade to Split as Winners and Losers Emerge

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Tom Essaye tells Yahoo Finance the next phase of the AI trade will show sharp performance separation within the Mag 7, with Alphabet his top pick.

Breaking out the ‘selective scalpel’: Wall Street sees AI stock trade as intact

Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye told Yahoo Finance he expects to see winners and losers within the group heading into next year.

“I think we’re going to see some pretty massive bifurcation,” Essaye said.” The next evolution of this trade, where there are going to be winners and losers within the Mag 7.”

He said that his favorite stock is Alphabet because of the growth prospects for Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence product.

“I think companies like Oracle that are not overextended financially, but are sort of raising eyebrows with a lot of the spending that AI, I think that companies like that could struggle,” he added.

Also, click here to view the full interview on Yahoo Finance published on December 22nd, 2025. However, to see the Sevens Report’s full comments on the current market environment sign up here.

If you want research that comes with no long term commitment, yet provides independent, value added, plain English analysis of complex macro topics, then begin your Sevens Report subscription today by clicking here.

To strengthen your market knowledge take a free trial of The Sevens Report.

Join hundreds of advisors from huge brokerage firms like Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Advisors, Raymond James, and more! To start your quarterly subscription and see how The Sevens Report can help you grow your business, click here.